2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[Bellhorn04]

4 and 1 or 3 and zero sure.

 

You have to draw the line somewhere.

 

Or, we can just have "Quality Outing" that applies to all pitchers, but that might be overkill.

[Bellhorn04]

Pivetta is without quality today.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pivetta is without quality today.

 

The big problem is the Sox are facing Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays by Minny in the Nelson Cruz deal.

 

Ryan was Tampa's 765th-best pitching prospect...

[moonslav59]

You have to draw the line somewhere.

 

Or, we can just have "Quality Outing" that applies to all pitchers, but that might be overkill.

 

I know, but to me, 3 & 0, 4 & 1, 5 & 3 and 8 and 4 seem like more quality than 6 & 3.

[Larry Cook]

The big problem is the Sox are facing Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays by Minny in the Nelson Cruz deal.

 

Ryan was Tampa's 765th-best pitching prospect...

 

Our offense was terrible early today.

[dgalehouse]

Joe Ryan was also Minnesota's Opening Day starter.

 

Ryan has good stuff. I am not the informed fan that I used to be. There are a lot of guys in MLB who I know nothing about , or even ever heard of , who are pretty good.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Joe Ryan was also Minnesota's Opening Day starter.

 

That was my entire point. Tampa has so many prospects that they can spare a future top of the rotation arm for an old DH in a pennant race.

[Bellhorn04]

I know, but to me, 3 & 0, 4 & 1, 5 & 3 and 8 and 4 seem like more quality than 6 & 3.

 

But a big part of the idea of the Quality Start was giving some length, not overly taxing the pen, and not giving the other team a shot at your middle relievers, which at one time was the 'dregs' of the bullpen. 3 & 0 obviously doesn't fit that bill.

 

However, as the game changes to a total staff game, 3 & 0 does become more valuable.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Reading beat writers now stating the obvious, that the Red Sox didn't recruit enough quality pitching depth this winter, relying too much on a return to form by Sale.

 

Maybe the Sox were right, and this is a literal return to form by Sale, who hasn't pitched a full season since his first year in Boston in 2017.

 

The point I'll never agree with is when posters or execs argue that it's just not the right time -- yet -- to invest too heavily in quality pitching. It's always the right time, and you're never going anywhere without it, whether rebuilding or looking for a push over the top.

 

The Red Sox had a losing record in 1997, but after the season traded for Pedro Martinez. Then Dan Duquette immediately locked him up longterm. Was that time right?

[jad]

I know, but to me, 3 & 0, 4 & 1, 5 & 3 and 8 and 4 seem like more quality than 6 & 3.

 

How is 5 and 3 better than 6 and 3? (Explain without invoking WAR).

[Bellhorn04]

How is 5 and 3 better than 6 and 3? (Explain without invoking WAR).

 

I guarantee that was supposed to be 5 and 2.

[Bellhorn04]

Reading beat writers now stating the obvious, that the Red Sox didn't recruit enough quality pitching depth this winter, relying too much on a return to form by Sale.

 

Maybe the Sox were right, and this is a literal return to form by Sale, who hasn't pitched a full season since his first year in Boston in 2017.

 

The point I'll never agree with is when posters or execs argue that it's just not the right time -- yet -- to invest too heavily in quality pitching. It's always the right time, and you're never going anywhere without it, whether rebuilding or looking for a push over the top.

 

The Red Sox had a losing record in 1997, but after the season traded for Pedro Martinez. Then Dan Duquette immediately locked him up longterm. Was that time right?

 

David Price looked like pure quality when we signed him too. He helped win a title but has mostly been in the baggage department.

 

And Sale is a great pitcher who they obviously thought would not be spending so little time on the field.

 

We (the royal we) can find examples to support any position.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

David Price looked like pure quality when we signed him too. He helped win a title but has mostly been in the baggage department.

 

And Sale is a great pitcher who they obviously thought would not be spending so little time on the field.

 

We (the royal we) can find examples to support any position.

 

I guess my position is that it's wrong to skimp when it comes to the most important position.

 

Of course there are many examples of mixed mound history... from this century: maybe the Sox were right letting Pedro walk after '04, but replacing him and Derek Lowe with Wells and Matt Clement was a joke. Lowe won over 100 games post-Boston and started at least 32 games every year for a decade.

 

The Beckett trade was a winner, but Lackey was overrated (especially as a Plan B after losing out on another free agent). Lester was a PR disaster... though Lester-for-Cespedes-for-Porcello turned out OK. Obviously, Price as Plan C wasn't worth the biggest contract in the history of the world. Kimbrel only cost prospects and was a necessary acquisition at the time. The Sale trade was great, the Sale signing not even good. Dombrowski's best pitching move was swapping for and signing Eovaldi.

 

Bloom has been in charge since late '19 and his top transaction was swiping Whitlock from New York...

[notin]

Reading beat writers now stating the obvious, that the Red Sox didn't recruit enough quality pitching depth this winter, relying too much on a return to form by Sale.

 

Maybe the Sox were right, and this is a literal return to form by Sale, who hasn't pitched a full season since his first year in Boston in 2017.

 

The point I'll never agree with is when posters or execs argue that it's just not the right time -- yet -- to invest too heavily in quality pitching. It's always the right time, and you're never going anywhere without it, whether rebuilding or looking for a push over the top.

 

The Red Sox had a losing record in 1997, but after the season traded for Pedro Martinez. Then Dan Duquette immediately locked him up longterm. Was that time right?

 

Maybe they put a lot of faith in the team after 2021? Sale was a non-factor and the team went pretty far.

 

The big problem with investing in pitching is the massive risks. While people mistakenly claim Barnes hasn’t been the same since signing a contract, they often overlook is pretty much true for Sale.

 

It’s easy to say “get more pitching”, but unless you already have it, there’s too much that can and often does go wrong. And sure, fans want the team to take the few bad years to go along with the fewer good years a free agent pitcher would bring. And ask any fan, they tell you they don’t mind the off years. You know, until they show up. Like pesky credit card bills.

[Kimmi]

What about 4 IP and 0 Runs? What about 3 IP and -1 FIP?

 

What about we just go with Game Score and forget about quality starts?

[moonslav59]

Maybe they put a lot of faith in the team after 2021? Sale was a non-factor and the team went pretty far.

 

The big problem with investing in pitching is the massive risks. While people mistakenly claim Barnes hasn’t been the same since signing a contract, they often overlook is pretty much true for Sale.

 

It’s easy to say “get more pitching”, but unless you already have it, there’s too much that can and often does go wrong. And sure, fans want the team to take the few bad years to go along with the fewer good years a free agent pitcher would bring. And ask any fan, they tell you they don’t mind the off years. You know, until they show up. Like pesky credit card bills.

 

Trading for pitching has always worked better for us. Bloom valuing prospects so much might prevent that sort of trade in the near future.

 

This deadline could be very interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

What about we just go with Game Score and forget about quality starts?

 

But Game Score rewards volume of innings, correct?

[moonslav59]

But Game Score rewards volume of innings, correct?

 

As it should be, but artificial cut-offs and using a 4.50 ERA as the definition of quality both seem to be lacking.

[Bellhorn04]

As it should be, but artificial cut-offs and using a 4.50 ERA as the definition of quality both seem to be lacking.

 

Personally I have no problem with 6 and 3 being a Quality Start. It's the 6 innings part that matters most. I get the 4.50 ERA argument. You're going to have to establish an arbitrary baseline somewhere. When you give 6 and 3 you're presumably turning the game over to your best relievers, who should arguably only give up 1 run in 3 innings.

 

And then there's the High Quality Start, which I believe is 7 and 2.

[Bellhorn04]

I also agree with Kimmi's point that if Quality Start doesn't work for you, just go with Game Score. It's much less arbitrary.

[moonslav59]

Personally I have no problem with 6 and 3 being a Quality Start. It's the 6 innings part that matters most. I get the 4.50 ERA argument. You're going to have to establish an arbitrary baseline somewhere. When you give 6 and 3 you're presumably turning the game over to your best relievers, who should arguably only give up 1 run in 3 innings.

 

And then there's the High Quality Start, which I believe is 7 and 2.

 

Going 5-2 let’s your pen let up 1 run in the extra inning they have to go. Not bad, especially with 8 men pens these days.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cora is using Houck perfectly. He goes through 2 times and gets yanked. He’s a very effective pitcher two times through

[Nick]

Question for all you pitching gurus.....

 

How does Whitlock warm up on his game days? Can we assume that Cora/pitching coach lets him know he maybe called? Does his pregame routine differ from say Barnes due to anticipated innings to be pitched? Is he good and warm 'more' than say a traditional closer when he comes in?

 

Or does he warm up like any other pitcher? How do you warm up as a starter that comes in in 5th or 6th or 7th inning to pitch 3 or more innings?

[Nick]

GM IP-(ER) Pitcher

 

01 5.0-(3) Eovoldi

02 5.2-(4) Pivetta

03 3.1-(3) Houck

04 4.1-(1) Wacha Quality

05 4.1-(3) Hill

06 5.0-(2) Eovaldi Quality

07 2.0-(4) Pivetta

08 5.2-(0) Houck Quality

[Bellhorn04]

Going 5-2 let’s your pen let up 1 run in the extra inning they have to go. Not bad, especially with 8 men pens these days.

 

As I said 5-2 should be a QS now.

[Kimmi]

But Game Score rewards volume of innings, correct?

 

Yes, it does. BR's version of Game Score also awards extra points for innings completed after the 4th.

[notin]

Trading for pitching has always worked better for us. Bloom valuing prospects so much might prevent that sort of trade in the near future.

 

This deadline could be very interesting.

 

I agree.

 

Even the Sox free agent success stories at pitcher like Lackey and Eovaldi both started off with multiple terrible seasons with the team…

[Kimmi]

Personally I have no problem with 6 and 3 being a Quality Start. It's the 6 innings part that matters most. I get the 4.50 ERA argument. You're going to have to establish an arbitrary baseline somewhere. When you give 6 and 3 you're presumably turning the game over to your best relievers, who should arguably only give up 1 run in 3 innings.

 

And then there's the High Quality Start, which I believe is 7 and 2.

 

The criteria for a quality start does seem rather arbitrary. That said, I never had an issue with the 4.50 ERA not being "quality". Any starting pitcher who pitches 6 innings and holds the opponent to 3 runs or fewer had done a solid job.

[moonslav59]

The criteria for a quality start does seem rather arbitrary. That said, I never had an issue with the 4.50 ERA not being "quality". Any starting pitcher who pitches 6 innings and holds the opponent to 3 runs or fewer had done a solid job.

 

Isn't 8 IP and 4 ERs even better? It is 4.50, as well.

 

Isn't 5.2 IP and 0-3 ERs better, too?

 

Why does it have to remain so arbitrary?

 

I realize that setting up new parameters will be arbitrary, as well, but it will be fairer and more accurate.

 

Something like this:

 

4 IP 0-1 ERs

5 IP 0-2 ERs

6 IP 0-3 ERs

8 IP 0-4 ERs

 

(One could argue 3 IP and 0 ER as being included, especially with today's trends, but I'd be fine with leaving that one out.)

 

[moonslav59]

I agree.

 

Even the Sox free agent success stories at pitcher like Lackey and Eovaldi both started off with multiple terrible seasons with the team…

 

Think about big extensions given to our own pitchers, too. How many have worked out very well?

 

Lester's did, but was that just arb years covered?

 

Beckett's was not bad.

 

Then, there is Buch, Porcello, Sale and others with some good and some not so good.