A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[JDavis76]

I agree, but they have to win a series first. It's May 12th and they still haven't done that yet.

 

Wrong, they won the series vs detroit back in April.

[Hitch]

In between stands the dispassionate realist!

 

Haha!!

[Hitch]

The problem with this list of players is that all but Vaz, and I guess Kike, at the moment, are big losses, and finding decent catchers is very difficult.

 

However, with Price's money added on, I can't see why we can't replace these guys with the same type of quality and expectations, and it's not like bringing them all back is going to guarantee a better team. At most, we might stay even, since these guys are aging.

 

There is a chance we get some ML ready prospects for these guys, like we did with ERod, long ago. We could also see us stockpiling prospects at the deadline, then trading some in the winter to fill the gaps free agency can't do, or will be too expensive to do.

 

I'm not happy even thinking about a fire sale, but the mini fire sale of 2020 did work out pretty well, and this fire sale could/should bring back more than Pivetta & Seabold.

 

Again, I'm not giving up, but I can't seem to block the idea of a fire sale out of my head.

 

 

 

Your last sentence is exactly where I am. I actually think I'm tilting towards wanting it to happen because I think the health of the team could be so massively improved and I hate tanking.

 

Yeah they're all losses, but I don't think we extend them before year out anyway, so we'd be in the same situation regardless - they're there in free agency if we want them. But now after a lot of prospects/MLB ready players in the house, too.

 

I keep forgetting the Price money. If my math is correct that's near enough $100 million coming off the books. We'll have holes for sure, but a lot of money to fill them and a lot of talented prospects ready to trade or maybe slot in.

 

Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta is a decent starting 4, with Bello, Seabold and Houck in the wings, too. We trade some prospects for a great pitcher (or get one back in the sell off) and that's a nice rotation to build on, with talent behind.

 

A massive plus would be if Duran and Casas show they're able to cut it in the bigs after the sell off. If they do, as you said, we'd still need a good catcher (maybe Wong will be ready as a no2?), a 2nd baseman, centre/right fielder. A power bat to play DH. You'd hope we'd get some options for an almost ready starting pitcher, young catcher and/or a 2nd baseman in any sell off.

 

It's the fact so many teams will be buyers that keeps exciting me. Look at The Angels. If they keep it going and are in contention, what would they give up for Eovaldi if we assume all of his remaining contract? They finally have more pitching, but Eovaldi is the kind of guy that helps put you over. The Padres have prospects to burn, what would a JD or Bogey, do for them? Not that it's likely to happen, but how I'd love The Marlins to be in contention. They have starting pithing to burn at AAA.

 

Bloom must feel like he's in an odd position. If we tank and the listed players hold their worth (or increase in Kike and Vaquez's cases), he'd likely be salivating at the deals he can make for those players. But at the same time, if we tank, surely his head will be on the block. He'd be on a very short leash at the very least.

[notin]

Your last sentence is exactly where I am. I actually think I'm tilting towards wanting it to happen because I think the health of the team could be so massively improved and I hate tanking.

 

Yeah they're all losses, but I don't think we extend them before year out anyway, so we'd be in the same situation regardless - they're there in free agency if we want them. But now after a lot of prospects/MLB ready players in the house, too.

 

I keep forgetting the Price money. If my math is correct that's near enough $100 million coming off the books. We'll have holes for sure, but a lot of money to fill them and a lot of talented prospects ready to trade or maybe slot in.

 

Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta is a decent starting 4, with Bello, Seabold and Houck in the wings, too. We trade some prospects for a great pitcher (or get one back in the sell off) and that's a nice rotation to build on, with talent behind.

 

A massive plus would be if Duran and Casas show they're able to cut it in the bigs after the sell off. If they do, as you said, we'd still need a good catcher (maybe Wong will be ready as a no2?), a 2nd baseman, centre/right fielder. A power bat to play DH. You'd hope we'd get some options for an almost ready starting pitcher, young catcher and/or a 2nd baseman in any sell off.

 

It's the fact so many teams will be buyers that keeps exciting me. Look at The Angels. If they keep it going and are in contention, what would they give up for Eovaldi if we assume all of his remaining contract? They finally have more pitching, but Eovaldi is the kind of guy that helps put you over. The Padres have prospects to burn, what would a JD or Bogey, do for them? Not that it's likely to happen, but how I'd love The Marlins to be in contention. They have starting pithing to burn at AAA.

 

Bloom must feel like he's in an odd position. If we tank and the listed players hold their worth (or increase in Kike and Vaquez's cases), he'd likely be salivating at the deals he can make for those players. But at the same time, if we tank, surely his head will be on the block. He'd be on a very short leash at the very least.

 

The Sox tried to get Jason Stallings last off-season. Maybe Carson Kelly will be the next target. (The rapid rise of Alek Thomas has pushed Daulton Varsho out of CF and back behind the plate.)

[JDavis76]

Your last sentence is exactly where I am. I actually think I'm tilting towards wanting it to happen because I think the health of the team could be so massively improved and I hate tanking.

 

Yeah they're all losses, but I don't think we extend them before year out anyway, so we'd be in the same situation regardless - they're there in free agency if we want them. But now after a lot of prospects/MLB ready players in the house, too.

 

I keep forgetting the Price money. If my math is correct that's near enough $100 million coming off the books. We'll have holes for sure, but a lot of money to fill them and a lot of talented prospects ready to trade or maybe slot in.

 

Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta is a decent starting 4, with Bello, Seabold and Houck in the wings, too. We trade some prospects for a great pitcher (or get one back in the sell off) and that's a nice rotation to build on, with talent behind.

 

A massive plus would be if Duran and Casas show they're able to cut it in the bigs after the sell off. If they do, as you said, we'd still need a good catcher (maybe Wong will be ready as a no2?), a 2nd baseman, centre/right fielder. A power bat to play DH. You'd hope we'd get some options for an almost ready starting pitcher, young catcher and/or a 2nd baseman in any sell off.

 

It's the fact so many teams will be buyers that keeps exciting me. Look at The Angels. If they keep it going and are in contention, what would they give up for Eovaldi if we assume all of his remaining contract? They finally have more pitching, but Eovaldi is the kind of guy that helps put you over. The Padres have prospects to burn, what would a JD or Bogey, do for them? Not that it's likely to happen, but how I'd love The Marlins to be in contention. They have starting pithing to burn at AAA.

 

Bloom must feel like he's in an odd position. If we tank and the listed players hold their worth (or increase in Kike and Vaquez's cases), he'd likely be salivating at the deals he can make for those players. But at the same time, if we tank, surely his head will be on the block. He'd be on a very short leash at the very least.

 

pivetta sucks and he's 29. sale is 33 and paxton is soon to be 34. Neither has shown the ability to stay healthy. At their ages, will they really be much more than back end starters after the rebuild?

[Hitch]

The Sox tried to get Jason Stallings last off-season. Maybe Carson Kelly will be the next target. (The rapid rise of Alek Thomas has pushed Daulton Varsho out of CF and back behind the plate.)

 

The Diamondbacks staying in the play off picture would be another very nice bonus. If we get big enough hauls back in any sell off, Murphy may be in play from the A's. He'd cost a pretty penny, however.

[notin]

Your last sentence is exactly where I am. I actually think I'm tilting towards wanting it to happen because I think the health of the team could be so massively improved and I hate tanking.

 

Yeah they're all losses, but I don't think we extend them before year out anyway, so we'd be in the same situation regardless - they're there in free agency if we want them. But now after a lot of prospects/MLB ready players in the house, too.

 

I keep forgetting the Price money. If my math is correct that's near enough $100 million coming off the books. We'll have holes for sure, but a lot of money to fill them and a lot of talented prospects ready to trade or maybe slot in.

 

Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta is a decent starting 4, with Bello, Seabold and Houck in the wings, too. We trade some prospects for a great pitcher (or get one back in the sell off) and that's a nice rotation to build on, with talent behind.

 

A massive plus would be if Duran and Casas show they're able to cut it in the bigs after the sell off. If they do, as you said, we'd still need a good catcher (maybe Wong will be ready as a no2?), a 2nd baseman, centre/right fielder. A power bat to play DH. You'd hope we'd get some options for an almost ready starting pitcher, young catcher and/or a 2nd baseman in any sell off.

 

It's the fact so many teams will be buyers that keeps exciting me. Look at The Angels. If they keep it going and are in contention, what would they give up for Eovaldi if we assume all of his remaining contract? They finally have more pitching, but Eovaldi is the kind of guy that helps put you over. The Padres have prospects to burn, what would a JD or Bogey, do for them? Not that it's likely to happen, but how I'd love The Marlins to be in contention. They have starting pithing to burn at AAA.

 

Bloom must feel like he's in an odd position. If we tank and the listed players hold their worth (or increase in Kike and Vaquez's cases), he'd likely be salivating at the deals he can make for those players. But at the same time, if we tank, surely his head will be on the block. He'd be on a very short leash at the very least.

 

The Padres would have no interest in Bogaerts. They have so many shortstops now that they’re playing them all over the field.

 

St. Louis makes more sense. Ditto Philadelphia (unless they’re selling too), and maybe Miami if the Sox eat some cash.

 

If Boston is a seller and tries to deal Bogaerts, the good news is there won’t be a glut of talented shortstops up for sale…

[Hitch]

pivetta sucks and he's 29. sale is 33 and paxton is soon to be 34. Neither has shown the ability to stay healthy. At their ages, will they really be much more than back end starters after the rebuild?

 

Pivetta has shown flashes. This year will show us what he's about. There are question marks, I don't disagree.

[Hitch]

The Padres would have no interest in Bogaerts. They have so many shortstops now that they’re playing them all over the field.

 

St. Louis makes more sense. Ditto Philadelphia (unless they’re selling too), and maybe Miami if the Sox eat some cash.

 

If Boston is a seller and tries to deal Bogaerts, the good news is there won’t be a glut of talented shortstops up for sale…

 

I only mentioned the Padres as a possible landing spot for Bogey for the same reason I did JD - the DH spot. Not an exact fit though, I grant you.

 

Edit: Jim Bowden mention the Cardinals for Bogey, in return for 2nd/3rd baseman Nolan Gorman.

[mvp 78]

Bogey/Lugo to Cards for Gorman

[JDavis76]

Pivetta has shown flashes. This year will show us what he's about. There are question marks, I don't disagree.

 

Flashes of what?!!

 

He's got an ERA of 6.08 with a WHIP of 1.61 this year and a career ERA of 5.20 and a career WHIP of 1.40.

 

Not exactly what I would call a building block.

[Hitch]

Flashes of what?!!

 

He's got an ERA of 6.08 with a WHIP of 1.61 this year and a career ERA of 5.20 and a career WHIP of 1.40.

 

Not exactly what I would call a building block.

 

 

He pitched 30 starts last year to a an ERA of 4.53. He's had games where he's been very good, although not enough. If he pitches to last years level for the next few years, he's a decent 5th starter (depth option). I'm not saying we slot him in as the opening day starter.

[JDavis76]

He pitched 30 starts last year to a an ERA of 4.53. He's had games where he's been very good, although not enough. If he pitches to last years level for the next few years, he's a decent 5th starter (depth option). I'm not saying we slot him in as the opening day starter.

 

But by the time the rebuild is complete sale and paxton would be battling for the 5th starter spot.

[Hitch]

But by the time the rebuild is complete sale and paxton would be battling for the 5th starter spot.

 

Yeah, see, you're making the mistake of thinking I'm talking about a rebuild. I'm not.

[moonslav59]

The sox making the playoffs at this point is far from "likely". They are listed as having roughly a 30% chance as it stands right now.

 

What percent chance does the current 6th place team have?

[moonslav59]

Your last sentence is exactly where I am. I actually think I'm tilting towards wanting it to happen because I think the health of the team could be so massively improved and I hate tanking.

 

Yeah they're all losses, but I don't think we extend them before year out anyway, so we'd be in the same situation regardless - they're there in free agency if we want them. But now after a lot of prospects/MLB ready players in the house, too.

 

I keep forgetting the Price money. If my math is correct that's near enough $100 million coming off the books. We'll have holes for sure, but a lot of money to fill them and a lot of talented prospects ready to trade or maybe slot in.

 

Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Pivetta is a decent starting 4, with Bello, Seabold and Houck in the wings, too. We trade some prospects for a great pitcher (or get one back in the sell off) and that's a nice rotation to build on, with talent behind.

 

A massive plus would be if Duran and Casas show they're able to cut it in the bigs after the sell off. If they do, as you said, we'd still need a good catcher (maybe Wong will be ready as a no2?), a 2nd baseman, centre/right fielder. A power bat to play DH. You'd hope we'd get some options for an almost ready starting pitcher, young catcher and/or a 2nd baseman in any sell off.

 

It's the fact so many teams will be buyers that keeps exciting me. Look at The Angels. If they keep it going and are in contention, what would they give up for Eovaldi if we assume all of his remaining contract? They finally have more pitching, but Eovaldi is the kind of guy that helps put you over. The Padres have prospects to burn, what would a JD or Bogey, do for them? Not that it's likely to happen, but how I'd love The Marlins to be in contention. They have starting pithing to burn at AAA.

 

Bloom must feel like he's in an odd position. If we tank and the listed players hold their worth (or increase in Kike and Vaquez's cases), he'd likely be salivating at the deals he can make for those players. But at the same time, if we tank, surely his head will be on the block. He'd be on a very short leash at the very least.

 

I can't get to "wanting it to happen," just yet, but we would likely have a much better longer view, if we had a fire sale in July.

 

I'd like to add that the money we currently spend on some players is more than what a replacement player of near value might cost- like JD and Vaz, and maybe even Kike. Add that to what we get from Price coming off the books, and I'm not sure why so many people seem to think we are going to sign 10 Marwin Gonzalezes to replace our 10 free agents-to-be. Granted, finding a good catcher for $7M will not be easy, but improving on Vaz should not be hard at less than $7M. We should be able to find a good DH for less than $22M.yr.

 

It will be hard to replace Bogey (I assume with a 2Bman) and Eovaldi with the money they make now, but here's where was can add price's money. Replacing Wacha, Hill and Strahm with just $16M could be very difficult, but maybe not.

 

We should also know a little more about Casas, Duran, Fitzy, Sanchez, Seabold, Winckowski and others on the farm, who may earn key roles by opening day 2023. Add some new prospects to the list, or some lower level guys who jump ahead, this year, and maybe we don't need to replace every single FA with another one. Then, there are trade opportunities.

 

Our future need not be all doom & gloom.

[moonslav59]

The Sox tried to get Jason Stallings last off-season. Maybe Carson Kelly will be the next target. (The rapid rise of Alek Thomas has pushed Daulton Varsho out of CF and back behind the plate.)

 

I was big on Stallings- mostly because of his D and reputation with pitchers. I must have proposed 10 trades with the Pirates on BTV. I was glad to see we were seriously pursuing him. Maybe we get our prize, this winter.

[moonslav59]

Flashes of what?!!

 

He's got an ERA of 6.08 with a WHIP of 1.61 this year and a career ERA of 5.20 and a career WHIP of 1.40.

 

Not exactly what I would call a building block.

 

"Flashes" means don't look at the whole. It also does not imply flashes of Cy Young.

 

He had a decent 2021 season, which is quite a lengthy "flash," and he's done pretty well in his last 3 starts of 2022:

3.00 ERA/ 1.59 FIP/ .570 OPS Against

 

2021 eleven game "flash:"

3.77 ERA/ 3.27 FIP/ .657 OPS Against

 

[JDavis76]

What percent chance does the current 6th place team have?

 

I haven't looked it up, but I do know the current sox team has roughly a 30% chance according to FanGraphs.

[JDavis76]

I can't get to "wanting it to happen," just yet, but we would likely have a much better longer view, if we had a fire sale in July.

 

I'd like to add that the money we currently spend on some players is more than what a replacement player of near value might cost- like JD and Vaz, and maybe even Kike. Add that to what we get from Price coming off the books, and I'm not sure why so many people seem to think we are going to sign 10 Marwin Gonzalezes to replace our 10 free agents-to-be. Granted, finding a good catcher for $7M will not be easy, but improving on Vaz should not be hard at less than $7M. We should be able to find a good DH for less than $22M.yr.

 

It will be hard to replace Bogey (I assume with a 2Bman) and Eovaldi with the money they make now, but here's where was can add price's money. Replacing Wacha, Hill and Strahm with just $16M could be very difficult, but maybe not.

 

We should also know a little more about Casas, Duran, Fitzy, Sanchez, Seabold, Winckowski and others on the farm, who may earn key roles by opening day 2023. Add some new prospects to the list, or some lower level guys who jump ahead, this year, and maybe we don't need to replace every single FA with another one. Then, there are trade opportunities.

 

Our future need not be all doom & gloom.

 

And your future may not be all unicorns and rainbows either.

[JDavis76]

"Flashes" means don't look at the whole. It also does not imply flashes of Cy Young.

 

He had a decent 2021 season, which is quite a lengthy "flash," and he's done pretty well in his last 3 starts of 2022:

3.00 ERA/ 1.59 FIP/ .570 OPS Against

 

2021 eleven game "flash:"

3.77 ERA/ 3.27 FIP/ .657 OPS Against

 

 

Ok, I hope bloom loves those "flashes" too and signs pivetta to a multi-year contract

[moonslav59]

Ok, I hope bloom loves those "flashes" too and signs pivetta to a multi-year contract

 

No need. He's still got two arbs to go.

[JDavis76]

No need. He's still got two arbs to go.

 

Excellent, I like him in the sox rotation.

[moonslav59]

I haven't looked it up, but I do know the current sox team has roughly a 30% chance according to FanGraphs.

 

Okay, but maybe the 6th place team has a 30% chance or less, and the Sox actually have a higher chance than all but 5 teams and 6 make it.

 

That was why I asked.

[moonslav59]

Excellent, I like him in the sox rotation.

 

Coming from you, that's a vote of confidence.

[JDavis76]

Coming from you, that's a vote of confidence.

 

Coming from the back of his baseball card is all that really matters.....

[Hitch]

I only mentioned the Padres as a possible landing spot for Bogey for the same reason I did JD - the DH spot. Not an exact fit though, I grant you.

 

Edit: Jim Bowden mention the Cardinals for Bogey, in return for 2nd/3rd baseman Nolan Gorman.

 

Right on que, Padres signing Cano to DH.

[JDavis76]

Okay, but maybe the 6th place team has a 30% chance or less, and the Sox actually have a higher chance than all but 5 teams and 6 make it.

 

That was why I asked.

 

I guess a team higher in the standings could actually have a lower % of making the playoffs than the sox.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the orioles have less of a % chance than the sox.

[moonslav59]

I guess a team higher in the standings could actually have a lower % of making the playoffs than the sox.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the orioles have less of a % chance than the sox.

 

That's what I was getting at.

 

Let's say #6 team has a 31% chance, and we have a 30% chance, and everyone in between has less than 30%, are we really all that bad off, by the odds? We might be 1% behind the odds-on favorite of making the 6 slot.

[dgalehouse]

fangraphs projections are meaningless. They will fluctuate with every series played. What is fangraphs anyway? A couple of young stat geeks with a website ?