A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

We're kind of reaching the point that a "middle reliever" is more important than the term would suggest.

 

I value middle relievers, at least the GOOD ones.

[mvp 78]

Hits per inn, and K’s to BB is what to me is the most important, but I do notice the ERA first.

 

WHIP as starter: 1.12

WHIP as reliever: 1.14

 

K/BB as starter: 3.45

K/BB as reliever: 2.71 (surprising that this isn't higher)

[Bellhorn04]

I value middle relievers, at least the GOOD ones.

 

I have always valued good pitchers too.

[Old Red]

WHIP as starter: 1.12

WHIP as reliever: 1.14

 

K/BB as starter: 3.45

K/BB as reliever: 2.71 (surprising that this isn't higher)

I know his numbers are good, but I guess to me he just doesn’t appear to be that good on a consistent basis.

[moonslav59]

Expecting Crawford or Winckowski to become a useful middle relief guy isn't that much of a leap of faith. They both have an interesting pitch mix that could play up in that role.

 

It wasn't meant to be some big happy projection, but plus middle relief guys are needed in a good pen.

 

I think Houck should be the go to middle guy, but having a good 2nd one is always a nice thing to have. That takes up 2 of the 13 pitching slots and makes selecting the other 11 a lot more likely to produce higher quality SP'ers and short RP'ers.

[moonslav59]

We're kind of reaching the point that a "middle reliever" is more important than the term would suggest.

 

It's been an area of high growth in importance since maybe Andrew Miller.

[mvp 78]

I have always valued good pitchers too.

 

Garces good, Wasdin bad.

[moonslav59]

I know his numbers are good, but I guess to me he just doesn’t appear to be that good on a consistent basis.

 

How is he inconsistent?

 

All pitchers have some ups and downs, but I don't see Houck as being more up and down than anyone else.

 

In 2021, after a bad game 3 of his season, his ERA was 4.35 (FIP 2.40), and then his ERA stayed between 2.45 and 3.80 the whole season.

 

In August, he had a 4 game stretch where he did poorly in 3, but still never let 4, 3 and 3 runs in those games.) He had 2 straight poor starts in September (6 ER in 8 IP,) but that's it.

 

Last year's jerking around from SP to RP probably didn't help, but again, after a bad first start (3 ER in 3.1 IP), his ERA stayed between and a brief spike to an ERA of 4.05 in mid May due to 2 bad games, including 7 ER in one relief appearance, hiis ERA stayed between 2.99 and 3.59.

 

After May 8th, he never let up more than 1 ER in any of his 25 games.

 

You said you like Hits per 9. His 6.9 H/9 is pretty damn good. (Pedro's career mark is 7.1. It was 6.4 from 1997-2003, perhaps the greatest 7 year stretch in modern baseball.)

 

[Old Red]

How is he inconsistent?

 

All pitchers have some ups and downs, but I don't see Houck as being more up and down than anyone else.

 

In 2021, after a bad game 3 of his season, his ERA was 4.35 (FIP 2.40), and then his ERA stayed between 2.45 and 3.80 the whole season.

 

In August, he had a 4 game stretch where he did poorly in 3, but still never let 4, 3 and 3 runs in those games.) He had 2 straight poor starts in September (6 ER in 8 IP,) but that's it.

 

Last year's jerking around from SP to RP probably didn't help, but again, after a bad first start (3 ER in 3.1 IP), his ERA stayed between and a brief spike to an ERA of 4.05 in mid May due to 2 bad games, including 7 ER in one relief appearance, hiis ERA stayed between 2.99 and 3.59.

 

After May 8th, he never let up more than 1 ER in any of his 25 games.

 

You said you like Hits per 9. His 6.9 H/9 is pretty damn good. (Pedro's career mark is 7.1. It was 6.4 from 1997-2003, perhaps the greatest 7 year stretch in modern baseball.)

 

You can give me all the metrics you want, but that’s just my opinion, and nothing else, which I’ve been saying for 2 years.

[moonslav59]

You can give me all the metrics you want, but that’s just my opinion, and nothing else, which I’ve been saying for 2 years.

 

So, no examples or reasons, just your gut?

 

Also, I gave no metrics just simple game stats.

Edited March 3, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

My personal opinion is that they are somewhere 10-15.

 

AAA - Aside from Bello, the pitchers that have made it to BOS haven't been very successful (Crawford, Winckowski). Mata has potential, but is probably just a reliever. Rafaela is most likely the only impact bat. I'm not sold on Duran, Hamilton or Abreu.

AA - Lots of hitters to watch (Kavadas, Scott, Lugo, Abreu), but the only guy with a clear carrying MLB tool is Yorke. Unfortunately, he had a terrible season last year and has an injury history. The current projected pitchers for AA are rough. This is the 2020 draft class that was restricted to only 4 rounds for the Sox. Maybe it'd look better if there was a normal draft that year? IDK.

A+/A - The strength of the organization with Bleis, Mayer, Hickey, Romero, Bonaci, Paulino, Blaze, Roman, Perales, ERC, Winkelman. Most of these guys are just years away. The only guy who could make a short term impact would be Mayer. I'm not sure anyone else would be in BOS before late 2025.

FCL/DSL - These guys are really far away. Who knows? Includes Brannon, Coffey, Freili, Alcantara, Fraymi, Yoeilin.

 

It is a very heavy, bat first organization. Is that a guiding principal for Chaim? We've seen lots of high ranked prospects go down with arm injuries recently. Some high drafted arms can't even get out of AA. There's just a lot of variance. Maybe it's just circumstance because other organizations have gone heavy with arms (Cleveland, Angels)? The Dodgers only drafted one pitcher in the first 10 rounds last year and they are one of the best organizations in baseball year in and year out (only 4 pitchers taken in all 20 rounds).

 

Another example today?

 

@ScottLauber

Andrew Painter felt some tenderness in his elbow. Went for tests today. #Phillies will know more tomorrow.

[Old Red]

So, no examples or reasons, just your gut?

 

Also, I gave no metrics just simple game stats.

 

We went through this last offseason when I said the same thing. Just my gut. I was just saying you can give me all the stats you want, and my opinion hasn’t changed.

[moonslav59]

We went through this last offseason when I said the same thing. Just my gut. I was just saying you can give me all the stats you want, and my opinion hasn’t changed.

 

I'm not trying change your mind or opinion. I'm just wondered what you based your opinion on.

 

Thanks for answering.

 

To me, the game logs clearly show he has been one of our most consistent pitchers since he was called up in 2020. He's had very few bad stretches, and when he does, they last 2-3 games max, and even then, rarely involve more than 3-4 ERs allowed.

 

I'm not sure where your "gut" is getting all that it gets. Maybe you are eating the wrong foods, when he pitches.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Covers has this on each of our injured players:

 

Bello is managing a forearm injury, and he is not expected to take on the Orioles on March 30.

 

Whitlock from arthroscopic surgery on his right hip, and it is unlikely that he will be active against the Orioles in the season opener.

 

Paxton is sidelined with a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, and it is unclear when he will make his season debut.

 

Wong is nursing a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, leaving his status for the season opener against the Orioles in doubt.

 

Mondesi is on the mend after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ACL on his left knee, and it remains to be seen if he will be ready for the season opener versus the Orioles.

 

Story has wound up on the 60-day injured list after undergoing an internal bracing procedure on the UCL in his right elbow, and he is expected to be sidelined for four to six months. (Mid-July)

 

Assuming all these guys start the season on the IL (Story on the 60,) could this be the opening day 26 man roster?

 

Add Alfaro to 40 man and trade/DFA Ort.

 

SP: Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford

 

RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier, Mills, Kelly (possibly Mata, Walter, Wink, Murphy or Ort if not moved.)

 

C: McGuire & Alfaro

1B: Casas

2B: Arroyo

3B: Devers

SS: Kike

LF: Yoshida

CF: Duvall

RF: Dugo

DH: Turner

IF: Chang

OF: Refsnyder

OF: Duran (possibly Valdez, Hamilton, Dalbec, Rafaela)

 

Line up:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Dugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B

9. L McGuire C

 

(I'd prefer not putting our best hitter up 3rd, so maybe Devers bats 2nd. If the O's start a righty, maybe we'll see that.

 

1. Yoshida L

2. Devers L

3. Turner R

4. Casas L

5. Dugu L

6. Duvall R

7. Kike R

8. McGuire L

9. Arroyo R

 

[notin]

Please just leave Houck in the bullpen.

 

 

Paxton will miss at most one start. Let Murphy or Walters handle it…

[notin]

Also adding Chang over a third catcher might prove a mistake if Wong isn’t ready. But it will be Chang - and not Ort - who gets DFAd…

[moonslav59]

Please just leave Houck in the bullpen.

 

 

Paxton will miss at most one start. Let Murphy or Walters handle it…

 

Agreed on Houck. I might go with Mata over Walter or Murphy, or if Wink is looking okay, him too.

[moonslav59]

Also adding Chang over a third catcher might prove a mistake if Wong isn’t ready. But it will be Chang - and not Ort - who gets DFAd…

 

I added Alfaro to the 40, but yes, I had Chang on the 26, too. It would have to be Valdez or Hamilton. If Wong starts on the IL or bench with injury, we'd need Alfaro added.

[a700hitter]

Please just leave Houck in the bullpen.

 

 

Paxton will miss at most one start. Let Murphy or Walters handle it…

The report is that he will not be ready for the beginning of the season.

[moonslav59]

The report is that he will not be ready for the beginning of the season.

 

At this rate, it looks like the list of 12 may be down to 5 or 6 by opening day.

[Tedballgame]

Paxton is injury prone. That is not a good condition to have. Must have caught it from Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

Paxton is injury prone. That is not a good condition to have. Must have caught it from Sale.

 

It's a very common affliction among pitchers.

[notin]

The report is that he will not be ready for the beginning of the season.

 

Mid-April. He might be back by Tax Day.

 

I haven’t looked at the schedule yet, but normally April schedules have enough early off-days that full five man rotations are not always necessary.

[notin]

I added Alfaro to the 40, but yes, I had Chang on the 26, too. It would have to be Valdez or Hamilton. If Wong starts on the IL or bench with injury, we'd need Alfaro added.

 

I doubt Bloom exposes Valdez or Hamilton to waivers and a subsequent claim. I could see Chang getting DFAd and brought back…

[moonslav59]

I doubt Bloom exposes Valdez or Hamilton to waivers and a subsequent claim. I could see Chang getting DFAd and brought back…

 

No, I meant rather than add Chang to the 40, he'd use Valdez or Hamilton as the 26th man and IF depth.

[notin]

No, I meant rather than add Chang to the 40, he'd use Valdez or Hamilton as the 26th man and IF depth.

 

Chang is already on the 40. The problem is in order to get Alfaro on the 40, someone has to go. You suggested Ort. While I’m an 100% on board with that option, it’s not going to happen. I’m suggesting Chang, who never should have been added over Alfaro in the first place, will be DFAd. Chang is also pretty likely to go unclaimed so he is pretty likely to be retained. Apparently this is of some mild importance to Bloom, since he keeps adding the guy to the Reserve List…

[moonslav59]

Chang is already on the 40. The problem is in order to get Alfaro on the 40, someone has to go. You suggested Ort. While I’m an 100% on board with that option, it’s not going to happen. I’m suggesting Chang, who never should have been added over Alfaro in the first place, will be DFAd. Chang is also pretty likely to go unclaimed so he is pretty likely to be retained. Apparently this is of some mild importance to Bloom, since he keeps adding the guy to the Reserve List…

 

For some reason, I forgot Chang was on the 40, already.

 

If push comes to shove, despite Chang maybe being more ML ready, I'd protect Valdez and Hamilton over him.

 

I really want to see Valdez get a chance, but it looks like he would platoon, ie ever given a chance.

[mvp 78]

Paxton is injury prone. That is not a good condition to have. Must have caught it from Sale.

 

He had it long before he came to the Sox.

[mvp 78]

Chang is already on the 40. The problem is in order to get Alfaro on the 40, someone has to go. You suggested Ort. While I’m an 100% on board with that option, it’s not going to happen. I’m suggesting Chang, who never should have been added over Alfaro in the first place, will be DFAd. Chang is also pretty likely to go unclaimed so he is pretty likely to be retained. Apparently this is of some mild importance to Bloom, since he keeps adding the guy to the Reserve List…

 

Abreu 60day IL

[mvp 78]

Agreed on Houck. I might go with Mata over Walter or Murphy, or if Wink is looking okay, him too.

 

I think Opening Day rotation will end up being:

Sale

Kluber

Houck

Pivetta

Crawford