Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[moonslav59]

So as it stands, we're going into the season with a nice combination of injury risk (Sale, Paxton), journeyman mediocrity (Pivetta), and inexperience (the rest).

 

...and the "inexperienced" are the best hopes (Whitlock, Bello, Mata, Walter, Wink, Crawford & Seabold.)

[mvp 78]

It's a thad, thad, thad, thad ward.

 

Thaddeus.

[mvp 78]

So as it stands, we're going into the season with a nice combination of injury risk (Sale, Paxton), journeyman mediocrity (Pivetta), and inexperience (the rest).

 

Yup. Until additions are made to the staff, all that happened was subtractions from last year's staff.

 

I guess the expectation is

Sale 2023 > Hill 1.8 fWAR

Whitlock 2023 > Eovaldi + Whitlock 1.7 fWAR

Paxton 2023 > Wacha 1.5 fWAR

 

I can see the first two happening, but I'm not sold on the last.

 

If I had to guess:

 

Bello 3 fWAR

Sale 2.6 fWAR

Whitlock 2.5 fWAR (starting only)

Pivetta 1.5 fWAR

Paxton 0.6 fWAR

 

That's already at 10.2 fWAR, which is greater than last year's 8.6 fWAR for the whole staff.

[moonslav59]

Yup. Until additions are made to the staff, all that happened was subtractions from last year's staff.

 

I guess the expectation is

Sale 2023 > Hill 1.8 fWAR

Whitlock 2023 > Eovaldi + Whitlock 1.7 fWAR

Paxton 2023 > Wacha 1.5 fWAR

 

I can see the first two happening, but I'm not sold on the last.

 

If I had to guess:

 

Bello 3 fWAR

Sale 2.6 fWAR

Whitlock 2.5 fWAR (starting only)

Pivetta 1.5 fWAR

Paxton 0.6 fWAR

 

That's already at 10.2 fWAR, which is greater than last year's 8.6 fWAR for the whole staff.

 

So, basically...

 

Pivetta '23 = Pivetta '22

Bello '23> Bello + Hill '22

Sale '23> Nate + Crawford '22

Whitlock '23> Whitlock + Wink "22

Paxton + 6 others ??> Wacha + Seabold & others in '22

[Bellhorn04]

So, basically...

 

Pivetta '23 = Pivetta '22

Bello '23> Bello + Hill '22

Sale '23> Nate + Crawford '22

Whitlock '23> Whitlock + Wink "22

Paxton + 6 others ??> Wacha + Seabold & others in '22

 

You're a magician.

[mvp 78]

So, basically...

 

Pivetta '23 = Pivetta '22

Bello '23> Bello + Hill '22

Sale '23> Nate + Crawford '22

Whitlock '23> Whitlock + Wink "22

Paxton + 6 others ??> Wacha + Seabold & others in '22

 

I don't feel like redoing your math, but:

Bello 23 = Hill + Bello 22

Sale > Nate + Crawford

Piveta = Piveta

Whitlock >>> Whitlock + Winckowski (negative fWAR guy)

Paxton + Houck + Crawford + Mata + Winckowski = Wacha

[mvp 78]

You're a magician.

 

Don't praise the machine.

[notin]

Yup. Until additions are made to the staff, all that happened was subtractions from last year's staff.

 

I guess the expectation is

Sale 2023 > Hill 1.8 fWAR

Whitlock 2023 > Eovaldi + Whitlock 1.7 fWAR

Paxton 2023 > Wacha 1.5 fWAR

 

I can see the first two happening, but I'm not sold on the last.

 

If I had to guess:

 

Bello 3 fWAR

Sale 2.6 fWAR

Whitlock 2.5 fWAR (starting only)

Pivetta 1.5 fWAR

Paxton 0.6 fWAR

 

That's already at 10.2 fWAR, which is greater than last year's 8.6 fWAR for the whole staff.

 

Let’s not forget last year’s rotation was never set either.

 

Once Sale went down, we had Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, Pivetta and then one of Houck or Whitlock, with roles changing all over the place…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let’s not forget last year’s rotation was never set either.

 

Once Sale went down, we had Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, Pivetta and then one of Houck or Whitlock, with roles changing all over the place…

 

The Sox needed another legit starter going into the season for depth when any or all of the three veteran health risks Bloom added got hurt again.

 

You and I both demanded it. But our posts must have been at night, when Bloom's petals closed up because of the cold frosty air.

[notin]

The Sox needed another legit starter going into the season for depth when any or all of the three veteran health risks Bloom added got hurt again.

 

You and I both demanded it. But our posts must have been at night, when Bloom's petals closed up because of the cold frosty air.

 

 

At the very least, I wanted Houck’s vacated spot in the pen fillled. I get that the remaining starter options were a step below exciting…

[mvp 78]

Let’s not forget last year’s rotation was never set either.

 

Once Sale went down, we had Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill, Pivetta and then one of Houck or Whitlock, with roles changing all over the place…

 

The roles not being consistent for Whitlock and Houck really caused a lot of turmoil. I don't want any in season experimentation.

[mvp 78]

The Sox needed another legit starter going into the season for depth when any or all of the three veteran health risks Bloom added got hurt again.

 

You and I both demanded it. But our posts must have been at night, when Bloom's petals closed up because of the cold frosty air.

 

I think we all agree about that.

[mvp 78]

At the very least, I wanted Houck’s vacated spot in the pen fillled. I get that the remaining starter options were a step below exciting…

 

I think Mata could win that spot in ST.

[moonslav59]

You're a magician.

 

Presto Magnifico!

 

Seriously though, does anything I listed look clearly wrong?

 

Of course, there are some massive speculations, but who speculated Wacha and Hill would give what they did, last year?

 

How hard should it be to improve on the rotation of 2022?

 

That's one promising thing about having a horrific season: it's easier to improve upon.

 

It's easy to focus on how we replace these 236 IP and 43 GSd

3.32 Wacha (127 IP)

3.87 Nate (109 IP)

 

But what about these 270 IP and 57 GS'd...

4.27 Hill (124 & 26 GS)

5.75 Wink (67 & 14 GS)

5.43 Crawford (61 & 12 GS)

11.29 Seabold (18 & 5 GS)

 

Wink, Crawford and Seabold combined for 31 GS'd and a 6.35 ERA. There is a real chance those 3 get zero starts in 2023.

 

This is not magic: it's reality.

 

[moonslav59]

The roles not being consistent for Whitlock and Houck really caused a lot of turmoil. I don't want any in season experimentation.

 

This should be rule #1 for the 2023 staff.

 

Make the choices and stick to them, at all costs.

 

We have 6 SP'ers as depth. (Mata, Walter, Murphy, Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold.) Try them before moving Houck from the pen.

 

We have 6+ RP'ers as depth. (All the SP'er listed above plus Taylor, Kelly, German and others.)

 

I'd prefer Houck stay in the pen, and define a role for him there, too- like long man or 8th inning set up, who may go 2 IP when needed, only.

 

[moonslav59]

Don't praise the machine.

 

Welcome my son

Welcome to the machine

What did you dream?

It's alright we told you what to dream

[mvp 78]

How hard should it be to improve on the rotation of 2022?

 

That's one promising thing about having a horrific season: it's easier to improve upon.

 

Strongly agree.

 

At 8.6 fWAR, the rotation was 18th in the league. If they perform how I suggested above, they should be about a 12 fWAR rotation. It's a 40% improvement! However, they'd still be middle of the road at best and maybe ranked 14th in the league. For reference, the much maligned 2015 rotation was 13th and had 12.9 fWAR. The really bad rotation that we stopped talking about a long time ago was 2012 which was 28th and only had 4.5 fWAR.

[moonslav59]

Strongly agree.

 

At 8.6 fWAR, the rotation was 18th in the league. If they perform how I suggested above, they should be about a 12 fWAR rotation. It's a 40% improvement! However, they'd still be middle of the road at best and maybe ranked 14th in the league. For reference, the much maligned 2015 rotation was 13th and had 12.9 fWAR. The really bad rotation that we stopped talking about a long time ago was 2012 which was 28th and only had 4.5 fWAR.

 

If that suggest improvement comes true and the pen greatly improves on 2022, the staff, as a whole. could move up sharply from 22nd in fWAR at 9.8 to maybe 14th overall at near 15.0 with some upside potential for better with extremely good health or the addition of Kluber and/or Fulmer or a trade addition.

 

Now, how do you foresee the fWAR differentials at the 9 batting slots?

 

We were 18th at an 18 fWAR:

 

C 11th (2.7) Vaz & Plawecki vs McGuire & Wong

1B 25th -0.6 Dalbec, Cordero & others vs Casas & Turner

2B 20th at 1.7 Story, Arroyo & others vs a healthy Story & Arroyo

SS 4th at 5.9 Bogey vs one from Andrus, MRojas, Mateo or Iggy

3B 9th 4.6 Devers & Dalbec vs the 2023 Devers & Turner

LF 23rd 0.9 Dugo, Pham & others vs Yoshida

CF 24th 1.3 Kike, Duran vs a healthier Kike

RF 15th 2.2 JBJ, Dugo & Ref vs Dugo and Refsnyder

DH 18th 0.4 JD vs Turner, Yoshida, Dalbec

[Bellhorn04]

We signed Kluber.

[mvp 78]

C 11th (2.7) Vaz & Plawecki vs McGuire & Wong

1B 25th -0.6 Dalbec, Cordero & others vs Casas & Turner

2B 20th at 1.7 Story, Arroyo & others vs a healthy Story & Arroyo

SS 4th at 5.9 Bogey vs one from Andrus, MRojas, Mateo or Iggy

3B 9th 4.6 Devers & Dalbec vs the 2023 Devers & Turner

LF 23rd 0.9 Dugo, Pham & others vs Yoshida

CF 24th 1.3 Kike, Duran vs a healthier Kike

RF 15th 2.2 JBJ, Dugo & Ref vs Dugo and Refsnyder

DH 18th 0.4 JD vs Turner, Yoshida, Dalbec

 

C better

1B better

2B better IF Story doesn't move, worse otherwise

SS worse no matter what

3B worse

RF same

CF better

LF better

DH worse

[Bellhorn04]

One thing that bothers me about the catching is, what the hell was up with McGuire's 6.33 CERA with us? I know it's a shaky stat, but when the number is that out of whack it makes you wonder what happened.

[Hugh2]

C better

1B better

2B better IF Story doesn't move, worse otherwise

SS worse no matter what

3B worse

RF same

CF better

LF better

DH worse

 

Do you think we will be worse at 3B? No love for a 26-year-old Rafael Devers having a career year???

[moonslav59]

We signed Kluber.

 

Wow! Only $10M with incentives!

 

I love the $11M option for 2024, even if there might be a buyout.

Edited December 28, 2022 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

One thing that bothers me about the catching is, what the hell was up with McGuire's 6.33 CERA with us? I know it's a shaky stat, but when the number is that out of whack it makes you wonder what happened.

 

It was the guys he was catching at the end of the year.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2022-08-19&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0

https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2022-08-23&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0

[moonslav59]

One thing that bothers me about the catching is, what the hell was up with McGuire's 6.33 CERA with us? I know it's a shaky stat, but when the number is that out of whack it makes you wonder what happened.

 

It worries me, too, but there has to be an adjustment period, and I think the staff sucked after the trade deadline, no matter who was catching.

[mvp 78]

Do you think we will be worse at 3B? No love for a 26-year-old Rafael Devers having a career year???

 

I expected one last year and it didn't happen. I think he'll be about the same as last year overall. The loss of Xander may creep into his happiness, plus the likelihood of him being traded.

[moonslav59]

I expected one last year and it didn't happen. I think he'll be about the same as last year overall. The loss of Xander may creep into his happiness, plus the likelihood of him being traded.

 

If he's traded, we'll all agree on a big expected drop-off.

 

It's his "contract year" in 2023, and I think he was playing hurt in AUG '22. Now, he may play hurt in '23, too, but I'm expecting a plus at 3B.

 

Wouldn't a Devers extension, right now, even if there is an opt out in 2-3 years, change the mood of Sox Nation?

[moonslav59]

C better

1B better

2B better IF Story doesn't move, worse otherwise

SS worse no matter what

3B worse

RF same

CF better

LF better

DH worse

 

Let's say we extend Devers and change 3B to equal. That would be 5 better to one massive worse at SS.

 

Overall, a big gain on pitching from 22nd to maybe 14th and Everyday players from 18th to ____ (8th to 10th?)

 

The defense is hard to call.

 

C: is McGuire going to show he can handle the staff? Wong is highly questionable, too, even as just the back-up catcher.

1B: This has to be a big gain on D

2B: Depends on Story playing 2B and playing more innings.

SS: Depends on who plays SS, but Bogey without the shift is not that hard to improve on for defense, only.

3B: Devers has been up and down. He looked good in '22: call it even.

LF: Yoshida is not known for D, but neither were our 2022 LF'ers, so maybe a sllight loss.

CF: Depends on more innings from a healthy Kike.

RF: probably a loss, although these were the innings played in RF in 2022:

526 JBJ (just 37% of all RF innings)

432 Dugo

163 Ref

124 Cordero- YUCK!

108 Arroyo- Yuck!

46 Duran- Yuck

24 Davis

8 Almonte

 

Those bottom 5 combined for 210 innings of real bad D. Thatw as 15% of the innings in RF. Was that enough to offset the good JBJ brought to RF D in '22? Maybe somewhat.

 

I see a good chance we improve on D at 4-5 positions and get worse at 2-3 (RF, LF and maybe C)

[mvp 78]

If he's traded, we'll all agree on a big expected drop-off.

 

It's his "contract year" in 2023, and I think he was playing hurt in AUG '22. Now, he may play hurt in '23, too, but I'm expecting a plus at 3B.

 

Wouldn't a Devers extension, right now, even if there is an opt out in 2-3 years, change the mood of Sox Nation?

 

An extension should change the mood. I think fans want to know they can invest in the team longterm since the owners will be too.

[mvp 78]

The defense is hard to call.

 

You were never a big fan of Vaz anyway. I think the real question is what happens up the middle. If they move Kiké off CF to SS, it's a big mistake. If they keep Story at 2B and sign Andrus for SS, the defense is better if health isn't a concern.