A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

Wow! I asked the question a few weeks ago if the Red Sox bats could keep up the pace to make up for the starting pitching, and the short answer is a Big no. Dugy has hit 1 HR in May, which was May 1st, and has 2 RBI in May. I guess those Mookie who comments were a little premature. Duran is on a 1-19 skid, and heading back to his old self with the bat. I said the other day that Duran hasn’t been guaranteed to keep the FT CF job when someone said when Duvall came back he may be a platoon player. He may, but then again not so fast on that notion. Casas is still kind of floundering around looking for walks first instead of hits, and Kike hasn’t been much with the bat either. Raffy while his power productions looks good, but even he has had more nights than not that he hasn’t done much either. The offense isn’t this bad, but I don’t think it is as good as it had been early in the season.Where things go from here time will tell, but the Yankees are pulling further ahead of them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox are the greatest last place team (tied with Toronto) in the history of the ALeast, then the Yanks have to be the best third place team in the history of this month. New York is now three games better than the next-best third-place team -- the Angels (closing fast, blanking Boston).

 

Don't worry -- Sox' bats will break out bigly next month when they get to face the dredges of the NL -- the Reds and Rockies (interspersed around series with Tampa, Cleveland and NY, NY... I gotta wear shades).

[Bellhorn04]

Pitching improves as offense disappears.

 

This game will drive you to drink.

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi still en fuego. Pitching like one of the best in the game. $34 mill was out of range for our thrifty Sox, though.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi still en fuego. Pitching like one of the best in the game. $34 mill was out of range for our thrifty Sox, though.

 

They did offer him a QO. Let's see how that second year plays out (and the rest of this one, too.)

 

It's easy to find "what ifs" all day long. I've wanted to add at the top of the rotation for years, but I just did not see anyone on the market with real good odd at coming even close to earning his pay. Kinda knew some would, but how to pick that very few "some" is the hard part, and the part we get wrong more often than right, when it comes to starters.

[moonslav59]

Pitching improves as offense disappears.

 

This game will drive you to drink.

 

It does seem to go hand in hand more often than randomness would suggest it might.

[Bellhorn04]

They did offer him a QO. Let's see how that second year plays out (and the rest of this one, too.)

 

It's easy to find "what ifs" all day long. I've wanted to add at the top of the rotation for years, but I just did not see anyone on the market with real good odd at coming even close to earning his pay. Kinda knew some would, but how to pick that very few "some" is the hard part, and the part we get wrong more often than right, when it comes to starters.

 

Of course pitchers are heavily laden with risk in general.

 

That's not going to absolve Bloom from making Kluber, a guy who can't hit 90 on the radar gun, his big acquisition for the rotation. It's still rather baffling that's the best we could do.

[Bellhorn04]

Grim reality is, we've played better than a lot of us expected, but we're 2.5 games out of the playoffs, and none of the teams in front of us are easy pickings.

[Bellhorn04]

And it's only natural to look at some of the moves that could have been made to improve our chances over what they are right now. Henry and Bloom must know that an 85 win season and out of the playoffs isn't going to be enough to placate the fans.

[Hugh2]

Eovaldi still en fuego. Pitching like one of the best in the game. $34 mill was out of range for our thrifty Sox, though.

 

Yeah, I don't think this is one of those situations where we can get upset at the Sox for being too "thrifty" for Nathan Eovaldi.

[notin]

And it's only natural to look at some of the moves that could have been made to improve our chances over what they are right now. Henry and Bloom must know that an 85 win season and out of the playoffs isn't going to be enough to placate the fans.

 

 

It’s weird.

 

Two months ago, players like Valdez, Winckowski, Wong were failed acquisitions with no MLB future. Then, as it turns out, they actually do have baseball skills. And throw in the out-of-nowhere emergence of Duran, and a surprisingly tough early schedule, and this team looks good.

 

But have 3 bad games and focus on the hot streaks of departed players and suddenly the goal was clearly 85 wins and save money…

[notin]

Eovaldi still en fuego. Pitching like one of the best in the game. $34 mill was out of range for our thrifty Sox, though.

 

Yeah because Eovaldi carries absolutely no other risks at all…

[Hugh2]

Yeah because Eovaldi carries absolutely no other risks at all…

 

I was chastiszed around here for suggesting the Sox even offer Nate (and Wacha too) a Q.O. Wacha probably would have accepted though, which....given the cap space and the Kluber situation would look pretty damn good right about now.

 

No one wanted Nate around here last year. His arm looked like it was falling off. Bloom would have been chastized all winter if he resigned Nate to that contract.

[Old Red]

Of course pitchers are heavily laden with risk in general.

 

That's not going to absolve Bloom from making Kluber, a guy who can't hit 90 on the radar gun, his big acquisition for the rotation. It's still rather baffling that's the best we could do.

 

I’m sure the Red Sox will pick up the club option for $11M next year. What a bargain!

[moonslav59]

Of course pitchers are heavily laden with risk in general.

 

That's not going to absolve Bloom from making Kluber, a guy who can't hit 90 on the radar gun, his big acquisition for the rotation. It's still rather baffling that's the best we could do.

 

I agree. This is on Bloom. No budget "what ifs," on the Kluber choice.

 

He could have spent more on pitching. He could have traded for one of the pretty good pitchers trades, this past winter. He chose to spend on the pen (good) and maybe too much on the offense.

 

He may "absolve" himself, if we can find a solid 5 with or without Kluber doing well, or by making a deal at the deadline, but Bloom is being held over the fire on this.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, I don't think this is one of those situations where we can get upset at the Sox for being too "thrifty" for Nathan Eovaldi.

 

Don't know what you're saying.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah because Eovaldi carries absolutely no other risks at all…

 

Every pitcher carries risks. Kind of goes without saying.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s weird.

 

Two months ago, players like Valdez, Winckowski, Wong were failed acquisitions with no MLB future. Then, as it turns out, they actually do have baseball skills. And throw in the out-of-nowhere emergence of Duran, and a surprisingly tough early schedule, and this team looks good.

 

But have 3 bad games and focus on the hot streaks of departed players and suddenly the goal was clearly 85 wins and save money…

 

I never said that was the goal. Please don't misrepresent.

[Bellhorn04]

I was chastiszed around here for suggesting the Sox even offer Nate (and Wacha too) a Q.O. Wacha probably would have accepted though, which....given the cap space and the Kluber situation would look pretty damn good right about now.

 

No one wanted Nate around here last year. His arm looked like it was falling off. Bloom would have been chastized all winter if he resigned Nate to that contract.

 

Disagree 1000%. And I'd like to see the posts where you were chastised. It certainly wasn't by me.

[moonslav59]

Don't know what you're saying.

 

Maybe the risks were too great on Nate, and although many here wanted Nate all along, this is kind of hindsighting.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the risks were too great on Nate, and although many here wanted Nate all along, this is kind of hindsighting.

 

Hindsighting is a big part of what we do here. But I was baffled throughout the whole offseason about what Bloom was doing about the rotation, and I know I expressed it numerous times.

[moonslav59]

Disagree 1000%. And I'd like to see the posts where you were chastised. It certainly wasn't by me.

 

Some were against the idea, but I don't recall chastising, either.

 

I was briefly for offering a QO on Wacha, too, until I realized he would not be getting any offers near a QO, last winter, but I did want to try and bring him back.

 

Bringing Strahm back would have been better than Kluber, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was chastiszed around here for suggesting the Sox even offer Nate (and Wacha too) a Q.O. Wacha probably would have accepted though, which....given the cap space and the Kluber situation would look pretty damn good right about now.

 

No one wanted Nate around here last year. His arm looked like it was falling off. Bloom would have been chastized all winter if he resigned Nate to that contract.

 

That's bull. There are a few posters obsessed with payroll burdens at the back end of contracts, and other posters who don't care that every pitcher breaks down eventually, and would rather see investments in guys that are good bets at the front end.

 

There are even some that argued through the entire tenure of his Red Sox contract that Eovaldi was overpaid, even though he led all Boston starters in innings pitched and lowest ERA from 2019-22.

 

I'm not arguing guys like Eovaldi and Wacha have improved as pitchers after leaving Boston. Maybe new ballparks, new defenses behind them, and new opponents with weaker bats have something to do with their success. But they don't suck, either.

[moonslav59]

Hindsighting is a big part of what we do here. But I was baffled throughout the whole offseason about what Bloom was doing about the rotation, and I know I expressed it numerous times.

 

All aboard on this.

 

I understood why he held off on getting a top line starter from 2020-2022, because I don't think anyone felt we were an ace away from a ring before any of those seasons, but this was the turn-around winter. This was the big budget winter. This was the legacy building winter.

 

I will say, his faith in Sale, Paxton and Bello have paid off, but we needed more- much more.

 

I applauded the building up of the 40 an and farm, first philosophy, but he seemed to continue with the philosophy beyond its usefulness, at least on the rotation.

 

His plan may still pay off. It seems Houck has made a serious move at securing the 4th slot in the rotation. That leaves one slot left, and many a team gets by with a weak #5.

 

I no longer have 2023 hopes that Mata, Walter or Murphy getting a shot at the #5, but there is hope one of these three step up into the slot and succeeds: Crawford, Pivetta or Kluber.

 

We are almost to the one-third mark. If the bats come back around, and we keep avoiding major blunders on D and the basepaths, we can probably get by with 4 good starters and a solid pen.

 

[Old Red]

I think our best chance at passing someone ahead of us is BAL.

 

TOR might be second.

 

Maybe TEX imploses, despite all the top talent they

 

NYY has a putrid offense and is almost always injury prone.

 

HOU is too good to realistically hope we can pass.

 

The Rays are in a class by themselves. For those who call us TB North, I wish!

 

As Lee Corso would say not so fast when it comes to passing Baltimore. The Judge, and the Yankees offense isn’t so bad either.

[Old Red]

Hindsighting is a big part of what we do here. But I was baffled throughout the whole offseason about what Bloom was doing about the rotation, and I know I expressed it numerous times.

 

Bloom goes for a cheap option when it comes to the rotation. That’s his standing operating procedure.

[moonslav59]

We are just about 1/3 into the 2023 season, and here are some of my observations:

 

The offense has been as balanced as it has in a while. Our depth has been amazing. A look at the top OPS+ guys highlights that point, and we have 8 guys over 107 and 9 over 95.

 

303 Duvall (37 PAs is a tiny sample size)

131 Duran (coming back down to earth a bit)

130 Yoshida (not much talk of bonehead overpaying, lately.)

118 Verdugo (has slipped from his amazing start to '23.)

112 Devers (poised for an eruption?)

111 Valdez (the boost we needed at middle IF)

111 Refsnyder (perhaps silencing those who claimed '22 was a mfluke)

107 Turner (a traditional second half basher, so...)

95 Reyes (not sure he can stay here)

86 Wong (a nice OPS+ for a catcher, as Vaz was 98 last year and 86 '22-'23)

86 Tapia (has given some spark)

83 McGuire (injured?)

80 Casas (has been doing better but needs to continue improving)

77 Arroyo/ 73 Kike/ 34 Chang (needing the return of Story)

 

OPS+ Against

SP'ers

75 Paxton (small sample size but encouraging)

84 Houck (finding his groove)

100 Sale (started out very badly)

123 Bello (coming around)

135 Pivetta (what happened to the consistent 4.50 guy?)

140 Kluber (close to pen demotion)

155 Whitlock (needs to regain and quickly)

 

RP (30+ PAs Against)

56 Martin (big help)

57 Wink (the year's surprise, so far)

79 Crawford (ditto with Wink)

89 Schreiber (perhaps showing 2022 was no fluke)

106 Jansen (was doing great until recently)

112 Bernardino (hasn't done badly)

128 Bleier (may not be around much longer)

131 Kelly (out for a while)

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

It’s weird.

 

Two months ago, players like Valdez, Winckowski, Wong were failed acquisitions with no MLB future. Then, as it turns out, they actually do have baseball skills. And throw in the out-of-nowhere emergence of Duran, and a surprisingly tough early schedule, and this team looks good.

 

But have 3 bad games and focus on the hot streaks of departed players and suddenly the goal was clearly 85 wins and save money…

 

I mean, I don't think that's true? Wong was most likely the backup Catcher at least. Valdez was seen as a platoon bat at some point, but had no home defensively (he's only 24 so how was he a failure?). Winckowski struggled last season, but over and over and over again SoxProspects said that his stuff would play up in the pen and it did.

[mvp 78]

I was chastiszed around here for suggesting the Sox even offer Nate (and Wacha too) a Q.O. Wacha probably would have accepted though, which....given the cap space and the Kluber situation would look pretty damn good right about now.

 

No one wanted Nate around here last year. His arm looked like it was falling off. Bloom would have been chastized all winter if he resigned Nate to that contract.

 

Bloom offered Nate a larger contract than what he signed for in TEX.

[moonslav59]

It's pretty easy to determine why we are currently on the outside looking in on the WC slots: pitching.

 

Current rankings, per fangraphs:

 

26th fWAR at 2.3 (KCR 2.5, CWS 2.8, SG & WSH at 3.1)

24th ERA- at 106 (Det & MIA at 105, PHI 104 and AZ 103)

22nd WHIP at 1.34 (6 teams between 1.31-1.33)

17th xFIP at 4.31 (TEX 4.26, STL & PIT at 4.22)

15th K-BB% at 14%

 

On the other side of the coin....

5th best K% at 20.5% but 22nd in BB% at 8.3%

8th in OPS at .766 (CHC at .768)

10th in FWAR at 6.8 (LAA at 7.0)

10th in ISO .171

10th in O at 14.4

20th in D at -11.1