A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Yeah. He has no impact on the current state of the farm system.

 

Okay.

[Nick]

Okay.

 

I don't care.

 

We have possibility of Bello, Whitlock and Houck all joining the starting rotation and Mata is waiting on wings.

 

Someone here dismissed Mata as a reliever. Thing is they are all trying to get better. Mata was higher rated pitcher than Bello before Tommy John. Yeah, his control needs work but he wants to get there. He's lost weight, he is working on his change up. Isn't it too early to give up on Mata as a starter?

 

Same goes for Kutter. He pitched well in stretches.

 

I'll say it again, my 'eye' test say we have more young, starting pitching talent than we've had the last few years. Rank us 30th. Who cares? We're inserting Casas into the mix this year. Is there any doubt that Rafaela will crack the line up within two years?

 

Story and Yoshida will buy us time to get some of our younger talent in A ball to mature.

 

No more bitching about Devers? He's here for 11 years. 11 Freakin' Years.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Nick

[mvp 78]

I don't care.

 

We have possibility of Bello, Whitlock and Houck all joining the starting rotation and Mata is waiting on wings.

 

Someone here dismissed Mata as a reliever. Thing is they are all trying to get better. Mata was higher rated pitcher than Bello before Tommy John. Yeah, his control needs work but he wants to get there. He's lost weight, he is working on his change up. Isn't it too early to give up on Mata as a starter?

 

Same goes for Kutter. He pitched well in stretches.

 

I'll say it again, my 'eye' test say we have more young, starting pitching talent than we've had the last few years. Rank us 30th. Who cares? We're inserting Casas into the mix.

 

No more bitching about Devers? He's here for 11 years. 11 Freakin' Years.

 

Mata just doesn't stay healthy enough to be a starter.

 

Innings

16 61 normal DSL year

17 77 started off at extended ST

18 72 ended season early due to injury

19 105 missed a large chunk of the early season due to injury

21 TJS

22 83 rehab from TJS season

 

He's just never carried a starter's workload.

[moonslav59]

I don't care.

 

We have possibility of Bello, Whitlock and Houck all joining the starting rotation and Mata is waiting on wings.

 

Someone here dismissed Mata as a reliever. Thing is they are all trying to get better. Mata was higher rated pitcher than Bello before Tommy John. Yeah, his control needs work but he wants to get there. He's lost weight, he is working on his change up. Isn't it too early to give up on Mata as a starter?

 

Same goes for Kutter. He pitched well in stretches.

 

I'll say it again, my 'eye' test say we have more young, starting pitching talent than we've had the last few years. Rank us 30th. Who cares? We're inserting Casas into the mix this year. Is there any doubt that Rafaela will crack the line up within two years?

 

Story and Yoshida will buy us time to get some of our younger talent in A ball to mature.

 

No more bitching about Devers? He's here for 11 years. 11 Freakin' Years.

 

Singing to the choir!

[notin]

Mata just doesn't stay healthy enough to be a starter.

 

Innings

16 61 normal DSL year

17 77 started off at extended ST

18 72 ended season early due to injury

19 105 missed a large chunk of the early season due to injury

21 TJS

22 83 rehab from TJS season

 

He's just never carried a starter's workload.

 

If Mata becomes a reliever, I see no problem with that. The Sox don’t need the farm to produce starters every year, although it would be nice…

[mvp 78]

If Mata becomes a reliever, I see no problem with that. The Sox don’t need the farm to produce starters every year, although it would be nice…

 

And Mata as a reliever isn't a "middle reliever" either. I'd see him as a late inning guy. He's the potential closer of the future IMO.

[moonslav59]

If Mata becomes a reliever, I see no problem with that. The Sox don’t need the farm to produce starters every year, although it would be nice…

 

Make that a "good" reliever.

 

If we can get Houck and Bello to become two quality starters, that's a big plus over the last decade plus.

 

If you count Whitlock, since he was chosen as a prospect, it's looking real good.

 

To me, it looks like we're starting to see quality and quantity.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski

Bello, Mata, Walter, Kelly, Murphy, Ort, R Fernandez

Perales, Wikelman, E R-C, Drohan, Paez, Guerrero, Uberstine

[Nick]

Make that a "good" reliever.

 

If we can get Houck and Bello to become two quality starters, that's a big plus over the last decade plus.

 

If you count Whitlock, since he was chosen as a prospect, it's looking real good.

 

To me, it looks like we're starting to see quality and quantity.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski

Bello, Mata, Walter, Kelly, Murphy, Ort, R Fernandez

Perales, Wikelman, E R-C, Drohan, Paez, Guerrero, Uberstine

 

Where is the pitch clock at the stadiums? Can the pitcher see it facing the batter?

[mvp 78]

Make that a "good" reliever.

 

If we can get Houck and Bello to become two quality starters, that's a big plus over the last decade plus.

 

If you count Whitlock, since he was chosen as a prospect, it's looking real good.

 

To me, it looks like we're starting to see quality and quantity.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski

Bello, Mata, Walter, Kelly, Murphy, Ort, R Fernandez

Perales, Wikelman, E R-C, Drohan, Paez, Guerrero, Uberstine

 

Houck seems to be a bulk innings guy. He's not quite a starter and not quite a reliever. Hard to figure out what he is.

 

Crawford and Winckowski didn't show that much last year. Kelly was ok. Ort is a DFA candidate.

 

Bello seems to be a mid-rotation guy going forward depending on health.

 

Everyone else is a question mark at the moment.

[Old Red]

Houck seems to be a bulk innings guy. He's not quite a starter and not quite a reliever. Hard to figure out what he is.

 

Crawford and Winckowski didn't show that much last year. Kelly was ok. Ort is a DFA candidate.

 

Bello seems to be a mid-rotation guy going forward depending on health.

 

Everyone else is a question mark at the moment.

 

Houck is, and has been an inconsistent pitcher. He has good flashes, but I don’t think he is, or will be a quality starter. The Kut Man did have a good stretch last year, but has to do it for a longer period of time. Bello hasn’t pitched enough yet in the majors to see where he rates either as a top, or the middle of the rotation. Lots of promise, but that’s all at this point.

[notin]

And Mata as a reliever isn't a "middle reliever" either. I'd see him as a late inning guy. He's the potential closer of the future IMO.

 

I’m not overly concerned. As long as he’s racking up outs. Gotta shut down the opposition in the 6th and 7th innings, too…

[moonslav59]

Houck seems to be a bulk innings guy. He's not quite a starter and not quite a reliever. Hard to figure out what he is.

 

Crawford and Winckowski didn't show that much last year. Kelly was ok. Ort is a DFA candidate.

 

Bello seems to be a mid-rotation guy going forward depending on health.

 

Everyone else is a question mark at the moment.

 

Houck might be able to fill Whitlock's long relief role- no second timers.

Crawford and Winkc showed a few signs of sticking around. My hope is one will improve, this year, and fill the long releif/spot starter role, well.

Agree on Kelly and Ort.

Bello may rise to be a good #2, but solid mid rotation at min wage is a big help, going forward.

I think Mata is going to do well, in whatever role he is handed or settles into.

Walter is a question mark, for sure, but he shows more promise than Murphy, Wink, Crawford and many others.

 

We have a nice 7 or 8 pitchers from my first two lines. Not all will work out, but if we come up with 5-6, that's more than we've seen in a long time.

 

Best homegrown pitchers from previous seasons (must be top 15 in IP and have 25 IP min) All who qualify are listed: (I may have missed a name or two)

2004: Lowe, DiNardo

2005: Papelbon

2006: Papelbon, Delcarmen, DiNardo, Hansen

2007: (Dice-K & Okajima) Papelbon, Delcarmen, Gabbard

2008: (Dice-K), Masterson, Buchholz, Delcarmen, Papelbon, (Okajima), Hansen

2009: Buchholz, Masterson, Papelbon, (Okajima), Delcarmen, (Dice-K), Bard

2010: Buchholz, (Dice-K), Bard, Papelbon, (Okajim), Delcarmen, Doubront

2011: Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Papelbon, (Dice-K)

2012: Lester, Buch, Doubront (1-2-3 in IP!), Bard (traded for A Miller)

2013: Lester, Doubront, Buchholz, Workman (Alex Wilson #16 in IP and 28 IP)

2014: Buch, Lester, Workman, Doubront (Ranaudo #16 w 39 IP)

2015: (ERod traded for), Buch, Owens, Masterson (traded back to us), Barnes

2016: Buch, Barnes

2017: Barnes (#7 in IP), Workman (13)

2018: Johsnon (5), Velazquez (6), Barnes (10), Workman (14)

2019: Walden (5), Workman (6), Barnes (8), Taylor (13), Johnson (15)

2020: Valdez (4), Barnes (9), Houck (12) (IP requirement waived)

2021: (Whitlock 5- not homegrown), Houck (6), Barnes (9), Taylor (11), DHern (13), Valdez (14)

2022: Crawford (6), Wink (7), Houck (10), Bello (11), Barnes (15)

 

2023 Steamers projected IP

6 Bello 117

7 Houck 80

14 Crawford 52

18 Kelly 26

20 Walter 21

21 Wink 20

22 Mata 18

23 Murphy 14

 

 

[Nick]

Wander toward the back-right corner of the Red Sox clubhouse and you’ll see the lockers of the team’s three best upper-level pitching prospects right next to each other.

 

From left to right are lefties Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy, then righty Bryan Mata.

 

If that clubhouse layout is somewhat by design, Red Sox manager Alex Cora took it a step further in Sunday’s home Grapefruit League game against the Rays when he pitched them one inning each -- consecutively.

 

Murphy has the most powerful stuff of the three, and his ongoing goal is to improve his control. Mata might have already been in the Majors if not for Tommy John surgery, which wiped away his 2021 season and limited him to 18 starts last year.

 

Walter, whom the Red Sox took in the 26th round of the 2019 Draft due to the arm problems he had in college, had a brilliant ’21 season in Boston’s system, but was beset by a neck issue that limited him to 11 starts in ’22.

 

The results? Murphy, Boston’s No. 15 prospect per MLB Pipeline, was first out of the gate, setting down all three batters he faced, including one strikeout. Up next was No. 7 prospect Mata, who worked around a walk and struck out one in his scoreless inning. Walter, ranked No. 8 in the system, capped the day by striking out two of the three batters he faced.

 

Cora believes this trio can make it work...but, hey, we all know better than our manager.

[moonslav59]

Wander toward the back-right corner of the Red Sox clubhouse and you’ll see the lockers of the team’s three best upper-level pitching prospects right next to each other.

 

From left to right are lefties Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy, then righty Bryan Mata.

 

If that clubhouse layout is somewhat by design, Red Sox manager Alex Cora took it a step further in Sunday’s home Grapefruit League game against the Rays when he pitched them one inning each -- consecutively.

 

Murphy has the most powerful stuff of the three, and his ongoing goal is to improve his control. Mata might have already been in the Majors if not for Tommy John surgery, which wiped away his 2021 season and limited him to 18 starts last year.

 

Walter, whom the Red Sox took in the 26th round of the 2019 Draft due to the arm problems he had in college, had a brilliant ’21 season in Boston’s system, but was beset by a neck issue that limited him to 11 starts in ’22.

 

The results? Murphy, Boston’s No. 15 prospect per MLB Pipeline, was first out of the gate, setting down all three batters he faced, including one strikeout. Up next was No. 7 prospect Mata, who worked around a walk and struck out one in his scoreless inning. Walter, ranked No. 8 in the system, capped the day by striking out two of the three batters he faced.

 

Cora believes this trio can make it work...but, hey, we all know better than our manager.

 

Always love your posts, Nick.

 

I'm thinking, as long as Bello, Whitlock and Houck come through, maybe we just need 1-2 of these 3 to work out and maybe another 1-2 from all the rest combined. Call it 3.

 

Mata

Walter

Murphy

Crawford

Winckowski

Kelly

Fernandez

(Mills, Ort, Santos, Shugart, Broadway...)

 

13 Man staff, and we have 13 vets and post grads, not counting Crawford, Wink and Ort, and others on the above list, who all have options:

 

6 SP: Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton

7 RP: Jansen, Martins, Houck, Schreiber, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier

 

I'm liking our staff more and more, as I think about it.

[notin]

If Bello, Whitlock and Crawford all pan out as starters (which is admittedly asking a lot), that does create opportunities for Winckowski, Houck and Mata to grow as relievers

[moonslav59]

If Bello, Whitlock and Crawford all pan out as starters (which is admittedly asking a lot), that does create opportunities for Winckowski, Houck and Mata to grow as relievers

 

We will always be adding pieces via free agency and maybe via trade, again, so we aren't limited to just our homies working out where they fit best.

[notin]

We will always be adding pieces via free agency and maybe via trade, again, so we aren't limited to just our homies working out where they fit best.

 

The more rookies that pan out, the more left for free agent/extensions…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

After watching Murphy, Mata and Walter pitch on TV in ST games, I'm leaning towards this promising trio -- and not the old veteran starter threesome -- as the real key to the '23 season...

 

... because when one or two or three of Sale/Paxton/Kluber breaks down, these youngsters will take their place in some role on the staff.

 

Hoping and wishing and praying that Bloom makes moves to acquire outside pitching is by now a waste of time (and resources); who is coming to Boston from another team this season that looks any better than Murphy, Mata or Walter?

[moonslav59]

The more rookies that pan out, the more left for free agent/extensions…

 

I've been on that wagon a long time, and do believe we have begun to turn the corner on that long awaited area of need. There is still some proving to do, so I'm not raising the victory flag, just yet, but our younger pitchers (26 and under) look better than they have in about a decade- maybe more.

 

The other good thing is that this has not seemed to happen at the expense of weakening the everyday player aspect of our farm.

[moonslav59]

After watching Murphy, Mata and Walter pitch on TV in ST games, I'm leaning towards this promising trio -- and not the old veteran starter threesome -- as the real key to the '23 season...

 

... because when one or two or three of Sale/Paxton/Kluber breaks down, these youngsters will take their place in some role on the staff.

 

Hoping and wishing and praying that Bloom makes moves to acquire outside pitching is by now a waste of time (and resources); who is coming to Boston from another team this season that looks any better than Murphy, Mata or Walter?

 

I'd add Bello and call it a quartet.

 

I may be a homer, here, but I still think one from Crawford or Wink will develop into a very useful mid-relief pitcher who can pitch in some higher leverage situations from time to time.

[Bellhorn04]

Houck is, and has been an inconsistent pitcher. He has good flashes, but I don’t think he is, or will be a quality starter.

 

"Inconsistent" is kind of a fuzzy word applied to pitchers.

 

When you look at Houck's overall numbers, they're pretty damn good.

 

A 3.02 career ERA. Don't you old schoolers look at ERA first?

[Bellhorn04]

I'd add Bello and call it a quartet.

 

I may be a homer, here, but I still think one from Crawford or Wink will develop into a very useful mid-relief pitcher who can pitch in some higher leverage situations from time to time.

 

With guys like Crawford and Wink I think it's the coaching that can make all the difference.

[mvp 78]

Murphy has the most powerful stuff of the three

 

Huh?

 

What's the definition of "powerful"? Velo-wise it would be Mata. Spin rate-wise it would be Walter.

[mvp 78]

If Bello, Whitlock and Crawford all pan out as starters (which is admittedly asking a lot), that does create opportunities for Winckowski, Houck and Mata to grow as relievers

 

We've already seen that Houck struggles that second time through a lineup. No matter what, they need to find a consistent spot for him and stick him there. The same should be said for Whitlock. Stop yo-yo-ing them around between roles.

 

I think Winckowski's stuff should play up in the bullpen, but only if he's strictly a bullpen arm. I don't think they've slotted him there for 2023. Maybe next year?

 

I don't know what their plan is for Mata, but I've said my feelings on him often enough. High octane arm for sure.

[mvp 78]

I'd add Bello and call it a quartet.

 

I may be a homer, here, but I still think one from Crawford or Wink will develop into a very useful mid-relief pitcher who can pitch in some higher leverage situations from time to time.

 

Expecting Crawford or Winckowski to become a useful middle relief guy isn't that much of a leap of faith. They both have an interesting pitch mix that could play up in that role.

[mvp 78]

With guys like Crawford and Wink I think it's the coaching that can make all the difference.

 

I think players perform better when they know what role they are going to be in from day to day. If Crawford can plan on being in the pen for the year, his preparation would look much different and his outcomes may be much better.

[Bellhorn04]

We're kind of reaching the point that a "middle reliever" is more important than the term would suggest.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd add Bello and call it a quartet.

 

I may be a homer, here, but I still think one from Crawford or Wink will develop into a very useful mid-relief pitcher who can pitch in some higher leverage situations from time to time.

 

I didn't mention Bello because I already expect him to evolve into the next ace. Nobody will call him that, in deference to the grizzled veterans who starred back in the twenty-teens, but he's been the best pitcher on every team at every level in his climb to the bigs. Other players from those leagues will eventually make the Show, but there's no reason Bello won't continue to dominate them.

[mvp 78]

"Inconsistent" is kind of a fuzzy word applied to pitchers.

 

When you look at Houck's overall numbers, they're pretty damn good.

 

A 3.02 career ERA. Don't you old schoolers look at ERA first?

 

Career

Starter: 3.22, 603 OPS

Reliever: 2.68, 570 OPS

 

His career numbers are pretty strong.

 

The known issue of him as a starter is:

 

1st time through the order as starter: 0.96, 504 OPS

2nd time through the order as starter: 4.12, 642 OPS

3rd time through the order as starter: 14.21, 1016 OPS (only 6.1 innings)

 

His issue is he really has two main pitches and a third pitch that is fringy. If he truly developed the third pitch, maybe he could work longer into a game.

[Old Red]

"Inconsistent" is kind of a fuzzy word applied to pitchers.

 

When you look at Houck's overall numbers, they're pretty damn good.

 

A 3.02 career ERA. Don't you old schoolers look at ERA first?

 

Hits per inn, and K’s to BB is what to me is the most important, but I do notice the ERA first.