A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Wasn't Plawecki a decent CERA guy?

 

Fake stat.

[moonslav59]

What deals?

 

Like the Vaz signing, this winter.

 

You don't like it, but you'll blame Bloom for letting Vaz go.

 

Like the Bogey deal, but you blame Bloom for not signing him for less, earlier.

 

Nee more?

[moonslav59]

Wasn't Plawecki a decent CERA guy?

 

I adressed that comment to a non-believer.

[Old Red]

Like the Vaz signing, this winter.

 

You don't like it, but you'll blame Bloom for letting Vaz go.

 

Like the Bogey deal, but you blame Bloom for not signing him for less, earlier.

 

Nee more?

I wasn’t big on signing Vaz to another contract, and wouldn’t have done anything like he got for the Twins, so I don’t blame Bloom for Vaz leaving. Bogey is a whole other story, and that was a botch as botch can be" Not offering a legit offer last offseason was incompetence to me, and I stand by that. Even a 6/150 would have been a start. An extra $30M was a finish.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think Boras is right. The Sox weren't really committed to keeping Bogey, largely because their focus was retaining Devers. And I understand that.

[Old Red]

Personally I think Boras is right. The Sox weren't really committed to keeping Bogey, largely because their focus was retaining Devers. And I understand that.

 

I understand that, but why do the horse, and pony show by Kennedy, and Bloom? It didn’t fool very many. The Red Sox could have kept both if they wanted too. I think Boris also was talking about this offseason, and not last offseason.

[mvp 78]

I understand that, but why do the horse, and pony show by Kennedy, and Bloom? It didn’t fool very many. The Red Sox could have kept both if they wanted too. I think Boris also was talking about this offseason, and not last offseason.

 

The horse and pony show seems driven by Kennedy. Bloom feels much more awkward with it. (“I just want to be clear: We’re going to do this. It’s going to be awesome. And we are going to get there.”) I think they are just trying to run PR, but doing a piss poor job at it. I think Kennedy is a guy who failed upwards. Sometimes it's better to say nothing at all than look like an angry used car salesman like Kennedy.

[Old Red]

The horse and pony show seems driven by Kennedy. Bloom feels much more awkward with it. (“I just want to be clear: We’re going to do this. It’s going to be awesome. And we are going to get there.”) I think they are just trying to run PR, but doing a piss poor job at it. I think Kennedy is a guy who failed upwards. Sometimes it's better to say nothing at all than look like an angry used car salesman like Kennedy.

Kennedy is like the greeter at WallMart.

[moonslav59]

I wasn’t big on signing Vaz to another contract, and wouldn’t have done anything like he got for the Twins, so I don’t blame Bloom for Vaz leaving. Bogey is a whole other story, and that was a botch as botch can be" Not offering a legit offer last offseason was incompetence to me, and I stand by that. Even a 6/150 would have been a start. An extra $30M was a finish.

 

I wish we had extended Bogey, earlier, but not knowing what it would have taken makes it hard for me to say it was a mistake.

 

I agree, the $30M addition to the existing deal was a slap in the face, but we don't know $160M/6 would have gotten a deal done a year or two ago. We don't know if $170 or $180M would have gotten him to sign. ZIt seems like he would have, but it's all speculation.

 

I wish we kept Bogey, too, but at what cost?

 

I am pretty certain he'd have earned $160M/6 and even $180M/6, but even that is speculation.

 

On Vaz, I thought you disliked trading him away, last summer.

[moonslav59]

Kennedy is like the greeter at WallMart.

 

Love it. Perfect analogy.

[mvp 78]

Kennedy is like the greeter at WallMart.

 

I've never felt the urge to slap anyone at Walmart.

[Tedballgame]

Is this a fair assessment to you?

 

The bad decisions between 2021 and 2022:

Renfroe for JBJ

Paxton signing

Diekman signing

Spent money on Story not the pen and 1B bench

Failed to trade for 1B or RF between May and July.

 

The so-so/decent to good moves:

Strahm signing

Hill signing

Wacha signing

Refsnyder signing

Schreiber signing (from '21 move)

Diekman for McGuire trade

 

It's not about the number of good vs bad, right? I agree the JBJ trade outweighs 2-3 good moves, but do you view the overall moves made by Bloom after 2021 as a net minus?

 

How about the bad moves during the 2022 season:

 

1. Failing to trade Bogey at the deadline.

2. Failing to trade Wacha at the deadline.

3. Failing to trade JDJ at the deadline.

4. Failing to trade Eovaldi at the deadline.

5. Failing to trade Hill and Strahm at the deadline.

[moonslav59]

How about the bad moves during the 2022 season:

 

1. Failing to trade Bogey at the deadline.

2. Failing to trade Wacha at the deadline.

3. Failing to trade JDJ at the deadline.

4. Failing to trade Eovaldi at the deadline.

5. Failing to trade Hill and Strahm at the deadline.

 

I was for a massive fire sale. I know Red was not, so I did not mention it.

 

I'm not sure if Bloom was on board with a fire sale or not.

[mvp 78]

How about the bad moves during the 2022 season:

 

1. Failing to trade Bogey at the deadline.

2. Failing to trade Wacha at the deadline.

3. Failing to trade JDJ at the deadline.

4. Failing to trade Eovaldi at the deadline.

5. Failing to trade Hill and Strahm at the deadline.

 

Wacha and Hill were in various stages of being injured at the time.

 

Eovaldi's prior 3 starts:

13 INN

16 ER

8 K

4 BB

23 H

11.08 ERA

 

They had already told Xander they weren't going to trade him.

 

Yes, JD should have been traded for a low A prospect.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is another look that should factor in mushballs: OPS+

Listed in order of leading in PAs in 2021

Red+ Improved

 

'21 Player '22

134 Devers 141

128 JD M 117

107 Dugo 102

129 Bogey 131

 

108 Kike 75

114 Renfroe> 60 JBJ

77 Vaz 109

107 Dalbec 80

53 Marwin> 102 Story

103 Arroyo 103

98 Plawecki 61

155 Schwarber > 86 Pham

 

 

Not sure OPS totally reflects the effects of the dead balls not reaching the seats. Those of us who watched all the games know Bogey wasn't better in '22. The main complaint was his BA with 2 outs, runners in scoring position: '21 - .280; '22 - .183. But in a season when his overall batting average went up, the homers -- going from 23 to 15 -- are maybe the best gauge of dead ball traveling.

 

Many fans also said JD looked cooked, but he still hit 43 doubles -- one more than '21 when he led the league. Also, his K rate was right around his career average. The big difference again was HRs -- going from 28 to only 16 (including 2 the last day). Industry observers noted that his long drives to right center didn't have the usual carry. Wonder how many of those were caught at the warning track, instead of going another 5-10 feet -- that will certainly affect batting averages, on base, and slugging percentages.

[moonslav59]

Not sure OPS totally reflects the effects of the dead balls not reaching the seats. Those of us who watched all the games know Bogey wasn't better in '22. The main complaint was his BA with 2 outs, runners in scoring position: '21 - .280; '22 - .183. But in a season when his overall batting average went up, the homers -- going from 23 to 15 -- are maybe the best gauge of dead ball traveling.

 

Many fans also said JD looked cooked, but he still hit 43 doubles -- one more than '21 when he led the league. Also, his K rate was right around his career average. The big difference again was HRs -- going from 28 to only 16 (including 2 the last day). Industry observers noted that his long drives to right center didn't have the usual carry. Wonder how many of those were caught at the warning track, instead of going another 5-10 feet -- that will certainly affect batting averages, on base, and slugging percentages.

 

OPS+ adjusts to the new norm, so it would reflect the drop off in offense by the whole league from 2021 to 2022.

 

The same OPS would be a higher OPS+ in 2022.

[moonslav59]

Not sure OPS totally reflects the effects of the dead balls not reaching the seats. Those of us who watched all the games know Bogey wasn't better in '22. The main complaint was his BA with 2 outs, runners in scoring position: '21 - .280; '22 - .183. But in a season when his overall batting average went up, the homers -- going from 23 to 15 -- are maybe the best gauge of dead ball traveling.

 

Many fans also said JD looked cooked, but he still hit 43 doubles -- one more than '21 when he led the league. Also, his K rate was right around his career average. The big difference again was HRs -- going from 28 to only 16 (including 2 the last day). Industry observers noted that his long drives to right center didn't have the usual carry. Wonder how many of those were caught at the warning track, instead of going another 5-10 feet -- that will certainly affect batting averages, on base, and slugging percentages.

 

JD did look "cooked" in the second half of 2022:

 

.234/.299/.401/.400 last 69 games

18 2B+3B

8 HRs

29 RBI

 

.312/.379/.493/.872 first 70 games

26 2B+3B

8 HR

33 RBI

 

Compare these numbers to Turner:

 

.220/.293/.356/.649 first half (20 2B and 4 HRs w 35 RBI)

.336/.406/.522/.928 2nd half (16 2B and 9 HRs w 46 RBI)

[moonslav59]

Wacha and Hill were in various stages of being injured at the time.

 

Eovaldi's prior 3 starts:

13 INN

16 ER

8 K

4 BB

23 H

11.08 ERA

 

They had already told Xander they weren't going to trade him.

 

Yes, JD should have been traded for a low A prospect.

 

We probably could have still gotten something useful for Hill, Wacha and Nate. Strahm, too.

 

Not trading JD to get under the tax line was the obvious mistake, and not just in hindsight.

 

Bogey had a no-trade clause, and it seemed like we really did want him back, at that time, but in hindsight, we now wonder.

Edited January 20, 2023 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

If we are going to critisize not trading guys in hindsight, we shouldn't be critical when guys are traded mid season from a team thats' fighting for .500

 

Heres a reason to be optimistic on Duvall, who at times had been a pretty darn good player. His value, and offense took a big hit the last two years as his offense was ZAPPED by a wrist injury. We all know how a wrist injury can affect you long-term. David Ortiz came back from one and had a whole sub .800 OPS season and looked like he was falling off a cliff then proceeded to have 7 great seasons afterward. Now I'm by not saying he's going to do that but a full season recovered from a wrist injury should yield much better offensive production. Even last year, as the year went on and he was further removed from his inury his offensive gradually went up.

 

.565

.494

.864

.976

 

If he can provide average to better defense in the outfield with an ops north of .800 and Kike can stay healthy at 2B. Then Duval/Kike might give you just as much value as Kike/Story. We still need a short stop (or a 2nB)

[moonslav59]

A look at Bobby Dalbec:

 

Is he a player we should totally write-off?

 

Maybe give one more chance? (If yes, when and where?)

 

.959 first 92 PAs of career (2020)

.718 first 57 PAs of 2021

.382 next 51 PAs ('21)

.862 next 102 PAs ('21)

.556 next 104 PAs ('21)

1.114 last 139 PAs of 2021

.000 in 12 PAs of 2021 playoffs

.440 first 89 PAs of '22

.824 next 83 PAs of '22

.556 next 49 PAs '22

.722 last 132 of '22

 

Career: .754 in 898 PAs.

Career Line per 650 PAs:

.232 33 95

[mvp 78]

If we are going to critisize not trading guys in hindsight, we shouldn't be critical when guys are traded mid season from a team thats' fighting for .500

 

It's not hindsight when it was an active conversation going into the 2022 season.

[moonslav59]

If how players ended the previous season have anything to do with carrying over to the next year...

 

1.069 Casas in last 51 PAs (.441 in first 44 PAs)

.940 Turner in last 289 PAs

.877 McGuire in last 108 PAs

.847 Verdugo in last 229 PAs (.784 in last 481 PAs)

.806 Arroyo in last 173 PAs

.722 Dalbec in last 132 PAs (.798 in last 30 PAs)

.691 Kike in last 277 PAs (.491 in first 125 PAs)

 

Departing players:

.780 Bogey last 361 PAs

.672 JD in last 316 PAs (.693 in last 423 PAs)

.672 Pham in 235 PAs w BOS

.631 Hosmer in 50 PAs w BOS

.585 Vaz in last 108 PAs (w HOU)

.497 Cordero last 136 PAs

 

Devers is the only returning player who dropped off at the end of 2022.

[mvp 78]

Sorry to ruin your weekend, moon.

 

@JeffPassan

Full trade, per ESPN sources:

 

Marlins receive: 2B Luis Arráez

 

Twins receive: RHP Pablo López, SS Jose Salas, OF Byron Chourio

[mvp 78]

Per BTV:

 

Not accepted

Oops! At least one team in this trade is not giving up as much value as they should be. Try balancing it out with either more players or cash.

 

Twins received 59.4

Marlins received 26.6

 

???

[moonslav59]

Per BTV:

 

Not accepted

Oops! At least one team in this trade is not giving up as much value as they should be. Try balancing it out with either more players or cash.

 

Twins received 59.4

Marlins received 26.6

 

???

 

Looks like the Twins got a lot, or BTV is really messed up on the value of Arraez.

[moonslav59]

How about Houck, Duran and Yorke for Ober and Kepler?

 

Or, Houck, Dugo & Murphy for the same two?

Edited January 20, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

Looks like the Twins got a lot, or BTV is really messed up on the value of Arraez.

 

Or the Marlins FO just values him differently.

 

More important, with the Marlins getting yet another middle infielder, does this put Joey Wendle back in play for Boston?

[notin]

A look at Bobby Dalbec:

 

Is he a player we should totally write-off?

 

Maybe give one more chance? (If yes, when and where?)

 

.959 first 92 PAs of career (2020)

.718 first 57 PAs of 2021

.382 next 51 PAs ('21)

.862 next 102 PAs ('21)

.556 next 104 PAs ('21)

1.114 last 139 PAs of 2021

.000 in 12 PAs of 2021 playoffs

.440 first 89 PAs of '22

.824 next 83 PAs of '22

.556 next 49 PAs '22

.722 last 132 of '22

 

Career: .754 in 898 PAs.

Career Line per 650 PAs:

.232 33 95

 

He doesn't hit much, but I would like to try him as corner OF. I think he has the footspeed and arm strength for the positions, but it's a question of whether or not he can actually catch a flyball thats not hit right to him...

[moonslav59]

He doesn't hit much, but I would like to try him as corner OF. I think he has the footspeed and arm strength for the positions, but it's a question of whether or not he can actually catch a flyball thats not hit right to him...

 

If he can keep hitting .,754 with 33 HRs and 95 RBI per 650, he could stick as an Of'er, assuming he can catch fly balls.

 

Big ifs, though.

[oldtimer]

A look at Bobby Dalbec:

 

Is he a player we should totally write-off?

 

Maybe give one more chance? (If yes, when and where?)

 

.959 first 92 PAs of career (2020)

.718 first 57 PAs of 2021

.382 next 51 PAs ('21)

.862 next 102 PAs ('21)

.556 next 104 PAs ('21)

1.114 last 139 PAs of 2021

.000 in 12 PAs of 2021 playoffs

.440 first 89 PAs of '22

.824 next 83 PAs of '22

.556 next 49 PAs '22

.722 last 132 of '22

 

Career: .754 in 898 PAs.

Career Line per 650 PAs:

.232 33 95

 

I'm for cutting ties. He looked helpless at the plate and only marginal defensively at first base. Time to move on.