A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

I have a very vivid memory of it, because I got a lot of pushback around here for suggesting it. Obviously opinions differentiate wildly on this board. But not many wanted Nate around here, even less wanted Wacha back.

 

I think there's a vastly different conversation between QO and FA contract. Almost nobody wanted Wacha back.

[Duran Is The Man]

I think there's a vastly different conversation between QO and FA contract. Almost nobody wanted Wacha back.

 

i did. nate too.

[moonslav59]

I wanted Wacha and thought the deal he got was less than I expected. Some talked about the numbers that showed he was not as good as it appeared last year, but $7M a year? Even if you just get 2 good years out of him, it should be worth it.

 

(Watch him hit the IL, tomorrow.)

[Bellhorn04]

I wanted Wacha and thought the deal he got was less than I expected. Some talked about the numbers that showed he was not as good as it appeared last year, but $7M a year? Even if you just get 2 good years out of him, it should be worth it.

 

(Watch him hit the IL, tomorrow.)

 

We keep talking about Wacha only getting 4 years and 26 mill, but if he has a good year, he will get more, and could become a free agent again.

[Hugh2]

We keep talking about Wacha only getting 4 years and 26 mill, but if he has a good year, he will get more, and could become a free agent again.

 

Is it really fair to call it 4/26? We could also call it a 3/36 deal too. It's a very wacky deal, but if the team doesn't want to pay him $16 million in 24/25 there's a really good chance he can find someone to pay him more than his $6 million player option.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it really fair to call it 4/26? We could also call it a 3/36 deal too. It's a very wacky deal, but if the team doesn't want to pay him $16 million in 24/25 there's a really good chance he can find someone to pay him more than his $6 million player option.

 

I actually like the deal myself, I think it spreads the risk fairly between the player and the team. If Wacha has a great season he'll cash in. If he has a lousy season he'll have to settle for a lot less.

[Dipre]

So apparently teams are including TJS provisions into contracts now. Elbow problems are an epidemic.

[mvp 78]

So apparently teams are including TJS provisions into contracts now. Elbow problems are an epidemic.

 

That's crazy because it's the teams that are requesting the pitchers to hurt their elbows.

[notin]

So apparently teams are including TJS provisions into contracts now. Elbow problems are an epidemic.

 

The Sox had a similar clause in John Lackeys contract…

[notin]

I actually like the deal myself, I think it spreads the risk fairly between the player and the team. If Wacha has a great season he'll cash in. If he has a lousy season he'll have to settle for a lot less.

 

It’s less team friendly than I like.

 

If Wacha is ineffective, you get him for the full 4 years…

[Hugh2]

It’s less team friendly than I like.

 

If Wacha is ineffective, you get him for the full 4 years…

 

But all it takes is one team willing to give him 1/10 for him to opt out of that contract. There's no way he pitches 4 years of that deal.....one way or another.

[Dipre]

The Sox had a similar clause in John Lackeys contract…

 

Yeah but in Lackey's contract, it voided the last year of the deal, the new TJS clause model adds years based on a lower AAV to the contracts, with DeGrom being an example.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s less team friendly than I like.

 

If Wacha is ineffective, you get him for the full 4 years…

 

Sure, you're out 6.5 mill * 4.

 

I think you have to be willing to take on a wee bit of risk to acquire any pitcher that's worth acquiring...

[notin]

Sure, you're out 6.5 mill * 4.

 

I think you have to be willing to take on a wee bit of risk to acquire any pitcher that's worth acquiring...

 

Does Wacha meet that? His 2022 was a bit of an outlier for his past 6 seasons…

[Bellhorn04]

Does Wacha meet that? His 2022 was a bit of an outlier for his past 6 seasons…

 

True, but we're still talking about the low end of the price spectrum. And Bloom must have seen enough that was encouraging in how Wacha finished in 2021.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sure, you're out 6.5 mill * 4.

 

I think you have to be willing to take on a wee bit of risk to acquire any pitcher that's worth acquiring...

 

... especially, it seems, nowadays, when every week someone feels a twinge in his elbow and suddenly lost for the next two years.

 

Maybe we waste too much time arguing about age, since it doesn't matter how old a guy is, because they all break down eventually at one time or another. An interesting stat to research would be how many modern pitchers on each team don't go on the IL and never miss a turn in the rotation or call to the pen (that would be year-to-year, since whole careers are never unmarred).

 

And this is why I'm never concerned about the back end of a longterm contract, and the supposed burden on payroll and taxes. All signings are based on how the player can help now and in the near future, with the understanding that the entire payout is based on a hopefully productive front end.

[mvp 78]

... especially, it seems, nowadays, when every week someone feels a twinge in his elbow and suddenly lost for the next two years.

 

Maybe we waste too much time arguing about age, since it doesn't matter how old a guy is, because they all break down eventually at one time or another. An interesting stat to research would be how many modern pitchers on each team don't go on the IL and never miss a turn in the rotation or call to the pen (that would be year-to-year, since whole careers are never unmarred).

 

And this is why I'm never concerned about the back end of a longterm contract, and the supposed burden on payroll and taxes. All signings are based on how the player can help now and in the near future, with the understanding that the entire payout is based on a hopefully productive front end.

 

A lot of people on here were certainly concerned with the backend of Price's contract!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A lot of people on here were certainly concerned with the backend of Price's contract!

 

I was on record from the beginning of not wanting Price at all, because all he could do in the postseason at that point was whine about Ortiz taking him deep and not sprinting out of the box on 400 foot dingers. He was never someone I would invest in for the biggest contract in the history of baseball. Just typing it hurts: 7 years for $217 million dollars, a $31M AAV.

 

But I was all in on Eovaldi for 4 years at $17M AAV.

[notin]

A lot of people on here were certainly concerned with the backend of Price's contract!

 

The backend started in year two…

[moonslav59]

The backend started in year two…

 

That is something that happens quite a bit with big FA pitcher signings.

 

I felt the Price signing was necessary, and that he was about as safe a bet as you can get, which isn’t saying much.

 

I knew the backend would screw us, but I was thinking maybe last 2-3 years- maybe 4, not 5-6 of 7!

[notin]

That is something that happens quite a bit with big FA pitcher signings.

 

I felt the Price signing was necessary, and that he was about as safe a bet as you can get, which isn’t saying much.

 

I knew the backend would screw us, but I was thinking maybe last 2-3 years- maybe 4, not 5-6 of 7!

 

And that’s probably why the Sox have limited spending on the rotation to short deals. The only other major pitching expenditure was Sale, and so far he’s been costing the Sox roughly $2mill per IP…

[Bellhorn04]

And that’s probably why the Sox have limited spending on the rotation to short deals. The only other major pitching expenditure was Sale, and so far he’s been costing the Sox roughly $2mill per IP…

 

Sale extension has been a disaster.

 

OTOH Kluber isn't doing much to make the bargain bin strategy look good.

[notin]

Sale extension has been a disaster.

 

OTOH Kluber isn't doing much to make the bargain bin strategy look good.

 

Sure that strategy looks bad when you solely focus on the disasters. Did Wacha, Hill and Paxton make the Bargain Bin strategy look bad?

 

And do you really think Kluber’s contract is on par with Sale’s regarding impact to the team? Sale’s deal was signed almost 5 years ago and Kluber’s still ends first…

[Old Red]

Sure that strategy looks bad when you solely focus on the disasters. Did Wacha, Hill and Paxton make the Bargain Bin strategy look bad?

 

And do you really think Kluber’s contract is on par with Sale’s regarding impact to the team? Sale’s deal was signed almost 5 years ago and Kluber’s still ends first…

Richards, Kluber, and Rich hill makes the Bargin Bin strategy look bad, and cost about the same as a year of Frail.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure that strategy looks bad when you solely focus on the disasters. Did Wacha, Hill and Paxton make the Bargain Bin strategy look bad?

 

And do you really think Kluber’s contract is on par with Sale’s regarding impact to the team? Sale’s deal was signed almost 5 years ago and Kluber’s still ends first…

 

The bargain guys who do well are only with us for one season, so that can be questioned too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The bargain guys who do well are only with us for one season, so that can be questioned too.

 

But... but... BUTT -- it gives us flexibility to sign more one-year dears next winter!

[notin]

The bargain guys who do well are only with us for one season, so that can be questioned too.

 

Well, that’s kind of a circular logic. Most bargain basement players are signed to one year deals…

[notin]

Richards, Kluber, and Rich hill makes the Bargin Bin strategy look bad, and cost about the same as a year of Frail.

 

Rich Hill was bad? FIP and fWAR say he outpitched Wacha!!

[Bellhorn04]

Well, that’s kind of a circular logic. Most bargain basement players are signed to one year deals…

 

True, but as far as the rotation concerned, Bloom seems to be building a bridge to nowhere. He's going to have to make a big trade or a risky signing at some point...assuming he's around to do so.

[mvp 78]

Rich Hill was bad? FIP and fWAR say he outpitched Wacha!!

 

It wasn't great. Sox team starter fWAR last season was ranked 18th. CHW at 15 was 3.4 fWAR higher (needed Hill and Wacha to be twice as good to make up the difference).