Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[Old Red]

Absolutely I’d say he can be a good RP. I’d prefer they try him in that role this year.

 

I’ll say it - I think he could outperform Barnes…

 

That doesn’t surprise me at all considering you were asking if the Red Sox signed Turner just to put him on the bench.

[notin]

That doesn’t surprise me at all considering you were asking if the Red Sox signed Turner just to put him on the bench.

 

Again, you failed to read that properly…

[Old Red]

Again, you failed to read that properly…

 

Maybe you didn’t clarify, and you know what happens when that’s not done correctly.

[notin]

Maybe you didn’t clarify, and you know what happens when that’s not done correctly.

 

You freak out and demand to know exactly who needed it explained to them…

[Old Red]

You freak out and demand to know exactly who needed it explained to them…

 

Seems like the shoe is on the other foot now, and looks like a perfect fit.

[notin]

Seems like the shoe is on the other foot now, and looks like a perfect fit.

 

Nah. I never freaked out and said you didn’t need to make a post. I just have to call you out for the childish act of misrepresenting the ideas (and yes, even sarcasm and jokes) of others as a method of discrediting them…

[Old Red]

Nah. I never freaked out and said you didn’t need to make a post. I just have to call you out for the childish act of misrepresenting the ideas (and yes, even sarcasm and jokes) of others as a method of discrediting them…

 

I haven’t heard anyone, but you that wondered if the Red Sox signed Turner just to put him on the bench, and I’m pretty sure I won’t. You’ve got the floor all to yourself.

[notin]

I haven’t heard anyone, but you that wondered if the Red Sox signed Turner just to put him on the bench, and I’m pretty sure I won’t. You’ve got the floor all to yourself.

 

 

Do you recall the nature of that blatantly silly post?

[moonslav59]

Do you recall the nature of that blatantly silly post?

 

He doesn't do well with context or clarifications.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-add-corey-kluber-to-rotation-of-question-marks/

 

Kluber... makes sense for Boston in a lot of ways, and indeed the two parties have been pretty frank about their mutual interest over the years. The two-time Cy Young winner has lost some velocity since his prime, but velocity was never his main weapon, and his spin rates remain above average, which helps his pitches retain some of their value. Thanks also to a still-effective cutter, changeup, and curveball, he’s able to entice hitters to chase and produce weak contact as well as ever. In 2022, he finished with 3.0 WAR in 31 starts for the Rays; for context, no Boston pitcher reached 2.0 WAR.

 

Kluber also happens to be elite in one facet of the game that sticks out among Boston’s acquisitions this winter. After Red Sox pitching finished 21st in walk rate last season, they appear to be intent on winning the walk battle in 2023. Kluber has allowed fewer than two walks per nine over his whole career; his career-best 1.15 BB/9 rate led all qualifiers last year (among pitchers with 50-plus innings, the leader was Martin at 0.80). Having Chris Sale and James Paxton back in the mix would add two more above-average control pitchers after the losses of Eovaldi and the still un-signed Michael Wacha.

 

Kluber’s ability to control his pitches was a big part of what made him effective in 2022. He worked the fringes of the zone all year, improving his Edge% from 40.8% in 2021 to 44.3%, good for the 15th-best improvement among 228 qualifying pitchers per Statcast. His called strike percentage also increased, from 16.7% to 18.3%, the ninth-highest rate among major league qualifiers. Outside the zone, he induced a 35.7% chase rate, ranking in the 96th percentile in the league, and in many cases, bad swings led to bad contact.

Another factor that led to Kluber’s productive 2022 was a change in approach against righties, who went from a .352 wOBA against him in 2021 to a .309 mark in ’22. He ramped up his use of the cutter against same-handed hitters, going from 21.6% to 34.6%, making it his most-used pitch — and it was his most effective, too, at 5.8 runs above average. But he also was able to limit the damage done by right-handers on his sinker by bringing it up and inside instead of trying to beat them down and away with it.

 

Right-hander Nick Pivetta is the only true holdover from the 2022 rotation, and he struggled to find a consistent rhythm last year. Sale’s last three-plus seasons have featured a truly terrible string of luck: Tommy John surgery, a bout of COVID, a fractured rib followed by a non-baseball medical issue, a fractured pinky finger on a comebacker in his second and ultimately final start of last season, and a bicycle accident resulting in a broken wrist. Paxton has yet to make his Red Sox debut after suffering a lat tear during his own Tommy John recovery last summer. After a promising rookie stint in 2022, there’s hope that 23-year-old righty Brayan Bello could earn a rotation spot for years to come, and the Red Sox have told 26-year-olds Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to prepare to join the rotation, though the latter may be more likely to return to the bullpen with Kluber now in the mix.

 

That’s seven names, and if any five of them are pitching at or near their ceilings in 2023, they could make for a solid rotation. But each comes with his own concerns, and Kluber is the only one with even a 2.5-WAR season in any of the last three years. Red Sox fans will be holding their breath and crossing their fingers for good health.

[moonslav59]

Some Numbers...

 

Pivetta

4.00 ERA/3.97 FIP first 15 starts of 2021

5.11/4.62 last 15 starts of 2021

3.23/3.67 first 16 starts of 2022

6.0/5.25 last 17 starts of 2022

Maybe we need to yank him earlier in games of give him extra days rest, sometimes. The guy is like a 2/3 slot SP'er the first half and a 5/6 the second half.

 

Whitlock:

4.15 ERA/ 1.26 WHIP as a SP'er (39 IP/9 starts)

2.24 ERA/0.99 WHIP as RP'er (113 IPin 68 games)

Let's hope the starting sample size is too small to project out.

 

Kluber

4.34 ERA/3.57 FIP in 164 IP in 2022. )1.2 BB/9 led the league)

4.17 ERA/3.66 FIP last 244 IP ('12-'22)

Gotta like the FIP. Need the IP.

 

Bello

7.27 ERA/3.23 FIP first 7 games in '22 (5 GS)

2.59/2.70 last 6 starts in September 2022.

He finished strongly, and 3 of those 6 starts were vs NYY and TOR.

 

Sale & Paxton

I could post numbers from their glory days, but for what purpose? They both are huge question marks, and my hope is that the two can combine for 33-34 starts and be effective.

3.17 ERA/3.54 FIP Sale from 2021-2022 in 48 IP. (Not far from 3.03/2.92 career)

Paxton has 22 IP in the last 2 seasons combined )6.65/4.25)

 

 

[mvp 78]

Whitlock 22

Starter:

FIP 3.60

WHIP 1.26

BABIP 315

 

Reliever

FIP 2.99

WHIP 0.79

BABIP 217

 

He should be given a chance to start.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock 22

Starter:

FIP 3.60

WHIP 1.26

BABIP 315

 

Reliever

FIP 2.99

WHIP 0.79

BABIP 217

 

He should be given a chance to start.

 

I'm all for the idea, now that we only added Kluber.

 

I also like him as a SP'er more than Houck.

 

I think he'll be fine. Just don't jerk him around, unless he needs his inning managed, at some point.

[notin]

Whitlock 22

Starter:

FIP 3.60

WHIP 1.26

BABIP 315

 

Reliever

FIP 2.99

WHIP 0.79

BABIP 217

 

He should be given a chance to start.

 

Pretty sure he’s been Sharpied into the rotation…

[mvp 78]

Pretty sure he’s been Sharpied into the rotation…

 

If they add a Marlins pitcher, who gets bumped to the pen? Paxton? Pivetta?

[moonslav59]

If they add a Marlins pitcher, who gets bumped to the pen? Paxton? Pivetta?

 

They need to wait to opening day to put Paxton on the 60-day IL (lol), but I'd go with Paxton.

 

Technically, we have 6 starters, now:

 

Sale

Paxton

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Until they start throwing and landing on ILs, the starting rotation has depth in bodies -- if not innings. There is no doubt there will be limitations of most, except for maybe Pivetta.

 

Perhaps that is why the Sox are continually adding to the bullpen, preparing for match-ups for four or five innings every night. In the eyes of the front office, an investment in quantity may supersede the cost of market quality...

[moonslav59]

Until they start throwing and landing on ILs, the starting rotation has depth in bodies -- if not innings. There is no doubt there will be limitations of most, except for maybe Pivetta.

 

Perhaps that is why the Sox are continually adding to the bullpen, preparing for match-ups for four or five innings every night. In the eyes of the front office, an investment in quantity may supersede the cost of market quality...

 

I've questioned their positional priorities, this winter. Going into this winter, I felt our urgent needs were:

 

SP1/2 type

SS

RF

Closer

 

Somewhat urgent:

RP (solid set up)

DH

SP 3/4 type

 

Lower priorities:

OF & middle IF depth

RP 4/5 type

 

Our highest contracts went to:

LF $90M/5 + posting Fee for Yoshida

Closer $32M/2 Jansen

DH/1B/3B $21.7M/2 Turner (option included) will play mostly DH

SP 3/4 type Kluber (option included)

RP 2/3 $17.5M/2 Martin

LF/1B $7M/1 Duvall (will play CF)

RP6/7 $5.75M/2 J Rodriguez (option included)

 

Almost $120M went to players that are primarily DHs who can play LF (Yoshida/Duvall), 1B (Turner/Duval) and maybe 3B (Turner).

 

So little on SP and not on a 1/2 type

Just about nothing on SS or middle IF, except the Mondesi trade.

Nothing on RF

Basically, they filled 1 of my top 4 suggested priority additions- maybe **** Kluber as .5 of a 1/2 type SP'er.

 

If you count my next category, making it my top 7 high need areas, we filled 4 out of 7 (No SP1/2, SS or RF)

[Bellhorn04]

Early in the offseason Bloom was asked if he planned to acquire a starting pitcher. Bloom not only answered in the affirmative, but he was very specific about what he was looking for: "leadership, innings and upside". That sounded exciting.

 

The pitcher he eventually signed was Kluber. I will accept "leadership" and "innings" (by today's standards). But there's no way in hell Kluber offers "upside".

 

Was Kluber really the guy Bloom had in mind when he said that? Or did he get outbid on the guy he really wanted, or did a trade fall through?

 

Whatever the explanation, Bloom did not deliver on his promise. And it's one of the things that makes me nervous about the guy.

[Old Red]

Early in the offseason Bloom was asked if he planned to acquire a starting pitcher. Bloom not only answered in the affirmative, but he was very specific about what he was looking for: "leadership, innings and upside". That sounded exciting.

 

The pitcher he eventually signed was Kluber. I will accept "leadership" and "innings" (by today's standards). But there's no way in hell Kluber offers "upside".

 

Was Kluber really the guy Bloom had in mind when he said that? Or did he get outbid on the guy he really wanted, or did a trade fall through?

 

Whatever the explanation, Bloom did not deliver on his promise. And it's one of the things that makes me nervous about the guy.

I agree just like Abreu was the first player he wanted, and got outbid by Houston.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Early in the offseason Bloom was asked if he planned to acquire a starting pitcher. Bloom not only answered in the affirmative, but he was very specific about what he was looking for: "leadership, innings and upside". That sounded exciting.

 

The pitcher he eventually signed was Kluber. I will accept "leadership" and "innings" (by today's standards). But there's no way in hell Kluber offers "upside".

 

/QUOTE]

 

Yes, way: Baltimore smashed Klube's high-80s meatballs upside the head.

 

We know Eflin was Bloom's first target, a pitcher he offered the highest publicized contract of his regime -- $40 million dollars.

 

At 28, Eflin is just hitting his prime, looked pretty good in the postseason, and you know he has upside, since Boston South and Warmer immediately matched the offer and signed him to a contender.

[Bellhorn04]

Am I correct that since Bloom took over the Red Sox, the biggest contract they've handed out to a starting pitcher is the one to Kluber?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Am I correct that since Bloom took over the Red Sox, the biggest contract they've handed out to a starting pitcher is the one to Kluber?

 

What about "If we didn't trade Mookie, we couldn't have signed Garrett Richards!"

[Bellhorn04]

It's true, the Kluber contract is the biggest for a free agent starting pitcher since Bloom took over. Amazing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's true, the Kluber contract is the biggest for a free agent starting pitcher since Bloom took over. Amazing.

 

But... Bloom's Red Sox have been interested in a lot of free agents.

[notin]

It's true, the Kluber contract is the biggest for a free agent starting pitcher since Bloom took over. Amazing.

 

Why?

 

If you discount the deals from Dombrowski, the Sox don’t have a lot of big deals for pitchers. The largest one Epstein gave out was for Lackey, and it wasn’t really Earth-shattering at the time…

[Bellhorn04]

Why?

 

If you discount the deals from Dombrowski, the Sox don’t have a lot of big deals for pitchers. The largest one Epstein gave out was for Lackey, and it wasn’t really Earth-shattering at the time…

 

Dice-K's deal was a larger layout of cash. There was also the extension for Beckett.

 

Those are not massive deals by today's standards, but they do kind of dwarf Kluber's deal...

[notin]

It's true, the Kluber contract is the biggest for a free agent starting pitcher since Bloom took over. Amazing.

 

And also untrue.

 

 

Kenley Jansen’s contract is larger. In terms of guaranteed money, Chris Martin’s is, too…

[Bellhorn04]

And also untrue.

 

 

Kenley Jansen’s contract is larger. In terms of guaranteed money, Chris Martin’s is, too…

 

You missed the word "starting".

[notin]

You missed the word "starting".

 

I did.

 

This is also part of my issue with Bloom is how he seemingly ignores starting pitchers.

 

I certainly don’t want anything stupid like another Price contract. And I get that he’s going to see something in the Martin Perez’ and Garrett Richards of the world that I don’t.

 

But there has to be some middle ground in between not signing long term starting pitcher contracts and just signing one year deals. Especially if you don’t draft pitchers or trade for pitching prospects…

Edited April 1, 2023 by notin