A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

Whether or not we are satisfied or not giving him 3 years is probably less important than whether he decides he would like to get market value for his services, which obviously will require far more than that.

 

Yes, but I’m talking about him opting out of what is much longer duration contract. I’m which case we end up with him for 2-3 years

[Bellhorn04]

Opt outs, opt ins, team options, player options, mutual options, vesting options...yeesh.

[Old Red]

Opt outs, opt ins, team options, player options, mutual options, vesting options...yeesh.

 

Get rid of all of them.

[Hugh2]

Get rid of all of them.

Nah, player options are great, guy stays 8-9 years instead 6, has a few monster seasons and someone else pays them In their old years.

[moonslav59]

Updated 2023

 

Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions)

 

SP

25.6 Sale

~8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3)

.72 Winckowski (pre Arb)

.72 Crawford (pre Arb)

.72 Mata (pre Arb)

.72 Bello (pre Arb)

minor Seabold (pre Arb)

minor Kelly (pre Arb)

minor Bazardo (pre Arb)

minor Ort (pre Arb)

 

RP

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23 or nontendered)

1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4)

.80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3)

.73 Houck (pre Arb)

.73 Schreiber (pre Arb)

minor Danish (pre Arb)

minor P Valdez (pre Arb)

minor K Ort (pre Arb)

 

C

~1M McGuire (Arb 1 of 3)

.72 Wong (pre Arb)

minor R Hernandez (pre Arb)

 

1B

.72 Hosmer (SD pays the rest)

~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3)

minor Dalbec (pre Arb)

 

2B

1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

.72 E Valdez (miLFA)

 

3B

~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3)

 

SS

23.4 Story

minor Downs (pre Arb)

 

LF

~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3)

minor Duran (pre Arb)

 

CF

10.0 Kike

minor Ja Davis (pre Arb)

 

RF

~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3)

 

Maybe $120M Total

 

That's 36 players with 2 more having options:

13.0 Paxton

6.0 Pham

 

Certainly some will be traded, non-tendered or DFA'd and we have 5-6 Rule 5 prospects we will be protecting:

 

Rafaela

German

Walter

Murphy

W Gonzalez/Paulino/T Ward

 

[notin]

And those will be 2-3 of his best years. I’m all for signing Devers long term, but wouldn’t be completely dissatisfied with only 3 more years of him….better than 1

 

Unless that one year is like this one with his .640 OPS in his last 160 PA…

[moonslav59]

How's this for a blockbuster (BTV accepted):

 

39.7 Casas

15.1 Rafaela

12.1 Yorke

6.6 Wikleman

3.3 Murphy

3.3 Winckowski

 

To PIT for

51.5 Reynolds (3 yrs remaining)

23.4 Bednar (4 yrs)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How's this for a blockbuster (BTV accepted):

 

39.7 Casas

15.1 Rafaela

12.1 Yorke

6.6 Wikleman

3.3 Murphy

3.3 Winckowski

 

To PIT for

51.5 Reynolds (3 yrs remaining)

23.4 Bednar (4 yrs)

 

 

I'd keep Casas and Rafaela. Defense is the first way back to respectability, and both are highly-regarded defenders who could be regulars in Boston a year from now.

 

Reynolds can rake, but is also a below-average centerfielder; we've seen enough of that -- but he'd have to move to left in Fenway.

 

Here's an alternative (also accepted) for Reynolds: Crawford, Duran, Houck and Yorke. That's a pretty good prospect haul for the Pirates for one decent bat.

[moonslav59]

I'd keep Casas and Rafaela. Defense is the first way back to respectability, and both are highly-regarded defenders who could be regulars in Boston a year from now.

 

Reynolds can rake, but is also a below-average centerfielder; we've seen enough of that -- but he'd have to move to left in Fenway.

 

Here's an alternative (also accepted) for Reynolds: Crawford, Duran, Houck and Yorke. That's a pretty good prospect haul for the Pirates for one decent bat.

 

I'd put Reynolds in RF and keep Kike in CF.

 

3 years of Reynolds and 4 from a top closer is worth it, to me.

 

I love Rafaela and also think Casas can become our 1B of the future, but PIT will not hand these guys away. (Houck may be broken.)

 

Also, Casas is not a "highly regarded defender.)

[notin]

Get rid of all of them.

 

Miss the days of the Reserve Clause system before Curt Flood ruined baseball?

[Bellhorn04]

I know one thing the Sox should NOT do, and that's trade Pivetta.

[Hugh2]

I'd put Reynolds in RF and keep Kike in CF.

 

3 years of Reynolds and 4 from a top closer is worth it, to me.

 

I love Rafaela and also think Casas can become our 1B of the future, but PIT will not hand these guys away. (Houck may be broken.)

 

Also, Casas is not a "highly regarded defender.)

 

But you're giving up 6 prospects, taking Casas out of your lineup, and putting Hosmer in. Getting Bednar back is nice, but if I'm giving up that much of our prospect currency I'm getting starting pitching back in return. Pitching was so much more the problem than the offense this year.

 

To me Casas is more untradeable than Mayer, that's not to say that I think he will be better and I'd expect the world back for Mayer and that's not say I'd trade him but I'm very skeptical about trading a guy who you hope to be in your lineup next year and who you also hope to eventually be a middle of the order bat.

[Hugh2]

I know one thing the Sox should NOT do, and that's trade Pivetta.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but when a guy like Pivetta is untradeable.....you know your pitching sucks.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but when a guy like Pivetta is untradeable.....you know your pitching sucks.

 

It's not because of his ability. It's because he takes the ball every 5 days and usually keeps you in the game. Like Porcello, and Wakefield before him. Guys like that have a value that goes beyond their stats.

[Hugh2]

It's not because of his ability. It's because he takes the ball every 5 days and usually keeps you in the game. Like Porcello, and Wakefield before him. Guys like that have a value that goes beyond their stats.

 

I never said he didn't, and that's exactly why he holds value to a team that still has to throw a guy out there every 5th day if they're trading away a pitcher. Sometimes Prospects for star deals also involve other MLB players exchanging teams. If I'm trading a guy like Pivetta, it's because he's packaged up with prospects to get a better pitcher back in return. Of course, everything is relative to the other team's budget and needs...maybe that team needs a first baseman, we could give them a free one.

[notin]

I know one thing the Sox should NOT do, and that's trade Pivetta.

 

Agreed. But Bloom does have one surprise trade every off-season…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also, Casas is not a "highly regarded defender.)

 

He was voted top defensive first baseman in the IL this year.

[notin]

But you're giving up 6 prospects, taking Casas out of your lineup, and putting Hosmer in. Getting Bednar back is nice, but if I'm giving up that much of our prospect currency I'm getting starting pitching back in return. Pitching was so much more the problem than the offense this year.

 

To me Casas is more untradeable than Mayer, that's not to say that I think he will be better and I'd expect the world back for Mayer and that's not say I'd trade him but I'm very skeptical about trading a guy who you hope to be in your lineup next year and who you also hope to eventually be a middle of the order bat.

 

Is that really true? Have you seen the Sox hit this year? They bring new meaning to the phrase “offensive stats”…

[jacksonianmarch]

Realistic view of 2023? Hard to do when the dying quail of 22 is still on the field.

 

I think I predicted a win total in the 70s this year (I did last year too and look where that got me).

 

Sox will have a lot of money to spend but some VERY expensive positions to fill. At least 3 starters. A closer. 2 middle of the order bats. And no major impact prospects on the horizon beyond Casas and he's no surefire guarantee at this point. We shall see how creative Bloom gets

[Hugh2]

Is that really true? Have you seen the Sox hit this year? They bring new meaning to the phrase “offensive stats”…

 

Is that really true? They are 3rd in the AL in runs scored, they are 2nd in runs allowed....as in the second most runs allowed.

 

yes, pitching has been by far their largest problem.

[mvp 78]

Do they retain Xander?

 

JD isn't a middle of the order bat anymore. They could bring him back on cheaper dollars, but they are more likely to split the DH role between several players and using the $$$ elsewhere.

 

"At least" 3 starters? They already have Sale, Paxton and Pivetta under contract. I'd be surprised if they brought in MORE than 3.

 

Do the Sox even value having a "closer"? They really didn't stick anyone with that role at all this year. They could have thrown anyone into that position on day one and chose not to. Should they have? Probably.

[mvp 78]

Is that really true? They are 3rd in the AL in runs scored, they are 2nd in runs allowed....as in the second most runs allowed.

 

yes, pitching has been by far their largest problem.

 

And that's with injuries to Story, Kiké and lengthy runs of JBJ and Plawecki.

[jacksonianmarch]

Do they retain Xander?

 

JD isn't a middle of the order bat anymore. They could bring him back on cheaper dollars, but they are more likely to split the DH role between several players and using the $$$ elsewhere.

 

"At least" 3 starters? They already have Sale, Paxton and Pivetta under contract. I'd be surprised if they brought in MORE than 3.

 

Do the Sox even value having a "closer"? They really didn't stick anyone with that role at all this year. They could have thrown anyone into that position on day one and chose not to. Should they have? Probably.

 

Did you pencil in Sale and Paxton into a rotation and not giggle or cry a little bit? Sale is the king of failed promises. Paxton gets hurt if you look at him cross eyed. They need reliable pitching, and the only guy who has been reliable is Pivetta. The rest are all FAs

[mvp 78]

Did you pencil in Sale and Paxton into a rotation and not giggle or cry a little bit? Sale is the king of failed promises. Paxton gets hurt if you look at him cross eyed. They need reliable pitching, and the only guy who has been reliable is Pivetta. The rest are all FAs

 

It wasn't my plan. It's Bloom's to figure out. I wouldn't have signed Paxton at all. He makes Sale look like Lou Gehrig. They would be on the hole for $35M for them next season. I do remember you being staunchly pro-Paxton when he was in the pinstripes though. What changed?

 

Is Bloom really going to have 7-8 veteran starting pitchers on the payroll? Is that the right way to build a roster? He's lucky that Pivetta is so cheap. I just can't see him going the FA route again. We saw it with the injuries this year. When you have multiple 30+ year old guys, expect lots of IL time.

[Hugh2]

They always say you can never have enough pitching. I think Sales arm is fine and his recent rash of injuries has been flukier, they may like the medicals on Paxton too, still you have to figure you only get 32 starts between those guys, if you get more awesome. I think they can easily fill the 5th hole with Bello/Cutter+

 

3 is a stretch, but I think the Sox need to bring in two guys one of which may be Nate or Wacha.

[moonslav59]

Realistic view of 2023? Hard to do when the dying quail of 22 is still on the field.

 

I think I predicted a win total in the 70s this year (I did last year too and look where that got me).

 

Sox will have a lot of money to spend but some VERY expensive positions to fill. At least 3 starters. A closer. 2 middle of the order bats. And no major impact prospects on the horizon beyond Casas and he's no surefire guarantee at this point. We shall see how creative Bloom gets

 

If Bloom can convince himself, or be pushed, to trade one or two good prospects to fill one slot, nicely, I think he caan do it within a budget of staying near the tax line or going over by less than $20M. Replacing the 2021 JD & Nate will not be hard. Replacing Bogey and Wacha will. I'd offer Wacha a QO.

 

I'd count Sale & Paxton as 1 SP'er.

SP

1. _______

2. Sale/Paxton

3. Wacha

4. __trade__

5. Pivetta

6. Bello

 

RP

1. Houck

2. Whitlock

3. ___FA___

4. Schreiber

5. Barnes

6. Taylor

7. Crawford

8. (Bello) German/Kelly/Danish/Wink/Murphy/Walter/Mata

 

C

McGuire & Wong

 

1B

Casas & Hosmer

 

2B

___FA___ or Arroyo/E Valdez

 

SS

Story

 

3B

Devers

 

LF

Dugo & Pham

 

CF

Kike

 

RF

___FA___ or Dugo & Ref

 

DH

Pham-Ref/Hosmer-Casas (Dalbec & Cordero in AAA)

or get a RF/DH type or even a 1B/DH type

 

With $70-90M to spend, this is not a deep stretch.

 

 

[notin]

Do they retain Xander?

 

JD isn't a middle of the order bat anymore. They could bring him back on cheaper dollars, but they are more likely to split the DH role between several players and using the $$$ elsewhere.

 

"At least" 3 starters? They already have Sale, Paxton and Pivetta under contract. I'd be surprised if they brought in MORE than 3.

 

Do the Sox even value having a "closer"? They really didn't stick anyone with that role at all this year. They could have thrown anyone into that position on day one and chose not to. Should they have? Probably.

 

 

I’m thinking Bogaerts staying looks more likely with every passing day.

 

But not for any good reason. I have to wonder if Devers is playing his way on to the trade market. Rafael has one year left, wants an extension of at least $270mill, and has posted a .547 OPS since August 3rd spanning about 140 PA (roughly 1/4 if a season). That’s not a healthy combination for getting an extension. (Jarren Duran has a higher OPS in that timeframe and was demoted for it.)

 

If they deal Devers, they do need to keep someone for a few reasons…

[mvp 78]

They always say you can never have enough pitching. I think Sales arm is fine and his recent rash of injuries has been flukier, they may like the medicals on Paxton too, still you have to figure you only get 32 starts between those guys, if you get more awesome. I think they can easily fill the 5th hole with Bello/Cutter+

 

3 is a stretch, but I think the Sox need to bring in two guys one of which may be Nate or Wacha.

 

I think that seems to be the more likely scenario.

 

Plus, the FA market this offseason doesn't seem that great IMO.

[mvp 78]

I’m thinking Bogaerts staying looks more likely with every passing day.

 

But not for any good reason. I have to wonder if Devers is playing his way on to the trade market. Rafael has one year left, wants an extension of at least $270mill, and has posted a .547 OPS since August 3rd spanning about 140 PA (roughly 1/4 if a season). That’s not a healthy combination for getting an extension. (Jarren Duran has a higher OPS in that timeframe and was demoted for it.)

 

If they deal Devers, they do need to keep someone for a few reasons…

 

Isn't this more likely due to injury than just Devers not being good anymore? I mean, the timeframe you are picking is basically when he came off the IL...

[moonslav59]

They always say you can never have enough pitching. I think Sales arm is fine and his recent rash of injuries has been flukier, they may like the medicals on Paxton too, still you have to figure you only get 32 starts between those guys, if you get more awesome. I think they can easily fill the 5th hole with Bello/Cutter+

 

3 is a stretch, but I think the Sox need to bring in two guys one of which may be Nate or Wacha.

 

Agreed.

 

I think we trade for one and offer Wacha and/or Nate a QO. (If both take it, I think we still trade for a starter amd commit to Whit & Houck in the pen. Maybe use Bello in the pen, too.

 

1. Sale/Paxton

2. Wacha

3. __Trade__

4. Nate

5. Pivetta