Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[moonslav59]

You're assuming that Devers, Story and Kike are all going to be healthier than last year. The odds are you're right, but it's no sure thing, plus other players may get injured. There are always injuries.

 

Nothing is a sure thing. You are right. Hell, Andrus might out hit Bogey.

 

All we can do is go by expectations and projections, and as of right now, assuming Story stays at 2B, I think we should be batter at 7 of 9 batting order slots, about even at catcher and much worse at SS.

 

I see our pen being vastly better, despite losing Strahm and Whitlock moving to the rotation. It's better at the top, middle and bottom, as well as the AAA depth looks better, on paper.

 

The rotation is hard to project and compare, since we had so many moving parts, last year and very few SP'ers with a lot of IP or GS'd. It looks worse, to me, on paper, but even without adding anyone else, just better health might make it much better.

 

Again, overall, just saying better than the last place team might not be very exciting, but I'm seeing quite a bit to be optimistic about, and I'm not even counting a Sale and or Paxton rebound, or a Barnes and Taylor rebound, or any improvement from Dugo, Arroyo, Dalbec, Pivetta or others that are not really beyond prime and could easily have a better year in 2023.

 

Just flip 2021 with 2022 for these players not past prime, and that alone could do wonders:

 

2021>2022 OPS+

 

141>134 Devers

108> 75 Kike

107> 102 Dugo (117 in 2019-2020 combined)

107> 80 Dalbec

 

Story 117 OPS+ (2018-2021) > 102 in 2022.

[moonslav59]

Meanwhile, here are Xtra factors to the other AL East rotations... NY: Rodon, Toronto: Bassitt, Baltimore: Gibson, Tampa: Eflin.

 

None are guaranteed to be good, but they're all definitely better than the zero free agent starters Bloom has added.

 

Factor in what those team's lost in their rotations and pen:

 

NYY: Taillon (3.91 in 177 IP) & Montgomery (3.69 in 115 IP) plus a few key pen pieces

TOR: Stripling (3.01 ERA in 134 IP)

TBR: Kluber (4.34 ERA but the team leader in GS at 31 and 2nd in IP at 164)

BAL: Lyles (4.42 ERA but also blew everyone else away in GS 31 and IP at 179.)

 

Our rotation gains Whitlock and maybe Sale and Paxton plus a full year from Bello.

 

I think we will add another SP'er by opening day, too. (So may the other AL East teams.)

[Bellhorn04]

2021>2022 OPS+

 

141>134 Devers

108> 75 Kike

107> 102 Dugo (117 in 2019-2020 combined)

107> 80 Dalbec

 

Story 117 OPS+ (2018-2021) > 102 in 2022.

 

Devers was 134 in 2021, 141 in 2022.

[dgalehouse]

I would prefer Eovaldi over Kluber. Still would like to see another hard thrower or two in the bullpen. Why not Sale or Paxton? As for Story, he needs to cut down on his absenteeism.

[notin]

I would prefer Eovaldi over Kluber. Still would like to see another hard thrower or two in the bullpen. Why not Sale or Paxton? As for Story, he needs to cut down on his absenteeism.

 

I think there is room for both.

 

But my preference order right more is Kluber, Greinke, Eovaldi…

[notin]

Meanwhile, here are Xtra factors to the other AL East rotations... NY: Rodon, Toronto: Bassitt, Baltimore: Gibson, Tampa: Eflin.

 

None are guaranteed to be good, but they're all definitely better than the zero free agent starters Bloom has added.

 

If the Sox had acquired Gibson, whose ERA has been over 5.00 two years running, would you count him as a positive or a negative?

 

I’d take Whitlock over Gibson. And Eflin…

[Bellhorn04]

It only stands to reason Bloom is going to add a starter.

 

But the distressing thing is you can't be sure what Bloom is going to do. He never does what anyone here predicts as far as signings go.

[moonslav59]

It only stands to reason Bloom is going to add a starter.

 

But the distressing thing is you can't be sure what Bloom is going to do. He never does what anyone here predicts as far as signings go.

 

He might add two more LF/DHs!

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the thing. We finished 8 games out of the playoffs last year and 21 back in the division. Those are the deltas we have to make up. On top of that we lose our best player. And we had all that money coming off the books. That's why they were expected to be quite aggressive this offseason. It seems to be more of the wishy-washy approach that some accuse Bloom of at last year's deadline.

[moonslav59]

Here's the thing. We finished 8 games out of the playoffs last year and 21 back in the division. Those are the deltas we have to make up. On top of that we lose our best player. And we had all that money coming off the books. That's why they were expected to be quite aggressive this offseason. It seems to be more of the wishy-washy approach that some accuse Bloom of at last year's deadline.

 

I certainly expected more quality than quantity, this year- thinking we had more money to spend and less slots to fill.

 

We may not spend that "more money" and may just match last winter's spending while losing a lot more talent than we did before last winter.

 

8-9 players added? I do n't get it.

 

No spending the $80M remains to be seen, but unless we trade for salary, we'd have to buy up the best 3 FAs to spend it all.

[Bellhorn04]

Everyone is entitled to their outlooks.

 

Merry Christmas, folks. Just having a rum and egg nog right now.

[moonslav59]

Everyone is entitled to their outlooks.

 

Merry Christmas, folks. Just having a rum and egg nog right now.

 

Merry Christmas, too you, too.

 

Maybe the new year will be happier than we think.

 

Merry Christmas to everyone. Dinner is almost ready. I made a sweet potato caserole for the first time. Crossing my fingers. (It's gluten and sugar free!)

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a truly terrifying stat from 2022:

 

Red Sox pitchers had a collective ERA of 5.22 after the All-Star Break.

 

And if you say it's because we had to use guys like Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold too much, well, as it stands, they're apparently an integral part of the plan for 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

I think there is room for both.

 

But my preference order right more is Kluber, Greinke, Eovaldi…

 

If he doesn't add one of those, or make a trade for a starter, I'm going to have no choice but to believe Bloom is certifiably insane...

[Bellhorn04]

I somehow forgot to include these stunning numbers, the 2022 fWAR's of our 2023 rotation & depth.

 

Pivetta 1.5

Whitlock 1.4

Bello 1.3

Houck 0.7

Crawford 0.5

Sale 0.2

Wink 0.0

Pax 0.0

Seabold -0.2

 

Total 5.4 fWAR

 

And oh yeah, Bogey's 2022 fWAR was 6.1, more than the entire 9 listed above.

 

But everything's gonna just be way better this year...

[moonslav59]

I somehow forgot to include these stunning numbers, the 2022 fWAR's of our 2023 rotation & depth.

 

Pivetta 1.5

Whitlock 1.4

Bello 1.3

Houck 0.7

Crawford 0.5

Sale 0.2

Wink 0.0

Pax 0.0

Seabold -0.2

 

Total 5.4 fWAR

 

And oh yeah, Bogey's 2022 fWAR was 6.1, more than the entire 9 listed above.

 

But everything's gonna just be way better this year...

 

I'm not sure anyone has pointed to the rotation and said it's going to be better. I had hoped adding a solid #1/2 was a top winter priority. It looks like adding a solid #3 in Kluber or Nate is all we can do via free agency, and I doubt we are prepared to trade top prospects for a 1/2, right now, so we will be needing a lot of what ifs to come true, and this is getting tiresome and frustrating as all hell.

 

For all the blame being thrown at Bloom, he did a fine job adding solid pitching at a very low cost, last winter. fWAR:

1.8 Hill at $5M (0.9 bWAR)

1.5 Wacha at $7M (3.3 bWAR)

0.3 Strahm at $3M (0.3 bWAR)

 

(plus RP'er 1.7 Schreiber at dirt (2.7 bWAR)

 

No starters added, this winter, so far is frightening. Moving Whitlock and doubling his IP and fWAR should help. Hopefully, and here I'm going off on what ifs, again, Bello improves and triples his IP. Those two would then give us this:

 

3.9 Bello at 173 IP

2.8 Whitlock at 157 IP

1.5 Pivetta at 180 IP

 

I'm not counting on Sale or Paxton, perhaps ever again. I'm hoping they can combine for 180 IP and maybe a 2.5 fWAR, but we need to plan on 80 IP and 1.0 WAR from both combined.

 

We need a solid and dependable SP'er added before opening day, and I don't mean Houck or Mata.

 

Kluber would be a help, but still falls short of what I not only hoped for but expected. Adding Kluber and maybe someone like a Luzardo would satisfy me, but what do we need to give up for Luzardo? Better yet, what would it take to get Luzardo & Rojas from the Marlins (not the rumored Wendle?)

 

27.1 Luzardo (4 yrs)

5.9 Rojas (1 yr)

33 value total

 

We could take on a salary dump like -26 A Garcia, -20.9 Soler or -0.7 Bleier, but I'm not sure that is possible. Maybe give them Dugo for A Garcia as part of the package.

 

33 Value would mean something like:

 

33.2 Bello (Nope. It would be a step down at SP'er.)

18.5 Houck + 15.1 Rafaela (Mmmmm....)

18.5 Houck + 8.0 Yorke + 6.7 Verdugo (Maybe)

15.1 Rafaela + 8.0 Yorke + 8.7 Romero (Maybe)

 

In theory, adding A Garcia and his salary would only need Verdugo:

 

Verdugo for A Garcia, Luzardo and Rojas. I'd give more. If they want Duran (5.9), of course, no problem. I'd give up Murphy (3.6) + Lugo (5.6), which would be an big overpay, according to BTV, but I'd do it. Others like Seabold (2.9) or Winckowski (2.6) could be added or substituted for Murphy, Duran or Lugo, if they preferred one of them.

 

I may be way off base, but I think a deal like that would make me happy and is not unrealistic. (Plus signing Kluber and or Fulmer)

 

We could drop the Rojas ask and sign Andrus, instead, but I think he wants and will get 3 years. With Mayer a year or year and a half away, I doubt we do that, although we could trade Andrus, later.

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sung to the beat of If I Only Had A Brain:

 

I would pitch in Oklahoma

If Yoshida hits a homer

Or we'll face the Old Red's wrath

 

Kike moving to the infield

Makes the Red Sox team way better

If we only had a staff...

[moonslav59]

Sung to the beat of If I Only Had A Brain:

 

I would pitch in Oklahoma

If Yoshida hits a homer

Or we'll face the Old Red's wrath

 

Kike moving to the infield

Makes the Red Sox team way better

If we only had a staff...

 

I baffles my mind they may move two excellent defenders off their best positions rather than find a 1 year SS.

 

Now, that may be a fireable offense by Bloom, but curiously, the Bloom-bashers seem to miss the obvious ones.

Edited December 27, 2022 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I baffles my mind they may move two excellent defenders off their best positions rather than find a 1 year SS.

 

Now, that may be a fireable offense by Bloom, but curiously, the Bloom-bashers seem to miss the obvious ones.

 

Well, there are bashers who focus on the obvious stuff, and bashers who focus on the less obvious stuff. The way things are going, there's a lot to choose from.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, there are bashers who focus on the obvious stuff, and bashers who focus on the less obvious stuff. The way things are going, there's a lot to choose from.

 

It's a thad, thad, thad, thad ward.

[Bellhorn04]

It's a thad, thad, thad, thad ward.

 

It's a thad song. Not the way it ort to be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's a thad song. Not the way it ort to be.

 

MVP just cut his wrists with braiser lades.

[Bellhorn04]

If there's one thing Red Sox fans can count on in the midst of all this turmoil and negativity, it's Ryan Brasier.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If there's one thing Red Sox fans can count on in the midst of all this turmoil and negativity, it's Ryan Brasier.

 

Music soothes the savage breast. Anyone noah song?

[moonslav59]

Well, there are bashers who focus on the obvious stuff, and bashers who focus on the less obvious stuff. The way things are going, there's a lot to choose from.

 

Story could be a fine SS, but I would not risk blowing out his arm. He should be better on D than Bogey, at SS, especially with no shift, anymore.

 

Kike is fine at 2B but not as good as Story.

 

Who plays CF? Ref or Dugo? YUCK!

 

If Story plays SS, I'd rather just go with Arroyo & EValdez at 2B.

[moonslav59]

If there's one thing Red Sox fans can count on in the midst of all this turmoil and negativity, it's Ryan Brasier.

 

Another head-scratcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Brasier may end up as the Face of the Franchise.

 

(Sorry. I know that's a very sick joke.)

[Old Red]

Rich Hill to the Pirates for 1yr/$8M. Good for him that he gets to pitch another year, but going to Pittsburg not so good.

[moonslav59]

Lots of raises and big raises to ex-Sox players.

[Bellhorn04]

So as it stands, we're going into the season with a nice combination of injury risk (Sale, Paxton), journeyman mediocrity (Pivetta), and inexperience (the rest).