A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm not, but when guys the SoxProspect guys are saying that their scout buddies and people in the org they talk to state that Story can't play SS anymore, I listen.

 

I'm not disagreeing. I just haven't read it anywhere.

[Nick]

I still lament the fact we did not sign Schwarber.

 

He's hit 40 HR, 85 RBI and his OPS is .796.

 

What's more amazing is 32 of his homers came as a leadoff hitter, along with 68 RBI.

 

Sure would have been nice to have him hit 4th in the Sox lineup, behind Devers and Xander.

[moonslav59]

I still lament the fact we did not sign Schwarber.

 

He's hit 40 HR, 85 RBI and his OPS is .796.

 

What's more amazing is 32 of his homers came as a leadoff hitter, along with 68 RBI.

 

Sure would have been nice to have him hit 4th in the Sox lineup, behind Devers and Xander.

 

Signing him most likely would mean no Story or No Wacha+Hill+Strahm+Paxton combined.

[mvp 78]

Signing him most likely would mean no Story or No Wacha+Hill+Strahm+Paxton combined.

 

Schwarber signed for $41M AAV? Holy s***! Good for him...

[Nick]

Schwarber signed for $41M AAV? Holy s***! Good for him...

 

Yeah, I just disagree with Moon on this....

 

There would have been a one year overlap with JD who is making $22M this year vs Schwarber's $19.75M.

 

Sox could have traded JD at some point.

 

Would it be horrible not to be saddled with Story's contract?

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, I just disagree with Moon on this....

 

There would have been a one year overlap with JD who is making $22M this year vs Schwarber's $19.75M.

 

Sox could have traded JD at some point.

 

Would it be horrible not to be saddled with Story's contract?

 

2022 fWAR

 

Schwarber 1.6 in 142 games

Story 2.4 in 94 games

 

Story is a much better all-around player.

[moonslav59]

Schwarber signed for $41M AAV? Holy s***! Good for him...

 

I thought my math was bad.

 

Story =$24M/yr

 

Wacha (7)+ Hill (5) + Strahm (3) + Paxton (6)= $21M

 

Both separate examples are about what Schwarber got per year

[moonslav59]

2022 fWAR

 

Schwarber 1.6 in 142 games

Story 2.4 in 94 games

 

Story is a much better all-around player.

 

I'd still rather have Story's remaining 4 years over Schwarber's remaining 3 years.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd still rather have Story's remaining 4 years over Schwarber's remaining 3 years.

 

One more math check - Story's remaining 5 years.

[dgalehouse]

2022 fWAR

 

Schwarber 1.6 in 142 games

Story 2.4 in 94 games

 

Story is a much better all-around player.

 

Pretty good fWAR for a guy who called in sick almost half the time. I guess attendance doesn't count. Anyway, it looks like (not certain, but likely), Philly is going to the playoffs.

[Old Red]

I'd still rather have Story's remaining 4 years over Schwarber's remaining 3 years.

 

I think it depends on who else is on the team, and what is needed most. Hard to pass on 40 HR.

[moonslav59]

I think it depends on who else is on the team, and what is needed most. Hard to pass on 40 HR.

 

Well, as of now, especially with no Story, we'd need Story at 2B or SS more than we need a DH or a LF'er.

 

But, yes, without knowing about Bogey or other additions possible, maybe signing KWong would have been in the cards.

[mvp 78]

I thought my math was bad.

 

Story =$24M/yr

 

Wacha (7)+ Hill (5) + Strahm (3) + Paxton (6)= $21M

 

Both separate examples are about what Schwarber got per year

 

Story's base salary according to Sportrac in 2022 was $20M bucko. If you're going the lux tax route or whatever the Hell you were using, Paxton becomes $10M.

[moonslav59]

Story's base salary according to Sportrac in 2022 was $20M bucko. If you're going the lux tax route or whatever the Hell you were using, Paxton becomes $10M.

 

How did you come up with $41M? (What the hell were you using?)

 

Story got $140M/6, so I counted that as $24M ($23.3M)

 

Yes, Paxton is $10M not $6M, so that makes that total $25M not $21M, so still close to $23.3M. (Take away Strahm it's about the same difference.

[mvp 78]

How did you come up with $41M? (What the hell were you using?)

 

Story got $140M/6, so I counted that as $24M ($23.3M)

 

Yes, Paxton is $10M not $6M, so that makes that total $25M not $21M, so still close to $23.3M. (Take away Strahm it's about the same difference.

 

20 (story) + 7 (wacha) + 5 (hill) + strahm (3) + pax (6) = 41. Straight cash homey.

[Bellhorn04]

Pretty good fWAR for a guy who called in sick almost half the time. I guess attendance doesn't count. Anyway, it looks like (not certain, but likely), Philly is going to the playoffs.

 

Story got hit in the hand with a pitch, so I think calling in sick is forgivable...

[moonslav59]

20 (story) + 7 (wacha) + 5 (hill) + strahm (3) + pax (6) = 41. Straight cash homey.

 

I said "or"

 

Signing him most likely would mean no Story or No Wacha+Hill+Strahm+Paxton combined.

[mvp 78]

Story got hit in the hand with a pitch, so I think calling in sick is forgivable...

 

Boggs beat several HBP’s with the power of chicken and Nyquil. Suck it up Trevor.

[notin]

Boggs beat several HBP’s with the power of chicken and Nyquil. Suck it up Trevor.

 

Margo won’t cook for Trevor…

[moonslav59]

Margo won’t cook for Trevor…

 

Margo doesn't cook unless pantyless.

[cp176]

Yeah, I just disagree with Moon on this....

 

There would have been a one year overlap with JD who is making $22M this year vs Schwarber's $19.75M.

 

Sox could have traded JD at some point.

 

Would it be horrible not to be saddled with Story's contract?

 

It was a big mistake not to bring Schwarber back.

[Maxbialystock]

It was a big mistake not to bring Schwarber back.

 

Meh. Schwarber can't pitch, and pitching has been by far the biggest problem this year. With Schwarber, the Sox maybe finish at .500, but no better.

[illinoisredsox]

I said "or"

 

Signing him most likely would mean no Story or No Wacha+Hill+Strahm+Paxton combined.

 

Some people have trouble with those monosyllabic words.

[cp176]

Meh. Schwarber can't pitch, and pitching has been by far the biggest problem this year. With Schwarber, the Sox maybe finish at .500, but no better.

 

This is a bad baseball team that really may or may not be any better next year. Schwarber would have helped them this year as well as next. We all know that you can never have enough pitching but having a threat like Schwarber in the middle of the lineup would not be bad.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is a bad baseball team that really may or may not be any better next year. Schwarber would have helped them this year as well as next. We all know that you can never have enough pitching but having a threat like Schwarber in the middle of the lineup would not be bad.

 

Old guys like me have seen plenty of Red Sox teams full of longball hitters who failed to drive in more runs than their own crappy pitchers gave up.

 

But all those clubs were more fun to watch than top-5 offenses that hardly ever make contact with runners in scoring position.

[mvp 78]

Meh. Schwarber can't pitch, and pitching has been by far the biggest problem this year. With Schwarber, the Sox maybe finish at .500, but no better.

 

Schwarber had a 120 OPS+ and played 127 games in LF. That was a lot better than what we got out there.

 

They went over the tax limit, so I don't see why they couldn't sign Kyle AND Trevor? JD is coming off the books this offseason to cover Kyle's salary anyway.

[mvp 78]

Old guys like me have seen plenty of Red Sox teams full of longball hitters who failed to drive in more runs than their own crappy pitchers gave up.

 

But all those clubs were more fun to watch than top-5 offenses that hardly ever make contact with runners in scoring position.

 

Bring back the screen on the Monster.

[Bellhorn04]

Schwarber is a DH making $20 mill a year.

 

What about Abreu instead?

 

Schwarber .214 .792

Abreu .308 .831

Edited September 23, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

Schwarber is a DH making $20 mill a year.

 

What about Abreu instead?

 

Schwarber .214 .792

Abreu .308 .831

 

Schwarber played 127 games in LF, sir.

 

Some other numbers:

Schwarber age 29

Abreu age 35

Schwarber 40 HR

Abreu 15 HR

Schwarber 85 RBI

Abreu 72 RBI

Schwarber 19.5 Launch

Abreu 7.9 Launch

Schwarber .498 XWOBACON

Abreu .409 XWOBACON

Schwarber 20.1 Barrel %

Abreu 9 Barrel %

 

If you overlook Schwarber's strikeouts, Schwarber is just a beast. Abreu is turning into an aging Punch & Judy hitter who seemed pretty damn lucky this year. If I'm signing a guy for the next few years, I'm going to have to put my money on Schwarber instead of Abreu. Maybe I'm wrong, but the above numbers point out some disturbing trends for Abreu.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, desperate dave beat us to the punch on Schwarb.

 

WAR is saying Schwarb is overpaid, though.

 

fWAR 1.6

bWAR 1.2