A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

And yet, the Benintendi trade is overlooked by some as what it is: an abject failure (remember, this discussion is about the players exchanged in trades).

 

if you look at the return for Beni -- so far, because there are minor leaguers who haven't made it yet, just like in the JBJ deal...

 

... the two guys who have made the majors, Cordero and Winckowski, are both negative WAR players -- or by definition, below the value of replacement players. There's Franchy, -0.7 in '21 and -0.3 in '22 for the Sox, and Josh, -0.3 in '22.

 

Posters can argue that Beni was worthless in his last 14-game summer in Boston... but not worth less, since he was only -0.1 in 2020. Since then, Beni has made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove and posted 3.0 POSITIVE WAR. It doesn't matter if you liked Andrew or not, that trade was also a flop.

 

 

I don’t think comparing Winckowski and his 68IP and half a season under his belt to Benintendi his 540 PA this season. Playing time is part of the fWAR calculation, as it’s a measure of accomplishment, not ability.

 

Also Winckowski has 5 years left and Benintendi is effectively a free agent now..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t think comparing Winckowski and his 68IP and half a season under his belt to Benintendi his 540 PA this season. Playing time is part of the fWAR calculation, as it’s a measure of accomplishment, not ability.

 

Also Winckowski has 5 years left and Benintendi is effectively a free agent now..

 

If you're going to argue that, then Binelas and Hamilton have 12 years left combined, right?

[moonslav59]

And yet, the Benintendi trade is overlooked by some as what it is: an abject failure (remember, this discussion is about the players exchanged in trades).

 

if you look at the return for Beni -- so far, because there are minor leaguers who haven't made it yet, just like in the JBJ deal...

 

... the two guys who have made the majors, Cordero and Winckowski, are both negative WAR players -- or by definition, below the value of replacement players. There's Franchy, -0.7 in '21 and -0.3 in '22 for the Sox, and Josh, -0.3 in '22.

 

Posters can argue that Beni was worthless in his last 14-game summer in Boston... but not worth less, since he was only -0.1 in 2020. Since then, Beni has made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove and posted 3.0 POSITIVE WAR. It doesn't matter if you liked Andrew or not, that trade was also a flop.

 

The money saved trading Beni forced Bloom to sign Renfroe.

 

(Or, you could claim Marwin.)

[notin]

If you're going to argue that, then Binelas and Hamilton have 12 years left combined, right?

 

Seriously?

 

Last year, the Cubs traded Javier Baez to the Mets at the deadline and Baez played well for his new team, earning 1.9 bWAR. In return the Cubs got a 19yo OF in low A ball.

 

Baez has moved on and signed with Detroit. That 19yo kid, named Pete Crow-Armstrong, cracked the BA Top 100 this year, put up a 1.000 OPS in A ball, got promoted to high A, and climbed to the top spot in the Cubs rankings. Oh, and Google best minor league defensive center fielder 2022, and he’s the top match.

 

But they gave up 1.9 bWAR. Did the Cubs win or lose that trade?

Edited September 9, 2022 by notin

[notin]

If you're going to argue that, then Binelas and Hamilton have 12 years left combined, right?

 

A week or two ago, Hugh (I think?) and I were talking about how too many people have already given up on Winckowski and Crawford. After a few posts about giving up too early on young pitchers, a few posters chimed in on how they haven’t given up on Bello yet. Really? Haven’t given up yet on the 22yo kid who throws 98mph with (at the time) like 18 IP for his career? Not exactly what I meant by being patient with younger pitchers.

 

I don’t think it’s exactly time to give up on Winckowski (or Crawford) just yet…

[moonslav59]

A week or two ago, Hugh (I think?) and I were talking about how too many people have already given up on Winckowski and Crawford. After a few posts about giving up too early on young pitchers, a few posters chimed in on how they haven’t given up on Bello yet. Really? Haven’t given up yet on the 22yo kid who throws 98mph with (at the time) like 18 IP for his career? Not exactly what I meant by being patient with younger pitchers.

 

I don’t think it’s exactly time to give up on Winckowski (or Crawford) just yet…

 

How about Seabold?

 

(I agree, totally. This was there first serious look at the bigs.)

[moonslav59]

Seriously?

 

Last year, the Cubs traded Javier Baez to the Mets at the deadline and Baez played well for his new team, earning 1.9 bWAR. In return the Cubs got a 19yo OF in low A ball.

 

Baez has moved on and signed with Detroit. That 19yo kid, named Pete Crow-Armstrong, cracked the BA Top 100 this year, put up a 1.000 OPS in A ball, got promoted to high A, and climbed to the top spot in the Cubs rankings. Oh, and Google best minor league defensive center fielder 2022, and he’s the top match.

 

But they gave up 1.9 bWAR. Did the Cubs win or lose that trade?

 

Even if Crow-Armstrong does next to nothing, they did not lose the trade, IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A week or two ago, Hugh (I think?) and I were talking about how too many people have already given up on Winckowski and Crawford. After a few posts about giving up too early on young pitchers, a few posters chimed in on how they haven’t given up on Bello yet. Really? Haven’t given up yet on the 22yo kid who throws 98mph with (at the time) like 18 IP for his career? Not exactly what I meant by being patient with younger pitchers.

 

I don’t think it’s exactly time to give up on Winckowski (or Crawford) just yet…

 

... or Hamilton or Binelas? When can a trade be definitively evaluated as bad or good? When all the players exchanged have retired, so we can compare their final stats?

 

The discussion was about how brutal the Renfroe trade was this year, and I added that we've had twice as long to reflect on the players exchanged in the Benintendi trade (and we're talking actual bodies, not how the savings on his albatross $3M was subsequently reinvested, whether it was on office supplies or grooming for Wally).

 

A lot of fans view the Mookie trade less favorably after watching Jeter Downs completely flail in his big league debut this summer. But did you see the assist Connor Wong had the other night to cut down a runner at the plate on a wild pitch? It was an amazing 50-foot back-hand line drive toss to Strahm covering. Wong could very well split catching duties for the '23 Sox, then we'd have two regulars in the line-up from the same trade.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

A week or two ago, Hugh (I think?) and I were talking about how too many people have already given up on Winckowski and Crawford. After a few posts about giving up too early on young pitchers, a few posters chimed in on how they haven’t given up on Bello yet. Really? Haven’t given up yet on the 22yo kid who throws 98mph with (at the time) like 18 IP for his career? Not exactly what I meant by being patient with younger pitchers.

 

I don’t think it’s exactly time to give up on Winckowski (or Crawford) just yet…

 

Bello has a live arm, there is reason for excitement. What has Winckowski showed that would get me excited?

[Bellhorn04]

Bello has a live arm' date=' there is reason for excitement. What has Winckowski showed that would get me excited?[/quote']

 

I'm not super-excited about Wink, but he's only 24, and he did pitch some good games.

[Hugh2]

It's way too early to give up on any of those guys, but if we want to talk about what they could be.....In order of how good they can be I'm excited about Bello/Crawford/Wink.

 

Bello I think could develop into a #2 if everything breaks right, maybe more of a #3. Crawford could be a back-end guy if everything breaks right but his stuff might play up better in a pen role/swingman role. I see Wink in a similar role.

[mvp 78]

Bello has a live arm' date=' there is reason for excitement. What has Winckowski showed that would get me excited?[/quote']

 

He's a back of the rotation guy most likely. He pitches to contact and it may take him a while to figure it out in the bigs. Maybe a bulk relief role can work for him in the short term?

 

Crawford seems to have a more live arm that could pop more in the pen.

[moonslav59]

Bello has a live arm' date=' there is reason for excitement. What has Winckowski showed that would get me excited?[/quote']

 

Great?Good numbers at AAA is about it. (.576 OPS Against)

[Hugh2]

He's a back of the rotation guy most likely. He pitches to contact and it may take him a while to figure it out in the bigs. Maybe a bulk relief role can work for him in the short term?

 

Crawford seems to have a more live arm that could pop more in the pen.

 

Winc strikes me as the guy who is up/down, provides bulk relief and depth but might have a season or two in his peak where he's just on and can pass as a #4 or 5...retired by 30. The complete conjecture here...predicting his career.

[moonslav59]

It's way too early to give up on any of those guys, but if we want to talk about what they could be.....In order of how good they can be I'm excited about Bello/Crawford/Wink.

 

Bello I think could develop into a #2 if everything breaks right, maybe more of a #3. Crawford could be a back-end guy if everything breaks right but his stuff might play up better in a pen role/swingman role. I see Wink in a similar role.

 

Sounds about right. Maybe Crawford and Wink end up being 2-3 inning RP'ers- possibly avoiding many high leverage situations.

 

I do think Bello could become a solid #2/3 type.

 

I'm also higher on Mata than Wink and Crawford. I like Walter, a lot, but he may be a late 2023 addition. (75 Ks and 7 BBs in 58 IP)

[mvp 78]

Sounds about right. Maybe Crawford and Wink end up being 2-3 inning RP'ers- possibly avoiding many high leverage situations.

 

I do think Bello could become a solid #2/3 type.

 

I'm also higher on Mata than Wink and Crawford. I like Walter, a lot, but he may be a late 2023 addition. (75 Ks and 7 BBs in 58 IP)

 

Mata and Bello have "live arms." You should be higher on them.

 

Brandon Walter is an older guy who has better command/control than any of the other guys you've mentioned. He hasn't shown anything above AA yet though. He's already 26.

[moonslav59]

Mata and Bello have "live arms." You should be higher on them.

 

Brandon Walter is an older guy who has better command/control than any of the other guys you've mentioned. He hasn't shown anything above AA yet though. He's already 26.

 

I said, I'm higher on Mata than Crawford or Wink. I said I see Bello as a 2/3 type.

 

That's not "high" enough?

 

Yes, Walter just turned 26 days ago, but I like him more than Wink and Seabold. Probably Crawford, too.

[mvp 78]

I said, I'm higher on Mata than Crawford or Wink. I said I see Bello as a 2/3 type.

 

That's not "high" enough?

 

Yes, Walter just turned 26 days ago, but I like him more than Wink and Seabold. Probably Crawford, too.

I was agreeing with you, numbnuts...

 

Hard for me to really separate Walter/Wink/Sea/Crawdaddy just yet. They are all in a gumbo of who the hell knows, but are probably back end of the rotation guys who probably kick around the league in bullpen roles. None of them pop out at you the way Mata and Bello do. You could probably throw Ward into that mix as well for now.

[moonslav59]

I was agreeing with you, numbnuts...

 

 

You said, "You should be higher" on them, which is saying I'm not high enough.

 

I'll refrain from calling you a name back.

[mvp 78]

You said, "You should be higher" on them, which is saying I'm not high enough.

 

I'll refrain from calling you a name back.

 

You SHOULD be higher on them.

 

You should be HIGHER on them.

 

I believe those are two completely different sentences.

 

Please don't call me "name back."

[moonslav59]

Hard for me to really separate Walter/Wink/Sea/Crawdaddy just yet. They are all in a gumbo of who the hell knows, but are probably back end of the rotation guys who probably kick around the league in bullpen roles.

 

Crawdad has shown some ML success, so he's one up on the rest in that area.

 

Walter is the only one with a K:BB ratio like 75:7, so I give him an edge, but yes, Bello & Mata are alone on "pop."

 

I'm not sure when the last time we had two so near ML ready.

[moonslav59]

You SHOULD be higher on them.

 

You should be HIGHER on them.

 

I'm high enough.

[mvp 78]

I'm high enough.

 

Don't make me tap the sign, old man.

[mvp 78]

Crawdad has shown some ML success, so he's one up on the rest in that area.

 

Walter is the only one with a K:BB ratio like 75:7, so I give him an edge, but yes, Bello & Mata are alone on "pop."

 

I'm not sure when the last time we had two so near ML ready.

 

At the very least, they have a bunch of "guys" that can at least provide value in the pen or in a trade. Bloom just has to figure out which arms he really likes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At the very least, they have a bunch of "guys" that can at least provide value in the pen or in a trade. Bloom just has to figure out which arms he really likes.

 

Looking ahead to actually compete again in the AL East, would it be too lofty a goal this offseason to prepare an entire roster of big leaguers to travel to Toronto in 2023?

[mvp 78]

Looking ahead to actually compete again in the AL East, would it be too lofty a goal this offseason to prepare an entire roster of big leaguers to travel to Toronto in 2023?

 

The newest market inefficiency is collecting guys that can't play in TOR. Just send WOO up there a few times a year and see if Mieses can blast a few upper deck shots for funsies. You'll be able to rest your pitching staff and won't need to give your roster days off the rest of the year because they'd be built in during trips to TOR.

 

You're only punting on 10 games a year and maybe WOO wins 2 of them?

[moonslav59]

At the very least, they have a bunch of "guys" that can at least provide value in the pen or in a trade. Bloom just has to figure out which arms he really likes.

 

There are a few others on the fringes trying to join the conversation. Those who poo-poo our farm building, which includes some DD risers are underestimating the quality and quantity of pitchers we have, right now:

 

OPS Against

.495 German AA/AAA

.601 TWard (4 teams)

.623 Wikelman A/A+

.626 de la Rosa FCL/A

.648 Encarnacion A/A+

.657 Uberstine A/A+

.661 Murphy AA/AAA (slumping, of late)

.684 Drohan A+/AA

.687 Wallace AA

.691 J THompson AA/AAA

and then there is Noah Song

[mvp 78]

Has there even been a Noah Song update recently? Last I heard he was still in limbo.

 

There are a lot of arms. A guy like Zeferjahn could be featured in the pen next year if he reduces his pitch mix.

 

The most intriguing arms outside of Bello and Mata to me are probably Wikelman, Perales and Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. None of them would be up in the next two years though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The newest market inefficiency is collecting guys that can't play in TOR. Just send WOO up there a few times a year and see if Mieses can blast a few upper deck shots for funsies. You'll be able to rest your pitching staff and won't need to give your roster days off the rest of the year because they'd be built in during trips to TOR.

 

You're only punting on 10 games a year and maybe WOO wins 2 of them?

 

Bloom says he's excited about assembling the next core of sustained attenders.

[jad]

I'm high enough.

 

It's hard to remember clearly, but I don't recall EVER thinking I was high enough.