Devers next deal

[a700hitter]

Empty mouthpiece.

 

I think I'm starting to miss Lucchino, at least he was sort of a real person...

Kennedy is a useless suit.

[Old Red]

Kennedy is a useless suit.

 

The one homegrown they decided to keep.

[moonslav59]

Watching those competitive teams during the 70's and 80's gave me a lot of joy. They competed. Personally it isn't all about winning the title.

 

Yes, that was a lot of fun, and it's not a b ad thing to make the playoffs way more often without any rings, but I can take some down times, as long as the rings keep coming every 3-6 years. (We're coming on 6, pretty soon.)

[mvp 78]

@JonHeyman

Red Sox working hard to try to lock up superstar Rafael Devers

[moonslav59]

@JonHeyman

Red Sox working hard to try to lock up superstar Rafael Devers

 

If they start the extension clock in 2023, maybe it lessens the AAV for future years by a little bit, and helps explain why $40M is still on the table.

 

Now, a Devers extension will not eat $40M up, since the differential between his expected arb cost and his new AAV is all that counts, but it would take up some.

 

The rest could still be spent on a combo of Kluber, Conforto/Gallo and or Andrus/Segura/Drury.

[mvp 78]

If they start the extension clock in 2023, maybe it lessens the AAV for future years by a little bit, and helps explain why $40M is still on the table.

 

Now, a Devers extension will not eat $40M up, since the differential between his expected arb cost and his new AAV is all that counts, but it would take up some.

 

The rest could still be spent on a combo of Kluber, Conforto/Gallo and or Andrus/Segura/Drury.

 

Just go over this year. There will be cost savings in the near future when other guys fall off the books.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@JonHeyman

Red Sox working hard to try to lock up superstar Rafael Devers

 

Caution: he said Raffy is now their #1 Priority.

 

What if Devers is their priority, but the Sox just aren't that motivated. Like, they're hungry, but not for a sit-down meal. If it's just a quick snack -- do they want to pay for red grapes or a bag of chips?

[Old Red]

Caution: he said Raffy is now their #1 Priority.

 

What if Devers is their priority, but the Sox just aren't that motivated. Like, they're hungry, but not for a sit-down meal. If it's just a quick snack -- do they want to pay for red grapes or a bag of chips?

My big question is why should Raffy want to resign with the Red Sox at all if they are going through a 5 yr rebuild, reset, cliff not going all in, or whatever else you want to call it?

[moonslav59]

Just go over this year. There will be cost savings in the near future when other guys fall off the books.

 

Going over means a reset in 2024 and pushes any hopes of being a top contender to 2025. I guess that is just after 5 years from 2020 to 2024.

 

We don't lose much, next year: Kike $10M, Barnes $9M and Paxton $4M.

 

I not only think we will reset, I think we should reset in 2023.

[moonslav59]

My big question is why should Raffy want to resign with the Red Sox at all if they are going through a 5 yr rebuild, reset, cliff not going all in, or whatever else you want to call it?

 

I hope they don't think any truth to this being a 5 year rebuild starts the clock in 2023.

[Old Red]

I hope they don't think any truth to this being a 5 year rebuild starts the clock in 2023.

 

That would be a waste to some of Raffy’s prime years.

[mvp 78]

Going over means a reset in 2024 and pushes any hopes of being a top contender to 2025. I guess that is just after 5 years from 2020 to 2024.

 

We don't lose much, next year: Kike $10M, Barnes $9M and Paxton $4M.

 

I not only think we will reset, I think we should reset in 2023.

 

You can only be a contender if you go over the luxury tax? With the infusion of young talent, shouldn't the Sox be able to get under the tax and be good?

[moonslav59]

That would be a waste to some of Raffy’s prime years.

 

Agreed.

 

If the clock is starting now on a 5 year plan, which I don't think it is or is viewed like that by JH & Co, then even the Yoshida signing was wasteful.

 

I think they view us as starting year 4 of a 4 or 5 year rebuild plan. It's just my opinion. That may be why we didn't go large and long on anyone, because the eye has always been on 2024 or 2025.

[moonslav59]

You can only be a contender if you go over the luxury tax? With the infusion of young talent, shouldn't the Sox be able to get under the tax and be good?

 

No, of course you can contend when under, but I am pretty certain we will continue the practice of never going over for 3 years in a row. I'll believe otherwise, when I see it.

 

In that light, when does it make more sense to splurge on key need areas? For 2023 or 2024, because it won't be both. Splurging increases the odds on the chosen year, right?

[mvp 78]

No, of course you can contend when under, but I am pretty certain we will continue the practice of never going over for 3 years in a row. I'll believe otherwise, when I see it.

 

In that light, when does it make more sense to splurge on key need areas? For 2023 or 2024, because it won't be both. Splurging increases the odds on the chosen year, right?

 

How do you "choose" the year if you expect to be consistently good year in and year out. This doesn't make sense.

[Bellhorn04]

The "chosen year" is a terrible concept. The Dodgers just had an incredible season only to see an 87 win team win the pennant.

[moonslav59]

How do you "choose" the year if you expect to be consistently good year in and year out. This doesn't make sense.

 

I don't and never have believed they honestly felt they'd be highly or even semi-highly competitive every year, even if you throw 2020 out of this discussion.

 

What make sense is to choose what years you reset based on which years you think the best chance of winning are. 2013 threw a wrench into that the cycling theory, and maybe 2021 did, too, but honestly, which season as of right now looks like we have a better chance? 2023 or 2024?

 

To me, it comes down to whether Devers will be here in 2024, or not. If we plan on letting him walk after 2023, then I guess going over in 2023 for some sort of late charge at glory as the devers window closes might make more sense, but if the plan is to keep devers beyond 2023, I'm thinking 2024 offers a better chance to splurge on.

 

Another big reason why splurging on 2024 is better than 2023, is there is nothing left to splurge on, this winter, while 2024 has way more options.

Edited December 16, 2022 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

How do you "choose" the year if you expect to be consistently good year in and year out. This doesn't make sense.

 

I think you kind of have to evaluate every year, but it seems the new trend will be to reset every few years, Except for the Mets. unless they sell off contracts next year. But even LAD, so 29 teams to some degree will follow this format (minus the teams who have no chance of going over).

 

At this point, it seems to make sense to reset the cap this year by Boston. Seems like a great year to do it given the cost of FA out there, only problem is it looks like we have a head to head match up with LAD for any premium FA.....so....we probably don't win any of those.

[moonslav59]

The "chosen year" is a terrible concept. The Dodgers just had an incredible season only to see an 87 win team win the pennant.

 

When you know you are not going to go over for 3 years straight, it makes more sense.

 

I guess you could just plan on every 3rd year and try to match up your signings accordingly, so you have 2 year windows and if you do it right, maybe pull a 2013 surprise every now and again.

 

I think the plan is to build up the farm enough, so resetting is not such a major deal. It can be "handled" by incoming, low-cost producers at a steady pace.

 

Until we get there, I think we need to decide 2023 or 2024.

[Hugh2]

The trick is you want to be spending big in FA the year you DID NOT exceed the luxury tax line. This way you don't lose as many picks when you sign a QO guy, AND you don't lose IFA money. Also, if you net picks from losing QO guys the draft pick you receive will be higher.

 

The Sox messed up big time here.

 

Because the exceeded the cap, they will receive what is approximately to a late round 4th round pick for losing out on Bogey, instead of a 2nd. Or equivalent to late 2nd.

 

If they were to sign Swanson its' going to cost them their 2nd and 5th highest pick. As opposed to just their 2nd and 500K.

 

Nothing to sneeze at but, it makes sense to go big a year right after you reset.

[moonslav59]

 

Because the exceeded the cap, they will receive what is approximately to a late round 4th round pick for losing out on Bogey, instead of a 2nd. Or equivalent to late 2nd.

 

.

Times two!

 

The same with Nate!

[mvp 78]

The trick is you want to be spending big in FA the year you DID NOT exceed the luxury tax line. This way you don't lose as many picks when you sign a QO guy, AND you don't lose IFA money. Also, if you net picks from losing QO guys the draft pick you receive will be higher.

 

The Sox messed up big time here.

 

Because the exceeded the cap, they will receive what is approximately to a late round 4th round pick for losing out on Bogey, instead of a 2nd. Or equivalent to late 2nd.

 

If they were to sign Swanson its' going to cost them their 2nd and 5th highest pick. As opposed to just their 2nd and 500K.

 

Nothing to sneeze at but, it makes sense to go big a year right after you reset.

 

And for Swanson? Pass.

[Hugh2]

And for Swanson? Pass.

 

This is why it was Bogaerts or Correa for me.

[jacksonianmarch]

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST.

 

Bloom notes keeping Devers is the organizations "FIRST PRIORITY".

 

This is code for we are trading you. When will it go down, any predictions?

[notin]

The trick is you want to be spending big in FA the year you DID NOT exceed the luxury tax line. This way you don't lose as many picks when you sign a QO guy, AND you don't lose IFA money. Also, if you net picks from losing QO guys the draft pick you receive will be higher.

 

The Sox messed up big time here.

 

Because the exceeded the cap, they will receive what is approximately to a late round 4th round pick for losing out on Bogey, instead of a 2nd. Or equivalent to late 2nd.

 

If they were to sign Swanson its' going to cost them their 2nd and 5th highest pick. As opposed to just their 2nd and 500K.

 

Nothing to sneeze at but, it makes sense to go big a year right after you reset.

 

This wasn’t really the year to go big in FA. The best SPs were either older or injured all the time or both. And the drop off in position players after Judge and the shortstops was astronomical. In no other year does Brandon Nimmo land a 9 figure deal spanning 8 years.

 

But the Sox still need to add more than a handful of relievers and an imported outfielder…

[mvp 78]

This wasn’t really the year to go big in FA. The best SPs were either older or injured all the time or both. And the drop off in position players after Judge and the shortstops was astronomical. In no other year does Brandon Nimmo land a 9 figure deal spanning 8 years.

 

But the Sox still need to add more than a handful of relievers and an imported outfielder…

 

"In no previous year..."

[Bellhorn04]

This wasn’t really the year to go big in FA. The best SPs were either older or injured all the time or both.

 

Seriously, when has there been a year that there were a lot of FA SP's who weren't older or injury-prone?

 

Are you thinking of Gerrit Cole the $324 million man?

 

FA SP who have youth, effectiveness and durability cost a mint.

 

So we're out on them too...

Edited December 16, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

When was this mythical YEAR TO GO BIG?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

(loathing the idea that a team isn't yet to good enough to try to be good enough)

 

Kids at the beach trying to body-surf, bouncing up and down in the water, looking over their shoulders as the waves build up, waiting... waiting...

 

"Not this one, the next one -- no, the one after -- no, the next one --- nooooooooo...."

 

Waves crash, bodies topple, mouths fill with salt water, sand in the swimsuits...

[dgalehouse]

It shouldn't be a choice between winning the World Series or finishing dead last. For a team like the Red Sox , the aim should be to field a competitive playoff team every year . Then you take your chances in the post season , crapshoot or no crapshoot.