Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[moonslav59]

You were never a big fan of Vaz anyway. I think the real question is what happens up the middle. If they move Kiké off CF to SS, it's a big mistake. If they keep Story at 2B and sign Andrus for SS, the defense is better if health isn't a concern.

 

True on my feelings for Vaz and staff-handling, but having Plawecki and Leon did help balance that out a bit, as they caddied certain key SP'ers. I'm not sure Wong will add to McGuire or subtract from him, and he's already a question mark.

 

I do think finding a SS is vital. It keeps Story at 2B and Kike at CF- both solid defenders. It should not be hard to improve on Bogey's D, especially his non-shift D.

 

If the team's success hinge slargely on finding an upgrade at SS defense, how hard is that?

 

I'd like to see more than just that, but this one thing should not be hard to do.

 

We have $28M to spend and can afford to trade some non top prospects to add enough to make the 2023 team significantly better at pitching, hitting and defense.

 

And, it's not magic. It just will take a normal number of injuries, or less, and not as many vet drop offs as we saw in 2022.

 

We also have 10-12 promising prospects or recent grads ready to step in, if needed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Welcome my son

Welcome to the machine

What did you dream?

It's alright we told you what to dream

 

The lunatics won't be on the grass, but in the seats. Or they'll be on edibles.

[Bellhorn04]

The lunatics won't be on the grass, but in the seats. Or they'll be on edibles.

 

Wearing Pink Floyd Hats.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, this rotation blows and you know it. Kluber is a 4-5. He is a soft tossing, homer prone guy who’ll give you a mid to high 4ERA in Fenway and get shitstomped by the Yanks

 

Sale has the highest upside but gets hurt when the wind blows

 

Bello will be your ace at year end if he stays healthy. Big innings jump last year in a high velo pitcher makes you concerned for injury

 

Paxton is the definition of getting paid a fortune to do nothing. He’s never healthy. Ever. If he takes the mound as a Red Sox, then that’s a win for you. In any capacity. Ever

 

Pivetta is Kluber with far worse command and a better fastball

 

Whitlock is hittable as a starter. His arsenal is deep enough, not sure why it doesn’t translate. IMO, Whitlock will be in your pen next year after flaming out in the rotation to start 2023

 

Houck will be your setup man

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Guys, this rotation blows and you know it.

 

I've been one of the most vocal about pursuing high end starting pitching -- guys in their primes -- even for a last place team. Windows and taxes mean nothing if a club can't climb out of the cellar. Rebuilds have to begin on the mound, and stability starts at the top of the rotation.

 

Bloom allowed three starters to walk -- obviously, they weren't great, because the '22 season sucked. But the three old vets they're counting on to replace them have done nothing to gain the trust of even optimistic Red Sox fans. They can demean Eovaldi's health history, but can't deny he was an All-Star just two years ago with Cy Young votes. The last time Kluber earned any such status was 2018.

 

The only hope for the future is that youngsters emerge and push out the brittle placeholders. Some might get their chance earlier than expected, when the rehabbers inevitably break down. Just like last year.

[Bellhorn04]

When jax starts one of his posts with "Guys," nothing good can possibly follow.

[Old Red]

When jax starts one of his posts with "Guys," nothing good can possibly follow.

 

Maybe, but I would say jax summed things up pretty well. I still say that Kluber was another one of those 3rd options in the fork in the road, and was the CHEAP option compared to Evol, and Wacha, and not , because he was the better pitcher. Keep dreaming of a bridge to some young suspect arms that may never hold up a bridge of any kind. Plenty of young suspect arms, but how many are really prospects.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe, but I would say jax summed things up pretty well. I still say that Kluber was another one of those 3rd options in the fork in the road, and was the CHEAP option compared to Evol, and Wacha, and not , because he was the better pitcher. Keep dreaming of a bridge to some young suspect arms that may never hold up a bridge of any kind. Plenty of young suspect arms, but how many are really prospects.

 

Dreaming? Why, would you rather spend market rates on Rodon -- he's so injury-prone... oh, and he's really good now.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but I would say jax summed things up pretty well. I still say that Kluber was another one of those 3rd options in the fork in the road, and was the CHEAP option compared to Evol, and Wacha, and not , because he was the better pitcher. Keep dreaming of a bridge to some young suspect arms that may never hold up a bridge of any kind. Plenty of young suspect arms, but how many are really prospects.

 

How much do you think Wacha is going to get?

 

(Predicted answer: more than Kluber.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How much do you think Wacha is going to get?

 

(Predicted answer: more than Kluber.)

 

And he should, and not just because Wacha was better than Kluber last year. It's because Wacha is six years younger...

 

... I'm just cranky this AM, about the chances of a team intentionally stalling its progress (unless all of that is letting the farmhands develop).

[Bellhorn04]

And he should, and not just because Wacha was better than Kluber last year. It's because Wacha is six years younger...

 

... I'm just cranky this AM, about the chances of a team intentionally stalling its progress (unless all of that is letting the farmhands develop).

 

Wacha had better conventional numbers last year, but his advanced numbers were not as good, and he got treated like a pinata in his final two starts, which may have signaled where things were headed.

 

Anyway, we now have the excitement of seeing whether or not Old Red is right about Wacha getting a bigger payday than Kluber.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wacha had better conventional numbers last year, but his advanced numbers were not as good, and he got treated like a pinata in his final two starts, which may have signaled where things were headed.

 

Anyway, we now have the excitement of seeing whether or not Old Red is right about Wacha getting a bigger payday than Kluber.

 

Unless he's known damaged goods across the industry, someone's gotta give Wacha three years... right? Younger than Tyler Anderson, better than Eflin, same age as Heaney, who's never done anything... Even if he's hurting, Wacha still might get twice the year as Kluber.

[Bellhorn04]

Unless he's known damaged goods across the industry, someone's gotta give Wacha three years... right? Younger than Tyler Anderson, better than Eflin, same age as Heaney, who's never done anything... Even if he's hurting, Wacha still might get twice the year as Kluber.

 

I'm skeptical about Wacha. He was pretty awful in 2019, 2020 and 2021. He changed his pitch mix at the end of 2021 and that seemed to pay off for a while, but he also got injured and he also got teed off on his last two starts.

 

I'm on record saying he gets less than Kluber.

[Old Red]

How much do you think Wacha is going to get?

 

(Predicted answer: more than Kluber.)

 

I don’t know what the holdup is on him signing, and maybe it’s years, but I think it’s more than what Kluber got.

[Old Red]

Dreaming? Why, would you rather spend market rates on Rodon -- he's so injury-prone... oh, and he's really good now.

 

No on Rondon, but I’m just saying with building a bridge on a bunch of young prospects/suspects who may never turn out is taking a big chance, and dreaming. Even Bello at this point is nothing more than promise.

[moonslav59]

Guys, this rotation blows and you know it. Kluber is a 4-5. He is a soft tossing, homer prone guy who’ll give you a mid to high 4ERA in Fenway and get shitstomped by the Yanks

 

Sale has the highest upside but gets hurt when the wind blows

 

Bello will be your ace at year end if he stays healthy. Big innings jump last year in a high velo pitcher makes you concerned for injury

 

Paxton is the definition of getting paid a fortune to do nothing. He’s never healthy. Ever. If he takes the mound as a Red Sox, then that’s a win for you. In any capacity. Ever

 

Pivetta is Kluber with far worse command and a better fastball

 

Whitlock is hittable as a starter. His arsenal is deep enough, not sure why it doesn’t translate. IMO, Whitlock will be in your pen next year after flaming out in the rotation to start 2023

 

Houck will be your setup man

 

Whitlock has 9 career GS'd and has seen his role jerked around a bit more than I'd like to have seen. I think the "not sure why it doesn't translate" is based on too small a sample size, but certainly, I have concerns about moving him out of a role, he seemed to flourish in- long relief in high leverage situations.

 

I'm not counting on Sale or Paxton for anything. I do think they may reach 32-33 GS'd, combined, but counting on even that may be more wishful thinking that anything based on logic or trends.

 

If Pivetta remains our #5, he one of the best #5's in MLB, hands-down. If we need him to be our #3, we're in trouble, and with Paxton & Sale needed to get 33 starts between them to make that happen, it looks like he might be our #4, before the season even starts.

 

Kluber would be fine as a #4, but the same worries about him moving up to #3- as Pivetta to #4 are there. If he's the #4, we'll have a plus- not a minus vs most teams at #4.

 

Whitlock and Bello are both the keys, but we might also see a boost from just one, maybe two, from this long list of young rotation depth:

Mata

Walter

Crawford

Murphy

Winckowski

Seabold

(Drohan/Santos or Houck in a pinch)

 

I realize some on this list have already been tried without seeing much promise, but we don't need 5-6 of these guys to step up- just one or two... maybe.

 

I don't think it's as bad as you make it out to be.

 

You hated our 2021 rotation from day one.

 

You hated our 2022 rotation from day one, and Wacha & Hill did way better than you and many others expected.

 

Your track record is something that actually gives us hope, if you say the rotation sucks.

[moonslav59]

I've been one of the most vocal about pursuing high end starting pitching -- guys in their primes -- even for a last place team. Windows and taxes mean nothing if a club can't climb out of the cellar. Rebuilds have to begin on the mound, and stability starts at the top of the rotation.

 

Bloom allowed three starters to walk -- obviously, they weren't great, because the '22 season sucked. But the three old vets they're counting on to replace them have done nothing to gain the trust of even optimistic Red Sox fans. They can demean Eovaldi's health history, but can't deny he was an All-Star just two years ago with Cy Young votes. The last time Kluber earned any such status was 2018.

 

The only hope for the future is that youngsters emerge and push out the brittle placeholders. Some might get their chance earlier than expected, when the rehabbers inevitably break down. Just like last year.

 

The problem is, bringing back Nate, Wacha and Hill would not have projected us to be any better in 2023 than 2022, and their ages and flukiness on the 2022 numbers actually hinted at them being worse or much worse in 2023, let alone beyond. I agree, we did need to replace them "in kind," but adding Whitlock and a full year of Bello is a significant replacement to part of what was lost. Remember, Nate, Wacha and Hill started 69 games. That's really only 2 SP'ers worth of starts needing replacement, and 20 more starts from Whitlock and Bello equals 40, and 29 from Kluber = 69.

 

The biggest contracts given to FA SP'ers, this winter, are not the kind I would have supported us adding. When we signed Price, I knew we paid too much and for too long, but he was a solid ace who projected to give us 3-5 very good to great seasons. I do not see that from this year's crop.

 

I had hoped we'd bite the bullet and trade a top prospect or two for a controllable ace or solid #2, but it doesn't look like the prospect trade moratorium has been lifted, and may never be lifted, again.

 

Within the context of knowing we have a limited budget and will continue resetting every 1-2 years, I'm glad we didn't sign deGrom or Rodon. Maybe some of these aging stars on 1-2 year deals could have been doable, but I think the Kluber signing was one of the best value signings, this winter, and since we are resetting, it makes sense.

 

I hope we are not done for the winter. We can afford to sign Andrus and Wacha, and maybe even Fulmer, too. Let's do it!

Edited December 31, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

I've been one of the most vocal about pursuing high end starting pitching -- guys in their primes -- even for a last place team. Windows and taxes mean nothing if a club can't climb out of the cellar. Rebuilds have to begin on the mound, and stability starts at the top of the rotation.

 

Bloom allowed three starters to walk -- obviously, they weren't great, because the '22 season sucked. But the three old vets they're counting on to replace them have done nothing to gain the trust of even optimistic Red Sox fans. They can demean Eovaldi's health history, but can't deny he was an All-Star just two years ago with Cy Young votes. The last time Kluber earned any such status was 2018.

 

The only hope for the future is that youngsters emerge and push out the brittle placeholders. Some might get their chance earlier than expected, when the rehabbers inevitably break down. Just like last year.

 

The thing is, that’s really not the only way to rebuild a staff. It’s the simplest and most expensive way, however.

 

If you look at Tampa - and at this point, you really should be - they’ve made the postseason for 4 straight years and in that time only one SP has thrown more than 170 IP, and that was back in 2019 (Charlie Morton).

 

They won 100 games in 2021 with a staff lead in IP by Ryan Yarbrough. A guy they non-tendered this year. Having Shane McLanahan has helped them somewhat, but they’ve shown that when managed right, you don’t need a $100mill rotation to win.

 

And right now, the Sox rotation has a simple job - get the team threw 5-6 IP and keep it close…

[moonslav59]

The thing is, that’s really not the only way to rebuild a staff. It’s the simplest and most expensive way, however.

 

If you look at Tampa - and at this point, you really should be - they’ve made the postseason for 4 straight years and in that time only one SP has thrown more than 170 IP, and that was back in 2019 (Charlie Morton).

 

They won 100 games in 2021 with a staff lead in IP by Ryan Yarbrough. A guy they non-tendered this year. Having Shane McLanahan has helped them somewhat, but they’ve shown that when managed right, you don’t need a $100mill rotation to win.

 

And right now, the Sox rotation has a simple job - get the team threw 5-6 IP and keep it close…

 

Having a stronger pen will help the rotation. It's also a deeper pen, which should allow Cora to pull the starters earlier, if needed than in '21 or '22. Not having a longman like Whitlock, in the pen, might hurt some.

 

I really like our starter depth, this year. I'm high on Mata and Walter and still have hopes that one from Crawford, Wink and Seabold will take step up in '23. Then, there is Murphy, who might be pen depth.

[notin]

Having a stronger pen will help the rotation. It's also a deeper pen, which should allow Cora to pull the starters earlier, if needed than in '21 or '22. Not having a longman like Whitlock, in the pen, might hurt some.

 

I really like our starter depth, this year. I'm high on Mata and Walter and still have hopes that one from Crawford, Wink and Seabold will take step up in '23. Then, there is Murphy, who might be pen depth.

 

I think Winckowski and Whitlock belong in the pen. But Mata, Crawford, Murphy and Walter can try starting…

[Old Red]

Having a stronger pen will help the rotation. It's also a deeper pen, which should allow Cora to pull the starters earlier, if needed than in '21 or '22. Not having a longman like Whitlock, in the pen, might hurt some.

 

I really like our starter depth, this year. I'm high on Mata and Walter and still have hopes that one from Crawford, Wink and Seabold will take step up in '23. Then, there is Murphy, who might be pen depth.

 

Starter depth may be good, but quantity doesn’t always equate to quality, which I believe this is the case here. Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold are only #10, or #11 starters, and are only useable in situations like last year when starters are depleted, and only as a last option.

[moonslav59]

Starter depth may be good, but quantity doesn’t always equate to quality, which I believe this is the case here. Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold are only #10, or #11 starters, and are only useable in situations like last year when starters are depleted, and only as a last option.

 

I agree. I'd rather have quality than quantity, but if you look at history, almost every winning team had 20 or 30+ starts from their 6th, 7th or more starter depth. It is important, and I think our SP'er depth strength and numbers are the best I've seen in a long time.

 

Of course, I wish we had a better starting 5 than we do. Adding a solid #1 or #2 has been a top priority of mine for several years in a row. It's been my biggest criticism of our roster construction since the Sale trade.

 

I'm also not happy we spent over half our winter spending on a DH/LF'er and DH/3B-1Bman, while adding just Kluber to the staff and pretty much forcing the Whitlock move from the pen to the rotation.

 

Starter depth is a good thing, and it may be needed more with the starting 6 we have, right now, but I do wish we had a better starting 5, even if it meant a weaker 6-10.

[notin]

Starter depth may be good, but quantity doesn’t always equate to quality, which I believe this is the case here. Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold are only #10, or #11 starters, and are only useable in situations like last year when starters are depleted, and only as a last option.

 

 

Winckowski is 24 years old and has 70 MLB IP for his career. Giving up already?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing is, that’s really not the only way to rebuild a staff. It’s the simplest and most expensive way, however.

 

If you look at Tampa - and at this point, you really should be - they’ve made the postseason for 4 straight years and in that time only one SP has thrown more than 170 IP, and that was back in 2019 (Charlie Morton).

 

They won 100 games in 2021 with a staff lead in IP by Ryan Yarbrough. A guy they non-tendered this year. Having Shane McLanahan has helped them somewhat, but they’ve shown that when managed right, you don’t need a $100mill rotation to win.

 

And right now, the Sox rotation has a simple job - get the team threw 5-6 IP and keep it close…

 

Not sure I follow -- what way of a rebuild is most expensive? Signing the best free agents?

 

Or is that approach only good to put contenders over the top? For example, the 2009 Yankees -- the last Bronx tails to win a banner -- when they bought CC, AJ and Tex...

 

My point is that I don't care how they do it, the Red Sox better spend some resources on quality starting pitchers soon or they'll never get out of the cellar. Remember, the '04 Cursebreakers didn't give up much in past trades for Lowe, Martinez and Schilling -- though the latter two were certainly salary "dumps" of impending free agents that their clubs were ok taking 50 cents on the dollar (returns which in reality were more like 20 cents).

[moonslav59]

Not sure I follow -- what way of a rebuild is most expensive? Signing the best free agents?

 

Or is that approach only good to put contenders over the top? For example, the 2009 Yankees -- the last Bronx tails to win a banner -- when they bought CC, AJ and Tex...

 

My point is that I don't care how they do it, the Red Sox better spend some resources on quality starting pitchers soon or they'll never get out of the cellar. Remember, the '04 Cursebreakers didn't give up much in past trades for Lowe, Martinez and Schilling -- though the latter two were certainly salary "dumps" of impending free agents that their clubs were ok taking 50 cents on the dollar (returns which in reality were more like 20 cents).

 

Maybe, the plan is to develop SP'ers within the system: Bello, Mata, Walter...

 

Our history has certainly not supported this method, but the long term affects of signing and extending Price and Sale might be what changed their methodology.

 

I'm not defending it. It will take some time to see, if it works, and patience is running thin in Sox Nation, already.

[Old Red]

Winckowski is 24 years old and has 70 MLB IP for his career. Giving up already?

 

Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold yes.

[notin]

Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold yes.

 

 

I suppose this means you’ll also be rooting against them…

[moonslav59]

Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold yes.

 

I don't have much faith in either one, either. I like Crawford's chances better, but many good players start out, slowly.

 

I'm sure glad the Sox never gave up on Pedroia after his slow start that extended much longer than Wink & Seabolds.

 

.561 in 98 PAs in 2006 (31 games)

.603 in first 75 PAs of 2007 (23 games)

 

[moonslav59]

I suppose this means you’ll also be rooting against them…

 

He'll sure be huffing and puffing, if they do suck.

[moonslav59]

I suppose this means you’ll also be rooting against them…

 

One might same the same about us and Brasier.