A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

I don’t deal Casas for Lopez. Lopez is a fine back end of the rotation guy, but he’s not a front liner. And Casas has the upside of a middle of the order bat at a position of need. I’d only deal him for a front line guy like Alcantara. Makes little sense with the Sox at this stage to be looking at these guys if the cost is Casas or Mayer

 

Yup

[moonslav59]

Yup

 

He's not a back end rotation guy, but no way Casas for him.

 

Since 2020, Lopez has an 87 ERA- (Nate is 86). His FIP is 3.48 and his xFIP- is 85. (Buehler, Gallen, Gray & Stroman are at 86, Morton is at 84 and Alcantara 83.)

 

[Maxbialystock]

Could someone please enlighten me on the most likely lineup and rotation this season? I know only about the departure of Bogey, the big contract for Raffy, and the acquisition of the Japanese outfielder.

[moonslav59]

Could someone please enlighten me on the most likely lineup and rotation this season? I know only about the departure of Bogey, the big contract for Raffy, and the acquisition of the Japanese outfielder.

 

My guess:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Kike CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B

9. L McGuire C

Bench: Wong ©, Dalbec (1B/3B/DH), Refsnyder (RF), Addition (SS) or EValdez/JDuran

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Kluber

SP3 Whitlock

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Paxton

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Joely R

RP7 Mills

RP8 Brasier/Taylor/Kelly/German/Crawford...

Edited January 9, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Mazz announced that he will not be back in the booth doing Sox games this year!

 

Things are looking up in ‘23!

[Old Red]

Mazz announced that he will not be back in the booth doing Sox games this year!

 

Things are looking up in ‘23!

 

I wasn’t impressed with any of them including Millar, and Youk, and OB can wear on you too.

[Hugh2]

My guess:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Kike CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B

9. L McGuire C

Bench: Wong ©, Dalbec (1B/3B/DH), Refsnyder (RF), Addition (SS) or EValdez/JDuran

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Kluber

SP3 Whitlock

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Paxton

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Joely R

RP7 Mills

RP8 Brasier/Taylor/Kelly/German/Crawford...

 

I still think they go out and get a SS, by trade or they just sign Andrus.

[moonslav59]

I still think they go out and get a SS, by trade or they just sign Andrus.

 

There are too many 1 year SSs on the trading block for us not to grab one. I'd prefer M Rojas from the Marlins, because I don't think he'd cot much. I'd give up Duran for him, and I think they want an OF'er. I know it's 5 years for one, but Rafaela should be ready, soon.

 

Our bench would be Wong, Arroyo, Refsnyder and Dalbec or EValdez.

 

I could see us trading Dalbec, too. Maybe Dalbec and Seabold for Rojas? Or, Dalbec for Michael A Taylor, and we'd have a deeper OF bench and Arroyo as IF depth..

[moonslav59]

SS Targets:

 

FA: Andrus, Iggy

 

Trade:

A Rosario, M Rojas, I Kiner-Falefa, B Crawford, N Ahmed (all 1 year left)

W Adames (2 years)

J Mateo (3 years)

 

Forget acquiring a 2Bman. Let's get a SS bridge to Mayer.

 

[harmony]

He's not a back end rotation guy, but no way Casas for him.

 

Since 2020, Lopez has an 87 ERA- (Nate is 86). His FIP is 3.48 and his xFIP- is 85. (Buehler, Gallen, Gray & Stroman are at 86, Morton is at 84 and Alcantara 83.)

 

Locked On Red Sox on Pablo Lopez:

 

[moonslav59]

Locked On Red Sox on Pablo Lopez:

 

 

If we could extend him at a reasonable rate, I'd consider giving up his value in return, but otherwise, no.

 

I'd consider trading Verdugo, Duran and Dalbec for Lopez, Rojas and Garcia, but only if we can stay under the tax line.

[notin]

The Marlins signed Cueto.

 

Noteworthy because no team needed MLB pitchers less than the Marlins…

[moonslav59]

The Marlins signed Cueto.

 

Noteworthy because no team needed MLB pitchers less than the Marlins…

 

They must know they will trade 1-2 of their starting pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

The Marlins signed Cueto.

 

Noteworthy because no team needed MLB pitchers less than the Marlins…

 

A little surprising none of the bigger players were in on Cueto at this pricing ($8.5 mill). He posted solid numbers last year.

 

(Please try to refrain from any injury jokes.)

[Bellhorn04]

If we could extend him at a reasonable rate, I'd consider giving up his value in return, but otherwise, no.

 

I'd consider trading Verdugo, Duran and Dalbec for Lopez, Rojas and Garcia, but only if we can stay under the tax line.

 

Are Verdugo, Duran and Dalbec really going to do it for the Marlins?

[Hugh2]

I don’t deal Casas for Lopez. Lopez is a fine back end of the rotation guy, but he’s not a front liner. And Casas has the upside of a middle of the order bat at a position of need. I’d only deal him for a front line guy like Alcantara. Makes little sense with the Sox at this stage to be looking at these guys if the cost is Casas or Mayer

 

I don't think Lopez is a true TOTRS by any means but that doesn't mean he's a back end either. He's a solid #2 pitcher on most teams, and he would have been the ACE of this staff last year.

[notin]

I don't think Lopez is a true TOTRS by any means but that doesn't mean he's a back end either. He's a solid #2 pitcher on most teams, and he would have been the ACE of this staff last year.

 

Not to mention, he turns 27 in March. Not like he’s on the downside of his career…

[notin]

Are Verdugo, Duran and Dalbec really going to do it for the Marlins?

 

IMO no.

 

Verdugo and Duran’s footspeed are the only tradable commodities there. I don’t think that combo gets you the lesser Marlins’ pitchers, let alone Lopez.

 

If the Sox want to hold Casas - and they should for two years of Lopez - the bidding has to begin with Ceddane Rafaela and progress from there…

[moonslav59]

Are Verdugo, Duran and Dalbec really going to do it for the Marlins?

 

No, that's a pipedream, unless they value Duran like BTV does. I do think they'd like Verdugo over Garcia and his contract. Depends what they think they could do with the money saved.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think Lopez is a true TOTRS by any means but that doesn't mean he's a back end either. He's a solid #2 pitcher on most teams, and he would have been the ACE of this staff last year.

 

Good point. Lopez would be a good addition to an established rotation on a club pushing to go deeper into the postseason. But a case can be made that it's not worth trading future core Red Sox like Casas for even two of Miami's starters not named Alcantara.

 

After all, the Marlins' under-30 rotation started for a team that lost 93 games in '22, and 95 in '21. And Miami also has two young position players better than anyone under-25 in Boston right now. Arguably...

[moonslav59]

IMO no.

 

Verdugo and Duran’s footspeed are the only tradable commodities there. I don’t think that combo gets you the lesser Marlins’ pitchers, let alone Lopez.

 

If the Sox want to hold Casas - and they should for two years of Lopez - the bidding has to begin with Ceddane Rafaela and progress from there…

 

Agreed, unless they want to shed A Garcia's contract, any deal would have to start with Rafaela or Bleis, and I'm holding onto Bleis.

[notin]

Agreed, unless they want to shed A Garcia's contract, any deal would have to start with Rafaela or Bleis, and I'm holding onto Bleis.

 

So far there’s no indication the Marlins are looking to dump Garcia or Soler. The only rumors about what they want is someone to bolster their lackluster offense.

 

If that’s true, Casas makes sense for them, as he’s a likely upgrade over the NPCs they had at 1b last year. It also could mean they have little to no interest in Rafaela, as his offense is still in question. And probably very little in Bleis, who’s just too far away to help.

 

It’s tough to find a good obvious match beyond Casas, unless they simply gamble that Rafaela can hit but at least know he can upgrade their CF position.

[Hugh2]

Good point. Lopez would be a good addition to an established rotation on a club pushing to go deeper into the postseason. But a case can be made that it's not worth trading future core Red Sox like Casas for even two of Miami's starters not named Alcantara.

 

After all, the Marlins' under-30 rotation started for a team that lost 93 games in '22, and 95 in '21. And Miami also has two young position players better than anyone under-25 in Boston right now. Arguably...

 

Agreed.

 

Lopez is the guy you trade for when you team looks like it does in 2016/2017.

[moonslav59]

So, cots has us with about $15M to spend and still be under the tax line. That is certainly enough to sign Andrus, but my guess is he wants too many years, and we are looking for a 1 year bridge to Mayer.

[moonslav59]

So far there’s no indication the Marlins are looking to dump Garcia or Soler. The only rumors about what they want is someone to bolster their lackluster offense.

 

If that’s true, Casas makes sense for them, as he’s a likely upgrade over the NPCs they had at 1b last year. It also could mean they have little to no interest in Rafaela, as his offense is still in question. And probably very little in Bleis, who’s just too far away to help.

 

It’s tough to find a good obvious match beyond Casas, unless they simply gamble that Rafaela can hit but at least know he can upgrade their CF position.

 

I've heard nothing about them looking to dump salaries, either, but they may be able to be talked into it. They probably don't view Dugo as an O upgrade player- not Duran.

 

I do think they might take Duran for Rojas.

 

I'm just so keyed into us trying to get a young SP'er, that I'm trying to force square pegs in round holes.

[Hugh2]

So, cots has us with about $15M to spend and still be under the tax line. That is certainly enough to sign Andrus, but my guess is he wants too many years, and we are looking for a 1 year bridge to Mayer.

 

I wouldn't mind 2 years for Andrus, especially if we want to stay under the cap. It would be nice to have a few million to play with to possibly take on Salary at the deadline in a trade. I'm not sure how that happens unless you're trading for a cost-controlled SS.

 

They might be able to structure an Andrus contract with a lower AAV that gives him a buyout if he wants to hit FA again next year. I think they end up trading for a guy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So far there’s no indication the Marlins are looking to dump Garcia or Soler. The only rumors about what they want is someone to bolster their lackluster offense.

 

If that’s true, Casas makes sense for them, as he’s a likely upgrade over the NPCs they had at 1b last year. It also could mean they have little to no interest in Rafaela, as his offense is still in question. And probably very little in Bleis, who’s just too far away to help.

 

It’s tough to find a good obvious match beyond Casas, unless they simply gamble that Rafaela can hit but at least know he can upgrade their CF position.

 

It would seem unlikely that Rafaela, 22, would be a huge upgrade over Jesus Sanchez, 25, who played half Miami's games in CF in '22 and has already shown extra-base pop in the big leagues the past two years (162-gm avg of 25 HRs). Sanchez did it in the minors, too, with a 1.000+ OPS in AAA, which Ceddanne hasn't even reached yet...

 

I don't doubt Rafaela's D, since I watched him from the stands last summer. But like you said, the Marlins are looking for MLB offense this year. Verdugo and Dalbec would seem most expendable...

 

But they're definitely preparing to deal a young arm, since they just sign Cueto. Scuggs on MLB.com says clubs are asking more about Cabrera over Lopez, coveting the big arm.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't mind 2 years for Andrus, especially if we want to stay under the cap. It would be nice to have a few million to play with to possibly take on Salary at the deadline in a trade. I'm not sure how that happens unless you're trading for a cost-controlled SS.

 

They might be able to structure an Andrus contract with a lower AAV that gives him a buyout if he wants to hit FA again next year. I think they end up trading for a guy.

 

We could trade for M Rojas, who has 1 year at $5M. I doubt he'd cost a lot in return: maybe Duran or something like Dalbec and Murphy.

 

There are a few other 1 year SSs out there.

[moonslav59]

It would seem unlikely that Rafaela, 22, would be a huge upgrade over Jesus Sanchez, 25, who played half Miami's games in CF in '22 and has already shown extra-base pop in the big leagues the past two years (162-gm avg of 25 HRs). Sanchez did it in the minors, too, with a 1.000+ OPS in AAA, which Ceddanne hasn't even reached yet...

 

I don't doubt Rafaela's D, since I watched him from the stands last summer. But like you said, the Marlins are looking for MLB offense this year. Verdugo and Dalbec would seem most expendable...

 

But they're definitely preparing to deal a young arm, since they just sign Cueto. Scuggs on MLB.com says clubs are asking more about Cabrera over Lopez, coveting the big arm.

 

They could probably find a place for Rafaela and Sanchez, but they'd need to be convinced Rafaela's offense is for real. I doubt anyone is convinced of that.

[Bellhorn04]

So, cots has us with about $15M to spend and still be under the tax line. That is certainly enough to sign Andrus, but my guess is he wants too many years, and we are looking for a 1 year bridge to Mayer.

 

The Cots number assumes that Devers's 2023 AAV is 30.1 million. We'll have to wait to find out if that's correct, or if it's 17.5 million. Pretty important difference.