The 2023 Red Sox Budget

[moonslav59]

We have no way of knowing, if the Sox will reset the tax budget this year or in 2024, but the pattern seems to indicate it will happen, next year or the one after.

 

Here are the tax numbers (AAV) in $millions:

 

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

(73.0 sub total)

 

Arb Estimates:

16.5 Devers

5.5 Verdugo

5.3 Pivetta

3.0 Arroyo

2.5 Brasier (non tendered?)

2.1 McGuire

1.3 Refsnyder

1.1 Taylor (if not healthy, non tendered?)

1.0 Cordero (non tendered?)

0.8 Chang (non tendered?)

(39.0 sub total)

 

6.0 0-3 yr players

1.7 0-3 yr bonus pool

2.3 40 man roster players in minors

16.5 player benefits

(17.5 sub total)

 

$130M Total Estimated

 

Option:

Paxton $13M x 2 (Club option) or $4M (Player option)- good chance both say no.

 

The tax line is $232M, so if the Sox spend right up to the line without going over, we'd have a winter AAV spending budget of about $100M, assuming no Paxton option, and all the arbs given.

 

Our high need areas ranked in order by my own personal beliefs:

 

1. SS

2. SP (1-2 slot)

3. RF

4. RP (possible closer type)

5. RP (solid set-up)

6. SP/RP (depending on where Whitlock is slotted)

7. C

8. DH (1B or 4th OF w RF/CF ability)

9. P (depth)

 

My guess is, we may fill 5-7 of these slots and leave the rest to what we already have in the system.

 

The offseason has begun.

 

[moonslav59]

So, assuming we have $100M to spend, which of the FAs should we sign?

 

Fangraph's estimates (adjusted to reach whole year increment):

 

SS

254/8 Correa

215/7 Turner

168/6 Bogey

139/6 Swanson (23.1)

 

RF :

294/8 Judge

102/5 Nimmo (20.7)

CF

18/2 Kiermaier

 

LF (Dugo to RF):

56/4 Beni

33/3 Profar

24/2 Conforto

 

SP

135/5 Rodon

116/3 deGrom

69/2 Verlander

60/4 Senga

48/3 Bassitt

43/3 T Walker

42/3 M Perez

41/2 Kershaw

38/3 Taillon (12.5)

28/2 T Anderson

28/2 Syndergaard

23/2 Quintana

22/2 Manaea

21/2 Stripling

21/1 Heaney

20/2 Wacha (10.0)

11.5/1 Kluber

9/1 Cueto

 

RP

16/2 Rogers

 

C

70/4 Contreras

 

1B or DH

42/3 J Bell

36/2 Rizzo

34/2 Abreu

26/2 JD

18/2 Mancini

12.5/1 Brantley

 

2B (Story to SS)

31/3 Drury

25/2 Segura

[Hugh2]

Does JBJ's 8 million still count against the cap in 2023?

[Bellhorn04]

Does JBJ's 8 million still count against the cap in 2023?

 

No, it was factored into his 2021 and 2022 AAV's because it was guaranteed money.

[Hugh2]

also, they will probably spend around another 4-5 million on rookies. So isn't the true budget somewhere around 85 million? I don't know TBH, the true numbers always seem to elude us.

[notin]

You left out 2023 Sox RF Joey Gallo…

[notin]

Also is Judge going to be under $300mill?

 

The guy turned down $210/7 already, and that was before his absolutely historic season…

[moonslav59]

also, they will probably spend around another 4-5 million on rookies. So isn't the true budget somewhere around 85 million? I don't know TBH, the true numbers always seem to elude us.

 

That money was factored into what I presented.

[mvp 78]

Turner 30.7

Judge 36.8

Bassitt 16

Kluber 11.5

 

You didn't list any other relievers, so I'll assume Rogers is the only guy available this offseason and I'll pass. Whitlock can be closer again.

[moonslav59]

Turner 30.7

Judge 36.8

Bassitt 16

Kluber 11.5

 

You didn't list any other relievers, so I'll assume Rogers is the only guy available this offseason and I'll pass. Whitlock can be closer again.

 

Rogers was the only RP'er listed in their top 40.

[mvp 78]

Rogers was the only RP'er listed in their top 40.

 

I was just using the estimates based on your list only and ignoring all other FA's.

 

Honestly, I think the Judge and Turner amounts are low which is why I put them in my list. Otherwise, I don't see the Sox grabbing them.

[moonslav59]

I was just using the estimates based on your list only and ignoring all other FA's.

 

Honestly, I think the Judge and Turner amounts are low which is why I put them in my list. Otherwise, I don't see the Sox grabbing them.

 

Yes, I'd certainly keep some money aside for RP'er.

 

I went with Nimmo, Swanson, Brantley, Taillon and Wacha as my picks and left $21-22M for the pen- maybe 2-4 signings.

[moonslav59]

Minimum Needs:

 

SS

 

RF

 

SP

 

RP

 

Probable Needs:

 

RP

 

P

 

 

Possible others:

C

DH/1B

P

[mvp 78]

Yes, I'd certainly keep some money aside for RP'er.

 

I went with Nimmo, Swanson, Brantley, Taillon and Wacha as my picks and left $21-22M for the pen- maybe 2-4 signings.

 

The Swanson $$$ seems really low.

[moonslav59]

The Swanson $$$ seems really low.

 

He should be lower than Bogey, Correa and Turner, but yes. It seems low.

 

I bet Nimmo gets more, too.

[Hugh2]

He should be lower than Bogey, Correa and Turner, but yes. It seems low.

 

I bet Nimmo gets more, too.

 

I would not be surprised if Swanson is the best value going forward. He could be coming into his prime right now. He might be a 5 WAR player thats going to be paid like a 3 WAR guy.

 

Here's a crazy thought, sign both Bogaerts, and Nimmo. Play Nimmo in CF, play Bogaerts in LF, have Verdugo get back into (not bulking) shape and play him in RF, move Story to SS and play Kike at 2B. Kike's is a plus defender there and maybe this is just a coincidence buy his offense is much much better when he's playing the infield.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He should be lower than Bogey, Correa and Turner, but yes. It seems low.

 

I bet Nimmo gets more, too.

 

If a budget-conscious CBO is considering giving Nimmo $100+M for 5 years, isn't Benintendi a much better value? Beni -- not Nimmo -- was an All-Star and Gold Glover the past two seasons.

 

Andrew is also two years younger...

[moonslav59]

I would not be surprised if Swanson is the best value going forward. He could be coming into his prime right now. He might be a 5 WAR player thats going to be paid like a 3 WAR guy.

 

Here's a crazy thought, sign both Bogaerts, and Nimmo. Play Nimmo in CF, play Bogaerts in LF, have Verdugo get back into (not bulking) shape and play him in RF, move Story to SS and play Kike at 2B. Kike's is a plus defender there and maybe this is just a coincidence buy his offense is much much better when he's playing the infield.

 

I'd make it simpler:

 

SS Swanson

2B Story

LF Dugo

CF Kike or Nimmo

RF Nimmo or Kike

[moonslav59]

If a budget-conscious CBO is considering giving Nimmo $100+M for 5 years, isn't Benintendi a much better value? Beni -- not Nimmo -- was an All-Star and Gold Glover the past two seasons.

 

Andrew is also two years younger...

 

Bringing up Beni's GG in LF does not mention the downgrade we'd have in RF with Dugo v Nimmo, but signing Beni at a fraction of Nimmo's cost is not a bad idea.

 

We could also sign Brantley for LF for cheaper and shorter than Beni or Nimmo... a bridge to Rafaela, maybe.

[mvp 78]

I would not be surprised if Swanson is the best value going forward. He could be coming into his prime right now. He might be a 5 WAR player thats going to be paid like a 3 WAR guy.

 

Here's a crazy thought, sign both Bogaerts, and Nimmo. Play Nimmo in CF, play Bogaerts in LF, have Verdugo get back into (not bulking) shape and play him in RF, move Story to SS and play Kike at 2B. Kike's is a plus defender there and maybe this is just a coincidence buy his offense is much much better when he's playing the infield.

 

Swanson is only a year younger than Bogaerts. Unfortunately, part of his prime was wasted in 2020.

[moonslav59]

Swanson is only a year younger than Bogaerts. Unfortunately, part of his prime was wasted in 2020.

 

If it comes down to Bogey at $170M/6 vs Swanson at $160M/7, who do you take?

 

They both reach the same age for the final year of the deal.

[mvp 78]

If it comes down to Bogey at $170M/6 vs Swanson at $160M/7, who do you take?

 

They both reach the same age for the final year of the deal.

 

Bogaerts.

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts.

 

Pretty close for me.

 

How about Bogey at $170M/6 vs Swanson at $140M/6 (same as Story's deal)?

[mvp 78]

Pretty close for me.

 

How about Bogey at $170M/6 vs Swanson at $140M/6 (same as Story's deal)?

 

Bogaerts.

 

Bogaerts just has the much better bat. I see him moving off position in 3 years anyway. LF? 3B? His bat will play.

[dgalehouse]

I think Bloom ticked off Bogaerts with the low ball offer , then giving Story a better one . There may still be time to correct that blunder. Or it may be too late .

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts.

 

Bogaerts just has the much better bat. I see him moving off position in 3 years anyway. LF? 3B? His bat will play.

 

I'd take Swanson due to an upgrade in SS defense and being a year younger. His contract would end at 3 years younger than Bogey's in my second scenario.

[notin]

If a budget-conscious CBO is considering giving Nimmo $100+M for 5 years, isn't Benintendi a much better value? Beni -- not Nimmo -- was an All-Star and Gold Glover the past two seasons.

 

Andrew is also two years younger...

 

The hardware doesn’t mean s as h much (different positions plus want he a KC dole team rep?), but Benintendi’s age and that he’s generally healthier than Nimmo should matter. The big issue with Benintendi is that as a hitter he’s about as unpredictable as it gets. 2022 he was a high OBP singles machine. In 2021, his OBP about 50 points lower but his SLG was 50 points higher. In 2020, he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, but he did draw a lot of walks.

 

So what is he?

[moonslav59]

 

So what is he?

 

Too unpredictable.

[notin]

Bogaerts.

 

Bogaerts just has the much better bat. I see him moving off position in 3 years anyway. LF? 3B? His bat will play.

 

The sooner he moves the better. Banning the shift will make defense all that much more important…

[mvp 78]

I'd take Swanson due to an upgrade in SS defense and being a year younger. His contract would end at 3 years younger than Bogey's in my second scenario.

 

If you sign Bogey for 6 years or Swanson for 6 years, how does Swanson's Contract end 3 years sooner if he's only a year younger? It still ends only a year earlier?