The 2023 Red Sox Budget

[Old Red]

The Ref Man has signed for $1.2M.

[Bellhorn04]

The Ref Man has signed for $1.2M.

 

Now that's a bargain!

[mvp 78]

Seems like Downs is getting way to much ink for the 40th man, but to each it’s own.

 

Not the 40th man, unfortunately.

[Bellhorn04]

Man, Paxton and Ref for 5.2 mill in one day. This might be Bloom's best day of the whole offseason!

[Old Red]

Not the 40th man, unfortunately.

 

Very true that is.

[moonslav59]

Yes, a lot of guys can't hit AAA pitching. THere's a whole slew of guys who can't and then figure it out and become big-league players. Downs has been around long enough to start thinking that may never happen with him but up until recently his spot on the 40 man was perfectly justified. There's literally a Jeter Downs type guy on every 40 man. If the Sox release Downs, and they probably will at some point someone is going to pick him up. As crappy as he is, he can field his position at SS and 2nd and last time I (checks notes) checked you actually need guys to play defense too. Your 40th man on the 40 man isnt' someone good enough to be a MLB player. He's someone who can come up and field the position while a guy is banged up. Sometimes guys like Downs come into their own, sometimes they do not. But you're literally complaining about the guy who may very well be the 40th man on our 40 man right now.

 

How many teams have a better 40th man? Count. I'll wait. But I won't hold my breath.

 

The thing is, he's not the 40th.

 

He did show slight improvement on O, this year, but his time here should be short.

[moonslav59]

Man, Paxton and Ref for 5.2 mill in one day. This might be Bloom's best day of the whole offseason!

 

You troll!

 

[moonslav59]

Updated:

 

The 2023 Red Sox Budget

We have no way of knowing, if the Sox will reset the tax budget this year or in 2024, but the pattern seems to indicate it will happen, next year or the one after.

 

Here are the tax numbers (AAV) in $millions:

 

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

4.0 Paxton

1.2 Refsnyder

(78.0 sub total)

 

Arb Estimates:

16.5 Devers

5.5 Verdugo

5.3 Pivetta

3.0 Arroyo

2.5 Brasier (non tendered?)

2.1 McGuire

1.1 Taylor (if not healthy, non tendered?)

1.0 Cordero (non tendered?)

0.8 Chang (non tendered?)

(38.0 sub total)

 

6.0 0-3 yr players

1.7 0-3 yr bonus pool

2.3 40 man roster players in minors

16.5 player benefits

(17.5 sub total)

 

$134M Total Estimated

 

The tax line is $232M, so if the Sox spend right up to the line without going over, we'd have a winter AAV spending budget of about $97M with no non tenders.

[Bobe2]

Updated:

 

The 2023 Red Sox Budget

We have no way of knowing, if the Sox will reset the tax budget this year or in 2024, but the pattern seems to indicate it will happen, next year or the one after.

 

Here are the tax numbers (AAV) in $millions:

 

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

4.0 Paxton

1.2 Refsnyder

(78.0 sub total)

 

Arb Estimates:

16.5 Devers

5.5 Verdugo

5.3 Pivetta

3.0 Arroyo

2.5 Brasier (non tendered?)

2.1 McGuire

1.1 Taylor (if not healthy, non tendered?)

1.0 Cordero (non tendered?)

0.8 Chang (non tendered?)

(38.0 sub total)

 

6.0 0-3 yr players

1.7 0-3 yr bonus pool

2.3 40 man roster players in minors

16.5 player benefits

(17.5 sub total)

 

$134M Total Estimated

 

The tax line is $232M, so if the Sox spend right up to the line without going over, we'd have a winter AAV spending budget of about $97M with no non tenders.

It would make the most sense to reset this year, otherwise the tax next year for being over goes to 30% and then 50% of amount over cap and we’re back to where we started, give some of the young players a chance to show what they can do next season and have another year to mature and the tax would be reset, that way they would have a better idea as to what positions the young guys can fill and what needs to be filled by other means then they would be in a better position to resign Devers and be able to really spend big on their other needs, keeping this in mind this year I would try to sign good players to short term contracts (guys not given qualifying offers) that you want to re-sign maybe even splurge on a pitcher Rodon might be a nice choice anyway that’s just what I would do

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It would make the most sense to reset this year, otherwise the tax next year for being over goes to 30% and then 50% of amount over cap and we’re back to where we started, give some of the young players a chance to show what they can do next season and have another year to mature and the tax would be reset, that way they would have a better idea as to what positions the young guys can fill and what needs to be filled by other means then they would be in a better position to resign Devers and be able to really spend big on their other needs, keeping this in mind this year I would try to sign good players to short term contracts (guys not given qualifying offers) that you want to re-sign maybe even splurge on a pitcher Rodon might be a nice choice anyway that’s just what I would do

 

If they let Devers become a free agent, a year from now will be a rerun of the same pretensions they're now spewing about Bogaerts, as he heads out the door.

 

Where is the love? Somewhere warmer...

[Bobe2]

If they let Devers become a free agent, a year from now will be a rerun of the same pretensions they're now spewing about Bogaerts, as he heads out the door.

 

Where is the love? Somewhere warmer...

 

I doubt that they sign him now to an extension now, he might not even want to be here anymore, his close group of friends all left this year Vasquez, JD, and Xander, anyway the Sox will be in a better financial position at the end of 2023 season but that’s no guarantee that they’ll offer him the money he wants

[Bellhorn04]

If they let Devers become a free agent, a year from now will be a rerun of the same pretensions they're now spewing about Bogaerts, as he heads out the door.

 

With one difference. If they let Bogaerts go, and don't sign Devers to an extension before the season, everyone will KNOW he's gone, so the pretensions would be utterly pointless.

[Hugh2]

Seems like Downs is getting way to much ink for the 40th man, but to each it’s own.

 

You are literally the one who started complaining and talking about him. Because Moon listed him on the depth chart.....because he is on the depth chart.

[Hugh2]

People do realize that it is and has been a given Devers is going to free agency?

 

Some guys chose to bet on themselves, and unless you dangle absurd money they don't sign extensions. Some guys take the guaranteed money earlier in their careers. It shouldn't be hard to understand that professional athletes of this talent level can have that bet-on-themselves mentality. Xander took the deal, well the first time at least, it still bought the Sox a few extra of his best years. Devers did not. At this point, you either HAVE to give him his demands or wait for him to hit free agency and match. So with that said, any proposed extension that is less than 300/10 at this point shouldn't even be talked about or considered a serious comment in here. That's the Devers price tag right now.

[Hugh2]

It would make the most sense to reset this year, otherwise the tax next year for being over goes to 30% and then 50% of amount over cap and we’re back to where we started, give some of the young players a chance to show what they can do next season and have another year to mature and the tax would be reset, that way they would have a better idea as to what positions the young guys can fill and what needs to be filled by other means then they would be in a better position to resign Devers and be able to really spend big on their other needs, keeping this in mind this year I would try to sign good players to short term contracts (guys not given qualifying offers) that you want to re-sign maybe even splurge on a pitcher Rodon might be a nice choice anyway that’s just what I would do

 

50% of 20 million is an extra 10 million tops. That's a nice chunk of change, but it's not the real deterrent from going over. You add in lose draft picks and then revenue-sharing rebates that are over a hundred million and that really kills it. But you're right. I think overall it does make more sense to reset this year. If they reset this year, they position themselves to go well over in 2024. That's also Sales last year on the books. Probably not the answer people want in here after finishing in last place.

[Bellhorn04]

People do realize that it is and has been a given Devers is going to free agency?

 

Some guys chose to bet on themselves, and unless you dangle absurd money they don't sign extensions.

 

Right, but how serious of an effort have the Sox made to sign Devers to an extension before now?

[Hugh2]

Right, but how serious of an effort have the Sox made to sign Devers to an extension before now?

 

Probably as serious as they were with Bogaerts, Whitlock, Pedroia, and Barnes.....Some guys take the money, others do not.

[notin]

Right, but how serious of an effort have the Sox made to sign Devers to an extension before now?

 

$200million isn’t serious money?

[notin]

People do realize that it is and has been a given Devers is going to free agency?

 

Some guys chose to bet on themselves, and unless you dangle absurd money they don't sign extensions. Some guys take the guaranteed money earlier in their careers. It shouldn't be hard to understand that professional athletes of this talent level can have that bet-on-themselves mentality. Xander took the deal, well the first time at least, it still bought the Sox a few extra of his best years. Devers did not. At this point, you either HAVE to give him his demands or wait for him to hit free agency and match. So with that said, any proposed extension that is less than 300/10 at this point shouldn't even be talked about or considered a serious comment in here. That's the Devers price tag right now.

 

If Devers is not singable, he should be traded…

[moonslav59]

It would make the most sense to reset this year, otherwise the tax next year for being over goes to 30% and then 50% of amount over cap and we’re back to where we started, give some of the young players a chance to show what they can do next season and have another year to mature and the tax would be reset, that way they would have a better idea as to what positions the young guys can fill and what needs to be filled by other means then they would be in a better position to resign Devers and be able to really spend big on their other needs, keeping this in mind this year I would try to sign good players to short term contracts (guys not given qualifying offers) that you want to re-sign maybe even splurge on a pitcher Rodon might be a nice choice anyway that’s just what I would do

 

I agree that re-setting in 2023, not 2024, makes more sense, and we still can spend a lot, this winter and stay under the tax line.

 

When it comes to signing free agents, this winter, I see 5 major slots to fill: SP1 or 2, SS (assuming Story stays at 2B & Kike in CF), RF, RP, RP. Secondary priorities might be another pitcher, catcher and DH/1B. With over $90M to spend, we should see a major difference from the last 3 winters, where we had less money and more high need slots to fill. This, alone, should change what we should see.

 

If we assume the re-set comes in 2023, I'd think about setting these guidelines to FA signings:

 

1. Don't make signings based on the ETAs of Mayer (SS), Rafaela (CF, SS, 2B) and other top prospects. If we end up with a bottleneck at a couple positions, trades can help other areas out.

 

2. Any FA signing longer than 2 years should only be made, if we think the player will not be in serious decline from 2024 and beyond. In other words, avoid long term signings of anyone already at the point of decline or very near it.

 

3. Look to sign shorter term deals at higher AAV, so we aren't handcuffed in 2024 and 2025, when we are more likely to go "all in" or near "all in."

 

4. Focus most of our resources on the big 4 or 5 high need areas, and move away from the previous, but needed at the time, quantity vs quality mentality. We need a top SP'er, SS, RF'er and 2-3 solid pen arms. (One can be a SP'er, if Houck stays in the pen.)

 

I know these are mostly obvious overgeneralizations, but I'm hopeful we can build a solid 2023 team that looks poised to be even better in 2024, when the budget shackles can be removed.

 

[moonslav59]

I doubt that they sign him now to an extension now, he might not even want to be here anymore, his close group of friends all left this year Vasquez, JD, and Xander, anyway the Sox will be in a better financial position at the end of 2023 season but that’s no guarantee that they’ll offer him the money he wants

 

We can get him to sign an extension that begins in 2024, which may help us reset in 2023.

[moonslav59]

50% of 20 million is an extra 10 million tops. That's a nice chunk of change, but it's not the real deterrent from going over. You add in lose draft picks and then revenue-sharing rebates that are over a hundred million and that really kills it. But you're right. I think overall it does make more sense to reset this year. If they reset this year, they position themselves to go well over in 2024. That's also Sales last year on the books. Probably not the answer people want in here after finishing in last place.

 

...and they'll blame Bloom, if the budget is restricted, again. (This time, he will deserve criticism, if we fail, badly.)

 

One difference, this winter: we can reset and still spend over $90M, and we have less high need areas to fill than the last 3 winters, thanks in large part to the long-awaited infusion of young and cost effective players from the farm.

 

Bloom should be able to build a playoff team and reset, at the same time. This is his firepoint winter and may very well set his legacy in stone... good or bad.

[moonslav59]

Probably as serious as they were with Bogaerts, Whitlock, Pedroia, and Barnes.....Some guys take the money, others do not.

 

Yes, and personally, I don't see anything wrong with setting a top bar and not budging from it. The lowball offers to Lester and apparently Bogey seem more like outliers when compared to how many ex-Sox players who left to free agency or were traded right before free agency that ended up not doing all that well, afterwards.

 

That being said, I hope we make a final and fair offer to Bogey and Devers. If Devers says no, we should then tell him he may be traded.

 

I hope the comp pick is worth losing Bogey over, but we may end up signing Swanson for less, and maybe he does better going forward or the comp pick balances out losing Bogey and gaining our next SS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Devers is not singable, he should be traded…

 

But what GM worth his Wong will give up anything decent "for just one year of Devers?"

 

Brusdar, I see you in the morning

Brusdar, asleepin next to me

Brusdar, let the memory of the evening

Be the first thing that you think of...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With one difference. If they let Bogaerts go, and don't sign Devers to an extension before the season, everyone will KNOW he's gone, so the pretensions would be utterly pointless.

 

... as they always are, with fans who don't snort between the lines.

 

And yet, Sam Kennedy will still be running for Speaker of the House.

[Hugh2]

If Devers is not singable, he should be traded…

 

Eh, maybe. But how much will you get for ONE year of Devers? Not as much as you did for Mookie Betts. Maybe without the salary dump you come out ok, but I'd rather go for it with Devers next year, gamble, and make a run at the playoffs in 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

$200million isn’t serious money?

 

No, you're right, it's serious money. At the same time it appears unrealistically light.

[moonslav59]

Eh, maybe. But how much will you get for ONE year of Devers? Not as much as you did for Mookie Betts. Maybe without the salary dump you come out ok, but I'd rather go for it with Devers next year, gamble, and make a run at the playoffs in 2023.

 

A trade is likely to get more than a measly comp pick.

[Bellhorn04]

A trade is likely to get more than a measly comp pick.

 

No question. But then you don't have Devers in your 2023 lineup.

[Hugh2]

A trade is likely to get more than a measly comp pick.

 

Sox do well with those picks sometimes, also it's also about the draft pool money that gives you flexibility elsewhere. Plus lets not also forget one whole year of production from Devers.