A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

We have had two years of so-so to bad fielding 1st basemen until we lucked out in signing Hosmer. None of our 1st basemen have been reliable hitters, when 1st is usually considered a position that generates offense. It appears that Bloom has had difficulty finding a 1st baseman so I would get a look at Casas now with the hope he is the future for us at the position and at low cost at that.

 

I'm not against the idea, but to me, if we have to part with one of our highest ranked prospects, I would not choose Mayer or Bello.

 

I'm not sure Yorke and others high on this list are really this valuable:

 

BTV

55.4 Mayer

39.7 Casas

26.9 Bello

15.1 Rafaela (I'd keep him over Casas, too. He can play CF and 2B.)

12.1 Yorke

8.7 Bleis (a keeper, IMO)

8.7 Romero

7.2 Duran (over valued, here, IMO)

6.6 Wikelman

6.5 Coffey

5.6 Lugo (We need 2B/SS more than 1B)

5.6 Walter

5.0 Jordan

 

We might keep all these guys and just buy our way to filling slots.

[moonslav59]

Based on recent reports, the Red Sox and the industry may place Bleis' value a lot higher on this list. How much trade value does someone literally have who is deemed "untouchable"?

 

Well, I'd rather trade Casas than Bleis, so that's about where my head is.

[harmony]

Based on recent reports, the Red Sox and the industry may place Bleis' value a lot higher on this list. How much trade value does someone literally have who is deemed "untouchable"?

Many franchises have a young prospect such as Miguel Bleis whose stock has risen this year. Projections remain difficult for distant 18-year-olds.

Edited August 28, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Many franchises have a young prospect such as Miguel Bleis whose stock has risen this year. Projections remain difficult for distant 18-year-olds.

 

Indeed. The hit or miss factor is much higher for 17-18 year olds.

 

He may end up never even reaching AAA, but it will take years to find out.

[harmony]

Indeed. The hit or miss factor is much higher for 17-18 year olds.

 

He may end up never even reaching AAA, but it will take years to find out.

Seattle's comp for Miguel Bleis is outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, who is two months older than Bleis but who has already advanced to Single A:

Mariners Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

Red Sox Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal009gab

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bleis-000mig

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gabriel-gonzalez/sa3015723/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miguel-bleis/sa3016834/stats?position=OF

[moonslav59]

I'll take a stab at providing a positional depth chart for 2023, assuming no free agents are re-signed.

 

In other words, this is the foundation of the 2023 roster that will certainly be added to... (plus farm players not likely to be part of the 2023 ML club)

 

C: McGuire, Wong, RHernandez (Marrero/Cottam/Hickey)

1B: Hosmer, Casas, Dalbec, Cordero (Kavadas/Jordan)

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez, Downs (EValdez/Rafaela/Koss/Hamilton/Yorke/Bonaci)

SS: (Story), Arroyo, Downs (Lugo/Mayer/Romero)

3B: Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo (Koss/Binelas/Paulino/Coffey)

LF: Verdugp, Pham, Cordero, Duran (Granberg/McDonough/Sikes/Anthony)

CF: Ja, Davis (Rafaela/Bleis)

RF: (Verdugo), Refsnyder, WAbreu (Jimenez)

DH: Dalbec, Cordero, EValdez, Hosmer, Arroyo, EValdez, Wong (Kavadas)

 

SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Seabold, TWard (Drohan/Gonzalez/Uberstine/Song/Perales)

SP/RP: Whitlock, Winckowski, Murphy, Santos

RP: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, German, Sawamura, Davis, Brasier, Danish

Ort, Bastardo, DHern, Feltman, Politi, Thompson, Shugart (Wallace/Fernandez/Encarnacion)

 

[oldtimer]

I'll take a stab at providing a positional depth chart for 2023, assuming no free agents are re-signed.

 

In other words, this is the foundation of the 2023 roster that will certainly be added to... (plus farm players not likely to be part of the 2023 ML club)

 

C: McGuire, Wong, RHernandez (Marrero/Cottam/Hickey)

1B: Hosmer, Casas, Dalbec, Cordero (Kavadas/Jordan)

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez, Downs (EValdez/Rafaela/Koss/Hamilton/Yorke/Bonaci)

SS: (Story), Arroyo, Downs (Lugo/Mayer/Romero)

3B: Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo (Koss/Binelas/Paulino/Coffey)

LF: Verdugp, Pham, Cordero, Duran (Granberg/McDonough/Sikes/Anthony)

CF: Ja, Davis (Rafaela/Bleis)

RF: (Verdugo), Refsnyder, WAbreu (Jimenez)

DH: Dalbec, Cordero, EValdez, Hosmer, Arroyo, EValdez, Wong (Kavadas)

 

SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Seabold, TWard (Drohan/Gonzalez/Uberstine/Song/Perales)

SP/RP: Whitlock, Winckowski, Murphy, Santos

RP: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, German, Sawamura, Davis, Brasier, Danish

Ort, Bastardo, DHern, Feltman, Politi, Thompson, Shugart (Wallace/Fernandez/Encarnacion)

 

 

With that depth chart how many games do you predict the Sox could win?

[cp176]

Just left Portland after watching the Sea Dogs. Haven't been for a few years. Overall I think they have a very athletic group of players. They look and act like athletes. Great looking fitness levels overall. Likely doesn't mean much to most but I like to watch athletes compete. Wilson and Hamilton are two of the fastest players I think that I have seen down there. Picture perfect day to watch a good team win a good game.

[moonslav59]

With that depth chart how many games do you predict the Sox could win?

 

It’s good depth but shy on quality and high quality.

 

A couple years ago our 40 man roster was as shallow as I’d seen in decades.

 

I have no idea on win totals until I see how many of the slots are added to, so these guys are depth not starters.

[oldtimer]

It’s good depth but shy on quality and high quality.

 

A couple years ago our 40 man roster was as shallow as I’d seen in decades.

 

I have no idea on win totals until I see how many of the slots are added to, so these guys are depth not starters.

Okay, because my take is that we need to make impact changes if we expect to become more competitive. I will give Bloom one more year to do that before writing him off. Some of your depth players should be DFA'd or traded. Guys like Downs, Duran, and Cordero/Dalbec need to be replaced.

[jad]

Just left Portland after watching the Sea Dogs. Haven't been for a few years. Overall I think they have a very athletic group of players. They look and act like athletes. Great looking fitness levels overall. Likely doesn't mean much to most but I like to watch athletes compete. Wilson and Hamilton are two of the fastest players I think that I have seen down there. Picture perfect day to watch a good team win a good game.

 

What shocks me about Portland is discovering that even garden-variety AA pitchers can throw 95! I used to love MiLB because there would be lots of hitting, and fielding was always an adventure. That seems no longer to be the case.

[moonslav59]

Okay, because my take is that we need to make impact changes if we expect to become more competitive. I will give Bloom one more year to do that before writing him off. Some of your depth players should be DFA'd or traded. Guys like Downs, Duran, and Cordero/Dalbec need to be replaced.

 

As minor league depth, I'd say these guys might be as good as most other team's bottom of the 40, but assuming we add 7-8 new players, plus the 6-7 Rule 5 guys, I'm thinking some of the 4 you listed will probably be traded. (Also, Davis, Sawamura, Brasier and DHern)

[jacksonianmarch]

Casas is a guy I would NOT trade, especially in lieu of an 18 yr old buried deep in the farm. He is your starting 1b next year and the best barometer of your rebuild. Especially when the sox deal off Devers

[moonslav59]

Unless traded, these players will be back, next year:

 

Barnes

Sale

Devers

Taylor (assuming healthy)

Verdugo

Pivetta

Arroyo

Houck

Mata

Wong

Whitlock

RHernandez

Crawford

Winckowski

Bello

Paxton (option)

Story

Schreiber

Refsnyder

McGuire

Pham (option)

Hosmer

Casas (Rule 5)

German (Rule 5)

Gonzalez (Rule 5)

Murphy (Rule 5)

Paulino (Rule 5)

Rafaela (Rule 5)

Walter (Rule 5)

E Valdez (MiFA)

That's only 30 out of 40 needed.

 

Possible Returnees, Traded or DFA'd?

DHern

Dalbec

Seabold

Downs

Duran

Danish

Cordero

Ort

Ja Davis

 

Borderline Rule 5 Protectees/Lost to Rule 5 (likely will not be selected.)

WAbreu

BBonaci

KCottam

DFeltman

DGranberg

DHamilton

GJimenez

CKoss

NNorthcut

VSantos

NSogard

NSong

JThompson

JWallace

TWard

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Casas is a guy I would NOT trade, especially in lieu of an 18 yr old buried deep in the farm. He is your starting 1b next year and the best barometer of your rebuild. Especially when the sox deal off Devers

 

And I try to talk you up as a nice Yankee fan.

[Hugh2]

Seattle's comp for Miguel Bleis is outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, who is two months older than Bleis but who has already advanced to Single A:

Mariners Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

Red Sox Top Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal009gab

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bleis-000mig

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gabriel-gonzalez/sa3015723/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miguel-bleis/sa3016834/stats?position=OF

 

Both grade out as a 50 but scouts indicates Bleis has a stronger arm, and more power potential.

[harmony]

Behind a paywall, columnist Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offers a lengthy analysis of the Red Sox future:

 

https://theathletic.com/3555165/2022/09/01/boston-red-sox-offseason-free-agency/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Behind a paywall, columnist Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offers a lengthy analysis of the Red Sox future:

 

https://theathletic.com/3555165/2022/09/01/boston-red-sox-offseason-free-agency/

 

Couldn't access; what are Ken's big takes?

[moonslav59]

Couldn't access; what are Ken's big takes?

 

I'm curious, too.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted this trade as a minor overpay by the Sox:

 

Casas, Yorke, Wikelman & RHern

to MIA

Lopez, Luzardo & Stallings (the catcher Bloom tried to trade for, last winter)

 

Sign: Abreu 1B (1-2 years), Swanson SS (3-5 years), Nimmo CF/RF (5-6 years), Kike (3 yrs), Fulmer (3 yrs) & Rogers (3 yrs)

 

SP1 Lopez

SP2 Sale

SP3 Paxton (Bello)

SP4 Luzardo

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Houck

Relief Ace Whitlock

Set Up Fulmer

Set Up Rogers

Set Up Schreiber

RP6 Barnes

RP7 Taylor (Crawford, Wink, Murphy, Seabold, Kelly)

RP8 German

 

1. R Swanson SS

2. L Nimmo RF

3. R Story 2B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R J Abreu 1B

6. L Verdugo LF

7. R Kike CF

8. L Cordero/R Arroyo/ R Dalbec/L E Valdez (Bench)

9. R Stallings C/L McGuire C

 

I'm not sure how much this puts us over the tax line, and if we extend Devers, we'll be looking at a tight budget beyond 2023, unless we can get Abreu to sign a 1 year deal. (We lose Barnes after 2023.)

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

BTV accepted this trade as a minor overpay by the Sox:

 

Casas, Yorke, Wikelman & RHern

to MIA

Lopez, Luzardo & Stallings (the catcher Bloom tried to trade for, last winter)

 

Sign: Abreu 1B (1-2 years), Swanson SS (3-5 years), Nimmo CF/RF (5-6 years), Kike (3 yrs), Fulmer (3 yrs) & Rogers (3 yrs)

 

SP1 Lopez

SP2 Sale

SP3 Paxton (Bello)

SP4 Luzardo

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Houck

Relief Ace Whitlock

Set Up Fulmer

Set Up Rogers

Set Up Schreiber

RP6 Barnes

RP7 Taylor (Crawford, Wink, Murphy, Seabold, Kelly)

RP8 German

 

1. R Swanson SS

2. L Nimmo RF

3. R Story 2B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R J Abreu 1B

6. L Verdugo LF

7. R Kike CF

8. L Cordero/R Arroyo/ R Dalbec/L E Valdez (Bench)

9. R Stallings C/L McGuire C

 

I'm not sure how much this puts us over the tax line, and if we extend Devers, we'll be looking at a tight budget beyond 2023, unless we can get Abreu to sign a 1 year deal. (We lose Barnes after 2023.)

 

 

So you don't see Wacha returning next season? A 10-1 pitcher on this club should be a re-signing priority, imho.

[moonslav59]

So you don't see Wacha returning next season? A 10-1 pitcher on this club should be a re-signing priority, imho.

 

I'd offer him a QO. I actually forgot to add him, but I added Abreu from my last suggested plan.

 

Maybe QO Wacha and don't ask for Luzardo in the trade, and take back Yorke.

[Bellhorn04]

Couldn't access; what are Ken's big takes?

 

I'm curious, too.

 

I'm a subscriber. I'll copy and paste some of it when I get a chance.

[moonslav59]

I'm a subscriber. I'll copy and paste some of it when I get a chance.

 

Thanks. I think harmony discourages copying and pasting copyrighted material to a large extent.

[Maxbialystock]

BTV accepted this trade as a minor overpay by the Sox:

 

Casas, Yorke, Wikelman & RHern

to MIA

Lopez, Luzardo & Stallings (the catcher Bloom tried to trade for, last winter)

 

Sign: Abreu 1B (1-2 years), Swanson SS (3-5 years), Nimmo CF/RF (5-6 years), Kike (3 yrs), Fulmer (3 yrs) & Rogers (3 yrs)

 

SP1 Lopez

SP2 Sale

SP3 Paxton (Bello)

SP4 Luzardo

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Houck

Relief Ace Whitlock

Set Up Fulmer

Set Up Rogers

Set Up Schreiber

RP6 Barnes

RP7 Taylor (Crawford, Wink, Murphy, Seabold, Kelly)

RP8 German

 

1. R Swanson SS

2. L Nimmo RF

3. R Story 2B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R J Abreu 1B

6. L Verdugo LF

7. R Kike CF

8. L Cordero/R Arroyo/ R Dalbec/L E Valdez (Bench)

9. R Stallings C/L McGuire C

 

I'm not sure how much this puts us over the tax line, and if we extend Devers, we'll be looking at a tight budget beyond 2023, unless we can get Abreu to sign a 1 year deal. (We lose Barnes after 2023.)

 

 

Rod Serling would love this--straight out of the twilight zone.

 

In other words, you blew my mind.

[moonslav59]

Rod Serling would love this--straight out of the twilight zone.

 

In other words, you blew my mind.

 

This might cost $70-90M a year. I have us at about $60M below the lux line. It might not be all that far-fetched, but in a week FA market, maybe some of these guys will see their number bid up so high, Bloom will walk away.

[Bellhorn04]

Thanks. I think harmony discourages copying and pasting copyrighted material to a large extent.

 

OK, I have read Rosenthal's piece. It's solid, but there are no earth-shaking revelations or ideas. In fact, it closely echoes many of the points we've talked about here.

 

Here are the opening paragraphs:

 

Let’s start by giving the Red Sox something they do not necessarily deserve: The benefit of the doubt.

 

Let’s account for the unfortunate timing of many of their injuries. Let’s excuse the unexpected collapses of three young players — first baseman Bobby Dalbec, center fielder Jarren Duran and infielder Jeter Downs. Let’s concede the 2022 season is turning out almost the opposite of ’21, when the Sox came within two games of reaching the World Series. A near worst-case scenario instead of a best-case.

 

Fear not, kind, patient and empathetic citizens of Red Sox Nation. That’s where the pity party ends.

 

For Sox ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, the coming offseason looms as a turning point, if not a breaking point. These are the Boston Red Sox, not — as some fans lament, citing Bloom’s previous employer — the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s imperative the Sox spend big this offseason, locking up third baseman Rafael Devers and ideally shortstop Xander Bogaerts, then filling their numerous other holes. It’s imperative the team’s bizarre feast-or-famine tendencies, which the hiring of Bloom in October 2019 was supposed to correct, come to an end.

And the closing paragraph:

 

The Sox need to spend, and spend wisely. No more hedging. No more excuses. The benefit of the doubt, if they even deserve that much, is about to expire.

Sound familiar?

 

One little nugget that was somewhat positive:

 

The 30,000-foot view of the Red Sox shows a farm system that MLB.com placed No. 11 in its midseason rankings, noting the Sox just missed making the top 10 for the first time since mid-2016.

 

And in closing, here is Chaim's boilerplate answer to the question of keeping Bogey and Devers:

 

“We want to keep them both here, on deals that are going to be good for everybody,” Bloom said. “Obviously, we haven’t found those deals yet, and I know that until and unless we do, it doesn’t matter what we say. But we’re going to keep trying. Above all we want to win championships and we want to do it with both of those guys here.”

[notin]

So you don't see Wacha returning next season? A 10-1 pitcher on this club should be a re-signing priority, imho.

 

I’m normally hesitant, but Wacha might be a time to just sign away. He hasn’t missed much if any time prior in the seasons just to coming to Boston, and they seem to have found a pitcher they can help EXCEL.

 

Obviously he could price himself out, but the Sox need to make this effort.

 

Also, finding another Wacha would be pretty cool…

[Hugh2]

OK, I have read Rosenthal's piece. It's solid, but there are no earth-shaking revelations or ideas. In fact, it closely echoes many of the points we've talked about here.

 

Here are the opening paragraphs:

 

Let’s start by giving the Red Sox something they do not necessarily deserve: The benefit of the doubt.

 

Let’s account for the unfortunate timing of many of their injuries. Let’s excuse the unexpected collapses of three young players — first baseman Bobby Dalbec, center fielder Jarren Duran and infielder Jeter Downs. Let’s concede the 2022 season is turning out almost the opposite of ’21, when the Sox came within two games of reaching the World Series. A near worst-case scenario instead of a best-case.

 

Fear not, kind, patient and empathetic citizens of Red Sox Nation. That’s where the pity party ends.

 

For Sox ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, the coming offseason looms as a turning point, if not a breaking point. These are the Boston Red Sox, not — as some fans lament, citing Bloom’s previous employer — the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s imperative the Sox spend big this offseason, locking up third baseman Rafael Devers and ideally shortstop Xander Bogaerts, then filling their numerous other holes. It’s imperative the team’s bizarre feast-or-famine tendencies, which the hiring of Bloom in October 2019 was supposed to correct, come to an end.

And the closing paragraph:

 

The Sox need to spend, and spend wisely. No more hedging. No more excuses. The benefit of the doubt, if they even deserve that much, is about to expire.

Sound familiar?

 

One little nugget that was somewhat positive:

 

The 30,000-foot view of the Red Sox shows a farm system that MLB.com placed No. 11 in its midseason rankings, noting the Sox just missed making the top 10 for the first time since mid-2016.

 

And in closing, here is Chaim's boilerplate answer to the question of keeping Bogey and Devers:

 

“We want to keep them both here, on deals that are going to be good for everybody,” Bloom said. “Obviously, we haven’t found those deals yet, and I know that until and unless we do, it doesn’t matter what we say. But we’re going to keep trying. Above all we want to win championships and we want to do it with both of those guys here.”

 

I believe BA and/or FA graphs had them at 9. Pipeline has them at 11

[Bellhorn04]

I believe BA and/or FA graphs had them at 9. Pipeline has them at 11

 

I was hearing numbers like 19 tossed around here. I like 9 to 11 much better!