Your 2023 Red Sox starting rotation/depth - as it stands

[Old Red]

I suppose this means you’ll also be rooting against them…

 

I don’t root against anybody. That includes Bloom. If Bloom fails the Red Sox fail.

[notin]

Not sure I follow -- what way of a rebuild is most expensive? Signing the best free agents?

 

Or is that approach only good to put contenders over the top? For example, the 2009 Yankees -- the last Bronx tails to win a banner -- when they bought CC, AJ and Tex...

 

My point is that I don't care how they do it, the Red Sox better spend some resources on quality starting pitchers soon or they'll never get out of the cellar. Remember, the '04 Cursebreakers didn't give up much in past trades for Lowe, Martinez and Schilling -- though the latter two were certainly salary "dumps" of impending free agents that their clubs were ok taking 50 cents on the dollar (returns which in reality were more like 20 cents).

 

Signing the best free agent pitchers is the most expensive. And in the end, usually the worst way to rebuild a staff. And as you pointed out, none of Pedro, Lowe or Schilling were free agents.

 

Yes the 2009 Yankees spent heavily and it paid off with a title. But is that really the most common result when the Yankees pay heavily? Like they did in 2001 for Mussina or 2002 for Giambi or 2004 for ARod? And how did Price work out for Boston?

 

Really look at the biggest deals in Sox history - Price, Manny, AGon, Crawford, and Sale, Manny’s deal (which Epstein appeared to have a prime directive to unload) was the only one that was actually any good. Why do people want to continue pursuing this? If you have a HOF caliber player like Manny, it makes sense. Betts would have made sense. But for anything else, the results aren’t even mixed for this team…

[Old Red]

I don't have much faith in either one, either. I like Crawford's chances better, but many good players start out, slowly.

 

I'm sure glad the Sox never gave up on Pedroia after his slow start that extended much longer than Wink & Seabolds.

 

.561 in 98 PAs in 2006 (31 games)

.603 in first 75 PAs of 2007 (23 games)

 

Your not really comparing these ham, and eggers to Petey are you? I gave up on Duran, Downs, and Franchy too. Petey was a special case which is more the exception, and not the rule.

[notin]

Starter depth may be good, but quantity doesn’t always equate to quality, which I believe this is the case here. Stinkin Winkin, and Seabold are only #10, or #11 starters, and are only useable in situations like last year when starters are depleted, and only as a last option.

 

 

But one thing history has shown us is that the one thing that can substitute for quality is health. Turns out - surprise, surprise- heathy second tier starters are often better than the injured first tier starters. Of course, they’re also often better than the replacements for injured first tier starters, too…

[notin]

Your not really comparing these ham, and eggers to Petey are you? I gave up on Duran, Downs, and Franchy too. Petey was a special case which is more the exception, and not the rule.

 

There is no rule for how long it takes. Jon Lester had an ERA of 4.68 after two years and 148 IP.

 

Maybe that’s why they lowballed him. (This is sarcasm. I’ve learned some people need that pointed out. Not naming any names.)

[Old Red]

There is no rule for how long it takes. Jon Lester had an ERA of 4.68 after two years and 148 IP.

 

Maybe that’s why they lowballed him. (This is sarcasm. I’ve learned some people need that pointed out. Not naming any names.)

Once again Seabold, or Stinkin Winkin are not John Lester.

[notin]

Once again Seabold, or Stinkin Winkin are not John Lester.

 

And at the time a lot of people thought Jon Lester was no Kason Gabbard. Since even said we sent the wrong Lefty to Texas.

 

Point being small sample sizes - especially at the start of a career - are not always representative…

[moonslav59]

Your not really comparing these ham, and eggers to Petey are you? I gave up on Duran, Downs, and Franchy too. Petey was a special case which is more the exception, and not the rule.

 

No, I think most of the best players struggled early in their ML careers, at some point. Maybe year 2 for some, but most struggle, and my point made was not that Wink and Seabold are comparable to Pedey, but that deciding so early is often a mistake.

 

BTW, Bogey had an even longer waiting period than Pedey.

 

.241 with a .662 OPS after his first 644 PAs. He then went .651 in his first 125 PAs of 2015.

 

That's about .660 after780 PAs.

 

.754 Dalbec in his 898 career PAs.

.676 Cordero in his 726 career PAs.

.622 Duran in his career 335 PAs.

 

Again, I'm not projecting greatness, especially on the level of Pedey or Bogey, but totally giving up on anyone can end up being a mistake.

 

Take Dalbec, it would have been a mistake to give up on him in 2021, but then it looked like we gave him too long of a chance in '22.

 

It's not an easy call.

 

I think Wink, Crawford and Seabold all deserve another significant chance before we cut ties with them, but probably not on the opening day roster, unless they look sharp in ST'ing.

 

I don't doubt the odds are against Wink and Seabold becoming even decent role players, but giving up so early, after tiny sample sizes is not winning strategy, either.

[moonslav59]

And at the time a lot of people thought Jon Lester was no Kason Gabbard. Since even said we sent the wrong Lefty to Texas.

 

Point being small sample sizes - especially at the start of a career - are not always representative…

 

There were also serious doubts about Lester's ability to comeback from cancer.

 

I'm glad we stuck with him, and he thanked Boston for sticking with him as he battled cancer. Maybe sticking with some of our yong pitchers now, will lead to some good stories, even if not on the level Lester reached with us.

 

I don't get the need to bash our own players before they get a real chance to show their skillset. It reminds me of Swihart saying he loves the Sox but hated on 37 out of the 40 guys on the roster, plus the manager, coaches, GM and owner.

 

Brasier is another story. Have at him!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Signing the best free agent pitchers is the most expensive. And in the end, usually the worst way to rebuild a staff. And as you pointed out, none of Pedro, Lowe or Schilling were free agents.

 

Yes the 2009 Yankees spent heavily and it paid off with a title. But is that really the most common result when the Yankees pay heavily? Like they did in 2001 for Mussina or 2002 for Giambi or 2004 for ARod? And how did Price work out for Boston?

 

Really look at the biggest deals in Sox history - Price, Manny, AGon, Crawford, and Sale, Manny’s deal (which Epstein appeared to have a prime directive to unload) was the only one that was actually any good. Why do people want to continue pursuing this? If you have a HOF caliber player like Manny, it makes sense. Betts would have made sense. But for anything else, the results aren’t even mixed for this team…

 

I'm just focused on starting pitching right now. Signing big expensive arms for contenders can pay off, though... at least recently -- Wheeler, Verlander, Gausman, Scherzer wherever he goes... GMs just have to either be smarter or more lucky in picking the right ones.

 

But you're right, the Sox always have a better history in trading for #1s or #2s. I loved the Boddicker trade in '88, which helped Boston win two divisions... in 2 1/2 years, he earned 11.4 WAR -- and all for rookie outfielder Brady Anderson (who I liked better than Ellis Burks at the time) and a prospect named Schilling. Moon would say this is the main reason you need a deep farm in the first place.

 

BTW, I love Castillo, but Seattle traded its #1, 3 and 5 prospects (and another arm) for him... that's the equivalent of Bloom swapping Mayer, Rafaela and Bleis -- for one guy. Unfathomable.

 

As for developing a staff of homegrowns, this is where patience with call-ups is most important. Pitchers are always working on learning new pitches, and coaches and/or legends like Pedro need time to teach them. It's much more common for a pitcher to change than for a guy like JD Martinez or Justin Turner to totally overhaul their swing, and strike gold.

[moonslav59]

I'm just focused on starting pitching right now. Signing big expensive arms for contenders can pay off, though... at least recently -- Wheeler, Verlander, Gausman, Scherzer wherever he goes... GMs just have to either be smarter or more lucky in picking the right ones.

 

But you're right, the Sox always have a better history in trading for #1s or #2s. I loved the Boddicker trade in '88, which helped Boston win two divisions... in 2 1/2 years, he earned 11.4 WAR -- and all for rookie outfielder Brady Anderson (who I liked better than Ellis Burks at the time) and a prospect named Schilling. Moon would say this is the main reason you need a deep farm in the first place.

 

BTW, I love Castillo, but Seattle traded its #1, 3 and 5 prospects (and another arm) for him... that's the equivalent of Bloom swapping Mayer, Rafaela and Bleis -- for one guy. Unfathomable.

 

As for developing a staff of homegrowns, this is where patience with call-ups is most important. Pitchers are always working on learning new pitches, and coaches and/or legends like Pedro need time to teach them. It's much more common for a pitcher to change than for a guy like JD Martinez or Justin Turner to totally overhaul their swing, and strike gold.

 

I think the days of acquiring a Pedro or Schilling for a couple decent prospects are over. The Sale trade ended up not being so much of a return as thought at the time, due to Moncada and Kopech not doing as well as many expected. The HRam for Beckett plus salary dump Lowell worked for us.

 

Our big FA signings have been a mixed bag with Price and Lackey as the 2 biggest ones.

 

I know signing deGrom or Rodon might have worked like some of the recent ones you just listed, but there are quite a few failures we could lits, too.

 

I didn't see this FA class of SP'ers as being "the one" to splurge on. I thought trading for one made more sense.

 

I'm not happy with Kluber being the only SP'er added, but I like him more than Heaney, Lugo and a few others near the same price.

 

It's going to come down to Whit & Bello with maybe Mata or Sale stepping up. The rest just need to stay healthy and not suck.

[mvp 78]

And at the time a lot of people thought Jon Lester was no Kason Gabbard. Since even said we sent the wrong Lefty to Texas.

 

Point being small sample sizes - especially at the start of a career - are not always representative…

 

Who said that? Talent evaluators or posters?

[notin]

Who said that? Talent evaluators or posters?

 

Posters of course. The same people who are giving up on Winckowski after 70 IP…

[Old Red]

Posters of course. The same people who are giving up on Winckowski after 70 IP…

 

Stinkin Winkin you bet!

[Bellhorn04]

Stinkin Winkin you bet!

 

Michael Whacka says hello.

[Old Red]

Michael Whacka says hello.

 

I admitted I was wrong about that last year, but Stinkin Winkin, and Franchy was a gem of a Bloom trade.

[Bellhorn04]

I admitted I was wrong about that last year, but Stinkin Winkin, and Franchy was a gem of a Bloom trade.

 

Maybe you'll be wrong about Stinkin too.

[Old Red]

Maybe you'll be wrong about Stinkin too.

 

Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it, and the same with Seabold, who I believe is another stinker.

[mvp 78]

Posters of course. The same people who are giving up on Winckowski after 70 IP…

 

I don't think Winckowski is more than a 5th starter or reliever. I believe that I've heard his "stuff plays up" in a relief role. I think he's fine for what he is. I'd rather him on the roster than BRASIER.

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it, and the same with Seabold, who I believe is another stinker.

 

Who will be better this year: Seabold, Workman or Hembree?

 

Since 2020:

Seabold -0.3 fWAR

Workman -0.7 fWAR

Hembree -1.2 fWAR

[moonslav59]

I have Crawford slightly ahead or Wink, who is ahead of Seabold.

 

Where Mata and Walter fit in may depend on how well they do in ST'ing and AAA to start the season.

[Old Red]

Who will be better this year: Seabold, Workman or Hembree?

 

Since 2020:

Seabold -0.3 fWAR

Workman -0.7 fWAR

Hembree -1.2 fWAR

 

Pivetta. I get what you are getting at, but Bloom didn’t give up anything in the trade. It’s the trades that he does give up something that doesn’t work out so well.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta. I get what you are getting at, but Bloom didn’t give up anything in the trade. It’s the trades that he does give up something that doesn’t work out so well.

 

Ok, well YOU brought up Seabold.

 

I agree that the Betts trade stunk. I agree that Beni trade hasn't worked out (and they traded him at his lowest value). Bloom's dumbest trade was the Renfroe trade though. I can't say that I trust him to do a Devers trade.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta. I get what you are getting at, but Bloom didn’t give up anything in the trade. It’s the trades that he does give up something that doesn’t work out so well.

 

Workman was pretty good before he was traded,

[notin]

I don't think Winckowski is more than a 5th starter or reliever. I believe that I've heard his "stuff plays up" in a relief role. I think he's fine for what he is. I'd rather him on the roster than BRASIER.

 

Absolutely I’d say he can be a good RP. I’d prefer they try him in that role this year.

 

I’ll say it - I think he could outperform Barnes…

[Old Red]

Ok, well YOU brought up Seabold.

 

I agree that the Betts trade stunk. I agree that Beni trade hasn't worked out (and they traded him at his lowest value). Bloom's dumbest trade was the Renfroe trade though. I can't say that I trust him to do a Devers trade.

 

I agree with all, and especially I don’t trust Bloom to do a Raffy trade.

[mvp 78]

I have Crawford slightly ahead or Wink, who is ahead of Seabold.

 

Where Mata and Walter fit in may depend on how well they do in ST'ing and AAA to start the season.

 

Winckowski just stopped being able to strike anyone out the second he got to MLB. He also massively struggled the second time through the order, whereas Crawford only kind of struggled. I'm not sure Winckowski gets many more chances to start.

 

Seabold will be 27 this month. I don't know what is even left there.

[notin]

Pivetta. I get what you are getting at, but Bloom didn’t give up anything in the trade. It’s the trades that he does give up something that doesn’t work out so well.

 

Those are the trades every GM struggles with…

[notin]

Winckowski just stopped being able to strike anyone out the second he got to MLB. He also massively struggled the second time through the order, whereas Crawford only kind of struggled. I'm not sure Winckowski gets many more chances to start.

 

Seabold will be 27 this month. I don't know what is even left there.

 

Seabold has yet to impress. But hey, what do you expect for two months of aging mediocre journeyman relievers?

[mvp 78]

Absolutely I’d say he can be a good RP. I’d prefer they try him in that role this year.

 

I’ll say it - I think he could outperform Barnes…

 

No. Barnes is going to have a redemption year in 2023. He's going to be good. He won't be pitching the 8th/9th, but he'll be reliable.