A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Generic maybe-living-in-the-past-intensity reason to be skeptical about Paxton: despite his stats, Yankee fans disliked him; how would that translate in Boston?

 

AL East and Tampa connections, at least, seem to be a factor with Bloom -- he likes recruiting ex-Rays for the rotation: Wacha in '22, Kluber in '23. He's even still recruiting pitchers for the Rays... and we can't wait for Raffy to spin Eflin's head around like the Exorcist for the next three years.

 

 

You defer to Yankee fans far too often. I’d say they were dead wrong about Ottavino.

 

In fact, I believe they also don’t like IKF, which means he’s gotta be awesome. He should be about Boston’s new shortstop…

[Bobe2]

Absolutely. Again, why is he going over Ort, who would clear waivers?

 

I would guess Bloom values him differently than you do

[notin]

I would guess Bloom values him differently than you do

 

If he values Ort at all, it’s differently than I do. I think Ort is far, far likelier to clear waivers here

[Bobe2]

If he values Ort at all, it’s differently than I do. I think Ort is far, far likelier to clear waivers here

 

I agree with that, three years of moves like that and non moves that should have been made have Blooms stamp all over them, it’s become almost a weekly occurrence and it’s gotten to the point that I just shake my head and laugh a little

[moonslav59]

I agree with that, three years of moves like that and non moves that should have been made have Blooms stamp all over them, it’s become almost a weekly occurrence and it’s gotten to the point that I just shake my head and laugh a little

 

Too much importance is being placed on roster slots 39 and 40.

[notin]

Too much importance is being placed on roster slots 39 and 40.

 

I just don’t like Ort…

[notin]

Soxprospects.com seems to just be anticipating a shortstop. Some point out it could also be a 2b.

 

However I don’t like their projected bullpen. Kutter Crawford? With Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Reyes Moronta, and Luke Weaver all still looking for work. Go get one or two.

[moonslav59]

I just don’t like Ort…

 

Not much different than my dislike for DHern and others for Brasier.

 

All 3 might be gone by the time we add Kluber and a SS.

 

We may just be haggling over the order in which all 3 will be DFA'd.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com seems to just be anticipating a shortstop. Some point out it could also be a 2b.

 

However I don’t like their projected bullpen. Kutter Crawford? With Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Reyes Moronta, and Luke Weaver all still looking for work. Go get one or two.

 

Kelly, German, Mata, Walter or even Taylor may beat Crawford for that last slot.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com seems to just be anticipating a shortstop. Some point out it could also be a 2b.

 

However I don’t like their projected bullpen. Kutter Crawford? With Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Reyes Moronta, and Luke Weaver all still looking for work. Go get one or two.

 

I think we need a SS more than a RP'er. I certainly prefer M Rojas over Wendle.

 

I'd rather get a solid SP'er than a RP'er.

[moonslav59]

R.I.P. Bill Campbell

[moonslav59]

Details on the Turner deal...

 

$8.3M year one with $1M incentives that max out at 560 PAs.

 

Year two:

$13.4M player option

or

$6.7M buyout by club

 

The buyout makes it, essentially a $15M/1 year deal or $21.7M/2 deal.

 

AAV $10.85M

[oldtimer]

The pundits are putting out lots of talk about trading away Casas to obtain a SS or starting pitcher. Both at higher cost. I for one can't see why we would want to trade away a young and talented player who plays a position of need for the Sox for any player.

[Hugh2]

I for one can’t believe the Sox are shopping Casas, rather teams may be requesting him. That doesn’t mean the Sox would t move him in the right deal but if he was on the mock why DFA Hosmer? Is Dalbec the starting 1B? Or is it going to be Turner?

 

I think the Sox try to get a deal done for a SS that does not involve Casas.

[Bellhorn04]

The pundits are putting out lots of talk about trading away Casas to obtain a SS or starting pitcher. Both at higher cost. I for one can't see why we would want to trade away a young and talented player who plays a position of need for the Sox for any player.

 

It's all just rumors, and from what I've read it was the Marlins who asked for Casas in a trade for a pitcher.

 

I'll be shocked if Bloom trades Casas.

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt we trade Casas, and I don't want to trade him, but the theory on acquiring a solid SP'er with 3+ years of control (not Pablo Lopez with 2) makes some sense.

 

The downgrade from Casas to Turner/Dalbec and maybe eventually Jordan/Kavadas might be less than the upgrade at SP'er. In theory, if you gain more at the other position than you lose at 1B, it's worth consideration. Years of team control and contractual considerations also play into the equation, as well as how highly we value Casas vs how highly the other GM values him.

 

In this case, it's not just as simple as valuing 1B vs SP'er. If Turner plays 1B, who DHs? If Yoshida moves to DH (maybe a good thing), we'd need an OF'er or two...most likely a RF'er.

 

It's never a simple balance.

[Larry Cook]

It's all just rumors, and from what I've read it was the Marlins who asked for Casas in a trade for a pitcher.

 

I'll be shocked if Bloom trades Casas.

 

I think the marlins need major league players and cassas would fill a secondary need for them.

[moonslav59]

I think the marlins need major league players and cassas would fill a secondary need for them.

 

Unlike most teams, the Marlins have an abundance of young starting pitchers with 2-6 years of team control, but they lack great everyday players.

 

We seem to be the opposite, so I can see why the fit looks good, on paper.

 

For a while, I really wanted Lopez, but the 2 years vs 4, 5 or 6 for their other starters makes me shy away from giving up 5-6 years of a really good prospect for him.

 

I've made dozens of trade suggestions on BTV, involving the Marlins. Many include their SS, M Rojas, who has one year of control. Others involve us taking on RF'er A Garcia's bloated contract, so we can get a SP'er without giving up Casas, Mayer, Bello or Bleis- hopefully not even Rafaela, but they would want something highly regarded.

 

Forget about Alcantara: he'd take Mayer and Casas plus more.

Here are the BTVs:

 

38.7 Lopez (2 yrs)

36.5 Rogers (4 yrs) not a sure bet

28.0 Luzardo (4 yrs) the guy I usually suggest we trade for

19.3 Garrett (6 yrs) love the team control years

14.9 Cabrera (6 yrs)

 

Others possibly included:

7.5 Berti (3 yrs) Utility w high OBP in past

4.9 M Rojas SS (1yr) Perfect bridge to Mayer

3.1 Wendle 2B/3B (1 yr) I don't see the fit others see.

1.8 Stallings C (2 yrs) We tried to get him, last winter)

-26.0 A Garcia LF/RF ($41M/4 yrs)

-0.7 Bleier LHRP (2 yrs)

 

As you can see, with AGarcia included, we could maybe get Luzardo and Rojas for someone like Verdugo or Duran + Murphy- on paper.

 

 

.

[Bellhorn04]

The more I think about it, the more the idea of trading Casas is so antithetical to what Bloom is doing that the Marlins would have to offer something stupid for it to happen. And if anything it appears the Marlins are "driving a hard bargain".

[moonslav59]

The more I think about it, the more the idea of trading Casas is so antithetical to what Bloom is doing that the Marlins would have to offer something stupid for it to happen. And if anything it appears the Marlins are "driving a hard bargain".

 

It's not happening.

 

A trade with the Marlins may very well happen, but most likely for Rojas or Wendle.

 

As much as I dislike Duran's chances, giving up all his years for one of Rojas may be an overpay. I doubt they'd take Seabold and Dalbec for him. I'd do that, and add Ort or Brasier, if they want one.

[moonslav59]

Another MLBTR article about how the Marlins are looking to trade a SP'er from Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett or Cabrera.

 

I would not trade Rafaela for Cabrera, but I might package him with a second tier prospect for Rogers, Luzardo or Garrett.

[notin]

Another MLBTR article about how the Marlins are looking to trade a SP'er from Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett or Cabrera.

 

I would not trade Rafaela for Cabrera, but I might package him with a second tier prospect for Rogers, Luzardo or Garrett.

 

 

Actually it looks like Garrett is not so available. Not that it matters.

 

I’d deal Rafaela for Cabrera, but not so sure Miami would. No way Rafaela and a lesser prospect gets you a better Miami pitcher.

 

I don’t think Boston makes sense as a trading partner, unless Miami likes a package built around Verdugo…

[jacksonianmarch]

I don’t deal Casas for Lopez. Lopez is a fine back end of the rotation guy, but he’s not a front liner. And Casas has the upside of a middle of the order bat at a position of need. I’d only deal him for a front line guy like Alcantara. Makes little sense with the Sox at this stage to be looking at these guys if the cost is Casas or Mayer

[moonslav59]

Actually it looks like Garrett is not so available. Not that it matters.

 

I’d deal Rafaela for Cabrera, but not so sure Miami would. No way Rafaela and a lesser prospect gets you a better Miami pitcher.

 

I don’t think Boston makes sense as a trading partner, unless Miami likes a package built around Verdugo…

 

Verdugo, Duran and Murphy for Cabrera?

[Tedballgame]

I don’t deal Casas for Lopez. Lopez is a fine back end of the rotation guy, but he’s not a front liner. And Casas has the upside of a middle of the order bat at a position of need. I’d only deal him for a front line guy like Alcantara. Makes little sense with the Sox at this stage to be looking at these guys if the cost is Casas or Mayer

 

I can't remember ever agreeing with anything you say BUT, this is spot on.

[notin]

Verdugo, Duran and Murphy for Cabrera?

 

I’d do it. Unless I was GM of the Marlins…

[moonslav59]

I can't remember ever agreeing with anything you say BUT, this is spot on.

 

I would not trade Casas for Lopez and M Rojas.

[harmony]

From Sunday's FanGraphs chat with Mark Polishuk:

Devers lands

7:51 Boston gives Correa what Bogey got in SD would you approve ? I would

Mark P

7:51 Assuming Correa's leg is okay, sure, that would be a canny move for the Red Sox

https://live.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-14744.html

[Nick]

We want build a core group and we want to trade one of the center pieces? Not happening. One of our top prospects with 6 years of team control.

[Nick]

I want to see Mata and Rafaela aa soon as the first year vesting in majors is behind

them.