A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Larry Cook]

I think you HAVE to sign a better catcher, let wong/McGuire battle for the backup role. Would also love an upgrade over Pham. Also, Casas should start at 1B, let Hosmer DH, or someone else.

 

Very fair points. But I remain a sceptic that Hang’em Chaim will ever see things as we do. And honestly, I do not know why!

[Hugh2]

Very fair points. But I remain a sceptic that Hang’em Chaim will ever see things as we do. And honestly, I do not know why!

 

Call me naive but I’m still giving him a chance, I will however come over to the dark side if he doesn’t make some big moves this off-season.

 

I hope you guys have cookies over there.

[notin]

Very fair points. But I remain a sceptic that Hang’em Chaim will ever see things as we do. And honestly, I do not know why!

 

Because none of us have ever run an MLB franchise??

[notin]

Call me naive but I’m still giving him a chance, I will however come over to the dark side if he doesn’t make some big moves this off-season.

 

I hope you guys have cookies over there.

 

 

I’m hoping he extends Bogaerts and Devers , but I honestly think it’ll just be Devers…

[Hugh2]

I’m hoping he extends Bogaerts and Devers , but I honestly think it’ll just be Devers…

 

I don’t think they have to extend Devers, especially if they aren’t confident, mine as well have him at a lower AAV next year. You can always slide Bogaerts to 3Rd and Story to SS, Mayer may be ready by 2024 as well.

 

I’m not as sentimental as most fans when it comes to players, and I’m all for trading guys away for future value. But I think there’s also value in continuity and the Sox have had almost NONE of that for a decade. Last homegrown talent the Sox signed to a long term contract that was a star was Pedroia. I think they can change that with Bogaerts and it sends a message to the team as well.

[moonslav59]

I think you HAVE to sign a better catcher, let wong/McGuire battle for the backup role. Would also love an upgrade over Pham. Also, Casas should start at 1B, let Hosmer DH, or someone else.

 

I don't disagree, but I do think we might have to let one or two positions "slide,: if we are to significantly upgrade some positions or just stay even at SS.

 

I do think catcher is a bigger need than 1B, but I'm assuming Casas will come through. Having Hosmer tilts the balance towards needing a catcher more.

 

Which position of need do you see as being the highest to lowest priority for fixing (winter additions?)

 

Here's mine (top listed first):

 

1. 2B/SS (whichever Story does not play): Arroyo & Valdez (Downs/Yorke/Lugo)

 

2. CF: Duran, J Davis (Rafaela)

 

3. Catcher: McGuire, Wong, RHern (Cottam)

 

4. SP 1/2: Sale/Paxton

 

5. RF: Dugo, Refsnyder (Abreu)

 

6. 1B/DH: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec (Kavadas)

 

7. Pen (beyond Houck & Whitlock): Schreiber, Brasier, Taylor, Davis, Barnes, Sawamura, German, Danish (Ort/Feltman)

 

8. SP 5/6: (Whitlock?) Winckowski, Crawford, Bello, Mata, Seabold (Walter/Murphy)

 

(One could make 9 slots with DH being #9 (Hosmer/Dalbec/Cordero/Granberg/Kavadas)

 

How do you guys rank our 2023 need areas?

 

Which do you think we fill from within, without any additions or minor ones?

 

[moonslav59]

I don’t think they have to extend Devers, especially if they aren’t confident, mine as well have him at a lower AAV next year. You can always slide Bogaerts to 3Rd and Story to SS, Mayer may be ready by 2024 as well.

 

I’m not as sentimental as most fans when it comes to players, and I’m all for trading guys away for future value. But I think there’s also value in continuity and the Sox have had almost NONE of that for a decade. Last homegrown talent the Sox signed to a long term contract that was a star was Pedroia. I think they can change that with Bogaerts and it sends a message to the team as well.

 

Bogaerts was extended, but the damn opt out got in the way. You are right. Pedey was the "last one," and maybe his example has scared the top brass.

[moonslav59]

I’m hoping he extends Bogaerts and Devers , but I honestly think it’ll just be Devers…

 

Agreed.

[moonslav59]

Because none of us have ever run an MLB franchise??

 

Thank God.

 

Imagine Swi as our GM!

[oldtimer]

I don't disagree, but I do think we might have to let one or two positions "slide,: if we are to significantly upgrade some positions or just stay even at SS.

 

I do think catcher is a bigger need than 1B, but I'm assuming Casas will come through. Having Hosmer tilts the balance towards needing a catcher more.

 

Which position of need do you see as being the highest to lowest priority for fixing (winter additions?)

 

Here's mine (top listed first):

 

1. 2B/SS (whichever Story does not play): Arroyo & Valdez (Downs/Yorke/Lugo)

 

2. CF: Duran, J Davis (Rafaela)

 

3. Catcher: McGuire, Wong, RHern (Cottam)

 

4. SP 1/2: Sale/Paxton

 

5. RF: Dugo, Refsnyder (Abreu)

 

6. 1B/DH: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec (Kavadas)

 

7. Pen (beyond Houck & instead of your approachWhitlock): Schreiber, Brasier, Taylor, Davis, Barnes, Sawamura, German, Danish (Ort/Feltman)

 

8. SP 5/6: (Whitlock?) Winckowski, Crawford, Bello, Mata, Seabold (Walter/Murphy)

 

(One could make 9 slots with DH being #9 (Hosmer/Dalbec/Cordero/Granberg/Kavadas)

 

How do you guys rank our 2023 need areas?

 

Which do you think we fill from within, without any additions or minor ones?

 

 

You are ranking needs plus giving a depth chart. If I did the same, it would be affected by whether we can extend Bogey, which is an if. Instead of your approach I will list what I think by position,

 

1B Casas (Hosmer)

2B Bogey (Arroyo)

SS Story (Bogey, Arroyo)

3B Devers (Arroyo)

LF Pham (Refsnyder)

CF FA (Duran)

RF Dugo (Refsnyder)

C FA (McGuire)

 

SP FA, Pivetta, Sale, Crawford, Winkowski, (Paxton?), Houck/Bello

RP FA closer, Schreiber, Whitlock, Brasier, Barnes, Taylor, Seabold (MUrphy, Walter Ward, Mata, Bazardo)

 

 

 

 

DH Hosmer, Bogey)

 

As far as deeper possibilities for position players, I would consider Downs, Dalbec and Davis gone)

[Hugh2]

For argumentative purposes let’s say extending Bogey costs 30 million per annum. That’s only an additional $10 million per year. Given the space the Sox have, that’s not a huge obstacle to making other moves to upgrade the team in 2023.

 

No reason we can’t extend Bogey and upgrade at catcher/OF/pitcher as well. If they need to stay under the cap one of those positions can be filled with a premium player via the trade market.

 

If the Sox are willing to go over the cap for a few years and make a run, there’s no reason they can’t go up against the next threshold. This means that after extending Bogaerts the Sox have an additional 60-100 million to spend depending on how frugal they want to be. Using the past 20 years as precedent, it seems their philosophy on being frugal is ever changing. I won’t be surprised either way.

 

But they could be a powerhouse next year if they spend the money.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't disagree, but I do think we might have to let one or two positions "slide,: if we are to significantly upgrade some positions or just stay even at SS.

 

I do think catcher is a bigger need than 1B, but I'm assuming Casas will come through. Having Hosmer tilts the balance towards needing a catcher more.

 

Which position of need do you see as being the highest to lowest priority for fixing (winter additions?)

 

Here's mine (top listed first):

 

1. 2B/SS (whichever Story does not play): Arroyo & Valdez (Downs/Yorke/Lugo)

 

2. CF: Duran, J Davis (Rafaela)

 

3. Catcher: McGuire, Wong, RHern (Cottam)

 

4. SP 1/2: Sale/Paxton

 

5. RF: Dugo, Refsnyder (Abreu)

 

6. 1B/DH: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec (Kavadas)

 

7. Pen (beyond Houck & Whitlock): Schreiber, Brasier, Taylor, Davis, Barnes, Sawamura, German, Danish (Ort/Feltman)

 

8. SP 5/6: (Whitlock?) Winckowski, Crawford, Bello, Mata, Seabold (Walter/Murphy)

 

(One could make 9 slots with DH being #9 (Hosmer/Dalbec/Cordero/Granberg/Kavadas)

 

How do you guys rank our 2023 need areas?

 

Which do you think we fill from within, without any additions or minor ones?

 

 

For me, above all else, it's 1. SP, 2. Pen, 3. CF... I think they already have a plan for SS and 1B, and C isn't a club priority, because other teams have shown you don't need a star behind the plate to contend (I won't name names of teams or no-names). And they can't wait to fill DH from within, and are grooming prospect Valdez to dazzle the batter's box as one-half rookie of 2023...

[notin]

For me, above all else, it's 1. SP, 2. Pen, 3. CF... I think they already have a plan for SS and 1B, and C isn't a club priority, because other teams have shown you don't need a star behind the plate to contend (I won't name names of teams or no-names). And they can't wait to fill DH from within, and are grooming prospect Valdez to dazzle the batter's box as one-half rookie of 2023...

 

 

And get a leadoff hitter capable of getting on base!! Nimmo will probably get a QO, but can the Sox work a deal for Ketel Marte? Or sign Kolten Wong?

[notin]

Thank God.

 

Imagine Swi as our GM!

 

I can’t even imagine me as the GM.

 

If the Brewers offered me Bradley and prospects for Renfroe, I’d probably waffle back and forth on the deal looking at the pros and cons and cons and pros until long after both players retired…

[notin]

For me, above all else, it's 1. SP, 2. Pen, 3. CF... I think they already have a plan for SS and 1B, and C isn't a club priority, because other teams have shown you don't need a star behind the plate to contend (I won't name names of teams or no-names). And they can't wait to fill DH from within, and are grooming prospect Valdez to dazzle the batter's box as one-half rookie of 2023...

 

 

I wouldn’t say catcher isn’t a priority. Maybe offense from the catcher isn’t, but they clearly value defense. As shown by the acquisition of McGuire and near-acquisition of Jacob Stallings…

[harmony]

I wouldn’t say catcher isn’t a priority. Maybe offense from the catcher isn’t, but they clearly value defense. As shown by the acquisition of McGuire and near-acquisition of Jacob Stallings…

FWIW at the trade deadline the Seattle Mariners prioritized catcher defense with a trade for veteran Curt Casali (who as a Cincinnati backup had caught 27 starts of newly acquired Seattle righthander Luis Castillo). When Casali came off the IL Thursday, the Mariners designated for assignment reserve catcher Luis Torrens, who two days earlier had delivered the game-winning hit in a 13-inning 1-0 victory over the New York Yankees:

 

 

Torrens was out of options.

 

Seattle's starting catcher, 25-year-old Cal Raleigh, is highly ranked defensively while carrying a wRC+ of 109:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=20&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I wouldn’t say catcher isn’t a priority. Maybe offense from the catcher isn’t, but they clearly value defense. As shown by the acquisition of McGuire and near-acquisition of Jacob Stallings…

 

Yup, that's what I totally meant... it's the reason a guy like Sandy Leon is still a big leaguer with a batting average of .191 the last six years...

[Larry Cook]

Because none of us have ever run an MLB franchise??

 

Really? I think if you review any of the thousands of posts on this board, you will see at least a dozen gm’s who know better than Hang’em Chaim posting regularly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With so many contracts coming off the books after this year, who is going on the books?

 

I'm not a GM, but I play one online, and can't see any way the Red Sox will spend enough to fill all the glaring and/or looming holes on the roster to contend in 2023. Despite what Sam Kennedy publicly espouses, it will be a rickety, swinging, collapsing, over-a-Wil-E-Coyote-canyon bridge year. Predictions:

 

1). Story will not move to SS, mainly because he knows Mayer is coming soon and would rather not be dancing around the diamond year-to-year, especially to be displaced by a fresh-faced kid. Instead, the Sox will acquire a veteran glove-first placeholder for SS. Rafaela will also make the team by '24 for his versatility, taking turns at both SS and CF.

 

2). Pham and Verdugo will be back in LF and RF, maybe joined by Nimmo in CF (but only if the Mets sign Judge; Boston will not).

 

3). Valdez will get a shot at DH out of ST, but other hot minor league bats could make debuts and share time there as the season progresses.

 

4). A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher will be the big investment, either via free agency or through trade...

 

5)... which means, either Casas... or Devers will be dealt. Hosmer is already paid-for at 1B, and Devers may not be at 3B.

[Bellhorn04]

Why not start 2023 with Hosmer and Dalbec platooning at first. When Casas is ready, move the Hosmer/Dalbec tandem to DH. That's two positions covered at little dough, leaving room to spend on other needs.

[oldtimer]

Why not start 2023 with Hosmer and Dalbec platooning at first. When Casas is ready, move the Hosmer/Dalbec tandem to DH. That's two positions covered at little dough, leaving room to spend on other needs.

 

I think we have given Dalbec enough plate appearances to prove what he can do. I would rather see him moved then being with the team. Surely we can get right handed DH candidate who can hit better.

[moonslav59]

I think we have given Dalbec enough plate appearances to prove what he can do. I would rather see him moved then being with the team. Surely we can get right handed DH candidate who can hit better.

 

Since Bobby Dee has options, and has very little trade value, I think he'll remain on the 40, but maybe not the 26.

 

As bad as the Dalbec 2022 season has been, and it's hard to imagine he can get any worse, he is currently sitting at a .340 OBP and .759 OPS vs LHPs and a projected 32 HRs over 650 PAs, which is the short side of a platoon. He has a career .860 OPS vs lefties with an astounding 650 PA line of 38 HRs and 116 RBI (even a .330 OBP!)

 

I don't think we throw in the towel, just yet, on Dalbec, but DH and ack-up 3B/1B seem like his best spot on the 26.

[Nick]

Devers is 6-for-44 (.136 batting average) in August. Bogaerts is 10-for-45 (.222) and Martinez is 8-for-41 (.195).

 

Say what you will but we aren't going to make up any grounds with this. JD is losing money every day with his prolonged slump. $30M to Xander? No thank you.

Edited August 14, 2022 by Nick

[Elktonnick]

Since Bobby Dee has options, and has very little trade value, I think he'll remain on the 40, but maybe not the 26.

 

As bad as the Dalbec 2022 season has been, and it's hard to imagine he can get any worse, he is currently sitting at a .340 OBP and .759 OPS vs LHPs and a projected 32 HRs over 650 PAs, which is the short side of a platoon. He has a career .860 OPS vs lefties with an astounding 650 PA line of 38 HRs and 116 RBI (even a .330 OBP!)

 

I don't think we throw in the towel, just yet, on Dalbec, but DH and ack-up 3B/1B seem like his best spot on the 26.

 

I think he will better at left out.

[Nick]

Since Bobby Dee has options, and has very little trade value, I think he'll remain on the 40, but maybe not the 26.

 

As bad as the Dalbec 2022 season has been, and it's hard to imagine he can get any worse, he is currently sitting at a .340 OBP and .759 OPS vs LHPs and a projected 32 HRs over 650 PAs, which is the short side of a platoon. He has a career .860 OPS vs lefties with an astounding 650 PA line of 38 HRs and 116 RBI (even a .330 OBP!)

 

I don't think we throw in the towel, just yet, on Dalbec, but DH and ack-up 3B/1B seem like his best spot on the 26.

 

You don't give up on this kid. He still comes cheap. Platooning may save him.

[Nick]

Why not start 2023 with Hosmer and Dalbec platooning at first. When Casas is ready, move the Hosmer/Dalbec tandem to DH. That's two positions covered at little dough, leaving room to spend on other needs.

 

Spoken like a mini-Bloom. (I agree with it)

[Nick]

With so many contracts coming off the books after this year, who is going on the books?

 

I'm not a GM, but I play one online, and can't see any way the Red Sox will spend enough to fill all the glaring and/or looming holes on the roster to contend in 2023. Despite what Sam Kennedy publicly espouses, it will be a rickety, swinging, collapsing, over-a-Wil-E-Coyote-canyon bridge year. Predictions:

 

1). Story will not move to SS, mainly because he knows Mayer is coming soon and would rather not be dancing around the diamond year-to-year, especially to be displaced by a fresh-faced kid. Instead, the Sox will acquire a veteran glove-first placeholder for SS. Rafaela will also make the team by '24 for his versatility, taking turns at both SS and CF.

 

2). Pham and Verdugo will be back in LF and RF, maybe joined by Nimmo in CF (but only if the Mets sign Judge; Boston will not).

 

3). Valdez will get a shot at DH out of ST, but other hot minor league bats could make debuts and share time there as the season progresses.

 

4). A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher will be the big investment, either via free agency or through trade...

 

5)... which means, either Casas... or Devers will be dealt. Hosmer is already paid-for at 1B, and Devers may not be at 3B.

 

I wouldn't mind pay top dollar for an ace (if there's one out there) on a short deal. No more than 2 years......from the Rounder "pay the man".

[Nick]

SP

1 Sale

2 Paxton

3 Pivetta

4 Crawford

5 Winckowski

6 Bello

7

8

9

10

 

It better be deep, based on injuries this year.

[moonslav59]

With so many contracts coming off the books after this year, who is going on the books?

 

I'm not a GM, but I play one online, and can't see any way the Red Sox will spend enough to fill all the glaring and/or looming holes on the roster to contend in 2023. Despite what Sam Kennedy publicly espouses, it will be a rickety, swinging, collapsing, over-a-Wil-E-Coyote-canyon bridge year. Predictions:

 

1). Story will not move to SS, mainly because he knows Mayer is coming soon and would rather not be dancing around the diamond year-to-year, especially to be displaced by a fresh-faced kid. Instead, the Sox will acquire a veteran glove-first placeholder for SS. Rafaela will also make the team by '24 for his versatility, taking turns at both SS and CF.

 

2). Pham and Verdugo will be back in LF and RF, maybe joined by Nimmo in CF (but only if the Mets sign Judge; Boston will not).

 

3). Valdez will get a shot at DH out of ST, but other hot minor league bats could make debuts and share time there as the season progresses.

 

4). A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher will be the big investment, either via free agency or through trade...

 

5)... which means, either Casas... or Devers will be dealt. Hosmer is already paid-for at 1B, and Devers may not be at 3B.

 

I like your thought process, here. I don't disagree on any of this, but want to add...

 

1) I don't playing Story at SS, until Mayer is ready is a bad idea. (We might see Valdez at 2B/DH in 2023 and then DH only once Mayer joins the team.)

 

2) I'd love to see a Nimmo addition. I'm okay with Verdugo in RF, but have vociferously questioned Sox management's views on him in RF.

 

3) With a gaping hole at SS/2B, maybe Valdez gets a shot at 2B, despite his reported less than average defense, there.

 

4) Singing to the choir.

 

5) I've been saying for a while, Casas might be traded- not because I don't like him, but because you have to give top value to get top value, and as bad as 1B has looked for us, recently, I don't think Hosmer/Dalbec (Kavadas/Valdez?) is one of our highest need areas. If we can package Casas for a top pitcher, catcher, 2B/SS or CF'er, I'm interested. Finding a 1Bman, if Hosmer & Co. fail in 2023 is easier than adding an ace or top 2B, C or CF'er mid season.

 

[moonslav59]

Perhaps, but we have a lot of other players, I feel are more likely nontender/DFA or trade candidates. A lot depends on how many Rule 5 guys we add to the 40 and how many roster additions we make over the winter, but here is my list:

 

Sanchez

Ja. Davis

Barnes

Familia

Brasier

Cordero (can play OF, so maybe not)

Wong or RHern (assuming we add a starting catcher)

Downs

Dalbec

 

When you consider we are losing 8 roster slots to free agency and have options on Pham & Sawamura, one has to think several of these players on this list will be back on the 40, hopefully not the 26, next season.

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by moonslav59