A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

"Devers could easily be MVP caliber for the next 10 years, or just a few years and fall off a cliff. But that's kind of the reality of every good player, what they do in their 30's defines their career. It can be the difference between Nomar or Jeter."

 

Really good point. But one thing Jeter did in his 30s is play on the same team as Mariano Rivera. It's also luck (or skill on the part of management) to stay surrounded by good teammates.

 

This is something the Angels have always struggled to with in the Mike Trout years. Recruiting Rendon, alone, would never be enough support -- and we're seeing, not even Ohtani can help them make the postseason. But they're trying; remember the draft a few years ago when they selected pitchers with every single pick in the first 12 rounds?

 

I mean, is that necessarily a good strategy?

[notin]

Price wasn't a great contract, but they needed to bring in a guy to lead the staff. They just picked the wrong guy. I don't think Price was the main reason they couldn't re-sign Mookie though. I think they were more scared by the sticker shock.

 

Maybe he wasn’t or maybe he had more influence on the situation than we realize. “I got a pile of injured garbage for $217mill and now they want me to pay $400mill?!?”

 

I’d always heard Mookie was adamant about testing the market. And maybe he was at the time. Or maybe someone in the press just felt like he was. That he reportedly asked for $420mill over however many years certainly didn’t make out look like starting in Boston was anywhere on his priority list.

 

The trade was really just a salary dump and it looked to me like the Sox has little other recourse. And if it was k just a salary dump (which is supported by including Price). what kind of value does any team get in return on those? The Sox dealt Anthony Rizzo (with others ) to get Adrian Gonzalez. Less than two years later, they dumped Gonzalez and his contract and a few other for a nondescript pile of prospects that in hindsight could be described as “headlined by James Loney.” THAT is what dumping salary gets you…

[moonslav59]

And you got jack s*** for it. Spending is worth it when you are talking about a generational talent. Betts and Judge are generational talents. Thing is, Betts was going into his walk year on a team that was heading for the basement. Betts issue was more timing than anything else. If Betts hit FA when the sox were winning the AL East and were title contenders, I do not doubt that Henry would have made every push to sign him. You're running into the same thing now. Xander is a great talent. I wouldn't say generational like Betts, but he is a great Red Sox. If the sox werent doormats this year and staring at another year or two of doormat-dom, then it would be a no brainer. But it makes little sense to sign a 30+ yr old SS with limited range to a huge deal if the first couple years are not going to be successful for the team. If Bogey stays and goes .300/30/100 and the sox win 75 games, it was a waste

 

The problem was more complicated.

 

Year one, we did not even replace the Betts and half-Price money, in full, and we had about 15-20 weak spots on the 40 man roster to fill. It was impossible to add "generational talent" on that 2020 budget.

 

In 2021, we spent about $40M in AAV- almost all on 1 year deals (Kike and Sawamura got 2 year deals at under $7M/yr.) Again, we had so many weak spots to fill, it would have been hard to sign a big FA without leaving many slots near bare.

 

2022, started out much like 2021. It looked like we were going to spend about the same as 2021- just replacing the one year contracts that elapsed. Then, in late March, we signed Story to a $140M/6 deal- not a mega deal, but the biggest since Sale. A generational talent? Ummm....

 

Had we used the Betts projected contract offer plus the $16M Price savings, we'd have about $45M a year plus whatever Dugo, Wong and Downs give us. In theory, that seems like a reasonable deal, but $45M was likely not enough, unless Bloom hit on 90%+ of all of his low to mid level FA signings.

 

It's hard enough to hit on 50% of signings over $15M a year, and those are supposed to be the better and surer signings.

 

The one year signings were basically punting the choices down the road, until we found out more about what we could expect from our farm. The farm infusions were so sporadic and underwhelming that no real help was realized. Had it not been for Bloom's freak Rule 5 finding, in Whitlock, and some production fro Houck, we could say that we basically have gotten near nothing since the Devers call-up so many years ago. Expecting a rebuild to occur solely from free agency on a $40M winter spending budget is pure folly.

[mvp 78]

Maybe he wasn’t or maybe he had more influence on the situation than we realize. “I got a pile of injured garbage for $217mill and now they want me to pay $400mill?!?”

 

I’d always heard Mookie was adamant about testing the market. And maybe he was at the time. Or maybe someone in the press just felt like he was. That he reportedly asked for $420mill over however many years certainly didn’t make out look like starting in Boston was anywhere on his priority list.

 

The trade was really just a salary dump and it looked to me like the Sox has little other recourse. And if it was k just a salary dump (which is supported by including Price). what kind of value does any team get in return on those? The Sox dealt Anthony Rizzo (with others ) to get Adrian Gonzalez. Less than two years later, they dumped Gonzalez and his contract and a few other for a nondescript pile of prospects that in hindsight could be described as “headlined by James Loney.” THAT is what dumping salary gets you…

 

At the time, Allen Webster and RDLR had much higher upside than "nondescript prospect." Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean they didn't have value at the time. Saying less than 2 months of James Loney headlined the trade is just wrong IMO.

[moonslav59]

Maybe he wasn’t or maybe he had more influence on the situation than we realize. “I got a pile of injured garbage for $217mill and now they want me to pay $400mill?!?”

 

I’d always heard Mookie was adamant about testing the market. And maybe he was at the time. Or maybe someone in the press just felt like he was. That he reportedly asked for $420mill over however many years certainly didn’t make out look like starting in Boston was anywhere on his priority list.

 

The trade was really just a salary dump and it looked to me like the Sox has little other recourse. And if it was k just a salary dump (which is supported by including Price). what kind of value does any team get in return on those? The Sox dealt Anthony Rizzo (with others ) to get Adrian Gonzalez. Less than two years later, they dumped Gonzalez and his contract and a few other for a nondescript pile of prospects that in hindsight could be described as “headlined by James Loney.” THAT is what dumping salary gets you…

 

This is the reality.

 

The fact that the "average Sox fan" could give a flying EFff about the inner workings of a budget and long term planning does not make it meaning less to whoever the GM and top management is at the time.

 

One could simplify a common rally cry to this:

 

We got ourselves into this situation by neglecting the farm and going large and long on aging stars, so the solution should be to trade away some of the farm and sign more large and long deals with more aging stars. This would make the "average fan" happy, until we reach where we are, today, again and again.

 

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[moonslav59]

At the time, Allen Webster and RDLR had much higher upside than "nondescript prospect." Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean they didn't have value at the time. Saying less than 2 months of James Loney headlined the trade is just wrong IMO.

 

True, but the salary dump aspect of that deal was the central theme.

 

AGon certainly still had value, despite the hindsight view that showed he really never regained what he showed before the Sox got him.

 

Beckett still had value, despite showing some signs of decline from being a top MLB starter and a playoff hero who was on his way towards cementing his legacy as one of the best "money pitchers" of all time playoff history, until he stumbled.

 

CC was a total salary dump, and we even paid part of his deal to get the Dodger to agree to take him.

 

I did expect better from RDLR & Webster, and I'm sure the Sox did, too.

 

At the time, I rated this trade as one of the top 3-5 trades in Sox history. When we spent the "money saved" on that deal, one could easily compare the choices to what Bloom did with his savings, but Bloom's was on a much smaller scale. We did not really acquire anyone "flashy" or "generational" as jacko called it, but rather guys like Vic, Napoli, Dempster, Stephen Drew and Gomes. That winter worked out much better than Bloom's 2021 and 2022 prior winters, for sure, but many, including myself, and probably most "average fans" were not happy with those choices, until October came around.

[mvp 78]

True, but the salary dump aspect of that deal was the central theme.

 

AGon certainly still had value, despite the hindsight view that showed he really never regained what he showed before the Sox got him.

 

Beckett still had value, despite showing some signs of decline from being a top MLB starter and a playoff hero who was on his way towards cementing his legacy as one of the best "money pitchers" of all time playoff history, until he stumbled.

 

CC was a total salary dump, and we even paid part of his deal to get the Dodger to agree to take him.

 

I did expect better from RDLR & Webster, and I'm sure the Sox did, too.

 

At the time, I rated this trade as one of the top 3-5 trades in Sox history. When we spent the "money saved" on that deal, one could easily compare the choices to what Bloom did with his savings, but Bloom's was on a much smaller scale. We did not really acquire anyone "flashy" or "generational" as jacko called it, but rather guys like Vic, Napoli, Dempster, Stephen Drew and Gomes. That winter worked out much better than Bloom's 2021 and 2022 prior winters, for sure, but many, including myself, and probably most "average fans" were not happy with those choices, until October came around.

 

1. Yes, the Beckett/AGon/CC trade was mainly a salary dump because they wanted to clear out some malcontents from the clubhouse and start over. That's not really up for debate. I think they got ok value considering how much the Dodgers took on. Gonzalez provided decent value his first 3 years and CC for 2, but overall they ended up eating some bad contract years (especially with Beckett who was never the same).

 

2. I don't believe the Betts deal was a "salary dump." They included Price to dump his salary, sure. The Betts portion wasn't to clear $27M off the books, it was to get future value for losing Betts in less than 12 months.

[oldtimer]

This is the reality.

 

The fact that the "average Sox fan" could give a flying EFff about the inner workings of a budget and long term planning does not make it meaning less to whoever the GM and top management is at the time.

 

One could simplify a common rally cry to this:

 

We got ourselves into this situation by neglecting the farm and going large and long on aging stars, so the solution should be to trade away some of the farm and sign more large and long deals with more aging stars. This would make the "average fan" happy, until we reach where we are, today, again and again.

 

Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

We have talked about the need to have a productive farm system. To do that, we need to draft well (lot of competition there), we need to develop our raw talent and perhaps we need to trade players who are either near decline or off of a top but unlikely repeatable year, and by doing so acquire developmental talent. The better teams are able to promote a few low cost but higher potential players each year to supplement it's core players. The core players are subject to the wear and team of the 162 game season and all teams suffer injuries so the farm is an important part of the depth equation. The Sox haven't done well in this area in the past and with Bloom we see farm improvement but the verdict is out. Let's wait and see what he does to strengthen the core and how well the improved farm produces the needed depth and energy players in 2023.

[mvp 78]

We have talked about the need to have a productive farm system. To do that, we need to draft well (lot of competition there), we need to develop our raw talent and perhaps we need to trade players who are either near decline or off of a top but unlikely repeatable year, and by doing so acquire developmental talent. The better teams are able to promote a few low cost but higher potential players each year to supplement it's core players. The core players are subject to the wear and team of the 162 game season and all teams suffer injuries so the farm is an important part of the depth equation. The Sox haven't done well in this area in the past and with Bloom we see farm improvement but the verdict is out. Let's wait and see what he does to strengthen the core and how well the improved farm produces the needed depth and energy players in 2023.

 

The homegrown infusion from Betts/Bradley/Bogaerts/Benintendi/Vazquez/Devers certainly helped the 2018 team. I think they had a decent run of growing players on the offensive side of things, it's pitching where they have certainly struggled for a while. Maybe it has turned a corner? Maybe it hasn't? It's hard to say at this point. There are lots of eggs in the basket, but we don't know how many will hatch.

[Old Red]

This is the reality.

 

The fact that the "average Sox fan" could give a flying EFff about the inner workings of a budget and long term planning does not make it meaning less to whoever the GM and top management is at the time.

 

One could simplify a common rally cry to this:

 

We got ourselves into this situation by neglecting the farm and going large and long on aging stars, so the solution should be to trade away some of the farm and sign more large and long deals with more aging stars. This would make the "average fan" happy, until we reach where we are, today, again and again.

 

Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

Wash, rinse, repeat? How many times have you used that? That sounds like wash, rinse repeat to me. Rebuild, reset, cliff, we are where we are today, because of gong all in, and cleaning out the farm in previous years all things we have heard many times over. In other words wash, rinse repeat. The average fan like me who doesn’t give a flying F about the inner workings of a budget, and long term planning I don’t have to know. I’m just a fan like you, and not the GM. We gone over this many times that if you want to think more like the GM that’s fine, and that works for you, but for the fans who don’t that’s fine too. I don’t see, how one way is better than the other. To each his own, and different strokes for different folks.

[moonslav59]

We have talked about the need to have a productive farm system. To do that, we need to draft well (lot of competition there), we need to develop our raw talent and perhaps we need to trade players who are either near decline or off of a top but unlikely repeatable year, and by doing so acquire developmental talent. The better teams are able to promote a few low cost but higher potential players each year to supplement it's core players. The core players are subject to the wear and team of the 162 game season and all teams suffer injuries so the farm is an important part of the depth equation. The Sox haven't done well in this area in the past and with Bloom we see farm improvement but the verdict is out. Let's wait and see what he does to strengthen the core and how well the improved farm produces the needed depth and energy players in 2023.

 

It seems many are not patient enough to wait the 4-7 years need to rebuild a farm and start seeing the results of that endeavour.

[moonslav59]

The homegrown infusion from Betts/Bradley/Bogaerts/Benintendi/Vazquez/Devers certainly helped the 2018 team. I think they had a decent run of growing players on the offensive side of things, it's pitching where they have certainly struggled for a while. Maybe it has turned a corner? Maybe it hasn't? It's hard to say at this point. There are lots of eggs in the basket, but we don't know how many will hatch.

 

True, but we can see how all those homegrown players prior to Devers compare to this post Devers. It’s been a long time form the Devers call up.

[moonslav59]

Wash, rinse, repeat? How many times have you used that? That sounds like wash, rinse repeat to me. Rebuild, reset, cliff, we are where we are today, because of gong all in, and cleaning out the farm in previous years all things we have heard many times over. In other words wash, rinse repeat. The average fan like me who doesn’t give a flying F about the inner workings of a budget, and long term planning I don’t have to know. I’m just a fan like you, and not the GM. We gone over this many times that if you want to think more like the GM that’s fine, and that works for you, but for the fans who don’t that’s fine too. I don’t see, how one way is better than the other. To each his own, and different strokes for different folks.

 

Sound like the same wash, rinse and repeat from you, as well.

[notin]

At the time, Allen Webster and RDLR had much higher upside than "nondescript prospect." Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean they didn't have value at the time. Saying less than 2 months of James Loney headlined the trade is just wrong IMO.

 

Webster was quite sought after, but as I said “in hindsight”.

 

Jeter Downs also came with a good prospect rep, and he hasn’t even washed out yet, but nearly everyone has worn him off…

[mvp 78]

True, but we can see how all those homegrown players prior to Devers compare to this post Devers. It’s been a long time form the Devers call up.

 

That's the gap from DD trading a lot of the farm away.

[notin]

That's the gap from DD trading a lot of the farm away.

 

A gap that includes Margot, Kopech, Moncada and Espinal, not to mention Benintendi…

[mvp 78]

A gap that includes Margot, Kopech, Moncada and Espinal, not to mention Benintendi…

 

Dubon, Logan Allen, Anderson Espinoza, Beeks

[harmony]

We have talked about the need to have a productive farm system. To do that, we need to draft well (lot of competition there), we need to develop our raw talent .

In addition to the draft the Red Sox need to mine the international market that has yielded Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela and others.

[mvp 78]

In addition to the draft the Red Sox need to mine the international market that has yielded Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela and others.

 

Current top 20 Sox Prospect IFA's:

Bleis

Rafaela

Mata

Paulino

Perales

Wikelman

Bonaci

[Larry Cook]

Current top 20 Sox Prospect IFA's:

Bleis

Rafaela

Mata

Paulino

Perales

Wikelman

Bonaci

 

That is a pretty impressive group!

 

I think we are linked to 2 of the top 50 on international free agents for the next signing period.

[Nick]

Kopech and Moncada yielded Chris Sale.

 

That was a good trade. Evaluation of his last contract is still up in the air.

[Nick]

Current top 20 Sox Prospect IFA's:

Bleis

Rafaela

Mata

Paulino

Perales

Wikelman

Bonaci

 

It will be interesting to see how Mata progresses. I'm guessing he'll be called up sometime in 2023.

 

He was rated ahead of everyone else before his surgery.

[Nick]

One metric that may say it all

 

Yankees 805 RS 563 RA

Red Sox 729 RS 784 RA

 

 

We have lot of work to do....

 

#1

#2

#3

#4 Pivetta

#5 Bello

 

Having five #4/#5 pitchers won't do.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Nick

[mvp 78]

That is a pretty impressive group!

 

I think we are linked to 2 of the top 50 on international free agents for the next signing period.

 

I can never follow who is linked to who. Signing day is fun as I get to check out a few Youtube videos of 16 year old kids I've never heard of, but that's about it.

[mvp 78]

Kopech and Moncada yielded Chris Sale.

 

That was a good trade. Evaluation of his last contract is still up in the air.

 

The initial trade was fair. The extension was bad IMO.

 

Going back in time, the Sox do that trade 10 out of 10 times.

[mvp 78]

It will be interesting to see how Mata progresses. I'm guessing he'll be called up sometime in 2023.

 

He was rated ahead of everyone else before his surgery.

 

I agree. I think both he and Ward can provide the big club something next season. Both were out due to TJS. Both were top 10 prospects and at roughly the same advanced level at time of injury. Maybe Ward gets in the 7th/8th inning mix and Mata gets in the rotation at some point?

[notin]

Kopech and Moncada yielded Chris Sale.

 

That was a good trade. Evaluation of his last contract is still up in the air.

 

It was a good trade.

 

His last contract is pretty much a bust. 3 years and $85mill spent on 48 IP.

 

Hopefully he can salvage back something in the final two years….

[Bellhorn04]

It was a good trade.

 

His last contract is pretty much a bust. 3 years and $85mill spent on 48 IP.

 

Hopefully he can salvage back something in the final two years….

 

Don't forget your 2020 pro-rating!

[moonslav59]

The following prospects may graduate in 2023:

 

(They have Bello already graduated.)

 

2. Casas

4. Rafaela (late '23)

6. Mata (mid to late '23)

8. Walter (late '23)

11. Wong

12. Murphy (late '23)

14. EValdez (mid to late '23)

23. Seabold

24. Downs

27. German

29. Kelly

[moonslav59]

One metric that may say it all

 

Yankees 805 RS 563 RA

Red Sox 729 RS 784 RA

 

 

We have lot of work to do....

 

#1

#2

#3

#4 Pivetta

#5 Bello

 

Having five #4/#5 pitchers won't do.

 

Scary as hell. Of course, they may have Whitlock and or Houck slotted in one or two of those holes, and they likely are counting on Sale and or Paxton to fill another one or two.

 

#1

#2 Sale and Whitlock

#3 Whitlock OR Houck

#4 Pivetta

#5 Bello (Crawford/Winckowski/Seabold/Walter/Mata/TWard/Murphy)