The 2023 Red Sox Budget

[moonslav59]

I have to think we will be adding a SP'er. My hope is still for a 1/2 via trade, but I'm not counting on it, this winter. More likely, our best hope might be Kluber, who should be a big improvement over Crawford/Wink/Seabold.

 

Let's say we add Kluber, I think our starting is weaker than 2022, on paper, but maybe deeper, since we now have Bello and Whitlock in the 5, and Mata, Walter and Murphy are ML ready or very near being ready. They can all pitch quite a bit without "starting their clocks."

 

With Kluber:

 

1. Sale & Paxton combined (If they can get together and plan out their IL stints to not coincide with each other, that would be great!)

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Crawford/Winckowski/Seabold (Houck?)

9. Mata/Walter/Murphy/Santos

 

Last year:

GS Pitcher (IP as SP only)

33 Pivetta (180) 4.56

26 R Hill (124) 4.27

23 Wacha (127) 3.32

20 Eovaldi (109) 3.87

14 Wink (67) 5.75

12 Crawford (61) 5.43

11 Bello (52) 4.82

9 Whitlock (39) 4.15

5 Seabold (18) 11.29

4 Houck (17) 4.32

3 Davis (6.1) 0.00

2 Sale (5.2) 3.18

 

72 GS'd are gone- maybe a 3.75 ERA.

 

Hopefully, no starts from Crawford, Wink and Seabold (31 combined) + 4 from Houck.

 

Whitlock gets 23 more GSd to replace Wacha's 23.

Bello gets 20 more to replace Nate's 20.

Kluber gets 26 starts to replace Hill's 26

This leaves the 36 GS'd from the scrubs + Houck to be filled by???

A. 18 Sale + 18 Paxton

B. 12 Sale + 12 Paxton + 12 Crawford/Wink/Seabold/Mata & Co.

C. 8 Sale + 8 Paxton+ 20 from others.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox aren't worried about starting anyone's clocks -- not if the new strategy is to only spend medium on signing good homegrown players to longterm buyouts that pre-empt free agency.

 

Fans certainly could care less about four to six years from now, since some of us might not be here.

 

But if the Sox suck, and because of that refuse to promote good young guys from the minors in their development as future stars -- and as a preview of hope for the fans -- then Henry needs to hire that guy from Bar Rescue to run the club.

 

It's a business, but first and foremost, it's an entertainment business. If the front office isn't going to treat it like that, then they better start a new app. that will alert Red Sox Nation when the team is good again, so we'll know when to start watching again.

[Hugh2]

Sometime during the season, the odds are that any and all the rehabbing pitchers coming off injuries and surgeries may have to scale back. Sometime during the season -- which about 99% of fans right now expect to be a lost season -- the team will need more pitchers.

 

When that happens, who would a fan still watching a last-place team want to see: an up-and-coming young arm with upside or Jeurys Familia?

 

Everything is relative as well. There's a difference between rehabbing certain injuries. Sale already spent time rehabbing and starting to ramp back up and then broke his finger on a comebacker. It's not like he's still rehabbing his elbow. How many guys got very little to no innings in the 2020 season and then jumped right back up to 150+ in 2021? James Paxton is also coming back from a grade 2 lat tear. Nothing to sneeze at, but not as serious as rehabbing from Tommy John.

 

I'm not saying I expect 180+ from these guys. But it's not out of the question that Sale can go 150 and Paxton 100 if healthy. As of right now they're healthy, can both happen? Yes can they both get injured again? yes. I think there's very decent chance at least one of them stays healthy all year.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying I expect 180+ from these guys. But it's not out of the question that Sale can go 150 and Paxton 100 if healthy. As of right now they're healthy, can both happen? Yes can they both get injured again? yes. I think there's very decent chance at least one of them stays healthy all year.

 

We know Paxton is healthy as in throwing-a-baseball-hard-healthy?

[Hugh2]

The Red Sox aren't worried about starting anyone's clocks -- not if the new strategy is to only spend medium on signing good homegrown players to longterm buyouts that pre-empt free agency.

 

Fans certainly could care less about four to six years from now, since some of us might not be here.

 

But if the Sox suck, and because of that refuse to promote good young guys from the minors in their development as future stars -- and as a preview of hope for the fans -- then Henry needs to hire that guy from Bar Rescue to run the club.

 

It's a business, but first and foremost, it's an entertainment business. If the front office isn't going to treat it like that, then they better start a new app. that will alert Red Sox Nation when the team is good again, so we'll know when to start watching again.

 

And how good of a job have they done signing homegrown talent early on lately? This also doesn't answer the question of how you find room on the roster for Cutter and Mata who are both slated to start the season in AAA. If Paxton and Sale start the season healthy, then there's zero chance of that happening. And if they're healthy they can compete....don't we WANT to compete?

 

Also, have we not learned our lessons of players development being stunted by being rushed to the majors? we see it time and time again. These are two guys who still need time in the minors, Cutter probably needs to start transitioning to a bullpen role.

Mata could be very good, but if he's not ready why rush him? there's also a new incentive to NOT rush guys. The Mariners have an extra FIRST ROUND draft pick this year because Julio Rodriguez won rookie of the year. You only have to finish in the top 5 and be on 2 of the 3 majors top 100 prospect lists. Mata isn't that, but he might be by next year.

 

This just feels like giving up on the 2023 season before we even have to and in the process possibly making us worse in the long run.

[Bellhorn04]

And how good of a job have they done signing homegrown talent early on lately? This also doesn't answer the question of how you find room on the roster for Cutter and Mata who are both slated to start the season in AAA. If Paxton and Sale start the season healthy, then there's zero chance of that happening. And if they're healthy they can compete....don't we WANT to compete?

 

Also, have we not learned our lessons of players development being stunted by being rushed to the majors? we see it time and time again. These are two guys who still need time in the minors, Cutter probably needs to start transitioning to a bullpen role.

Mata could be very good, but if he's not ready why rush him? there's also a new incentive to NOT rush guys. The Mariners have an extra FIRST ROUND draft pick this year because Julio Rodriguez won rookie of the year. You only have to finish in the top 5 and be on 2 of the 3 majors top 100 prospect lists. Mata isn't that, but he might be by next year.

 

This just feels like giving up on the 2023 season before we even have to and in the process possibly making us worse in the long run.

 

I hear what you're saying. Right now the Red Sox rotation and depth are so thin they may have no choice but to throw Mata in the fire like they did with Bello last year.

[Hugh2]

We know Paxton is healthy as in throwing-a-baseball-hard-healthy?

 

I haven't looked it up, but it can take 3 months to heal from a grade 2 lat tear, which means he wouldn't start rehabbing until around right now. That's plenty of time to be ready by opening day even if he hasn't started throwing yet, which he probably wouldn't until sometime soon anyways.

[Hugh2]

I hear what you're saying. Right now the Red Sox rotation and depth are so thin they may have no choice but to throw Mata in the fire like they did with Bello last year.

 

The Sox have said they're 100% committed to Whitlock as a starter, and have said time and time again that Houck has been asked to be ready to start. More recently they've said that the stronger the bullpen gets the more likely it's that Houck will start. As of right now

 

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Pivetaa

Whitlock

Houck.

 

So at least two guys have to go down before you dip into that depth, and there's still a good chance they grab a starter, making that number 3.

 

Also, the Sox aren't going to promote guys based on future talent but rather who may better help the MLB club immediately. Mata may be the best talent they have in the upper minors, and he may be the guy to get the call first mid-season but on opening day they' probably go with Winc/Crawford over him. Mata is on the depth chart, and I expect him to move UP that depth chart, and I expect him to make his MLB debut some time in 2023. But penciling him into the starting day rotation is just bonkers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You guys do realize that Verlander is a freak of nature (and weighing 50 solid pounds more than Sale, maybe more durable).

 

I know young guys that had Tommy John surgery and were never the same again, and whose careers in pro ball ended quickly.

 

Maybe even Eovaldi is unusual, since he had two TJs and a lot of serious workout rehabbing before finally putting it together in his late-20s... and because he's found that place where he knows how to maintain success, Nate's a better bet to contribute.

[Hugh2]

You guys do realize that Verlander is a freak of nature (and weighing 50 solid pounds more than Sale, maybe more durable).

 

I know young guys that had Tommy John surgery and were never the same again, and whose careers in pro ball ended quickly.

 

Maybe even Eovaldi is unusual, since he had two TJs and a lot of serious workout rehabbing before finally putting it together in his late-20s... and because he's found that place where he knows how to maintain success, Nate's a better bet to contribute.

 

I do not care to look it up rigth now but I remember researching this back in 2016. The success rates of pitchers post TJ. It's not a guarantee guys come back.....but it's actually pretty high. Sometimes guys come back as good or even better.

 

Verlander isn't just a freak of nature for what he's doing, but because of how long he has done it. Most of these guys getting 10-14 year contracts are going to suck for 1/2 1/3 of it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do not care to look it up rigth now but I remember researching this back in 2016. The success rates of pitchers post TJ. It's not a guarantee guys come back.....but it's actually pretty high. Sometimes guys come back as good or even better.

 

Verlander isn't just a freak of nature for what he's doing, but because of how long he has done it. Most of these guys getting 10-14 year contracts are going to suck for 1/2 1/3 of it.

 

He's a freak because he didn't pitch for two years and then came back to have a career year pushing 40.

 

But of course a lot of guys have TJ because it ideally makes the elbow joint stronger after recovery. Sale's delivery and body type aren't the same as Verlander's, but we can only hope he returns to '17-18 status.

[Bellhorn04]

I do not care to look it up rigth now but I remember researching this back in 2016. The success rates of pitchers post TJ. It's not a guarantee guys come back.....but it's actually pretty high. Sometimes guys come back as good or even better.

 

Verlander isn't just a freak of nature for what he's doing, but because of how long he has done it. Most of these guys getting 10-14 year contracts are going to suck for 1/2 1/3 of it.

 

I agree, Verlander is one of those freaks that come along about once per generation. We saw it earlier in his career when he was able to maintain high heat into the 7th inning and beyond.

[Hugh2]

I'm trying to imagine what the Sox budget would look like right now IF they resigned guys like Benintendi/Betts/Bogaerts (no opt out). A lot of assumptions have to be made here because everything is about timing. Maybe Benintendi signs for 15 per after his downward trend, but he might have been less likely to do so if he wanted to bank on himself bouncing back (because he did after they traded him). I'm going to figure penciling him in around $20 per is fair. Betts at $35 million per and Bogaerts at $25 and Devers at $35 (Devers I'm assuming we sign now, could have been less if he signed an extension earlier).

 

Under this scenario who knows who we end up signing and who we don't. I'm going to take the liberty of believing Kike Hernandez is your starting day 2nd in 2023 and Trevory Story was never signed.

 

This puts the payroll at $279 million. with the pitching just as horrible last year maybe worse. That team probably competes, but also probably hasn't reset in years. We probably don't have Mayer/Bleis in the system either. The system as a whole wouldn't have a lot of other guys in it too but that rabbit hole is not worth going down for example e.g. probably won't end up with Roman Anthony last year, but for all, we know they hit on someone else, etc etc. and it's too early to judge. But the system would be pretty thin. and we'd be looking at having lost draft picks and almost no room to sign guys in the international market year in and year out.

 

I understand that's not most fans' concern, but who is starting? because they don't have the money to add to this rotation and Henry would be looking at zero ability to reset the luxury tax in coming years. Even LAD reset several years ago and it's looking HIGHLY likely the go under this year. You may not believe the NY Mets will reset next year (which I do) but they at least have the money coming off the books to do so).

 

Maybe the Sox don't go hard after the bullpen, in which case they have an elite lineup but zero pitching.

 

This is not the argument for not signing all these guys, everything is relative. I'm a big fan of resigning guys earlier, and It's something I hope the Sox start doing because this AIN'T working. Maybe someone from the Devers/Betts/Bogaerts camp takes less money if you're signing them at an earlier age because they see the value in holding out to FA.

 

But here is some food for thought.

 

Everything is about timing, at a certain point in time, JBJ looked like a perennial all-star. After the 2016 season, JBJ looked like a lock to be a .800 OPS guy with GG in CF. That was his age-26 season, and as a 26-year-old he put up more WAR that year than Devers did this year at 26. If we had JBJ on our team RIGHT now in his age 26 seasons with 4 years of team control left and the Sox signed him to a $300/14-year deal it would look like a good deal right now. No one would hate it.

Imagine having to pay JBJ for 14 years. There's risk in extending guys too. Just some food for thought.

[Bellhorn04]

There's risk in everything. Betts and Bogey have been pretty consistent and durable over their careers, so they seemed like decent bets.

 

I don't think anyone ever suggested big extensions for Benintendi or JBJ, but I could be wrong.

[mvp 78]

Imagine having to pay JBJ for 14 years. There's risk in extending guys too. Just some food for thought.

 

I think people are talking about Ozzie Albies type deals, not just handing out Carlos Correa deals to everyone that walks through the clubhouse.

[Hugh2]

There's risk in everything. Betts and Bogey have been pretty consistent and durable over their careers, so they seemed like decent bets.

 

I don't think anyone ever suggested big extensions for Benintendi or JBJ, but I could be wrong.

 

No one suggested it because those guys declined 1/2 way into their team control years.