Devers next deal

[Bellhorn04]

I get the frustration and even the anger, but I waited over 30 years for a ring. One ring gives JH a lifetime pass, IMO. Four has to be at least 4 get of jail free cards.

 

Maybe some feel he's used them up: departments of Theo, Tito, Lester, Betts, and Bogey is five, but I don't count Betts.

 

IMO, there is a long way to go for me to be on the "Go Away Henry Bandwagon."

 

Henry and Werner are kind of like Tom Brady right now.

 

Just because you give them immense credit for what they've done doesn't mean it isn't time for them to hang it up.

[moonslav59]

Henry and Werner are kind of like Tom Brady right now.

 

Just because you give them immense credit for what they've done doesn't mean it isn't time for them to hang it up.

 

They are still spending- just not on glitzy names.

 

Glitzy name signings do not have a great track record.

 

Bell, don't fall for this.

[notin]

They are still spending- just not on glitzy names.

 

Glitzy name signings do not have a great track record.

 

Bell, don't fall for this.

 

Even the younger guys signing $300mill deals have had issues. Trout isn’t the same. Tatis started his deal off on a nightmare trajectory of injuries and steroid scandals. Stanton has had too many years as a part timer.

 

Is Betts the King of $300 mill players by a lot?

[Bellhorn04]

They are still spending- just not on glitzy names.

 

Glitzy name signings do not have a great track record.

 

Bell, don't fall for this.

 

So no Devers Forevers, then.

[Bellhorn04]

Even the younger guys signing $300mill deals have had issues. Trout isn’t the same. Tatis started his deal off on a nightmare trajectory of injuries and steroid scandals. Stanton has had too many years as a part timer.

 

Is Betts the King of $300 mill players by a lot?

 

Harper and Machado have been earning their stipends.

[Old Red]

4 WS rings in 20 years.

 

I think a lot has changed even since 2018. The signings the Red Sox did in the past like Sale, Price, CC, Agon, and even Manny would not be done today, and maybe that’s a good thing, because the money part has gone up so far out of whack.

[Old Red]

So no Devers Forevers, then.

 

When you get as far as a last arb year then it’s to late to do anything good, or sensible.

[notin]

Harper and Machado have been earning their stipends.

 

Good call.

 

Overall it is an iffy proposition, however…

[Bellhorn04]

Good call.

 

Overall it is an iffy proposition, however…

 

Not retaining any of them is an iffy proposition, too.

[notin]

Not retaining any of them is an iffy proposition, too.

 

Has it hurt Houston?

[mvp 78]

I get the frustration and even the anger, but I waited over 30 years for a ring. One ring gives JH a lifetime pass, IMO. Four has to be at least 4 get of jail free cards.

 

Maybe some feel he's used them up: departments of Theo, Tito, Lester, Betts, and Bogey is five, but I don't count Betts.

 

IMO, there is a long way to go for me to be on the "Go Away Henry Bandwagon."

 

There is no lifetime pass. You can still piss away goodwill.

[moonslav59]

So no Devers Forevers, then.

 

I'll be pissed, but if this strategy brings us wins and more sustained winning, season-by-season, I'll be fine.

 

I still want Devers Forevers, and I've said I think JH will spend large and long when the timing is right. I'm not sure he views this current roster as being 1-2 big players away from the top, so maybe it's not Devers Forevers time on JH's ROLEX watch.

[moonslav59]

There is no lifetime pass. You can still piss away goodwill.

 

Yup, but I could care less if people hate JH: just win rings, baby! (as in more to come)

[mvp 78]

They are still spending- just not on glitzy names.

 

Glitzy name signings do not have a great track record.

 

Bell, don't fall for this.

 

Ok, take a random FA class like 2018-19. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-aav__sort_direction-0

 

Would a team be better off signing guys from the top of the class like Harper, Machado, Corbin, Donaldson, Grandal, or with going through the grab bag further down? With the top guys, it always seems like there's a 50/50 risk of it not paying off. However, the FA options that come at the cheaper end of things are cheap for a reason.

[mvp 78]

Yup, but I could care less if people hate JH: just win rings, baby! (as in more to come)

 

But if no more ever come, are you still happy with him and his checkbook?

[mvp 78]

I'll be pissed, but if this strategy brings us wins and more sustained winning, season-by-season, I'll be fine.

 

I still want Devers Forevers, and I've said I think JH will spend large and long when the timing is right. I'm not sure he views this current roster as being 1-2 big players away from the top, so maybe it's not Devers Forevers time on JH's ROLEX watch.

 

We haven't had any SUSTAINED winning though. The only time that happened was when they went whole hog under DD.

[moonslav59]

Has it hurt Houston?

 

I really think we are striving to get our organization to be like theirs. They tanked to give themselves a boost, but it takes time to set it all up.

 

I thought out farm was getting close to "that point," and maybe it still is.

 

Without serious and positive infusion of youth coming in, yearly, it's hard to win with that model.

 

Think of all the players who have left the Astros in the last 4-5 years. Some were clearly past prime, and some were not "homegrown," but had the not had anyone coming up through the system or some freed up budget space to fill other needs, they'd be crying like Sox fans are, now.

 

Verlander- this year's Cy Young winner and not a tear shed

Springer

Correa

Cole

Keuchel

Morton

Greinke

 

(Lessers: Odorizzi, Giles, McHugh, Musgrove, Beltran, MCCann, Brantley, Osuna...)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Has it hurt Houston?

 

They've retained Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez?

[S5Dewey]

4 WS rings in 20 years.

 

That's a very nice history lesson. Now can we talk about the more recent past?

 

Has watched two franchise players walk in the past 3+ years.

Finished last in their division two of the last four years.

Haven't won their division in five years.

 

All of this in spite of having one of the largest fan bases in baseball and charging some of the highest ticket prices.

 

I don't expect a WSC every year. I don't even expect them to win their division every year. What I DO expect is that they're going to be competitive every year, and getting beaten out by the Baltimore Orioles is NOT being competitive.

[Old Red]

They've retained Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez?

 

They also had Peña ready to step in for Correa.

[notin]

We haven't had any SUSTAINED winning though. The only time that happened was when they went whole hog under DD.

 

2003 through 2009.

 

They made the postseason 6 times, reached the ALCS 4 times, won 2 World Series titles and the one “bad” year they finished 3rd at 86-76…

[notin]

They've retained Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez?

 

Only Altuve has been there long enough to be a free agent.

 

They let Correa, Springer, Cole, Keuchel, and many others just walk away via free agency…

[moonslav59]

We haven't had any SUSTAINED winning though. The only time that happened was when they went whole hog under DD.

 

Cause it takes time to build up the farm, and then more time to see them mature.

 

Again, from the Devers call-up in 2017 to the Bello/Casas call-ups, our farm produced Houck, Duran and Dalbec. You don't get sustained winning until that is fixed.

 

The recent bello/Casas call-ups along with Whitlock's Rule 5 addition and Houck give us a 4 man core. That's not yet on par with what the Astros infusions are doing- both in quality and quantity.

 

This season and next, we have a much longer list of hopefuls and expected good prospects about to get a chance, plus guys like Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold and Wong still holding some faint hopes.

 

SP's rankings

 

ETA

Here, now or recent grads: Whitlock, Bello, Crawford, Wink, Wong, Dalbec, Duran, Downs...)

2. Casas

21. Seabold

26. Kelly

 

2023

4. Rafaela

8. Walter

13. Murphy

24. German

17. E Valdez

28. Abreu

 

2024

1. Mayer

5. Yorke

20. Kavadas

Wallace, Hamilton, Koss, R Fernandez, Binelas, Scott

 

This may be far from what the Astros have done, but it's big step in the right direction. You don't get there overnight.

[Old Red]

There is no lifetime pass. You can still piss away goodwill.

 

No lifetime pass is right, and like I’ve mentioned before Bob Kraft of the Pats is a good example of that, and JH is not in his class. It may be the same JH, but the game, and money being thrown around may have passed Henry bye. Having a $200M+ payroll today is not the same thing as it was in 2018.

[moonslav59]

They've retained Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez?

 

Springer> Tucker

Correa> Pena

Cole>Framber

Morton> Urquidy/MCCullers

Verlander> Javier/Garcia

 

In that time period, we saw:

Houck

Dalbec

Duran

 

It's so obvious where are #1 problem is. Yes, it sucks letting our studs go, but we'd have no hope, anyway without something from the farm, even if just used for trades.

[moonslav59]

No lifetime pass is right, and like I’ve mentioned before Bob Kraft of the Pats is a good example of that, and JH is not in his class. It may be the same JH, but the game, and money being thrown around may have passed Henry bye. Having a $200M+ payroll today is not the same thing as it was in 2018.

 

Are we still top 4-6, every year, except maybe 2020?

[mvp 78]

That's a very nice history lesson. Now can we talk about the more recent past?

 

Has watched two franchise players walk in the past 3+ years.

Finished last in their division two of the last four years.

Haven't won their division in five years.

 

All of this in spite of having one of the largest fan bases in baseball and charging some of the highest ticket prices.

 

I don't expect a WSC every year. I don't even expect them to win their division every year. What I DO expect is that they're going to be competitive every year, and getting beaten out by the Baltimore Orioles is NOT being competitive.

 

Someone asked what the upside was. I provided it. I'm not carrying their water.

[S5Dewey]

I know Henry will continue to spend in the top 6-8.

 

I know when we get close to being highly competitive, JH has taken steps to get us over the top.

 

4 rings in 20 years vs zero in the 30 years I followed the team before JH.

 

We lost Lowe and Damon and won.

 

We lost Pedro and won.

 

We lost AGon & Beckett and won

 

We lost Lester and won.

 

Some of these were not "homegrown," but we have lost what many of us felt were essential and or well liked players and kept winning.

 

I'm not seeing why I should expect that to change. The next owner may not do what it takes. I'm pretty sure JH will, despite his major faults.

 

If your criteria is how much money JH has spent that's fine. He's being "successful". But if your criteria is winning you cannot ignore the fact that he's unwilling to spend big when the time is right, and the Sox record shows it.

 

Yes, we lost those players and won but you can't ignore the trades/FA signings he's made. Prior to the 2004 season the Red Sox picked up the best pitcher available every year for five years. (Matt Clement was the first one and while that didn't work out after he took a batted ball in the head, he was the best available at the time.) How many times has JH signed the best pitcher available in the past four years?

 

Anybody can spend money. The trick is spending it in the right places.

[mvp 78]

They also had Peña ready to step in for Correa.

 

It was a risk. Pena only has 30 games above A ball. Also, while Pena is a decent player, he doesn't come close to filling Correa's shoes if you look at his numbers. The Astros real strength was their pitching.

[mvp 78]

2003 through 2009.

 

They made the postseason 6 times, reached the ALCS 4 times, won 2 World Series titles and the one “bad” year they finished 3rd at 86-76…

 

Well why don't they have that GM anymore?