A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

When did player "value" become "what I could get for him in trade?" To me, the "value" of a player is how well they perform and how much fans like watching them play, not the hypothetical haul of prospects one could get by getting rid of them.

 

Understood, but let's say we are out of contention in July. Would it make sense to keep players whose contracts are up at the end of the year or trade them?

 

Teams in that situation have been trading those players since forever, right?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When did player "value" become "what I could get for him in trade?" To me, the "value" of a player is how well they perform and how much fans like watching them play, not the hypothetical haul of prospects one could get by getting rid of them.

 

Come on, jad -- one of those prospects we get for a big league star and homegrown fan favorite might actually make the majors someday!

[Kimmi]

Why not just start the Realistic View at 2023 Part I?

 

OMG

 

No, just no.

[Kimmi]

" Realistically " the Sox have dug quite a hole for themselves. The first goal now should be to get back to .500. But can they do that ? The offense certainly will improve. They cannot possibly be as bad as they have looked. But when they do take a lead late into the game , they have to close it out. They cannot keep blowing those kind of games.

 

No, they cannot keep blowing late leads.

 

That said, once the offense comes around, maybe the relievers (and starters) will have a little more cushion to work with. Our pitchers have thrown a lot of high stress innings trying to protect 1 or 2 run leads. The pen still needs to improve, but I do think it would make a difference if the relievers didn't feel like they have to be perfect with every pitch they throw.

[JDavis76]

Well. you are a Yankee fan, so I was saying it like expected you to write about 2023, as a way of saying our 2022 was over, like expect you hope it is.

 

It wasn't meant to be any sort of demand that you not start the next part.

 

I didn't start any part........

[Kimmi]

At what point do the six hitters that are under performing start to hit and gravitate toward their career norms?

 

It starts tonight!

[jad]

Come on, jad -- one of those prospects we get for a big league star and homegrown fan favorite might actually make the majors someday!

 

Yeah, you're right. Why, one of them might even be the next Trevor Story!

[JDavis76]

It starts tonight!

 

That may be tough, kyle wright has pitched pretty lights out so far this season......

[jad]

It's just so unfair that the RS have to play teams better than they are.

[Bellhorn04]

It's just so unfair that the RS have to play teams better than they are.

 

You and 5GG's are in quite a battle for Most Bitterly Cynical Talksox Poster of 2022.

[moonslav59]

I didn't start any part........

 

Sorry. I noticed this afterwards.

 

My bad.

[Kimmi]

That may be tough, kyle wright has pitched pretty lights out so far this season......

 

Yes, I'm aware of that.

 

Reverse lock mojo in effect.

[jad]

Understood, but let's say we are out of contention in July. Would it make sense to keep players whose contracts are up at the end of the year or trade them?

 

Teams in that situation have been trading those players since forever, right?

 

Yes. Absolutely. Because I don't enjoy watching Bogaerts or Devers any less because the rest of the team sucks.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You and 5GG's are in quite a battle for Most Bitterly Cynical Talksox Poster of 2022.

 

Bah, I mock cynics -- they only attribute the worst possible motives to people's actions. I never said the gentlemen who run the Red Sox have bad motives; they're entrusted by a business to turn profits, and they always succeed.

 

I just call them out as full of crap when they insist they're all-in -- every single year -- building a roster that supposedly will contend for a World Series title. Fans do understand that may unreasonable every single year... especially entering a season without, say, a back-end of the bullpen, right-handed hitting outfielder, left-handed first baseman, and any bench player who can pinch-hit vs. a big league pitcher and advance a ghost runner one base.

[moonslav59]

Bah, I mock cynics -- they only attribute the worst possible motives to people's actions. I never said the gentlemen who run the Red Sox have bad motives; they're entrusted by a business to turn profits, and they always succeed.

 

I just call them out as full of crap when they insist they're all-in -- every single year -- building a roster that supposedly will contend for a World Series title. Fans do understand that may unreasonable every single year... especially entering a season without, say, a back-end of the bullpen, right-handed hitting outfielder, left-handed first baseman, and any bench player who can pinch-hit vs. a big league pitcher and advance a ghost runner one base.

 

Saying they want to be continually competitive is not the same as "all in," and look where "all in got us."

 

Yes, a nice 3 year run and the best season any Red Sox fan has ever seen, but the after affects are still upon us. It's easy to just explain it away by expecting Henry to just keep throwing more and more money to stay "all in," but I don't think he wants to emulate the Dodgers, and he doesn't have to to keep making money and keep the fans perceiving we have a chance every year (except 2020, of course.)

[Nick]

There is a path to keeping our key players.....

 

Keep

+13.333M Xander (6 year/$200M)

+11.000M Devers (Arb 3, wait for winter of 2023 for Mega Deal)

+07.000M Eovaldi (4 Year/$96M)

-02.000M JD (2 year/$40M)...I can't see him getting much higher, his current luxury tax pay is $22M so he'll save Sox money

Total say $30M

 

Financed by

+16.000M Price

+07.000M Kike

+07.000M Vaz

+05.000M Hill

+07.000M Wacha

Total say $42M

 

Sure we'll have to fill in some gaping holes....but I rather work on replacing Vaz, Kike, Wacha, Hill than JD, Xander and Eovaldi. Wouldn't you?

 

Our starting rotation could be Eovaldi, Whitlock, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta.....Hell by spring of 2023, we should have plethora of young arms to fill up the pitching staff.

 

We'll still have

Story

Devers

JD

Xander

Verdugo

JBJ

Dalbec/Codero/Cass

Arroyo

 

I don't believe Sox will 'blow it up'.....just don't see it. They're not stupid.

 

Sorry, I'm a numbers guy. I can't talk about roster without mentioning payroll.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Nick

[Old Red]

There is a path to keeping our key players.....

 

Keep

+13.333M Xander (6 year/$200M)

+11.000M Devers (Arb 3, wait for winter of 2023 for Mega Deal)

+07.000M Eovaldi (4 Year/$96M)

-02.000M JD (2 year/$40M)...I can't see him getting much higher, his current luxury tax pay is $22M so he'll save Sox money

Total say $30M

 

Financed by

+16.000M Price

+07.000M Kike

+07.000M Vaz

+05.000M Hill

+07.000M Wacha

Total say $42M

 

Sure we'll have to fill in some gaping holes....but I rather work on replacing Vaz, Kike, Wacha, Hill than JD, Xander and Eovaldi. Wouldn't you?

 

Our starting rotation could be Eovaldi, Whitlock, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta.....Hell by spring of 2023, we should have plethora of young arms to fill up the pitching staff.

 

We'll still have

Story

Devers

JD

Xander

Verdugo

JBJ

Dalbec/Codero/Cass

Arroyo

 

I don't believe Sox will 'blow it up'.....just don't see it. They're not stupid.

 

Sorry, I'm a numbers guy. I can't talk about roster without mentioning payroll.

 

Interesting take, and I agree with the concept, but I just to see the Sox dishing out that much money for any of them.

[Hitch]

As I mentioned in the other thread - there's a possible opportunity about to come up to add some very big pieces to our farm and re-tool significantly off the back of this mess (if it continues).

 

Eovaldi

Hill

Wacha

Bogey

JD

Hernandez

Vazquez

 

...are all free agents after this season (unless Bogey gets a bad injury)

 

Assuming continued good form and health, Eovaldi, Bogey and JD could bring back seriously big pieces. Hill and Wacha some decent pieces. Hernandez and Vaquez would depend on better form. We could even offer to assume large chunks of the remaining contracts to gain the absolute best returns.

 

The winter would arrive with $84 million coming off the books and a stacked farm. They'll have the freedom to extend Devers long term. Rotation starts with Sale, Paxton and Whitllock. Houck, Bello and Seabold should be ready or close. We'll have big trade pieces and a lot of financial freedom to bring in other starters and sort the pen.

 

Duran and Casas will hopefully prove in the second half they're MLB ready. Downs is hopefully close. Yorke, Mayer, Mata all a year closer. And that's without whatever we get back for the list above.

 

I'd rather we get back to winning ways and compete for a ring, but this is no bad time to have a down year. With the players we've got to offer and with more buyers (and less sellers) than ever because of extended play offs, it could be argued a bad year now could be better for the health of the team overall.

 

This also based on my assumption there's next to zero chance we give Bogey the contract he deserves.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a path to keeping our key players.....

 

Keep

+13.333M Xander (6 year/$200M)

+11.000M Devers (Arb 3, wait for winter of 2023 for Mega Deal)

+07.000M Eovaldi (4 Year/$96M)

-02.000M JD (2 year/$40M)...I can't see him getting much higher, his current luxury tax pay is $22M so he'll save Sox money

Total say $30M

 

Financed by

+16.000M Price

+07.000M Kike

+07.000M Vaz

+05.000M Hill

+07.000M Wacha

Total say $42M

 

Sure we'll have to fill in some gaping holes....but I rather work on replacing Vaz, Kike, Wacha, Hill than JD, Xander and Eovaldi. Wouldn't you?

 

Our starting rotation could be Eovaldi, Whitlock, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta.....Hell by spring of 2023, we should have plethora of young arms to fill up the pitching staff.

 

We'll still have

Story

Devers

JD

Xander

Verdugo

JBJ

Dalbec/Codero/Cass

Arroyo

 

I don't believe Sox will 'blow it up'.....just don't see it. They're not stupid.

 

Sorry, I'm a numbers guy. I can't talk about roster without mentioning payroll.

 

Good stuff, Nick.

[moonslav59]

There is a path to keeping our key players.....

 

Keep

+13.333M Xander (6 year/$200M)

+11.000M Devers (Arb 3, wait for winter of 2023 for Mega Deal)

+07.000M Eovaldi (4 Year/$96M)

-02.000M JD (2 year/$40M)...I can't see him getting much higher, his current luxury tax pay is $22M so he'll save Sox money

Total say $30M

 

Financed by

+16.000M Price

+07.000M Kike

+07.000M Vaz

+05.000M Hill

+07.000M Wacha

Total say $42M

 

Sure we'll have to fill in some gaping holes....but I rather work on replacing Vaz, Kike, Wacha, Hill than JD, Xander and Eovaldi. Wouldn't you?

 

Our starting rotation could be Eovaldi, Whitlock, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta.....Hell by spring of 2023, we should have plethora of young arms to fill up the pitching staff.

 

We'll still have

Story

Devers

JD

Xander

Verdugo

JBJ

Dalbec/Codero/Cass

Arroyo

 

I don't believe Sox will 'blow it up'.....just don't see it. They're not stupid.

 

Sorry, I'm a numbers guy. I can't talk about roster without mentioning payroll.

 

I think we might make strong runs at Devers and Nate. I think the others walk.

 

I think JD will sign for significantly less than $40M/2- maybe $40M/3 or $30M/2.

 

I would not be surprised to see Kike back, either. Wacha might become too expensive.

 

Finding a good catcher won't come cheap.

 

It will be interesting to see who offers Bogey the most, and if it will be over $200M/8. Do you offer Bogey $200M/8 and tell him he's playing 2B, or do you stick with Story at 2B?

[Bellhorn04]

I think we might make strong runs at Devers and Nate. I think the others walk.

 

I think JD will sign for significantly less than $40M/2- maybe $40M/3 or $30M/2.

 

I would not be surprised to see Kike back, either. Wacha might become too expensive.

 

Finding a good catcher won't come cheap.

 

It will be interesting to see who offers Bogey the most, and if it will be over $200M/8. Do you offer Bogey $200M/8 and tell him he's playing 2B, or do you stick with Story at 2B?

 

The situation with Bogey made me think, maybe the team should go to the player and ask them what they're looking for - have the player make the first move.

[moonslav59]

As I mentioned in the other thread - there's a possible opportunity about to come up to add some very big pieces to our farm and re-tool significantly off the back of this mess (if it continues).

 

Eovaldi

Hill

Wacha

Bogey

JD

Hernandez

Vazquez

 

...are all free agents after this season (unless Bogey gets a bad injury)

 

Assuming continued good form and health, Eovaldi, Bogey and JD could bring back seriously big pieces. Hill and Wacha some decent pieces. Hernandez and Vaquez would depend on better form. We could even offer to assume large chunks of the remaining contracts to gain the absolute best returns.

 

The winter would arrive with $84 million coming off the books and a stacked farm. They'll have the freedom to extend Devers long term. Rotation starts with Sale, Paxton and Whitllock. Houck, Bello and Seabold should be ready or close. We'll have big trade pieces and a lot of financial freedom to bring in other starters and sort the pen.

 

Duran and Casas will hopefully prove in the second half they're MLB ready. Downs is hopefully close. Yorke, Mayer, Mata all a year closer. And that's without whatever we get back for the list above.

 

I'd rather we get back to winning ways and compete for a ring, but this is no bad time to have a down year. With the players we've got to offer and with more buyers (and less sellers) than ever because of extended play offs, it could be argued a bad year now could be better for the health of the team overall.

 

This also based on my assumption there's next to zero chance we give Bogey the contract he deserves.

 

Stacking the farm would also allow for trading some of the farm to fill some gaps that might be too expensive or risky to fill via gree agency- like finding a good young catcher.

 

I'm not quite ready to start seriously looking at fire sale possibilities. It's too early for that, but I do think our extended future could be greatly enhanced with a mega fire sale and a busy winter.

[Hitch]

Stacking the farm would also allow for trading some of the farm to fill some gaps that might be too expensive or risky to fill via gree agency- like finding a good young catcher.

 

I'm not quite ready to start seriously looking at fire sale possibilities. It's too early for that, but I do think our extended future could be greatly enhanced with a mega fire sale and a busy winter.

 

Yes exactly. We're still a ways away from this becoming reality, but if the stars align and the top free agents perform, but we don't as a team, the pay off could be huge.

[Bellhorn04]

So who are the big free agents coming up for auction next year - besides our own?

[moonslav59]

Yes exactly. We're still a ways away from this becoming reality, but if the stars align and the top free agents perform, but we don't as a team, the pay off could be huge.

 

Assuming Wacha and Hill are doing well, and Kike turns things around, we might get some very nice pieces for them, too.

[Old Red]

So who are the big free agents coming up for auction next year - besides our own?

 

Judge could be a possibility?

[moonslav59]

So who are the big free agents coming up for auction next year - besides our own?

SP: Syndergaard, Nate, deGrom ($30.5M option), Wacha, Stripling, Bassitt, Manaea, Musgrove, Hill, Taillon, Clevinger, Eflin, K Gibson, Greinke, Wainwright

RP: too many to list

C: Willson Contreras/ Omar Narvaez

1B: (I think we go with Casas, if he's not traded) Abreu

2B: Kike, A frazier, B Drury

LF: Beni, Brantley, Pederson

CF: Kike, Kiermayer, Nimmo

RF: Judge

DH, JD, Brantley

[notin]

The situation with Bogey made me think, maybe the team should go to the player and ask them what they're looking for - have the player make the first move.

 

That might happen more often than we realize…

[Nick]

I think we might make strong runs at Devers and Nate. I think the others walk.

 

I think JD will sign for significantly less than $40M/2- maybe $40M/3 or $30M/2.

 

I would not be surprised to see Kike back, either. Wacha might become too expensive.

 

Finding a good catcher won't come cheap.

 

It will be interesting to see who offers Bogey the most, and if it will be over $200M/8. Do you offer Bogey $200M/8 and tell him he's playing 2B, or do you stick with Story at 2B?

 

I have Sox offering Xander $200M/6years. I doubt he'll do any better.

 

You have to make choices. I rather take Kike's $7M and Wacha's $7M and pay Xander. We gave Wacha a one year deal for a reason.

[moonslav59]

Hard Hit %

 

32 Devers

31 Bogey

30 JD

29 Cordero

28 Arroyo

27 JBJ

26 Kike

25 Vaz

24 Dugo & Plawecki

21 Dalbec

20 Story

 

LD%

29 JD

26 Devers

25 Bogey

22 Vaz

19 JBJ

18 Cordero

17 Dalbec, Kike & Story

16 Dugo

13 Arroyo

8 Plawecki