A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[dgalehouse]

Then stay off the 2023 thread.

 

You can’t make post after post after post about how awful this team is and how the GM should be fired for not winning a WS in his first three years, and then freak out whenever some suggests a trade, too.

 

Is that a direct order?

[moonslav59]

Is that a direct order?

 

I think he was just hoping you were true to your word about getting "out of here."

[dgalehouse]

I think he was just hoping you were true to your word about getting "out of here."

 

You are his partner. Maybe you should talk to him about that temper.

[notin]

I don’t think not winning a WS was a complaint, but being in last place in the Div with a LOSING record was. As usual a little exaggeration goes a long way.

 

There’s a thread titled “Fire Bloom”. Am I exaggerating that?

[moonslav59]

You are his partner. Maybe you should talk to him about that temper.

 

What temper?

 

(BTW, another example of passive aggressive BS on the "partner" thing, while feigning innocence. You don't fool anyone.)

[Old Red]

There’s a thread titled “Fire Bloom”. Am I exaggerating that?

 

Who started it? Yes you are exaggerating. Who said to fire Bloom, because he hasn’t won a WS yet?

[moonslav59]

Here who TOR and BAL have to play:

 

BAL

10 TOR

7 BOS

3 @ NYY

4 HOU

3 DET

2 @ WSH

 

TOR

10 BAL

9 TBR

3 BOS

3 NYY

3 @ TEX

2 @ PHI

 

I'm not saying we have a chance, but think about this: if TOR & BAL go 5-5 vs each other and we win those 10 days, we gain 5 on each. Then, we beat them head-to head. Easy, right?

 

[dgalehouse]

What temper?

 

(BTW, another example of passive aggressive BS on the "partner" thing, while feigning innocence. You don't fool anyone.)

 

Well, the guy is telling me to stay off threads. Dropping f bombs . He seems to be very upset lately. Why? I am not trying to fool anyone. I think that Bloom is not doing a very good job . A lot of Sox fans feel that way. For some reason , that offends some people.

[dgalehouse]

Here who TOR and BAL have to play:

 

BAL

10 TOR

7 BOS

3 @ NYY

4 HOU

3 DET

2 @ WSH

 

TOR

10 BAL

9 TBR

3 BOS

3 NYY

3 @ TEX

2 @ PHI

 

I'm not saying we have a chance, but think about this: if TOR & BAL go 5-5 vs each other and we win those 10 days, we gain 5 on each. Then, we beat them head-to head. Easy, right?

 

 

You are up and down like a yo-yo. One day you are giving up. Two days later you are back on board. I have never given up hope . Jump in the lifeboat or go down with the ship. Make up your mind.

[Larry Cook]

Any chance eovaldi gets back soon?

[notin]

Who started it? Yes you are exaggerating. Who said to fire Bloom, because he hasn’t won a WS yet?

 

You’re kidding right?

 

That’s actually tha Patient Reason to fire Bloom. If that’s not why, then people are demanding Bloom be fired for one injury-plagued .500-ish season that happened one year after going to the ALCS. Is that really your defense?

 

You’d be better off saying it was the No titles in 3 years thing…

[Old Red]

You’re kidding right?

 

That’s actually tha Patient Reason to fire Bloom. If that’s not why, then people are demanding Bloom be fired for one injury-plagued .500-ish season that happened one year after going to the ALCS. Is that really your defense?

 

You’d be better off saying it was the No titles in 3 years thing…

 

I’ve given my reasons plenty of times, and like I said this subject has been hashed over 10,000 times already. Either your with him, or your against him, and nobody is changing anyones mind.

[moonslav59]

You are up and down like a yo-yo. One day you are giving up. Two days later you are back on board. I have never given up hope . Jump in the lifeboat or go down with the ship. Make up your mind.

 

Wrong, again.

 

The GREEN means sarcasm.

[Larry Cook]

What free agent starting pitcher(s) does Hang’em Chaim sign this offseason?

 

2023 starters

 

Sale - bruises easier than a banana.

Pivetta - mediocre at best

Bello - future star. How long until he puts it all together?

Crawford - when he is healthy and has command and control, he is good. But when he doesn’t, it gets ugly!

Winkowski - no margin for error as his stuff is ordinary.

Seabold - not an mlb starting pitcher, but could really excel in the bullpen.

Mata - electric stuff, but needs more seasoning at Worcester next season.

 

We need two free agent starters. Should we sign two of wacha, eovaldi, manea, syndergard, odorizzi?

[moonslav59]

What free agent starting pitcher(s) does Hang’em Chaim sign this offseason?

 

2023 starters

 

Sale - bruises easier than a banana.

Pivetta - mediocre at best

Bello - future star. How long until he puts it all together?

Crawford - when he is healthy and has command and control, he is good. But when he doesn’t, it gets ugly!

Winkowski - no margin for error as his stuff is ordinary.

Seabold - not an mlb starting pitcher, but could really excel in the bullpen.

Mata - electric stuff, but needs more seasoning at Worcester next season.

 

We need two free agent starters. Should we sign two of wacha, eovaldi, manea, syndergard, odorizzi?

 

Add Paxton and I hope Wacha on a QO.

[Nick]

I'm guessing Moon is kidding about trading away Casas. That's not in Bloom's DNA.

 

Simple thing to do is to bring back the left side of infield

At most that will cost $20M. Its affordable.

 

Money can come out of JD' s expiring contract. DH role can from Hosmer.

 

Bring back Kike. He would be a valuable infield backup in addition to playing solid center field D.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I'm guessing Moon is kidding about trading away Casas. That's not in Bloom's DNA.

 

moon would trade Casas, Mayer and his (moon's) dog if it brought back a cost-controlled TOTR starter and something else of value.

[notin]

I'm guessing Moon is kidding about trading away Casas. That's not in Bloom's DNA.

 

Simple thing to do is to bring back the left side of infield

At most that will cost $20M. Its affordable.

 

Money can come out of JD' s expiring contract. DH role can from Hosmer (?).

 

Moon is hoping to add starting pitching. In order to do so, one method is to trade Casas.

 

Casas could at least bring back something good, unlike Hosmer.

 

I do not like the idea of Hosmer at DH. Mostly because he isn’t much of a hitter…

Edited September 5, 2022 by notin

[notin]

moon would trade Casas, Mayer and his (moon's) dog if it brought back a cost-controlled TOTR starter and something else of value.

 

I’d trade his (moon’s) dog…

[Nick]

Let's go with what we know.

 

Starting luxury tax payroll for 2022 was $242M. Tax limit is $232M for 2023. Say that's what Henry wants for 2023 budget.

 

Comparing apples to apples (this is for Moon), Sox have 16 expiring contracts (some have already been traded away) totaling $118M, including Price's contract. To get in line with 2023 tax limit, we have $109M to spend for 2023.

 

Let's get the big elephants out of the way.

 

Devers will cost us $10M, minimum, Xander say $10M maximum, and Whitlock's new contract will give us delta of $4M. Assuming Pham and Sox agree on mutual option, that's another $6M. That's total of $30M, leaving us with $79M to spend.

 

With that what we have is as follows

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Xander

3B Devers

DH Hosmer

LF Pham (mutual option for $6M picked up)

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

 

Would you spend any more to upgrade this lineup? Or spend it all on pitching? Remember that we rank 14th in team ERA in AL while we are second in runs scored.

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Pivetta

SP3 Bello

SP4 Whitlock

SP5 Winckowski

 

Bullpen

RP Barnes

RP Houck

RP Schrieber

RP

RP

RP

RP

RP

 

IF I'm Henry, I'd want to know how Bloom is going to fill these openings before I open up my wallet. Come on folks, fill out the roster within the budget. Then you can go to Henry and say with another $30M, we can sign an ace and increase our chances of winning the world series.

 

Bottom line is other than Bello and Casas, who came on aboard within last month, what youngster has made a case that our farm is producing? Are we still couple of years away?

Edited September 5, 2022 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

The first thing I would say Nick, is that I don't think Bloom would tell Henry 2023 is the year to go all in to win a ring. But it's definitely a year to win 92+ games and have a chance at a ring. So we probably aren't making a run at deGrom. Maybe his old friend Syndergaard, though.

[Hugh2]

I'm guessing Moon is kidding about trading away Casas. That's not in Bloom's DNA.

 

Simple thing to do is to bring back the left side of infield

At most that will cost $20M. Its affordable.

 

Money can come out of JD' s expiring contract. DH role can from Hosmer.

 

Bring back Kike. He would be a valuable infield backup in addition to playing solid center field D.

 

No he’s not. He had the right ideal though, I think if you want to add quality, cost controller front line pitching the trade market is the way to go. Otherwise you’re spending $200 million plus on a guy who’s 30+ looking to break down. There seems to be injury risk with every pitcher nowadays, but Casas seems like the kind of Prospect you keep, now If Bobby Dalbec turned out better then Casas may be the guy you trade for pitching.

[Nick]

The first thing I would say Nick, is that I don't think Bloom would tell Henry 2023 is the year to go all in to win a ring. But it's definitely a year to win 92+ games and have a chance at a ring. So we probably aren't making a run at deGrom. Maybe his old friend Syndergaard, though.

 

Life would be easier if we had Dodger's payroll. But I guess that's true for 29 teams.

[Maxbialystock]

Let's go with what we know.

 

Starting luxury tax payroll for 2022 was $242M. Tax limit is $232M for 2023. Say that's what Henry wants for 2023 budget.

 

Comparing apples to apples (this is for Moon), Sox have 16 expiring contracts (some have already been traded away) totaling $118M, including Price's contract. To get in line with 2023 tax limit, we have $109M to spend for 2023.

 

Let's get the big elephants out of the way.

 

Devers will cost us $10M, minimum, Xander say $10M maximum, and Whitlock's new contract will give us delta of $4M. Assuming Pham and Sox agree on mutual option, that's another $6M. That's total of $30M, leaving us with $79M to spend.

 

With that what we have is as follows

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Xander

3B Devers

DH Hosmer

LF Pham (mutual option for $6M picked up)

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

 

Would you spend any more to upgrade this lineup? Or spend it all on pitching? Remember that we rank 14th in team ERA in AL while we are second in runs scored.

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Pivetta

SP3 Bello

SP4 Whitlock

SP5 Winckowski

 

Bullpen

RP Barnes

RP Houck

RP Schrieber

RP

RP

RP

RP

RP

 

IF I'm Henry, I'd want to know how Bloom is going to fill these openings before I open up my wallet. Come on folks, fill out the roster within the budget. Then you can go to Henry and say with another $30M, we can sign an ace and increase our chances of winning the world series.

 

Bottom line is other than Bello and Casas, who came on aboard within last month, what youngster has made a case that our farm is producing? Are we still couple of years away?

 

An excellent post with very accessible language and numbers. I think Moon has said $80M will be available and $100 at the outside. So you two track on money available.

 

However, you missed completely on Bogey and Devers by implying it's all about a one year pay raise. Both want big and long-term, which is exactly what DD gave Price and Sale and the Dodgers gave Mookie Betts ($365M guaranteed for 12 years).

 

Bogey turns 30 in 3 weeks, so I'm guessing what he wants is 7 x $25M=$175M, guaranteed.

 

Raffy turns 26 on Oct 24, so he is going to want at least 10 years, but more likely the 12 years Mookie got. And my guess is his agent is asking for $30M/year for 12 years--$300M, guaranteed.

 

And, frankly, I'm inclined to agree with John Henry and/or Chaim Bloom. Big and long-term contracts which are guaranteed are very risky.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing Moon is kidding about trading away Casas. That's not in Bloom's DNA.

 

Simple thing to do is to bring back the left side of infield

At most that will cost $20M. Its affordable.

 

Money can come out of JD' s expiring contract. DH role can from Hosmer.

 

Bring back Kike. He would be a valuable infield backup in addition to playing solid center field D.

 

1. When I suggest a possible trade, I'm not saying Bloom would do it.

2. It is a suggested idea of a trade. (I make some trades on BTV that I don't even click the like button on for the Sox.)

3. Suggesting trading a player does not mean I don't want the player or feel we don't need him. It could mean I think we gain more at the position we trade for than we lose at the position we trade from. (I don't think a Hosmer-Arroyo-Dalbec: choose 2, is worse than out CF, RF, 2B/SS and DH positions look, right now for 2023. Suggesting we trade Casas for an ace like Lopez is actually showing just how much I value Casas.

 

In the end, I doubt we trade Casas, Mayer, Bello, Rafaela or Bleis, and we aren't getting an ace with 5 of anyone else.

 

Mayer is pretty close to being the most untouchable player in our system, to me.

 

One note: I'm very much in favor of a continuing approach of building up the farm, and generally am against trading a whole lot of prospects to fill several holes, but I'm fine with one every now and then, and we've b een adding so much to the farm through trades, over the last 3 years, that I'm thinking the timing might be right for one major farm trade.

 

It's silly to think anyone here might say no to a Casas (and even adding Yorke) for Alcantar. Is that being anti-Casas or saying he's worth double what he really is?

[notin]

I’ve given my reasons plenty of times, and like I said this subject has been hashed over 10,000 times already. Either your with him, or your against him, and nobody is changing anyones mind.

 

Well if you think it’s been hacked over too many times, why do you keep responding?

[notin]

Is that a direct order?

 

No. I don’t give anyone orders.

 

It just felt like obvious advice…

[moonslav59]

Moon is hoping to add starting pitching. In order to do so, one method is to trade Casas.

 

Casas could at least bring back something good, unlike Hosmer.

 

I do not like the idea of Hosmer at DH. Mostly because he isn’t much of a hitter…

 

He's not much of a fielder, either, but he's better than Dalbec-Cordero, and as a platoon, actually pretty decent.

 

I would not DH him. I don't think wasting 2 roster spots on a Dalbec-Cordero DH platoon should even be considered. Throw Arroyo into the mix at 1B and DH, and I still don't want 4 roster slots going to Hosmer, Dalbec, Cordero (who can try to play OF, too) and Arroyo (who can play other IF slots when healthy.)

 

I really like Casas, and do see a big need for him at 1B. BTW, he's currently not a great and maybe not even a good defensive 1Bman. Read between the normally rose-colored soxprospects.coms assessment of his defense:

 

Confident picking out throws in the dirt. Soft hands and surprisingly fluid actions. Moves well enough for first base. Potential solid-average defender there. Drafted as a third baseman, but footwork was choppy, he lacked range, and looked awkward fielding the ball there given his size.

 

I fully expect Casas to be our cost-controlled, capable 1Bman for the next few years. He won't be platooned, unless he proves to need it. We may go "light" at DH, or sign someone to play RF with Refsnyder, who can also DH. We may keep one from Dalbec and Cordero on the 26, but not both, and I think both still have options remaining. I think Arroyo has earned a 26 man slot, if healthy and maybe Enmanuel Valdez might bump Dalbec or Cordero off the 26.

 

Our need in CF is the clearest.

 

To me, 2B or SS is second among everyday player needs.

 

RF/DH might be third.

 

I think we may stay put at catcher.

 

1B is the last possible need area without Casas, but with him is not a n eed area at all. I would not sign a 1B/DH type. I'd sign a RF/DF type.

[notin]

An excellent post with very accessible language and numbers. I think Moon has said $80M will be available and $100 at the outside. So you two track on money available.

 

However, you missed completely on Bogey and Devers by implying it's all about a one year pay raise. Both want big and long-term, which is exactly what DD gave Price and Sale and the Dodgers gave Mookie Betts ($365M guaranteed for 12 years).

 

Bogey turns 30 in 3 weeks, so I'm guessing what he wants is 7 x $25M=$175M, guaranteed.

 

Raffy turns 26 on Oct 24, so he is going to want at least 10 years, but more likely the 12 years Mookie got. And my guess is his agent is asking for $30M/year for 12 years--$300M, guaranteed.

 

And, frankly, I'm inclined to agree with John Henry and/or Chaim Bloom. Big and long-term contracts which are guaranteed are very risky.

 

 

It’s hard to envision the Sox extending both.

 

Devers is younger and the better hitter, but also will be much more expensive.

 

Bogaerts plays the more premium position. But should be significantly cheaper.

 

Both figure to sign until at least age 36. Devers probably becomes a 1b/DH in a few years. Bogaerts figures to move off SS in a couple years, possibly to 3b but it could be anywhere from 1b to LF.

 

I imagine most people sign Devers, given the choice. But is that the right way to go?

[jgar658]

My proposal:

 

Kike: infield/outfield

Arroyo: infield/outfield

 

Verdugo OF

Refsnyder, OF, DH

Pham, Hosmer DH plus playing time.

 

Devers 3rd

X man. ss

 

McGuire catching, bring Vaz next year

 

Casas 1b

Story 2nd, SS

 

Duran bench, pinch runner

 

Starting pitchers

 

Whitlock

Bello

Houck

Wacha

Sales

Pivetta

et,al

 

Spend money on relievers. That is where the Red Sox are losing games.