Xander Bogaerts has signed with San Diego Padres

[Bellhorn04]

That surprise story was more than just the transaction. The originally Story is that he was blindsided by it. Subsequent stories are he knew the negotiation was over and Bogaerts was talking to other teams. All of those Red Sox/Bogaerts in “intense negotiations” stories appear to have come from Camp Boras as a way to drive to the price. And it worked…

 

Right, I already mentioned that theory.

 

As far as Bloom looking shocked, all we have to go on there is the guy who reported it.

 

Maybe it was like when you know someone is going to die, but it's still a shock when it happens...

[Bellhorn04]

It was also reported, mind you, that multiple other teams were in on Bogey with bids starting with 2.

 

I somehow doubt that the Padres jumped the top offer from 162 to 280.

[notin]

It was also reported, mind you, that multiple other teams were in on Bogey with bids starting with 2.

 

I somehow doubt that the Padres jumped the top offer from 162 to 280.

 

 

Me either.

 

I think the Sox bowed out long before anyone boarded a plane…

[notin]

It was also reported, mind you, that multiple other teams were in on Bogey with bids starting with 2.

 

I somehow doubt that the Padres jumped the top offer from 162 to 280.

 

I also doubt the Sox were the only team in on Yoshida, immediately went to an $18mill AAV, and then learned he wasn’t Senga…

[Bellhorn04]

I also doubt the Sox were the only team in on Yoshida, immediately went to an $18mill AAV, and then learned he wasn’t Senga…

 

With you on that one.

[moonslav59]

I think moon is probably correct that the Sox never had any desire to retain Bogey and the later offer was just for show. It followed the pattern of what happened with Lester exactly, except that they fell even shorter with their bids.

 

How many here, knew the minute we signed Story, the odds of keeping Bogey were cut in half or not more?

 

Many felt that way the minute the reported $30M one year addition to that current contract was given.

 

I know some here might think I didn't like Bogey, weird talking about him in the past tense, but I did- and a lot. I has serious issues with his defense, and I think a guy like Bloom did, as well. They did not want to pay him like a great SS, because they did not see him as a SS going forward. I doubt the Padres do, too.

 

I totally get the whole argument about how "WE COULD HAVE GOTTEN HIM FOR $__________!!!" (Fill in the blank.) I totally agree. My point has been, all along, that at any point you choose to estimate his current market value, the Sox never felt he was worth whatever that price and years were. It's really very simple, if you believe that. What evidence, other than the obligatory and courtesy statements made by Sox brass to placate rabid Sox fans on how much they love Bogey and "want him back" shows they ever felt he was worth market value. Look at their actions not their words. Not even the recent words that are saying, "We meant what we said about him" crap.

 

Maybe, I'm wrong. My opinion is speculation. I know that. I felt that even when they made that final offer to Lester, they really did not want him, and made it just low enough, they knew he'd say no, That's total speculation, on my part, but under Henry, this team sets a price on the value of their own players and very rarely counter with a significantly higher offer (like Lester's) or let sentiment cloud their reasoning (like Schilling's one year pat on the back final contract.) All their sentimental extensions or re-signings seem to be, not coincidentally, one year deals, except maybe the Lowell one.

 

Posters are free to pick apart anything the Sox brass does, but to me, any criticism should be over a disagreement on how the Sox valued Bogey vs how the poster valued him, and not these what if we signed him earlier. I'm not trying to force anyone into my way of thinking, but that criticism rings hollow, to me and maybe only me.

o

If Bloom was a fortune teller, and saw these prices about to shoot for the roof, here's my big "what if:" he'd have extended Bogey at whatever it took- say $180M/7 or even $200M/7 or 8, and then he'd have traded him at today's market prices, because he still doesn't think he's worth even $160M or $170M/6. That's my belief, and by the way, I do think he's worth $170M/6, but that's my max, even in today's inflated market.

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I said that the day the offer was made, and all Kennedy, and Bloom were doing was spinning, and grinning this offseason, and either thought the fans were blind, and dumb for not seeing through the charade, or Kennedy, and Bloom was that dumb themselves. The hard part was to determine if that dumb dumbfounded look on Bloom’s face was actually acting, or not.

 

I'm in total agreement here. Do they really think they are fooling anyone?

 

I know taking the word of nearly any GM is foolhardy, but they need to realize their strategy is having the opposite affect they are hoping for. Fans are not dumb, and maybe Sox fans are less dumb than any. With the expansion of social media and access to so many commentaries, fans can see right through these ruses.

 

Losing Bogey like this makes it worse than if they'd just come clean a year ago and said, "We just don't think he is of the value his agent thinks he is. We love him, but we need to do what is best for the team's future by trading him, now."

 

Yes, fans would be pissed, like they were with the Betts trade, but this is worse.

[Bellhorn04]

Posters are free to pick apart anything the Sox brass does, but to me, any criticism should be over a disagreement on how the Sox valued Bogey vs how the poster valued him, and not these what if we signed him earlier. I'm not trying to force anyone into my way of thinking, but that criticism rings hallow, to me and maybe only me.

 

Fans don't like being lied to. The Sox made it a point to say Bogey was their #1 priority this offseason. We now know that was a blatant whopper.

 

And Bloom did say the same kind of things about Betts just before he traded him.

 

And now he's saying the same things about Devers.

[moonslav59]

My pet theory now is that the Sox hope Devers just says eff this and breaks off negotiations, so when he leaves they have a shot at making it look like they tried, the way they tried with Betts.

 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, EFFF YOU!

[moonslav59]

I agree, but do they trade Raffy like they did with Mookie?

 

They have to, now, assuming they feel the same a bout him as they did with Bogey.

 

They have to see how they handled Bogey turned out worse for the fans and their image than with the better player, Betts.

 

Or, are they really that dumb?

[Bellhorn04]

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, EFFF YOU!

 

One could argue it's already three times, counting Lester.

 

And Devers will make it a Grand Slam.

[moonslav59]

Right, I already mentioned that theory.

 

As far as Bloom looking shocked, all we have to go on there is the guy who reported it.

 

Maybe it was like when you know someone is going to die, but it's still a shock when it happens...

 

Maybe it wasn't a look of shock; it was a look of realization that he and top brass were about to be subject to "heavy" lambasting by the media and fans.

 

Their ruse about to be exposed. I'd turn white, too.

[moonslav59]

Fans don't like being lied to. The Sox made it a point to say Bogey was their #1 priority this offseason. We now know that was a blatant whopper.

 

And Bloom did say the same kind of things about Betts just before he traded him.

 

And now he's saying the same things about Devers.

 

I meant to say "hollow" not "hallow," and I agree. I do think they liked Betts more than Bogey and their offers show that, even more so when adjusted to inflation, but they did not like him as much as what Betts felt the market value was, at the time.

 

I hated the Betts decision, but I felt like they did what they could, offered a pretty fair deal, and did what needed to be done when he turned it down.

 

This whole Bogey thing was a ruse from day one. It sours me, too.

 

If they do the same to Devers, my camel's back breaks, too.

[moonslav59]

One could argue it's already three times, counting Lester.

 

And Devers will make it a Grand Slam.

 

I don't agree on Betts. I do think they lied on Lester, but every GM does this sort of thing. They can't bad mouth a star just because they don't value them like the market does. Yes, they can be more truthful, and I wish they would.

 

I don't think any fan would be offended, even if they disagree, if a GM or team spokesman just said, "We offered _____ what we felt was a very fair contract based on how much we value him. We wished he would accept it, but he did not, so we have to do what is best for the team and part ways."

 

It's hard to say that before looking for a trade, because teams now know you are desperate to trade him, and may think they can hold the GM hostage and give less in return, so maybe that statement is made at the time of the trade.

 

I seriously doubt these guys really believed what they were saying near the end. It was all for show, and they should now realize nobody is buying that kind of crap anymore.

[jad]

As Ralph Nader once famously said: "As long as you keep voting for them, they will never listen to you."

[notin]

Fans don't like being lied to. The Sox made it a point to say Bogey was their #1 priority this offseason. We now know that was a blatant whopper.

 

And Bloom did say the same kind of things about Betts just before he traded him.

 

And now he's saying the same things about Devers.

 

 

To be fair, we have heard multiple stories about #1 priority already this off-season. And unless you just beamed onto this planet last week from the outer reaches of the Horsehead Nebula, then you’ve been done this road before and KNOW that the only true #1priority for any team ever is the most expensive player added that off-season. We’ve all seen those press conferences a dozen times where the GM says “Milton McMillionaireface was our number one priority all along.”

 

So far the leader for that press conference is Yoshida…

[moonslav59]

To be fair, we have heard multiple stories about #1 priority already this off-season. And unless you just beamed onto this planet last week from the outer reaches of the Horsehead Nebula, then you’ve been done this road before and KNOW that the only true #1priority for any team ever is the most expensive player added that off-season. We’ve all seen those press conferences a dozen times where the GM says “Milton McMillionaireface was our number one priority all along.”

 

So far the leader for that press conference is Yoshida…

 

...another LF'er.

 

2020: Verdugo, Beni, Chavis, Munoz, Peraza, Lin, JD, Pillar, Puello

 

2021: Verdugo, JD, Cordero, Schwarber, Marwin, Santana, Munoz, Duran

 

2022: Verdugo, Pham, Cordero, Refsnyder, Almonte, Davis

 

Maybe 2023 will be the year we see 103 or more games from one left fielder.

 

[S5Dewey]

There are all kinds of excuses for the Sox not paying premium salaries for premium players.

"It's Bloom's fault for not signing these guys".

"It's John Henry's fault for refusing to pay what the market is demanding."

"We can't sign [fill in the player's name here] because paying that salary when he's 40 will hamstring us financially and we won't be able to be competitive then."

 

Well, ya know what? You're not competitive NOW and you're not going to be competitive as long as you fear what the team will look like in eight years. Teams are paying that much NOW to be competitive NOW. Sox fans pay a premium to have a competitive team on the field and they have a right to expect a competitive team and I'm getting tired of hearing the excuses that breed systemic mediocrity.

 

We watched Lester walk, we watched Mookie walk, and now we've watched Bogaerts walk, all homegrown talent and I have every reason to think that Raffie will be next. They'll tell us that it's because if they sign these guys now the team will suck in eight years...and we buy that as an excuse for watching talent leave Boston. What they're not telling us...and we should recognize... is that as long as the Red Sox continue to worry about what the team will look like eight years down the road they won't ever be competitive.

 

We watch them dick around with ticket prices every year to make themselves more money but when the time comes to spend that money they hide behind the great motivator - FEAR of what the the team might look like in 2030. And we buy that rationale.

Edited December 11, 2022 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

They'll tell us that it's because if they sign these guys now the team will suck in eight years...and we buy that as an excuse for watching talent leave Boston. What they're not telling us...and we should recognize... is that as long as the Red Sox continue to worry about what the team will look like eight years down the road they won't ever be competitive.

 

Maybe in 8 years...

 

I'm thinking 1-2 more years, but I thought that before this winter began.

[S5Dewey]

Maybe in 8 years...

 

I'm thinking 1-2 more years, but I thought that before this winter began.

 

Why would you think that when the Sox have a recent history of not being willing to pay premier money for premier players?

[moonslav59]

Why would you think that when the Sox have a recent history of not being willing to pay premier money for premier players?

 

Why would you think we do not pay premiere money for premiere players? Or, do you mean only the obscene money given out, lately?

 

The Sale and Bogey extensions

The Story signing

The Yoshida signing

 

No, these aren't like the Price signing, or these absurd recent signings, but we will likely spend $90M on upgrading from 2021, despite a downgrade at SS and maybe 1-2 other slots.

 

I think we keep spending but not like Price. When you look at the very biggest contracts, one can understand the reasoning behind that choice- including the Price signing, as well as Crawford, HRam, Pablo and the recent Sale extension. The other big contract over the last dozen years was AGon. If you look beyond the bitterness of losing Lester and the recency of losing Betts and Bogey, one could say mega signings have been a bad thing for the Sox,.

 

For every non extensions that was or currently looks like a mistake, there are tow mistake big signings or extensions.

 

No Lester extension: Crawford signing and Agon extension.

 

No Betts extension: HRam/Pablo signings

 

No Bogey extension:Price signing and Sale extension

 

Then, there are the plentiful examples of the team letting stars or key players go via free agency or trade just in time. (Agreed, not so many recently)

 

Maybe we should not have kept Pearce but should have kept Perez. Yes, those are minor, but there have been goods and bads over the last few decades, but the ones that hurt the most have been more recent, although Lester was pretty long time agon, and we did make many big signings & entensions afterwards.

 

I'm not sure why some think we will never spend big again. We just dropped $105M on Yoshiad, $32M on Jansen and $18M on Martin. (We also extended Kike at $10M/1.)

 

Look, I had hoped we'd start spending more money on fewer players, this winter, but since March 2022 with the Story signing, we've spent a lot. We may still drop $40M before this winter is over.

 

Last 9 months:

$140M Story

$105M Yoshida

$32M Jansen

$18M Martin

$10M Kike

[notin]

Why would you think that when the Sox have a recent history of not being willing to pay premier money for premier players?

 

 

They have paid premier money for premier players recently, just not their own and not over $217mill.

Reportedly they did offer Betts $300mill (over 10 years), but he turned it down…

[moonslav59]

They have paid premier money for premier players recently, just not their own and not over $217mill.

Reportedly they did offer Betts $300mill (over 10 years), but he turned it down…

 

Story, Wacha and Hill, combined got paid what Bogey might have taken had we offered it to him, last winter.

 

The argument should be over who we spend it on not the fact that we have gone cheap.

[notin]

Story, Wacha and Hill, combined got paid what Bogey might have taken had we offered it to him, last winter.

 

The argument should be over who we spend it on not the fact that we have gone cheap.

 

The Sox spent $122mill in the 24 hours before Bogaerts agreed with San Diego.

 

There are certainly issues with the Bogaerts situation, but cheapness isn’t one of them…

[moonslav59]

The Sox spent $122mill in the 24 hours before Bogaerts agreed with San Diego.

 

There are certainly issues with the Bogaerts situation, but cheapness isn’t one of them…

 

Agreed, Even if they knew all along, they'd never pay Bogey the current market rate, as it changed and sky-rocketed, recently, they could and should have handled it better.

 

They keep thinking they are trying to make the fans happy by pretending to really want him, but they keep getting caught with their pants down and don't learn anything going forward.

 

I think the Betts situation was different. They extended Sale and Bogey and still had JD and Nate on the books, when JH decided before 2019, that a reset was in the books. They sill offered him a hefty contract, and traded him when they knew he would not take it and was headed to free agency.

 

The Lester fiasco was another sham gone bad. They never wanted to pay him but pretended they did to try and fool the fans. Their last offer was not genuine, IMO.

 

The certainly have some serious issues, but they are following a pretty consistent pattern of never going over the tax line 3 years in a row, and resetting, often- sometimes staying under for 2-3 years at a time. They are spending more, this winter in AAV than they have in a long time. They may even go over the line, this year, and reset, next.

 

JH will keep spending. I think he likes to spend big in cycles and usually right before he thinks we are close to having the foundation and supporting cast to go large and long for a player or two.

 

Maybe he's decided not to go longer than 6 years or higher than $140 or $160M. I'm not so sure that's a bad strategy.

 

Having 4 players at $150M may be better than 2 at $300M.

[oldtimer]

Agreed, Even if they knew all along, they'd never pay Bogey the current market rate, as it changed and sky-rocketed, recently, they could and should have handled it better.

 

They keep thinking they are trying to make the fans happy by pretending to really want him, but they keep getting caught with their pants down and don't learn anything going forward.

 

I think the Betts situation was different. They extended Sale and Bogey and still had JD and Nate on the books, when JH decided before 2019, that a reset was in the books. They sill offered him a hefty contract, and traded him when they knew he would not take it and was headed to free agency.

 

The Lester fiasco was another sham gone bad. They never wanted to pay him but pretended they did to try and fool the fans. Their last offer was not genuine, IMO.

 

The certainly have some serious issues, but they are following a pretty consistent pattern of never going over the tax line 3 years in a row, and resetting, often- sometimes staying under for 2-3 years at a time. They are spending more, this winter in AAV than they have in a long time. They may even go over the line, this year, and reset, next.

 

JH will keep spending. I think he likes to spend big in cycles and usually right before he thinks we are close to having the foundation and supporting cast to go large and long for a player or two.

 

Maybe he's decided not to go longer than 6 years or higher than $140 or $160M. I'm not so sure that's a bad strategy.

 

Having 4 players at $150M may be better than 2 at $300M.

 

Would Bogey and one more star have made the team competitive in 2023? Probably not, but it would have hamstrung the Sox down the line. I still look at Houston, who try to extend their best players, but when that doesn't work as in Correa, they find an alternative and they are good at developing from within. They seem to be competitive every year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some still insist that John Henry will start spending big soon -- just because he has in the past. What we're really talking about isn't total payroll (we're #5!) -- but what fans really care about: and that is who the money is being spent on. If you'd rather see Bloom sign 4-5 players rather than 8-9... can we assume that means star players?

 

We all see Bloom Era patterns keep repeating... even though some like to point to Trevor Story as a "splash," we now know his contract for $140 million is exactly half of Bogaerts' $280M. Such "value" signings may well be the trend in Boston, but a year later Story isn't even getting Nimmo money.

 

Longterm contracts are always a risk, but the character of personalities and how individuals project to maintain bodies and sustain stardom are underrated. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts always appeared to be the type of people worth investing in, and two other clubs saw more value in that than the Red Sox. If Raffy Devers isn't that guy, then who is?

[moonslav59]

Would Bogey and one more star have made the team competitive in 2023? Probably not, but it would have hamstrung the Sox down the line. I still look at Houston, who try to extend their best players, but when that doesn't work as in Correa, they find an alternative and they are good at developing from within. They seem to be competitive every year.

 

Yup, and it takes time and patience to get to where HOU is now, plus they tanked for a few years to get a big boost to their farm, which has been paying dividends for a long time.

[moonslav59]

Some still insist that John Henry will start spending big soon -- just because he has in the past. What we're really talking about isn't total payroll (we're #5!) -- but what fans really care about: and that is who the money is being spent on. If you'd rather see Bloom sign 4-5 players rather than 8-9... can we assume that means star players?

 

We all see Bloom Era patterns keep repeating... even though some like to point to Trevor Story as a "splash," we now know his contract for $140 million is exactly half of Bogaerts' $280M. Such "value" signings may well be the trend in Boston, but a year later Story isn't even getting Nimmo money.

 

Longterm contracts are always a risk, but the character of personalities and how individuals project to maintain bodies and sustain stardom are underrated. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts always appeared to be the type of people worth investing in, and two other clubs saw more value in that than the Red Sox. If Raffy Devers isn't that guy, then who is?

 

"Start spending soon?" Since the Story signing, he's been spending as much or more than almost any other 9 month period in Sox history- just not on the players many want and not bunched up on just a handful of splashy names that usually fade quickly and often right away.

 

I'm not saying Betts and Bogey will turn into Crawford and Sale, but paying big studs has not worked for us and most teams. Maybe, just maybe, the better strategy is to spread the wealth and risk.

 

That being said, I had hoped this winter would be more about quality than quantity, and so far we've kinda spread it out, but we did get a top 3 closer on the market, a top 3-5 set up man on the market and a top 4-5 OF'er on the market. We still have $40M and some trade capital.

 

I'm not seeing us signing Correa, Swanson or Rodon/Bassitt, so there are not many "splashy" names left, after them, but if we sign Nate or Syndergaard, Conforto or Gallo and Andrus or Segura, I think we improved the overall team significantly and kept us set up to get even better as Casas and Bello mature and Mayer, Rafaela, Mata, Walter and others start infusing youth into the team at a very low cost.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Start spending soon?" Since the Story signing, he's been spending as much or more than almost any other 9 month period in Sox history- just not on the players many want and not bunched up on just a handful of splashy names that usually fade quickly and often right away.

 

I'm not saying Betts and Bogey will turn into Crawford and Sale, but paying big studs has not worked for us and most teams. Maybe, just maybe, the better strategy is to spread the wealth and risk.

 

That being said, I had hoped this winter would be more about quality than quantity, and so far we've kinda spread it out, but we did get a top 3 closer on the market, a top 3-5 set up man on the market and a top 4-5 OF'er on the market. We still have $40M and some trade capital.

 

I'm not seeing us signing Correa, Swanson or Rodon/Bassitt, so there are not many "splashy" names left, after them, but if we sign Nate or Syndergaard, Conforto or Gallo and Andrus or Segura, I think we improved the overall team significantly and kept us set up to get even better as Casas and Bello mature and Mayer, Rafaela, Mata, Walter and others start infusing youth into the team at a very low cost.

 

You left out "big" in your opening quote. It's the whole point of the Bloom vs. Dombrowski debate. For Dave, "quality over quantity" is no mystery -- he just said you win with star players. For Chaim, "quality" means "value" -- which of course actually means "quantity" (spread out over a lot of short-term mediocrities).

 

What there's no debate about is the Red Sox still need better players at many positions. But then we all know that just fielding a team of big leaguers is quite different than fielding a team of big league contenders.

 

And like some here and many elsewhere keep saying, fans don't care how much they spend -- it's all about who they spend it on.