A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

The Sox could easily sign Senga, Taillon, and Conforto addressing three needs and have plenty of money left over to address short stop and Devers. You should have around 45 million to play with after that. You don’t have to worry about not having enough money for Bogey. Or Correa/Turner if you wanted an upgrade.

 

No sense in painting yourself into a corner when you don’t need to.

 

 

Exactly you can’t sign any player until that player is ready to sign. That includes Bogaerts.

 

Of course the idea the Sox need to rush with Devers is ridiculous. Signed out not, he’s on the Sox in 2023…

[Hugh2]

Exactly you can’t sign any player until that player is ready to sign. That includes Bogaerts.

 

Of course the idea the Sox need to rush with Devers is ridiculous. Signed out not, he’s on the Sox in 2023…

 

They could also sign Devers to an extension this year and have it kick in after next season, making a Devers extension this offseason 100% unrelated to this years budget.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I disagree, the Sox have an ideal what those guys will cost, within +-6-7 million AAV between the two of them. And Raffys extension can be made to kick in next year if need that AAV back to get under the cap.

 

That should NOT stop them from addressing the rotation and other area of needs. If they wait for the dominoes to fall in the short stop market, they could end up losing out on the pitching market.

 

But if the organization didn't really want to spend big bucks on premium free agents this winter, isn't waiting on Bogey the perfect built-in excuse? By the time Boras' clients sign, all the other top talent may have already found new homes.

 

Meanwhile, the impatient fan base should know by now to just get excited about welcoming and watching this year's next diamonds in the ruff.

[Hugh2]

But if the organization didn't really want to spend big bucks on premium free agents this winter, isn't waiting on Bogey the perfect built-in excuse? By the time Boras' clients sign, all the other top talent may have already found new homes.

 

Meanwhile, the impatient fan base should know by now to just get excited about welcoming and watching this year's next diamonds in the ruff.

 

Whether or not this is true has zero bearing on the fact that they have the money to address other needs and not worry about having enough left over to sign a SS. Whether or not you or I think that’s going to be one of the big 4 is irrelevant.

[notin]

They could also sign Devers to an extension this year and have it kick in after next season, making a Devers extension this offseason 100% unrelated to this years budget.

 

Absolutely. Multiple options. No need to rush. Not like Devers - with one year to go - is going to give the Sox any discount for signing him early…

[Hugh2]

Bogaerts is probably going to get 150-200…depending on the years.

 

If he’s asking for 250, why would sign him? Why not let him see that money isn’t out there and then sign him to a more reasonable extension.

 

There are times when it makes sense to let a player see what is really out there for them.

 

I do not think that happens, I do not believe Bogey gets that kind of money, but if he does that means Correa and Turner are getting 300+. At that point you mine as well sign a stop gap like Iglesias and allocate your beans to a guy like Verlander on a high AAV short term deal.

 

There’s value in striking first. There’s also tremendous value in being patient at times. Love or hate Bloom, hate the decisions he makes, it’s well within your rights but that statement is true.

Edited November 26, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[notin]

Bogaerts is probably going to get 150-200…depending on the years.

 

If he’s asking for 250, why would sign him? Why not let him see that money isn’t out there and then sign him to a more reasonable extension.

 

There are times when it makes sense to let a player see what is really out there for them.

 

I do not think that happens, I do not believe Bogey gets that kind of money, but if he does that means Correa and Turner are getting 300+. At that point you mine as well sign a stop gap like Iglesias and allocate your beans to a guy like Verlander on a high AAV short term deal.

 

There’s value in striking first. There’s also tremendous value in being patient at times. Love or hate Bloom, hate the decisions he makes, it’s well within your rights but that statement is true.

 

Bogaerts would be a tough call for me.

 

The bat plays. The glove doesn’t. And if you can extend the more critical player in Devers, what do you do with Bogaerts once you realize he isn’t a shortstop anymore?

[Hugh2]

Bogaerts would be a tough call for me.

 

The bat plays. The glove doesn’t. And if you can extend the more critical player in Devers, what do you do with Bogaerts once you realize he isn’t a shortstop anymore?

 

Move him in two years. 3B/LF/2B

 

This is why I don’t sign Bogey if his market is 220+ at that point you are better off signing a guy who can play SS long term.

[notin]

Move him in two years. 3B/LF/2B

 

This is why I don’t sign Bogey if his market is 220+ at that point you are better off signing a guy who can play SS long term.

 

 

2b is locked up for the next 5 years and if you sign Devers, 3b is locked up for a while, too.

 

There are reasons to sign Bogaerts and reasons not to…

[Hugh2]

2b is locked up for the next 5 years and if you sign Devers, 3b is locked up for a while, too.

 

There are reasons to sign Bogaerts and reasons not to…

 

Who says Story can play 2nd in two years? Who says Devers can play 3B in 2 years? Also LF is also an option. Since when does everything work out the way it’s supposed to and everyone stays healthy and no one ever declines?

 

If by some miracle everything works out and by 2025 Story is an ALL star at 2nd, Devers is still at least an average defender middle of the order bat at 3Rd, and Casas is an all star at first, then move him to LF. Or trade someone. You can always trade from surplus, it’s a good problem to have.

 

Also, what if Mayers is a bust? There’s just so much that can happen in even just two years. And like I said, if everything breaks right it’s a good problem to have.

 

It’s like, why get pitching this offseason? What if Sale stays healthy and pitches like a TOTRS, Paxton is good, Bello is a rookie ACE, Whitlock transitions to the rotation great and a Pivetta is Pivetta. Is this team worse off if they went out and signed a guy like Eovaldi or Taillon? It’s a good problem to have.

[Hugh2]

But to reiterate a point, everything never breaks right.

[notin]

Who says Story can play 2nd in two years? Who says Devers can play 3B in 2 years? Also LF is also an option. Since when does everything work out the way it’s supposed to and everyone stays healthy and no one ever declines?

 

If by some miracle everything works out and by 2025 Story is an ALL star at 2nd, Devers is still at least an average defender middle of the order bat at 3Rd, and Casas is an all star at first, then move him to LF. Or trade someone. You can always trade from surplus, it’s a good problem to have.

 

Also, what if Mayers is a bust? There’s just so much that can happen in even just two years. And like I said, if everything breaks right it’s a good problem to have.

 

It’s like, why get pitching this offseason? What if Sale stays healthy and pitches like a TOTRS, Paxton is good, Bello is a rookie ACE, Whitlock transitions to the rotation great and a Pivetta is Pivetta. Is this team worse off if they went out and signed a guy like Eovaldi or Taillon? It’s a good problem to have.

 

 

If Story can’t play 2b and Devers can’t play 3b and Bogaerts can’t play SS, the Sox are going to have a horrible logjam in LF.

 

Devers really isn’t an average defender. He’s a below average glove with a bat that more than makes up for it…

[Hugh2]

If Story can’t play 2b and Devers can’t play 3b and Bogaerts can’t play SS, the Sox are going to have a horrible logjam in LF.

 

Devers really isn’t an average defender. He’s a below average glove with a bat that more than makes up for it…

 

You know what I meant. Haha

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts is probably going to get 150-200…depending on the years.

 

If he’s asking for 250, why would sign him? Why not let him see that money isn’t out there and then sign him to a more reasonable extension.

 

There are times when it makes sense to let a player see what is really out there for them.

 

I do not think that happens, I do not believe Bogey gets that kind of money, but if he does that means Correa and Turner are getting 300+. At that point you mine as well sign a stop gap like Iglesias and allocate your beans to a guy like Verlander on a high AAV short term deal.

 

There’s value in striking first. There’s also tremendous value in being patient at times. Love or hate Bloom, hate the decisions he makes, it’s well within your rights but that statement is true.

 

Great post.

 

If we look at last year's Seager, Semien, Baez and Story signings, as unfulfilling as Story looked in 2022, I'd rather have him at $140/6 than any of the others, and I believe he was the last to sign.

 

I can see the point being made about thinking we have to know how much we will spend at SS and 3B before knowing how much we have to spend elsewhere, but I'm sure management has worked out dozen of permutations and scenarios beyond plan Z.

 

Also, say for example we are thinking we want Bogey, but if we don't get him and will go cheap at SS, and instead go hard after Nimmo, wouldn't we tell Nimmo's agent to wait until our SS situation is settled before letting him sign elsewhere for less? I do think these types of conversations are made between GMs and agents.

 

It is likely we have a plan like this:

 

We will sign Correa or Bogey, unless the price is way too high, and we settle on Swanson. What's the difference in AAV? Maybe $3-9M? Is that amount enough to determine we can't sign other players we want before deciding on SS? I think not.

[moonslav59]

Move him in two years. 3B/LF/2B

 

This is why I don’t sign Bogey if his market is 220+ at that point you are better off signing a guy who can play SS long term.

 

That's how I have always seen it, but to me, $170/6 or $190/7 is too much. His bat should be very good for most of a long deal, but that's a lot to pay for a LF'er or 3B/2B. Probably 3B would be best, and maybe by then Devers will be "ready" to move to 1B as Mayer becomes our long term SS. This squeezes Casas, but it's not a bad problem to have.

 

Personally, I'd offer Bogey $160/6 and go to $170/6 or $190/7 only if Correa is getting Seager money and what Swanson gets plus the loss of a draft pick is deemed too much as well. I hope we get one of these 3, but I get a bad feeling we won't. We may view Mayer as too close to the bigs to go large and long at SS. I guess, if Bogey agrees to move off SS in a couple years, he might be the best choice of the 3, but if we don't go large and long at SS, where and ow do we spend the $90M?

 

It won't be Judge. Nimmon has the lost draft pick attached and will have so many teams bidding for him, he will likely be grossly overpaid. deGrom? I doubt it.

 

We don't have 9 roster slots open to sign nine $10M decent but not great players. We barely have 6 slots for six $15M players, but can anyone name exactly six $15M players we could sign to make this team a strong contender? Or three $20M guys plus three $10M guys?

 

I'm wondering, if we end up going for a guy like Verlander, so we don't hamper longer term budget issues. Maybe trade for Sean Murphy, sign Conforto/Gallo/Bellinger/Beni to play corner OF, add a couple solid pen arms and go cheap at SS.

 

This winter's FA crop, other than SS, doesn't fit our needs too well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hope I'm wrong but predict the Red Sox won't sign anyone attached to a Qualifying Offer... including their own free agents. Bloom gave one up to sign Story, and he'll obviously want it back, somehow.

 

Maybe it depends on where the Sox wind up picking in the draft; does anyone know when the new lottery order gets set -- as in, months before or the day of the draft?

[Hugh2]

I hope I'm wrong but predict the Red Sox won't sign anyone attached to a Qualifying Offer... including their own free agents. Bloom gave one up to sign Story, and he'll obviously want it back, somehow.

 

Maybe it depends on where the Sox wind up picking in the draft; does anyone know when the new lottery order gets set -- as in, months before or the day of the draft?

 

They could hypothetically sign Senga/Correa/Taillon/Conforto plus some bullpen help without losing one pick and actually net two. That’s not a bad off-season.

 

Edit: They could do this and stay under the luxury tax while extending Devers. They could does not equate to they willl. But there’s a lot of talent without draft pick compensation this off season.

[Hugh2]

That's how I have always seen it, but to me, $170/6 or $190/7 is too much. His bat should be very good for most of a long deal, but that's a lot to pay for a LF'er or 3B/2B. Probably 3B would be best, and maybe by then Devers will be "ready" to move to 1B as Mayer becomes our long term SS. This squeezes Casas, but it's not a bad problem to have.

 

Personally, I'd offer Bogey $160/6 and go to $170/6 or $190/7 only if Correa is getting Seager money and what Swanson gets plus the loss of a draft pick is deemed too much as well. I hope we get one of these 3, but I get a bad feeling we won't. We may view Mayer as too close to the bigs to go large and long at SS. I guess, if Bogey agrees to move off SS in a couple years, he might be the best choice of the 3, but if we don't go large and long at SS, where and ow do we spend the $90M?

 

It won't be Judge. Nimmon has the lost draft pick attached and will have so many teams bidding for him, he will likely be grossly overpaid. deGrom? I doubt it.

 

We don't have 9 roster slots open to sign nine $10M decent but not great players. We barely have 6 slots for six $15M players, but can anyone name exactly six $15M players we could sign to make this team a strong contender? Or three $20M guys plus three $10M guys?

 

I'm wondering, if we end up going for a guy like Verlander, so we don't hamper longer term budget issues. Maybe trade for Sean Murphy, sign Conforto/Gallo/Bellinger/Beni to play corner OF, add a couple solid pen arms and go cheap at SS.

 

This winter's FA crop, other than SS, doesn't fit our needs too well.

 

The thing is Turner and Swanson both have very weak arms. Meaning once they lose a step they will become negative at SS fast and where they can move to will be limited. I think it’s Bogaerts/Correa or bust.

 

I’d also add Starting pitching to the free agent class. There’s a ton of mid rotation depth and we could use a couple starters.

[notin]

I hope I'm wrong but predict the Red Sox won't sign anyone attached to a Qualifying Offer... including their own free agents. Bloom gave one up to sign Story, and he'll obviously want it back, somehow.

 

Maybe it depends on where the Sox wind up picking in the draft; does anyone know when the new lottery order gets set -- as in, months before or the day of the draft?

 

 

I still think they sign Correa if they sign any shortstop. No QO…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They could hypothetically sign Senga/Correa/Taillon/Conforto plus some bullpen help without losing one pick and actually net two. That’s not a bad off-season.

 

Edit: They could do this and stay under the luxury tax while extending Devers. They could does not equate to they willl. But there’s a lot of talent without draft pick compensation this off season.

 

Right -- I'm good with most of those guys, but prefer Bogey and Eovaldi to Correa and Taillon.

 

Not that I wouldn't welcome Correa, who's no villain to me. Though as I've said before, a Carlos signing -- for more than what X will get -- could rule out Raffy, as well. Correa could also be more amenable to shifting positions down the road, as he moved to third when he played for Cora in Puerto Rico.

[notin]

Right -- I'm good with most of those guys, but prefer Bogey and Eovaldi to Correa and Taillon.

 

Not that I wouldn't welcome Correa, who's no villain to me. Though as I've said before, a Carlos signing -- for more than what X will get -- could rule out Raffy, as well. Correa could also be more amenable to shifting positions down the road, as he moved to third when he played for Cora in Puerto Rico.

 

I remember one off season not too long ago when you were all about the Sox getting Correa.

 

To me, Correa is the better player more likely to live up to the contract. But Bogaerts is our guy.

 

I’m not sure we get either, but I won’t be upset with either one, depending on the terms (years)…

[Hugh2]

Right -- I'm good with most of those guys, but prefer Bogey and Eovaldi to Correa and Taillon.

 

Not that I wouldn't welcome Correa, who's no villain to me. Though as I've said before, a Carlos signing -- for more than what X will get -- could rule out Raffy, as well. Correa could also be more amenable to shifting positions down the road, as he moved to third when he played for Cora in Puerto Rico.

 

Nah, Correa doesn’t stop that, Correa isn’t going to get more than maybe 5-7 more than Bogey I’m AAV, the Sox could always have the Devers extension kick in next year saving 8-11 million in AAV this year and reset. By the time they’d need to reset again you’d have more money off the books including Sales contract.

 

It’s ok to not want Correa, but I don’t think he stops you from resigning Devers by any means.

[moonslav59]

The thing is Turner and Swanson both have very weak arms. Meaning once they lose a step they will become negative at SS fast and where they can move to will be limited. I think it’s Bogaerts/Correa or bust.

 

I’d also add Starting pitching to the free agent class. There’s a ton of mid rotation depth and we could use a couple starters.

 

Good points, as always.

[moonslav59]

Right -- I'm good with most of those guys, but prefer Bogey and Eovaldi to Correa and Taillon.

 

Not that I wouldn't welcome Correa, who's no villain to me. Though as I've said before, a Carlos signing -- for more than what X will get -- could rule out Raffy, as well. Correa could also be more amenable to shifting positions down the road, as he moved to third when he played for Cora in Puerto Rico.

 

It's really Correa & Taillon plus 2 comp picks vs Bogey & Nate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I remember one off season not too long ago when you were all about the Sox getting Correa.

 

To me, Correa is the better player more likely to live up to the contract. But Bogaerts is our guy.

 

I’m not sure we get either, but I won’t be upset with either one, depending on the terms (years)…

 

Of the Big Five SS that were becoming free agents in '21, Correa is definitely the guy I thought was the best player and best fit in Fenway, especially under Cora. He still might be, but I didn't want him at the expense of Bogaerts -- back then I was still hoping X could move to second or third or Raffy to 1B or DH.

 

Correa's non-QO is certainly a factor this winter, and I'll be glad to welcome him to Boston longterm... but I'm sticking with my gut that if Bogey bolts, we'll see a placeholder at short, instead.

[Old Red]

Of the Big Five SS that were becoming free agents in '21, Correa is definitely the guy I thought was the best player and best fit in Fenway, especially under Cora. He still might be, but I didn't want him at the expense of Bogaerts -- back then I was still hoping X could move to second or third or Raffy to 1B or DH.

 

Correa's non-QO is certainly a factor this winter, and I'll be glad to welcome him to Boston longterm... but I'm sticking with my gut that if Bogey bolts, we'll see a placeholder at short, instead.

 

I agree, and while most on here are assuming if Bogey is not resigned they will grab one of the other high priced SS, and I’m not thinking that way. I can’t see the Red Sox spending more money on a SS then they are willing to go for Bogey, and that includes Correa.

[moonslav59]

I agree, and while most on here are assuming if Bogey is not resigned they will grab one of the other high priced SS, and I’m not thinking that way. I can’t see the Red Sox spending more money on a SS then they are willing to go for Bogey, and that includes Correa.

 

Swanson might be less, but we may just decide to spend elsewhere and wait for Mayer. Maybe find a 1-2 year bridge SS.

[harmony]

I hope I'm wrong but predict the Red Sox won't sign anyone attached to a Qualifying Offer... including their own free agents. Bloom gave one up to sign Story, and he'll obviously want it back, somehow.

 

Maybe it depends on where the Sox wind up picking in the draft; does anyone know when the new lottery order gets set -- as in, months before or the day of the draft?

The first-ever MLB Draft lottery will take place on Tuesday, December 6, at the Winter Meetings in San Diego.

 

2023 MLB Draft order

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The order for the first 18 picks in the 2023 MLB Draft won't be determined until the first-ever Draft lottery, which will take place on Tuesday, December 6, at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. But the rest of the first round has fallen into place. Teams picked in reverse

 

FWIW the Seattle Mariners are likely to have the No. 22 and No. 29 picks, the only franchise with two selections in the Top 30. Under the new CBA, Seattle received a bonus draft pick at the end of the first round when Julio Rodriguez was named AL Rookie of the Year after being rostered since Opening Day.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox). Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter. Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts

[Nick]

I'm wondering, if we end up going for a guy like Verlander, so we don't hamper longer term budget issues. Moon

 

I've always advocated for adding starting pitching at the top, and not the bottom. The goal not only is to make the playoffs but enhance the team's chances via strong starting pitching. Hitters are unpredictable in a short series. Look at Aaron Judge this year and Mookie couple of years ago (?)

 

It's silly to extend Xander's contract for 6-7 years when the team wants to build the future around Devers. We have many considered to be the top pick in Mayer ready to move in as early as 2024.

 

We can live with a 3 year deal. We do have to role the dice once again on Chris Sale. Verlander and healthy Sale for next couple of years would go long way in getting us into the playoffs.

 

Also make a strong run at the Japanese free agent pitcher. $15M would do it.

 

Do it Bloom.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Nick