Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[moonslav59]

The scariest thing about our rotation/depth list as it stands?

 

We have one pitcher - one - who pitched as many as 80 major league innings last year.

 

MLB innings only, yes.

 

Bello: 57 MLB + 96 minors= 153

 

Winckowski: 70+62=132

 

Crawford: 77+25=112

Seabold: 18+87=105

 

Minors Only:

152 Murphy (pretty far down on the depth chart)

145 Santos (way down the depth chart)

83 Mata (might work his way up to 7th or 8th on the chart)

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

We seem to have reached the point that making a blockbuster trade for a starter would be foolish.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We seem to have reached the point that making a blockbuster trade for a starter would be foolish.

 

Right -- any deals better exclude any potential future core of the next sustained contenders. The only logical trade bait would seem like Verdugo, Pivetta and Kike. Comeback vets like Sale, Paxton, Barnes, Taylor, and the new relievers could be flipped in the summer if they have good first halves. Even Story could, since his contract is suddenly average.

 

I haven't forgotten Devers, who I think they'll wait until ST to swap to avoid public static and to give serious suitors a chance to bid against each other. Otherwise, they'll just play charades for another year with their latest #1 Priority...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they've already decided that Houck is in the 2023 rotation, not the pen.

[notin]

Maybe they've already decided that Houck is in the 2023 rotation, not the pen.

 

I’m ok with that on two conditions:

 

1: They backfill his pen slot.

 

2: They keep him as a starter. And this does mean, if all the stars align and Paxton and Sale are healthy, that Houck goes to Worcester and starts and not to the bullpen…

[mvp 78]

Maybe they've already decided that Houck is in the 2023 rotation, not the pen.

 

I'd rather him in the pen, but his career numbers haven't ticked up like you'd expect when you put him out there.

[moonslav59]

We seem to have reached the point that making a blockbuster trade for a starter would be foolish.

 

Unless the guy is under control for 4+ years or can be extended to that.

[moonslav59]

No matter what we do with Houck, just keep him at the one slot you choose and add a SP or RP'er accordingly.

 

Kluber or Fulmer will not break the bank. Hell, we could add both and trade Dugo for RH'd RF'er and be much better off.

[Bellhorn04]

MLB innings only, yes.

 

Bello: 57 MLB + 96 minors= 153

 

Winckowski: 70+62=132

 

Crawford: 77+25=112

Seabold: 18+87=105

 

Minors Only:

152 Murphy (pretty far down on the depth chart)

145 Santos (way down the depth chart)

83 Mata (might work his way up to 7th or 8th on the chart)

 

I think the issue with the innings for the guys you mentioned isn't health concerns, it's the fact they are inexperienced and unproven at the MLB level.

[Bellhorn04]

We have one guy-one-Pivetta, that we have a fair idea what to expect from him. The rest are all major question marks in some way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have one guy-one-Pivetta, that we have a fair idea what to expect from him. The rest are all major question marks in some way.

 

Even if there's an infinitesimal chance that Sale and Paxton both make healthy comebacks and turn back the clock, is relying on a miracle a sound strategy for improvement... when many of your rivals for the (ahem) World Series have been fortified with bonafide starting pitching?

[notin]

We have one guy-one-Pivetta, that we have a fair idea what to expect from him. The rest are all major question marks in some way.

 

Hoping they don’t move Houck to the rotation. I don’t like the idea of a starting five that has 3 pitchers who ended last year on the Injured List.

 

But of they do, please backfill Houck’s role in the bullpen…

[notin]

Even if there's an infinitesimal chance that Sale and Paxton both make healthy comebacks and turn back the clock, is relying on a miracle a sound strategy for improvement... when many of your rivals for the (ahem) World Series have been fortified with bonafide starting pitching?

 

And exactly why are you complaining about that? Who was the last team to win World Series with a pitching staff built through free agency?

 

The notion of staying competitive by paying players in their 30s all the way into their 40s for what they did in their 20s might not yield the results you think it will…

Edited December 24, 2022 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And exactly why are you complaining about that? Who was the last team to win World Series with a pitching staff built through free agency?

 

The notion of staying competitive by paying players in their 30s all the way into their 40s for what they did in their 20s might not yield the results you think it will…

 

You mean what all the GMs who pay for pitching every single winter think...

 

Meanwhile, the last-place Red Sox will just rely on four starters rehabbing from injuries or surgeries to contend for the World Series, absolutely.

[moonslav59]

I think the issue with the innings for the guys you mentioned isn't health concerns, it's the fact they are inexperienced and unproven at the MLB level.

 

Yes, of course, but we don't need all of these guys to do very well.

 

I will say, we can't afford to go through 5-6 of these guys before hitting on one who does well. We might be out of it by then, but we have a lot of choices, and it might come down to the order we choose from them.

 

Bello pretty mush has to do well.

 

Maybe one from Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold.

 

Maybe one from Kelly and German.

 

It might be asking too much to hope for immediate success from 1 or 2 from these guys, but it's not impossible:

 

Mata

Walter

Murphy

Santos

Longshots: Ort, DHern, Shugart

 

Of course, we also need at least one of our oft-injured vet pitchers to come back: Sale or Paxton.

 

We need Pivetta to be steady.

 

We need Whitlock to give us 150 solid.

 

We need the pen to do as good as they look on paper and maybe one from Taylor, Brasier, Mills and Barnes to find the groove they showed in at least one season in the last 4-5 years. Houck could be a big key, too.

 

Our staff is not hopeless, but adding Kluber and Fulmer or one solid SP'er via trade would help, a lot.

[moonslav59]

Hoping they don’t move Houck to the rotation. I don’t like the idea of a starting five that has 3 pitchers who ended last year on the Injured List.

 

But of they do, please backfill Houck’s role in the bullpen…

 

Would signing Klub er and Fulmer make anyone very happy with our staff? (It would almost certainly mean Brasier would be DFA'd, so there is that!)

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, of course, but we don't need all of these guys to do very well.

 

I will say, we can't afford to go through 5-6 of these guys before hitting on one who does well. We might be out of it by then, but we have a lot of choices, and it might come down to the order we choose from them.

 

Bello pretty mush has to do well.

 

Maybe one from Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold.

 

Maybe one from Kelly and German.

 

It might be asking too much to hope for immediate success from 1 or 2 from these guys, but it's not impossible:

 

Mata

Walter

Murphy

Santos

Longshots: Ort, DHern, Shugart

 

Of course, we also need at least one of our oft-injured vet pitchers to come back: Sale or Paxton.

 

We need Pivetta to be steady.

 

We need Whitlock to give us 150 solid.

 

We need the pen to do as good as they look on paper and maybe one from Taylor, Brasier, Mills and Barnes to find the groove they showed in at least one season in the last 4-5 years. Houck could be a big key, too.

 

Our staff is not hopeless, but adding Kluber and Fulmer or one solid SP'er via trade would help, a lot.

 

I think it'll be malpractice if they don't add that solid SP'er.

[moonslav59]

I think it'll be malpractice if they don't add that solid SP'er.

 

I'm not even sure Kluber or Nate clears them of malpractice.

 

I'd like to see us trade for a solid #2 and sign Flumer, so we can DFA Brasier, once and for all, and bump Crawford, Wink & Co to AAA.

[notin]

I'm not even sure Kluber or Nate clears them of malpractice.

 

I'd like to see us trade for a solid #2 and sign Flumer, so we can DFA Brasier, once and for all, and bump Crawford, Wink & Co to AAA.

 

Simple question - last off-season, when it was actually happening, we were pretty hopeful, at least until we learned Sale had a broken rib and was going to miss 2-3 months.

 

Now is this team better or worse than last year’s?

 

The Sox have replaced JD Martinez (OPS+ 117) with Justin Turner (OPS+ 116), replaced Xander Bogaerts with Matadaka Yoshida (who, if he is like Nimmo, can replace Bogaerts’ bat), and added Casas and a bullpen.

 

Eovaldi is out. Bello is in. Sale and Paxton (7 IP last year combined) certainly can contribute less, albeit not by much.

 

They absolutely need more pitching depth, be it Kluber or Greinke or one of the Marlins. And other pieces can be added. A SS or 2b or CF would go a long way, too.

 

But how much worse is this team from the 78-84 team last year?

[Bellhorn04]

Simple question - last off-season, when it was actually happening, we were pretty hopeful, at least until we learned Sale had a broken rib and was going to miss 2-3 months.

 

Now is this team better or worse than last year’s?

 

The Sox have replaced JD Martinez (OPS+ 117) with Justin Turner (OPS+ 116), replaced Xander Bogaerts with Matadaka Yoshida (who, if he is like Nimmo, can replace Bogaerts’ bat), and added Casas and a bullpen.

 

Eovaldi is out. Bello is in. Sale and Paxton (7 IP last year combined) certainly can contribute less, albeit not by much.

 

They absolutely need more pitching depth, be it Kluber or Greinke or one of the Marlins. And other pieces can be added. A SS or 2b or CF would go a long way, too.

 

But how much worse is this team from the 78-84 team last year?

 

Bogaerts was a 6 WAR player last year. You can start from there.

 

We haven't replaced Eovaldi, Wacha or Hill.

[notin]

Bogaerts was a 6 WAR player last year. You can start from there.

 

We haven't replaced Eovaldi, Wacha or Hill.

 

And we don’t start playing games for 3 months.

 

Those 3 pitchers all throw less than 130 IP and had dangerous peripherals. They’re not some irreplaceable core.

 

You don’t think Yoshida and a new bullpen offsets some of Bogaerts’ 6 fWAR?

[a700hitter]

Bloom must have a trade for a starter in the works. It's the only thing that makes sense.

Maybe he will add Eovaldi and Wacha to round out a foursome for golf with Sale and Paxton while they are all on the DL.

[moonslav59]

Simple question - last off-season, when it was actually happening, we were pretty hopeful, at least until we learned Sale had a broken rib and was going to miss 2-3 months.

 

Now is this team better or worse than last year’s?

 

The Sox have replaced JD Martinez (OPS+ 117) with Justin Turner (OPS+ 116), replaced Xander Bogaerts with Matadaka Yoshida (who, if he is like Nimmo, can replace Bogaerts’ bat), and added Casas and a bullpen.

 

Eovaldi is out. Bello is in. Sale and Paxton (7 IP last year combined) certainly can contribute less, albeit not by much.

 

They absolutely need more pitching depth, be it Kluber or Greinke or one of the Marlins. And other pieces can be added. A SS or 2b or CF would go a long way, too.

 

But how much worse is this team from the 78-84 team last year?

 

The way I see it, we need to match or improve from the 2021 team. We can get better than 2022 and still finish last, but I have actually made this point several times, already.

 

Compared to 2022, I see us as being odds on favorites to improve on these positions (assuming we add a SS and SP):

 

1B: Casas > Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer

2B: Story> Story/Arroyo/Sanchez-Downs

3B: Devers> Devers

LF: Yoshida> Dugo/Pham

CF: Kike> Kike/Duran

RF: Dugo/Ref> JBJ/Dugo/Ref/Cordero

DH: Turner> 2022 JD

 

Maybe equal:

C: McGuire/Wong= Vaz/Plawecki (counting D and staff handling)

 

Much Worse:

______

 

Pitching:

2023 Pen >>> 2022 Pen

 

The rotation is the great undecided and almost impossible to predict with so many returning from injuries, and trying to figure out just how good Wacha, Nate and Hill were, last year.

 

Pivetta = Pivetta

Sale =/> Sale

Paxton =/> Paxton

Whitlock=/> Wacha

Bello =/> Bello & Hill

______ ??> Nate

 

Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter> Crawford/Wink/Seabold

[Bellhorn04]

And we don’t start playing games for 3 months.

 

Those 3 pitchers all throw less than 130 IP and had dangerous peripherals. They’re not some irreplaceable core.

 

You don’t think Yoshida and a new bullpen offsets some of Bogaerts’ 6 fWAR?

 

The bullpen adds are good. Yoshida carries a lot of X factor. I hope he does well.

 

If we call all those a wash, we're still a 78 win team.

[moonslav59]

The bullpen adds are good. Yoshida carries a lot of X factor. I hope he does well.

 

If we call all those a wash, we're still a 78 win team.

 

Can you specifically say where the odds are I am wrong on these rundowns by position?

 

(BTW, I counted the pen as one position, when we actually should improve on 6 of 8 pen slots as well as AAA depth)

 

Compared to 2022, I see us as being odds on favorites to improve on these positions (assuming we add a SS and SP):

 

1B: Casas > Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer

2B: Story> Story/Arroyo/Sanchez-Downs

3B: Devers> Devers

LF: Yoshida> Dugo/Pham

CF: Kike> Kike/Duran

RF: Dugo/Ref> JBJ/Dugo/Ref/Cordero

DH: Turner> 2022 JD

 

Maybe equal:

C: McGuire/Wong= Vaz/Plawecki (counting D and staff handling)

 

Much Worse:

______

 

Pitching:

2023 Pen >>> 2022 Pen

 

The rotation is the great undecided and almost impossible to predict with so many returning from injuries, and trying to figure out just how good Wacha, Nate and Hill were, last year.

 

Pivetta = Pivetta

Sale =/> Sale

Paxton =/> Paxton

Whitlock=/> Wacha

Bello =/> Bello & Hill

______ ??> Nate

 

Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter> Crawford/Wink/Seabold

[Bellhorn04]

Can you specifically say where the odds are I am wrong on these rundowns by position?

 

(BTW, I counted the pen as one position, when we actually should improve on 6 of 8 pen slots as well as AAA depth)

 

Compared to 2022, I see us as being odds on favorites to improve on these positions (assuming we add a SS and SP):

 

1B: Casas > Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer

2B: Story> Story/Arroyo/Sanchez-Downs

3B: Devers> Devers

LF: Yoshida> Dugo/Pham

CF: Kike> Kike/Duran

RF: Dugo/Ref> JBJ/Dugo/Ref/Cordero

DH: Turner> 2022 JD

 

Maybe equal:

C: McGuire/Wong= Vaz/Plawecki (counting D and staff handling)

 

Much Worse:

______

 

Pitching:

2023 Pen >>> 2022 Pen

 

The rotation is the great undecided and almost impossible to predict with so many returning from injuries, and trying to figure out just how good Wacha, Nate and Hill were, last year.

 

Pivetta = Pivetta

Sale =/> Sale

Paxton =/> Paxton

Whitlock=/> Wacha

Bello =/> Bello & Hill

______ ??> Nate

 

Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter> Crawford/Wink/Seabold

 

The rotation is the X factor for sure. It could be surprisingly good, or it could be a disaster of biblical proportions.

 

Having this much X factor usually doesn't work out well.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Red Foreman]

22 IP 22 ERA 22 fWAR 22 bWAR

Pivetta 179.67 4.56 1.50 2.60

Whitlock 78.33 3.45 1.40 1.80

Sale 5.67 3.18 0.20 0.00

Paxton 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bello 57.33 4.71 1.30 0.40

Crawford 77.67 5.47 0.50 0.20

Winckowski 70.67 5.89 0.00 -0.30

Seabold 18.33 11.29 -0.20 -1.00

Houck 60.00 3.15 0.70 1.60

 

Average 60.85 4.77 0.60 0.59

 

 

At least their rms are rested.

[moonslav59]

The rotation is the X factor for sure. It could be surprisingly good, or it could be a disaster of biblical proportions.

 

Having this much X factor usually doesn't work out well.

 

Do you agree that we look better, if even slightly at 6-7 slots and even at 1-2 slots in the 9 everyday player positions, assuming Story at 2B?

 

That's got to make up for losing Bogey's O and D.

 

The pen looks way better on paper.

 

That leaves the rotation and a couple months to try and upgrade it to near what we had in 2022 and 2021, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Can you specifically say where the odds are I am wrong on these rundowns by position?

 

You're assuming that Devers, Story and Kike are all going to be healthier than last year. The odds are you're right, but it's no sure thing, plus other players may get injured. There are always injuries.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The rotation is the X factor for sure. It could be surprisingly good, or it could be a disaster of biblical proportions.

 

Having this much X factor usually doesn't work out well.

 

Meanwhile, here are Xtra factors to the other AL East rotations... NY: Rodon, Toronto: Bassitt, Baltimore: Gibson, Tampa: Eflin.

 

None are guaranteed to be good, but they're all definitely better than the zero free agent starters Bloom has added.