A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Randy Red Sox]

or maybe it's the MO of a guy who either doesn't know what he is doing or doesn't want to totally alienate RSN

If the Sox are in "sell mode" it wouldn't be the worse move. Bloom seems to love this sell-and-buy strategy at the deadline. Wouldn't mind seeing them cash in on someone like Verdugo and bringing in a big RHB. I'd love a CF/RF RH who can hit, or a RH SS with maybe 1.5 years of control left. Perfect bridge to Mayer.

 

You could probably make moves like that and still be set up for an October run if everything breaks right. That kind of seems to be Blooms M.O. too......straddle the deadline.

[notin]

If the Sox are in "sell mode" it wouldn't be the worse move. Bloom seems to love this sell-and-buy strategy at the deadline. Wouldn't mind seeing them cash in on someone like Verdugo and bringing in a big RHB. I'd love a CF/RF RH who can hit, or a RH SS with maybe 1.5 years of control left. Perfect bridge to Mayer.

 

You could probably make moves like that and still be set up for an October run if everything breaks right. That kind of seems to be Blooms M.O. too......straddle the deadline.

 

The buyer/seller thing might be more blurred.

 

Right now there are only 7 teams more than 5.5 GB from the third wild card. Maybe some of the closer ones will be sellers, but they certainly won’t all be. Not even sure how it will get determined.

 

For example, the Mets and Reds have the same record and are therefore both the same distance from the third wild card. Of course the Reds are also still in the NL Central race while the Mets are in 4th, 9.5 GB.

 

And yet somehow I suspect the buyer between these two teams isn’t going to be the Reds…

[moonslav59]

The buyer/seller thing might be more blurred.

 

Right now there are only 7 teams more than 5.5 GB from the third wild card. Maybe some of the closer ones will be sellers, but they certainly won’t all be. Not even sure how it will get determined.

 

For example, the Mets and Reds have the same record and are therefore both the same distance from the third wild card. Of course the Reds are also still in the NL Central race while the Mets are in 4th, 9.5 GB.

 

And yet somehow I suspect the buyer between these two teams isn’t going to be the Reds…

 

Good points.

 

As of now, it looks like these teams will be out of it, and might be interested in selling certain pieces:

 

GB WC

20.5 OAK

18.5 KCR

 

Maybe...

9.5 DET (-5.5 ALC)

8.5 CWS (-4.5 ALC)

7.5 COL

7.0 WSH

7.0 STL

5.5 CHC

 

Borderline...

5.5 CLE (1.5 ALC)

5.0 SEA

4.0 BOS

3.0 NYM

3.0 CIN

2.5 SDP

1.5 LAA

1.5 PHI

0.5 SFG

0.5 TOR

[mvp 78]

If the Sox are in "sell mode" it wouldn't be the worse move. Bloom seems to love this sell-and-buy strategy at the deadline. Wouldn't mind seeing them cash in on someone like Verdugo and bringing in a big RHB. I'd love a CF/RF RH who can hit, or a RH SS with maybe 1.5 years of control left. Perfect bridge to Mayer.

 

You could probably make moves like that and still be set up for an October run if everything breaks right. That kind of seems to be Blooms M.O. too......straddle the deadline.

 

I'm not sure what the Sox would even have to sell.

 

Duvall? Paxton? Turner? Maybe Paxton has the best value there if he's still healthy. Dealing one of the relievers that you have multi-year control over seems like a silly idea if you want to compete next season unless the prices are crazy. They had better pieces last year and didn't do any deals. Why would they be more likely to deal this time around?

[Old Red]

I'm not sure what the Sox would even have to sell.

 

Duvall? Paxton? Turner? Maybe Paxton has the best value there if he's still healthy. Dealing one of the relievers that you have multi-year control over seems like a silly idea if you want to compete next season unless the prices are crazy. They had better pieces last year and didn't do any deals. Why would they be more likely to deal this time around?

 

Maybe Bloom has finally found that third option in the fork in the road. You can’t fool a Yale guy all of the time.

[notin]

I'm not sure what the Sox would even have to sell.

 

Duvall? Paxton? Turner? Maybe Paxton has the best value there if he's still healthy. Dealing one of the relievers that you have multi-year control over seems like a silly idea if you want to compete next season unless the prices are crazy. They had better pieces last year and didn't do any deals. Why would they be more likely to deal this time around?

 

Paxton and Turner likely have the biggest appeal. Kike might as well due to his versatility and CF defense. I could see Duvall.

 

But it’s hard to say. There might not be too many sellers since most of MLB, Sox included, aren’t that far of the place for the third wild card…

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe Bloom has finally found that third option in the fork in the road. You can’t fool a Yale guy all of the time.

 

Paxton and Turner likely have the biggest appeal. Kike might as well due to his versatility and CF defense. I could see Duvall.

 

But it’s hard to say. There might not be too many sellers since most of MLB, Sox included, aren’t that far of the place for the third wild card…

 

Has the third wild card created the third fork in the road?

[notin]

Has the third wild card created the third fork in the road?

 

I think so. The borderline teams that have no clear direction probably look to buying controllable players instead of rentals, just in case ….

[Old Red]

Has the third wild card created the third fork in the road?

 

It certainly makes it different on what to do come trade deadline.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure what the Sox would even have to sell.

 

Duvall? Paxton? Turner? Maybe Paxton has the best value there if he's still healthy. Dealing one of the relievers that you have multi-year control over seems like a silly idea if you want to compete next season unless the prices are crazy. They had better pieces last year and didn't do any deals. Why would they be more likely to deal this time around?

 

The names already being discussed as trade bait for Boston are all damaged by time, and not really difference-makers in even a Wild Card race. Don't expect any better return than a prospect with maybe one decent asset, like Valdez' bat.

[notin]

The names already being discussed as trade bait for Boston are all damaged by time, and not really difference-makers in even a Wild Card race. Don't expect any better return than a prospect with maybe one decent asset, like Valdez' bat.

 

You do occasionally see a team do quite well when selling, even without obvious overpays for rentals, like the Mets sending Pete Crow-Armstrong in order to rent Javier Baez. For example, giving up Scott Effross got Hayden Weneski into the Cubs’ rotation. The Orioles acquired stud reliever Yennier Cano in the Jorge Lopez trade. The Pirates got Oneil Cruz for Tony Watson…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You do occasionally see a team do quite well when selling, even without obvious overpays for rentals, like the Mets sending Pete Crow-Armstrong in order to rent Javier Baez. For example, giving up Scott Effross got Hayden Weneski into the Cubs’ rotation. The Orioles acquired stud reliever Yennier Cano in the Jorge Lopez trade. The Pirates got Oneil Cruz for Tony Watson…

 

I know it happens, but Baez was billed as a top five shortstop in his recent free agent class. Where do we think Kike ranks on the list of big league shortstops this year? Or even on the list of good-glove, .230 centerfielders?

[sk7326]

I'm not sure what the Sox would even have to sell.

 

Duvall? Paxton? Turner? Maybe Paxton has the best value there if he's still healthy. Dealing one of the relievers that you have multi-year control over seems like a silly idea if you want to compete next season unless the prices are crazy. They had better pieces last year and didn't do any deals. Why would they be more likely to deal this time around?

 

Turner should have some value as a bench/cornery bat.

Agreed on Paxton.

If you wanted to be ruthless - at least take calls on Devers (I'm not saying do it)

Kike - though his value is as a super utility guy

[notin]

I know it happens, but Baez was billed as a top five shortstop in his recent free agent class. Where do we think Kike ranks on the list of big league shortstops this year? Or even on the list of good-glove, .230 centerfielders?

 

Baez was also a rental. The Sox rented Kyle Schwarber that same deadline for nothing comparatively.

 

Kike will have appeal as a trade target. No one is going all in and unloading a top prospect for him. But certainly the Sox can get a player with a future for him…

[mvp 78]

Turner should have some value as a bench/cornery bat.

Agreed on Paxton.

If you wanted to be ruthless - at least take calls on Devers (I'm not saying do it)

Kike - though his value is as a super utility guy

 

With Devers' contract, I think it really limits the return you'd get. It also limits the suitors for him. Not sure it's worth having the word out that you were shopping him.

[mvp 78]

Baez was also a rental. The Sox rented Kyle Schwarber that same deadline for nothing comparatively.

 

Kike will have appeal as a trade target. No one is going all in and unloading a top prospect for him. But certainly the Sox can get a player with a future for him…

 

A -0.4 fWAR guy isn't going to have much trade capital. Get another Max Ferguson type? Sox have enough of those. They need to deal the high value guys, but I'm not sure they really have those.

[notin]

You'd have to ask Bloom. It hasn't been reported, but I heard that it was for more money than TEX offered. Maybe it was less AAV, but more years?

 

Probably more guaranteed money. The Texas contract has options and incentives that reportedly can reach up to $63mill over 3 years.

 

Maybe Eovaldi chose to bet on himself…

[notin]

A -0.4 fWAR guy isn't going to have much trade capital. Get another Max Ferguson type? Sox have enough of those. They need to deal the high value guys, but I'm not sure they really have those.

 

The Sox could roll the dice and deal Verdugo.

 

But I suspect one of Duran or Rafaela is more likely. Although probably not to Miami…

[moonslav59]

Teams would likely take marginal talent, if we paid the full boat of the contract, but the returns would be low for marginal talent, too.

 

Still, something is better than nothing, and maybe we fetch the next Wink, this way.

 

Jansen & Martin would have trade value.

Paxton might, if he is still pitching and doing well by the deadline.

Arroyo and Kike might have marginal trade value.

I doubt Duran will be traded, but this could be the last "sell high" moment, or it could be a mistake to trade him.

Dugo has real value.

Duvall might, depending on how he looks by August.

I doubt we trade McGuire or Wong.

Casas might fetch the best return, but he will not be traded, unless as part of a package for an ace, but that would mean we are buyers not sellers.

 

We could determine that Wink or Crawford are at peak value and trade one, but IMO, we need to keep all our pitchers with even a sliver of promise, and both have more than a sliver.

[mvp 78]

The Sox could roll the dice and deal Verdugo.

 

But I suspect one of Duran or Rafaela is more likely. Although probably not to Miami…

 

I didn't want to mention the Verdugo thing. He has one more ARB year and has recouped a lot of his value this season. Probably has more real trade value than the other guys mentioned.

 

However, I think the plan is to move Masataka to a more fulltime DH role starting next year. They'll need to fill all three OFer spots. If they get rid of Verdugo, Abreu better be ready for fulltime AB's.

 

2024:

LF Refsnyder/Valdez?

CF Duran/Abreu

RF Verdugo

[Old Red]

I didn't want to mention the Verdugo thing. He has one more ARB year and has recouped a lot of his value this season. Probably has more real trade value than the other guys mentioned.

 

However, I think the plan is to move Masataka to a more fulltime DH role starting next year. They'll need to fill all three OFer spots. If they get rid of Verdugo, Abreu better be ready for fulltime AB's.

 

2024:

LF Refsnyder/Valdez?

CF Duran/Abreu

RF Verdugo

 

What are they going to do with Turner next year? If Turner stays Yoshida stays in LF. The big question with Dugy is do you want to offer him another contract, or not. As for Duran what he does the rest of the season will go a long way to deciding if he’s in the Red Sox plans to be a FT CF.

[moonslav59]

I didn't want to mention the Verdugo thing. He has one more ARB year and has recouped a lot of his value this season. Probably has more real trade value than the other guys mentioned.

 

However, I think the plan is to move Masataka to a more fulltime DH role starting next year. They'll need to fill all three OFer spots. If they get rid of Verdugo, Abreu better be ready for fulltime AB's.

 

2024:

LF Refsnyder/Valdez?

CF Duran/Abreu

RF Verdugo

 

Turner has a weird player plus team option that could give him a big raise. If Yoshida goes to DH, we will have to hope Turner says no, or we trade him.

[Randy Red Sox]

nonetheless watch Bloom take another SS with our 1st rd pick next week

A lot of people are still projecting Mayer as "two years away." I guess they think Mayer would go A/AA in 23 and AA/AAA in 24? I think he'll exceed those expectations. That's just me.

[moonslav59]

nonetheless watch Bloom take another SS with our 1st rd pick next week

 

If he’s the best player, he better do it!

[Randy Red Sox]

sure because we need more SS's.

If he’s the best player, he better do it!

[Randy Red Sox]

If he’s the best player, he better do it!

 

 

since when has BLOOM taken the best player available with his 1st rd pick other than Mayer?

[moonslav59]

since when has BLOOM taken the best player available with his 1st rd pick other than Mayer?

 

Did I say that?

[moonslav59]

Drafting by positional need is insane.

[notin]

sure because we need more SS's.

 

He’s only taken high school shortstops. In high school, the shortstop is really just the best player on the team. And most high schoolers change positions in the minors anyway…

[Hugh2]

nonetheless watch Bloom take another SS with our 1st rd pick next week

 

I remember when I had my first beer.