The 2023 Red Sox Budget

[notin]

The guys that changed are at the top. The bones still seem to be the same.

 

Fair point.

 

But the decision makers are at the top…

[moonslav59]

His surplus value may drop with a new pending arbitration salary Cleveland is less willing/able to pay…

 

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

 

I'm think CLE could just pick Wikelman in Rule 5, if they didn't mind stunting his growth some. Who knows: maybe they would pitch him in low leverage situations.

[mvp 78]

Fair point.

 

But the decision makers are at the top…

 

For the trades and early draft rounds, sure. I don't think the GM really has much of a clue once you get deep into the farm system or later rounds of a draft. Scouts may remember, but GMs won't.

[notin]

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.

 

I'm think CLE could just pick Wikelman in Rule 5, if they didn't mind stunting his growth some. Who knows: maybe they would pitch him in low leverage situations.

 

They could take him in the Rule 5 draft but then Gonzalez has to spend his first year above A ball in MLB. Trading for him allows them to keep him in the minors

[notin]

For the trades and early draft rounds, sure. I don't think the GM really has much of a clue once you get deep into the farm system or later rounds of a draft. Scouts may remember, but GMs won't.

 

I’m not so sure about that. I think scouts drink more…

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not so sure about that. I think scouts drink more…

 

Stereotyping!

[moonslav59]

They could take him in the Rule 5 draft but then Gonzalez has to spend his first year above A ball in MLB. Trading for him allows them to keep him in the minors

 

Yes, I thought I made it clear I knew he'd have to stay on the ML roster if the chose him in Rule 5.

 

I see the advantage of trading vs Rule 5, and the Guardians are not some slouch team that is in total rebuild mode. I doubt the take him Rule 5.

[mvp 78]

I’m not so sure about that. I think scouts drink more…

 

Scouts drink the Kookaid more.

[moonslav59]

A look at our lux tax history under Henry:

 

Over/Under the Tax line:

-12 '03

+10 '04

-11 '05

+1 '06

+7 '07

-8 '08

-23 '09

+1 '10

-4 '11

-2 '12

-0.3 '13

-3 '14

+11 '15

+15 '16

-3 '17

+43 '18

+38 '19

-23 '20

-2 '21

+12 '22

 

Some obvious patterns:

 

1. Never 3 years over the tax line in a row.

2. Several times going under for 2 or more seasons in a row (once for 4 years)

3. Only 2 seasons being under the tax line by more than $12M (2009 & 2020).

4. Almost all the years under the tax since 2009 were by less than $4M. (6 under $4M and only 2020 was by more)

5. Only 2 seasons saw us go over by more than $15M- 2018 and 2019.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Updated (in tax dollars):

 

25.6 Sale

23.2 Story

18.0 Yoshida

16.0 Jansen

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

8.8 Martin

4.7 Whitlock

4.0 Paxton

2.0 J Rodriguez

1.2 Refsnyder

 

Arb Estimates

16.5 Devers

5.5 Verdugo

5.3 Pivetta

3.0 Arroyo

2.5 Brasier

2.1 McGuire

1.0 Taylor

 

7.7 0-3 yr players

1.7 0-3 yr bonus pool

2.3 minor league players

16.5 player benefits

 

192.6 Total (based on cots)

 

40.3 under the tax line

 

Enough for maybe 2-3 from this list...

 

26-30 Bogey or 9-11 Andrus

14-17 Nate

10-13 Kluber

9-11 Conforto or Gallo

Edited December 8, 2022 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

Updated (in tax dollars):

 

25.6 Sale

23.2 Story

18.0 Yoshida

16.0 Jansen

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

7.5 Martin

4.7 Whitlock

4.0 Paxton

2.0 J Rodriguez

1.2 Refsnyder

 

Arb Estimates

16.5 Devers

5.5 Verdugo

5.3 Pivetta

3.0 Arroyo

2.5 Brasier

2.1 McGuire

1.0 Taylor

 

7.7 0-3 yr players

1.7 0-3 yr bonus pool

2.3 minor league players

16.5 player benefits

 

191.3 Total (based on cots)

 

41.6 under the tax line

 

Enough for maybe 2-3 from this list...

 

26-30 Bogey or 9-11 Andrus

14-17 Nate

10-13 Kluber

9-11 Conforto or Gallo

 

Two relievers who are in free falling are getting 26 M?

 

Unbelievable.

[moonslav59]

Two relievers who are in free falling are getting 26 M?

 

Unbelievable.

 

It's $23.5 not 26, and where do you get this "free-falling" stuff from?

 

Jansen's OPS against was an awesome .615, this year, and his last 2 years have been better than 2019-2020 combined.

 

Martin's .622 OPS Against, this year is way better than his career up to 2022 (over .700). It was .726 in 2021.

 

These numbers show they are not in decline. Others might show some slight decline. Nothing comes close to "free falling."

 

[Hugh2]

Two of the better relievers on the market this year. Two guys who would each have been your best reliever last year.

 

The bullpen got a lot better.

 

If Barnes recovers and Houck takes a step forward date I say…it could be elite.

[notin]

The Sox spent about $45.5 mill in AAV so far. And they have acquired 3 RPs and an OF.

 

Xander, if it happens, probably brings this close to $70mill.

 

Now if the $80mill figure is accurate, not much room left. And they would still need a SP or two, and could use upgrades at DH and catcher…

[moonslav59]

The Sox spent about $45.5 mill in AAV so far. And they have acquired 3 RPs and an OF.

 

Xander, if it happens, probably brings this close to $70mill.

 

Now if the $80mill figure is accurate, not much room left. And they would still need a SP or two, and could use upgrades at DH and catcher…

 

Maybe it is no coincidence they met with Bogey, did not sign him, and went large on Yoshida.

 

Maybe we go, Nate, Gallo or Conforto and Andrus. Call it a day.

[Tedballgame]

Sox lost two good pitching prospects, Ward and Song, in the Rule 5 draft. Hope they don't stick all year in the majors. Song isn't even cleared of his military service yet. Hopefully, he doesn't get it this year.

[Larry Cook]

Sox lost two good pitching prospects, Ward and Song, in the Rule 5 draft. Hope they don't stick all year in the majors. Song isn't even cleared of his military service yet. Hopefully, he doesn't get it this year.

 

And we lost reliever politi.

[mvp 78]

The Sox spent about $45.5 mill in AAV so far. And they have acquired 3 RPs and an OF.

 

Xander, if it happens, probably brings this close to $70mill.

 

Now if the $80mill figure is accurate, not much room left. And they would still need a SP or two, and could use upgrades at DH and catcher…

 

Thought it was about 90M available?

[notin]

Maybe it is no coincidence they met with Bogey, did not sign him, and went large on Yoshida.

 

Maybe we go, Nate, Gallo or Conforto and Andrus. Call it a day.

 

Think the Bogaerts negotiations are done?

[notin]

Thought it was about 90M available?

 

It was but I reneged on my $10mill pledge…

[moonslav59]

Thought it was about 90M available?

 

I think the talk was $80M after Martin signed.

[moonslav59]

Think the Bogaerts negotiations are done?

 

I'm not sure. The timing was weird. Big "heavy" meeting with Bogey, then they sign Yoshida.

 

Maybe they sign both, but where is our SP'er? Could I have been right about getting a SP via trade?

[harmony]

With the reported signings of Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida, Sportrac estimates the 2023 Red Sox tax payroll at $192.459 million:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

Will the Red Sox sign Xander Bogaerts and a starting pitcher such as Kodai Senga? Or will the Sox look elsewhere?

Edited December 8, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

With the reported signings of Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida, Sportrac estimates the 2023 Red Sox tax payroll at $192.459 million:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

Will the Red Sox sign Xander Bogaerts and a starting pitcher such as Kodai Senga? Or will the Sox look elsewhere?

 

Cots has $189.6M, so we are under by about $40-43M.

 

Highest needs:

 

SS

 

SP

 

Would be nice...

 

P

 

RF or Dugo/ DH or Dugo

 

C

 

We could spend it all on Correa (ain't happening.)

 

We could mix and match:

 

SS

$24-26M Swanson

$9-12M Andrus

Or, use Story or Kike at SS and find a CF'er or 2Bman (Arroyo/EValdez?)

 

SP

$20-24M Senga

$14-17M Nate

$11-14M Kluber

 

Keep $3-6M for the deadline?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox should now go hard after Rodon or Senga, but if not, they'll still need two more starters, preferably from among the Eovaldi-Wacha-Kluber class.

 

And suddenly, another priority is right-handed hitting -- now that they've officially lost the 3-4 batters from last year's last place offense. Unfortunately, two good fits in Abreu and Haniger are no longer available. So who...?

[mvp 78]

I think the talk was $80M after Martin signed.

 

Got it.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox should now go hard after Rodon or Senga, but if not, they'll still need two more starters, preferably from among the Eovaldi-Wacha-Kluber class.

 

And suddenly, another priority is right-handed hitting -- now that they've officially lost the 3-4 batters from last year's last place offense. Unfortunately, two good fits in Abreu and Haniger are no longer available. So who...?

 

Maybe not great or even plus might be Swanson or Andrus. Brantley at DH is a lefty, too.

 

Either or...

 

Senga & Andrus

 

Nate & Swanson (lose a comp pick for Swanson and not get one for Nate signing elsewhere- a net 2 comp pick loss)

 

Trading Dugo for a RH'd RF'er might be tried. Gallo & Conforto both bat LH'd.

 

[mvp 78]

Maybe not great or even plus might be Swanson or Andrus. Brantley at DH is a lefty, too.

 

Either or...

 

Senga & Andrus

 

Nate & Swanson (lose a comp pick for Swanson and not get one for Nate signing elsewhere- a net 2 comp pick loss)

 

Trading Dugo for a RH'd RF'er might be tried. Gallo & Conforto both bat LH'd.

 

 

Senga

Andrus

Conforto

 

That would be a big finish, honestly. I think they don't get Senga though. Maybe Kluber? It's more likely they just run Verdugo out there in RF this season for better or worse.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't see who supplies the offense, especially with any power. Maybe the MLB keeps using the juiceless ball and it will be all about stealing bigger bases, moving runners, and punching hits through unshifted infields.

[mvp 78]

I don't see who supplies the offense, especially with any power. Maybe the MLB keeps using the juiceless ball and it will be all about stealing bigger bases, moving runners, and punching hits through unshifted infields.

 

For now, the power is Story and Casas. We don't know of Yoshida's power will translate to much more than what Verdugo already has. Will there be more moves? Is Dalbec a platoon DH/OFer?