A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

Steve Cohen has obviously decided to thumb his nose at the luxury tax and all the penalties. And when you've got as much money as he does, maybe it's the right way to go. Yes the taxes and penalties are onerous, but maybe you can outspend all that.

 

The Sox meanwhile are trying to exercise restraint.

 

What we all know is that if the Sox miss the playoffs again or worse, finish last in the division again, their strategy is going to be thrown into even more question than it is right now.

 

Keep in mind we have been seeing the trend of teams blowing up the cap for 2-3 years and then resetting. A few years ago you could have said the same thing about the Dodgers, they looked willing to go above the cap in perpetuity but here we are in 2022 looking at them possibly resetting for the second time in 4 years. It's just too hard for me to assume a team in "Buy now" mode will stay there when they could just be following the same recipe as LA and others have. You only have to go back 4 years to when the Sox blew up the cap by 40 million and outspent everyone including LA, then they shed payroll and reset.

 

Maybe the Mets are the first to defy gravity here but we haven't seen ONE team go above the cap, and live there in perpetuity. Maybe they're the ones to do it, but no one has done it yet.

[notin]

Steve Cohen has obviously decided to thumb his nose at the luxury tax and all the penalties. And when you've got as much money as he does, maybe it's the right way to go. Yes the taxes and penalties are onerous, but maybe you can outspend all that.

 

The Sox meanwhile are trying to exercise restraint.

 

What we all know is that if the Sox miss the playoffs again or worse, finish last in the division again, their strategy is going to be thrown into even more question than it is right now.

 

And then what?

 

If Henry wanted a cheaper team, this is the course?

[notin]

I won’t be happy with the overall winter moves, if we add Kluber, Andria and Gallo/Conforro, but it could end up working out like ‘21 or better.

 

I won’t be betting on it, but some kids might carry us farther than we know.

 

This is why I think it’s still early to give up. I mean, technically it isn’t even winter yet…

[Bellhorn04]

And then what?

 

If Henry wanted a cheaper team, this is the course?

 

Not really sure what you're saying.

[notin]

Not really sure what you're saying.

 

There has been so much about “this is the year Bloom has to do something,” and “the Sox need to make the playoffs this year”, etc.

 

They might be awful this year as part of the script. The fear among too many fans is that Bloom is incompetent and doesn’t know what he’s doing. Well, what if he knows exactly what he’s doing? Then what?

[Bellhorn04]

This is why I think it’s still early to give up. I mean, technically it isn’t even winter yet…

 

Yes, but the goods have been flying off the shelves. Available talent is a finite commodity.

[Bellhorn04]

There has been so much about “this is the year Bloom has to do something,” and “the Sox need to make the playoffs this year”, etc.

 

They might be awful this year as part of the script. The fear among too many fans is that Bloom is incompetent and doesn’t know what he’s doing. Well, what if he knows exactly what he’s doing? Then what?

 

It's a fair question. But I can't overlook the fact that while Chaim Bloom is obviously a smart guy with good things on his resume, he's never actually run a team before this, and, well, we literally don't know yet if he knows what he's doing.

[notin]

Yes, but the goods have been flying off the shelves. Available talent is a finite commodity.

 

You’re only looking at one aspect of the market.

 

I know it’s one thing if you’re some guy on the Internet posting in web forums about “hidden gem” ball players who are actually far more talented than have been able to show in limited opportunities or whatever. But they do exist, and for obvious reasons.

 

There is also the trade market where richer teams give up dirt to acquire star players from poor teams…

[Bellhorn04]

There is also the trade market where richer teams give up dirt to acquire star players from poor teams…

 

How often does that happen? Seems like if anything the price is going up in trades too. Like the Castillo trade last year.

[Old Red]

It's a fair question. But I can't overlook the fact that while Chaim Bloom is obviously a smart guy with good things on his resume, he's never actually run a team before this, and, well, we literally don't know yet if he knows what he's doing.

 

That’s what I’ve been saying since he was hired in Boston. There is a big difference between being in the nerd room with all the analytics sheets, and being the front man. I still cling to he misread the room badly on Bogey, and we all saw the results, and better yet the dumbfounded look on his face.

[Old Red]

How often does that happen? Seems like if anything the price is going up in trades too. Like the Castillo trade last year.

 

I’m still waiting for just one of all the BTV accepted trades to happen for Boston.

[moonslav59]

It will be interesting to see the numbers when the dust settles, but it feels that the rate that the team pay per WAR has increased this year exponentially compared to other years. Player pay inflation is not new, but this jump at the moment appears unparalleled. Maybe that's a false perception on my point.

 

But two years ago Bogaerts and Story were arguable of equal value, and Bogaerts just got double his money two years later. He's getting paid to put up apx 45 WAR (if you factor in 2022 # + 10%) during the next 11 years. That would give him 78 Careers by the time her retires. That would currently make him the 70th-best baseball player to ever play the game. Placing him right in between Verlander and Joe Dimaggio.

 

I wonder if this trend is sustainable? or if the rug will be pulled out underneath someone. If the Sox jump in now would this be like buying towards the top of the TULIP BULB craze? I suppose we shouldn't expect much insight from the rabid fans (which I think I'm starting to gravitate to) in light of the front office and their inability to keep star talent. Locking guys up early holds more value now as free agent inflation rises. If there's truth to this, then it may be the wisest decision TO not buy, to wait it out, to try to build value on your roster. I understand that's probably the absolute last thing fans want to hear right now and an insanely unpopular opinion BUT teams like the Yankees and Mets are facing several years of the harshest penalties that will take away many of their picks and international bonus pool money. and thus....their ability to build up a farm system.

 

As unpopular as that might sound, they wouldn't be in this mess of needing to plug so many holes if they have done a better job of locking guys up early over the past 5-7 years. So the front office can't go without blame, and while I hope they reassess and change course, I also hope they don't get desperate and do something just to appease a fan base.

 

And with that......I still wouldn't hate a Carlos Correa signing.

 

Well said.

 

On the Bogey-Story comp, yes they were close to even 2 years ago, but the double pay for Bogey came just one year after Story's contract.

 

Now, the Story signing looks much better, right.

[mvp 78]

How often does that happen? Seems like if anything the price is going up in trades too. Like the Castillo trade last year.

 

I'd also like to see some examples please...

[Hugh2]

Well said.

 

On the Bogey-Story comp, yes they were close to even 2 years ago, but the double pay for Bogey came just one year after Story's contract.

 

Now, the Story signing looks much better, right.

 

Yes, but who could have projected the Bogey signing? I feel I was the highest guy in here projected $217/8 and I wasn't even close. I was close on the AAV, which would be close to even money if it was a 10-year deal. I never would have thought Bogey would get 10 years. Xander also got the longest contract for a player ever aged 30 years.

[moonslav59]

Or 2013. Even better. That teams sported a lot of familiar names from 2012 that had either better or bounce-back seasons. They took that horrible 2012 team and added middling free agents on mid-short-term deals to that team (Koji/Drew/Napoli/Vic) those guys added 15 WAR to the team, but what also happened was the Sox added 17 Wins just from the guys already on their roster. Guys like Ellsbury, Lackey, Nava, Buch, Lester, Salty, Ortiz, Pedey, Doubront all had better seasons and combined for an increase of WAR of 17.

 

Is it unrealistic to expect better results from guys like Story, Devers, Sale, Kike, Verdugo, Barnes etc. Add in Rookie infusions from Bello, Casas and some key FA additions (a closer, a set up man, and an OF bat)???? I don't think so. I still think they need a SP, and a SS, and maybe another corner RHH OF. But I think the Red Sox are much better than people give them credit for. If healthy, they still have a lot of talent and I'm interested to see what the roster looks like in April.

 

Here's a fact. If the Sox have a winning record in June the seats will be packed and no one will be complaining. Well....most of us won't be.

 

Not only do I think it is realistic to expect better from Kike, Story, Devers, Dugo, Barnes and others like more PAs from Casas and more IP from Bello, I think the odds are better than 50-50 on all of them. Of course, not all will do better, but as a group, I expect them to improve.

 

I realize guys like McGuire could go back to hitting .580, and Casas & Bello may experience some growing pains, but we also have a chance one of the many younger players we have that are ML or near ML ready may bounce upwards by way more than we expected. We've seen it on other teams for far too long. Maybe it's our turn, and I'm not saying that as a luck thing: we have some very talented young guys that may pull a Whitlock or something. Mata, Kelly, German, Walter, E Valdez, and of course Bello & Casas. Even one unimpressive guy like Crawford, Wink or Seabold could step it up a hefty notch. Barnes & Taylor? Maybe one excels to past levels.

 

There are so many options for improvement, and we don't need them all to improve to see a step up from the team carried over from 2022.

 

Add $80M or so in new additions, and there is reason to be optimistic, although I don't expect to see it here.

[mvp 78]

That’s what I’ve been saying since he was hired in Boston. There is a big difference between being in the nerd room with all the analytics sheets, and being the front man. I still cling to he misread the room badly on Bogey, and we all saw the results, and better yet the dumbfounded look on his face.

 

I believe the picture they showed in the Globe wasn't from the airport, it was from Fenway and a much earlier date.

[notin]

How often does that happen? Seems like if anything the price is going up in trades too. Like the Castillo trade last year.

 

Sometimes yes. Although I think he was under control through 2023 at the time of that deal.

 

Contreras went for peanuts just yesterday…

[mvp 78]

Sometimes yes. Although I think he was under control through 2023 at the time of that deal.

 

Contreras went for peanuts just yesterday…

 

So one trade is what you can come up with?

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes yes. Although I think he was under control through 2023 at the time of that deal.

 

Contreras went for peanuts just yesterday…

 

The Brewers seem to have virtually committed a crime on that one.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but who could have projected the Bogey signing? I feel I was the highest guy in here projected $217/8 and I wasn't even close. I was close on the AAV, which would be close to even money if it was a 10-year deal. I never would have thought Bogey would get 10 years. Xander also got the longest contract for a player ever aged 30 years.

 

It was a stunning contract- almost rivaling Seager's.

 

Make you think we should have signed 6 good guys, last winter.

[notin]

I believe the picture they showed in the Globe wasn't from the airport, it was from Fenway and a much earlier date.

 

No!!!

 

The Globe sports journalism needs to improve mightily just to the sporting version of the Weekly World News…

[notin]

The Brewers seem to have virtually committed a crime on that one.

 

I know BTV is not the authority on trade value, but the one team that consistently gets ripped off on their model is Oakland…

[notin]

So one trade is what you can come up with?

 

And one trade was the sample for the counterpoint. Mine was just more recent of the two…

[moonslav59]

The Brewers seem to have virtually committed a crime on that one.

 

I thought we were looking to add a catcher.

 

Is Contreras bad with pitchers or on D.

[a700hitter]

C- McGuire/ Wong

1B- Cassas/ Hosmer

2B- Kike

SS - Story

3B - Devers

RF- Verdugo

CF- Duran

LF - Yoshida

DH- Dalbec

 

P- Sale

P- Paxton

P- Winkowski

P- Bello

P - Whitlock

 

BP- Jansen

BP - Martin

BP - Joely

BP - Houck

BP - Brasier

BP- Barnes

 

Is this where we are as of today?

 

Even with Pivetta, ^ this is bad, and it is boring too!

[mvp 78]

Even with Pivetta, ^ this is bad, and it is boring too!

 

There's lots of entertainment in watching car crashes in CF.

[moonslav59]

Even with Pivetta, ^ this is bad, and it is boring too!

 

You guys got your closer. You said that was what we needed.

[Bellhorn04]

You guys got your closer. You said that was what we needed.

 

One of the things.

[moonslav59]

One of the things.

 

I believe, with some, they just said: "We need a closer," or "We need to fix the pen."

 

 

Sure, they probably felt more was needed last March, but that was a very common refrain.

[mvp 78]

I believe, with some, they just said: "We need a closer," or "We need to fix the pen."

 

 

Sure, they probably felt more was needed last March, but that was a very common refrain.

 

I'm sure they meant fix the pen and it's ok to let Xander go and not sign anyone else. That makes sense.