2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[harmony]

GM IP-(ER) Pitcher

 

01 5.0-(3) Eovoldi

02 5.2-(4) Pivetta

03 3.1-(3) Houck

04 4.1-(1) Wacha Quality

05 4.1-(3) Hill

06 5.0-(2) Eovaldi Quality

07 2.0-(4) Pivetta

08 5.2-(0) Houck Quality

Different teams deploy their pitching staffs differently.

 

In eight games this season the Seattle Mariners have posted three quality starts under the traditional definition. A starter has gone at least six innings in four games and at least five innings in two others.

 

Through seven games Seattle starters had an ERA of 3.43 while the relievers had an ERA of 2.77.

 

Later this season will the Mariners pay the price for extending their starters early in the season?

[notin]

Isn't 8 IP and 4 ERs even better? It is 4.50, as well.

 

Isn't 5.2 IP and 0-3 ERs better, too?

 

Why does it have to remain so arbitrary?

 

I realize that setting up new parameters will be arbitrary, as well, but it will be fairer and more accurate.

 

Something like this:

 

4 IP 0-1 ERs

5 IP 0-2 ERs

6 IP 0-3 ERs

8 IP 0-4 ERs

 

(One could argue 3 IP and 0 ER as being included, especially with today's trends, but I'd be fine with leaving that one out.)

 

 

What in baseball isn’t arbitrary?

 

They need some quickie guidelines to make everything official. 6 IP and 3 ER. Why not?

 

Why 502 plate appearances? Why 162 IP for an ERA title? I know where the math comes from both (3.1 PA/game and 1 IP/game), but that doesn’t tell me why?

 

And in all of these, the reasons are the same - had to choose something…

[notin]

Think about big extensions given to our own pitchers, too. How many have worked out very well?

 

Lester's did, but was that just arb years covered?

 

Beckett's was not bad.

 

Then, there is Buch, Porcello, Sale and others with some good and some not so good.

 

And there is a big reason.

 

For all of these extensions (especially Beckett’s first but not his second), these pitchers were a lot younger. Most FA pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 and (obviously) have six years minimum of wear and tear.

 

Despite how unpopular it was, history does tell you that Henry’s decision to not extend/sign pitchers over 30 to long term deals did make sense…

[Kimmi]

Isn't 8 IP and 4 ERs even better? It is 4.50, as well.

 

Isn't 5.2 IP and 0-3 ERs better, too?

 

Why does it have to remain so arbitrary?

 

I realize that setting up new parameters will be arbitrary, as well, but it will be fairer and more accurate.

 

Something like this:

 

4 IP 0-1 ERs

5 IP 0-2 ERs

6 IP 0-3 ERs

8 IP 0-4 ERs

 

(One could argue 3 IP and 0 ER as being included, especially with today's trends, but I'd be fine with leaving that one out.)

 

 

Oh I agree with you. There are other starts that I would consider a quality start. In the past, I think a large part of it was that the starter went at least 6 innings. That's not so much the case anymore.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And there is a big reason.

 

For all of these extensions (especially Beckett’s first but not his second), these pitchers were a lot younger. Most FA pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 and (obviously) have six years minimum of wear and tear.

 

Despite how unpopular it was, history does tell you that Henry’s decision to not extend/sign pitchers over 30 to long term deals did make sense…

 

So how many years to offer Eovaldi? Three for $60? $75? He's better than ever, throws five pitches for strikes (72 of 101 pitches last outing), wants to stay in Boston, is the legendary work-out monster lead-the-staff by example veteran pro... and where the Eck would the Sox rotation be without him?

[Bellhorn04]

So how many years to offer Eovaldi? Three for $60? $75? He's better than ever, throws five pitches for strikes (72 of 101 pitches last outing), wants to stay in Boston, is the legendary work-out monster lead-the-staff by example veteran pro... and where the Eck would the Sox rotation be without him?

 

Assuming he has a good 2022, Eovaldi is going to be more expensive than he's worth.

 

I'd offer him 3 @ $20, but he'll likely want and get considerably more, and not from us.

[Nick]

Assuming he has a good 2022, Eovaldi is going to be more expensive than he's worth.

 

I'd offer him 3 @ $20, but he'll likely want and get considerably more, and not from us.

 

In large part it will depend on Paxton's ability to come back and pitch well. I like Eovaldi and I may give him $22M but no more than for 3 years.

 

We finally have Price's $16M coming off and JD's $22M for sure.

 

This will be an exciting winter in my opinion. It should set the tone for next five years, I hope.

 

There should be an attraction playing for Boston with its fanbase. Stadium is full. Team will look to be competitive each year (let's just forget 2020 other than the fact that we got the #4 pick).

 

I'm pretty sure E Rod would rather pitch for the Sox. He took the money and he'll be able to take care of his family very well in exchange for spending 6 months in Detroit for few years. So few fans in such a big stadium.

Edited April 17, 2022 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Assuming he has a good 2022, Eovaldi is going to be more expensive than he's worth.

 

I'd offer him 3 @ $20, but he'll likely want and get considerably more, and not from us.

 

He'll be looking for fair market value, sure. But maybe he also wants to stay, so will be open to compromise.

 

The thing is, there has to come a point where a club serious about building a core of contenders has to invest in quality. What's better for a team all-in: Eovaldi for three years or nine other mediocrities on one-year contracts?

[Nick]

Whitlock threw 10 sliders and got 9 called strikes + whiffs. He also hit 97 and had 12.5 mph of separation between his sinker and changeup. He's ridiculously good. per SoxProspects.

 

He's a throwback....keep rowing.....I know he's married but boy he would be a great pick up for my daughter...lol.

[Nick]

Darwinzon Hernandez pitching line: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP. WooSox lead 9-0 in the top of the fourth inning.

 

At some point, do you evaluate a pitcher solely on WHIP and not on BB/9innings? Please don't be flippant. Does his ability to strike out hitters factor into his walk ratio?

 

If he's allowed to start a 'clean' inning, does it ultimately matter if it's a base on balls or base hits? Base on balls is just one base. Hits can be multiple bases.

 

Say in 10 innings, I rather have Darwinzon pitch with his strike out ability than say Brasier. Brasier can't pitch out of runner on second with no outs without giving up a run. He almost has to be lucky that hard hit balls goes to a fielder.

[Bellhorn04]

He'll be looking for fair market value, sure. But maybe he also wants to stay, so will be open to compromise.

 

The thing is, there has to come a point where a club serious about building a core of contenders has to invest in quality. What's better for a team all-in: Eovaldi for three years or nine other mediocrities on one-year contracts?

 

Eovaldi for 3 years is the answer. But like I say, he'll be looking for more.

[moonslav59]

What in baseball isn’t arbitrary?

 

They need some quickie guidelines to make everything official. 6 IP and 3 ER. Why not?

 

Why 502 plate appearances? Why 162 IP for an ERA title? I know where the math comes from both (3.1 PA/game and 1 IP/game), but that doesn’t tell me why?

 

And in all of these, the reasons are the same - had to choose something…

 

Oh, I understand that, but the tendency is to stick with something forever, even when obvious adjustments make sense.

[moonslav59]

So how many years to offer Eovaldi? Three for $60? $75? He's better than ever, throws five pitches for strikes (72 of 101 pitches last outing), wants to stay in Boston, is the legendary work-out monster lead-the-staff by example veteran pro... and where the Eck would the Sox rotation be without him?

 

He'll probably get over $95M/4, more likely $110M/5.

 

I'd love to bring him back, but it's hard to know how good and how healthy he'll be as he ages.

 

His health has been much better, for us, but he's still missed some time.

[notin]

Oh, I understand that, but the tendency is to stick with something forever, even when obvious adjustments make sense.

 

Very true.

 

The save has gone through several alterations. The quality start might need to as well. But right now the I’m not even sure the QS is recognized as an official stat (or what that even means), so redefining it could be simple. And like WAR, it might even vary depending on who’s counting.

 

OBP, for example, was around forever and was never recognized officially until recently, and sac flies have gone through stages of being recognized and not.

 

It’s all very variable…

[Elktonnick]

I believe the quality start was a stat created by the Boras Corporation as a negotiating strategy in a an effort to get his starters.better deal once he saw the increased use of the bull pen.

[moonslav59]

Very true.

 

The save has gone through several alterations. The quality start might need to as well. But right now the I’m not even sure the QS is recognized as an official stat (or what that even means), so redefining it could be simple. And like WAR, it might even vary depending on who’s counting.

 

OBP, for example, was around forever and was never recognized officially until recently, and sac flies have gone through stages of being recognized and not.

 

It’s all very variable…

 

If the criteria was something like what I suggested, maybe people would pay more attention to that number and percentage.

[moonslav59]

Darwinzon Hernandez pitching line: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP. WooSox lead 9-0 in the top of the fourth inning.

 

At some point, do you evaluate a pitcher solely on WHIP and not on BB/9innings? Please don't be flippant. Does his ability to strike out hitters factor into his walk ratio?

 

If he's allowed to start a 'clean' inning, does it ultimately matter if it's a base on balls or base hits? Base on balls is just one base. Hits can be multiple bases.

 

Say in 10 innings, I rather have Darwinzon pitch with his strike out ability than say Brasier. Brasier can't pitch out of runner on second with no outs without giving up a run. He almost has to be lucky that hard hit balls goes to a fielder.

 

I think the modern style is to look at BB% and K% not BB/9 or K/9, and it makes a ton of sense.

 

If pitcher A K's 2 in an inning where he lets up 1 H and 1 BB and gets a no K out, he K's 2 every 5 batters, and walks one every 5 batters.

 

Play B might get 2 K's, but allow 2 hits and 1 BB and a non K out. He K's 2 every 6 batters.

 

They both have 2K/IP and 1 BB/IP, but pitcher A has a 40% K rate, while B has a 33% K rate. (Player B has a 16.5% BB rate, while A has a 20% BB rate.)

 

Then, there is K%- BB%!

[Kimmi]

He'll probably get over $95M/4, more likely $110M/5.

 

I'd love to bring him back, but it's hard to know how good and how healthy he'll be as he ages.

 

His health has been much better, for us, but he's still missed some time.

 

He'll likely get a 4-year deal from some team. He's 32 years old now, so for me, it would be hard to give him more than 3 years. When he signed his current contract, I thought it might be a year too long.

[notin]

I think the modern style is to look at BB% and K% not BB/9 or K/9, and it makes a ton of sense.

 

If pitcher A K's 2 in an inning where he lets up 1 H and 1 BB and gets a no K out, he K's 2 every 5 batters, and walks one every 5 batters.

 

Play B might get 2 K's, but allow 2 hits and 1 BB and a non K out. He K's 2 every 6 batters.

 

They both have 2K/IP and 1 BB/IP, but pitcher A has a 40% K rate, while B has a 33% K rate. (Player B has a 16.5% BB rate, while A has a 20% BB rate.)

 

Then, there is K%- BB%!

 

Yes, K/9 and BB/9 are kind of usel;ess since no one goes 9. At some point, ERA might face a familiar fate..

[moonslav59]

He'll likely get a 4-year deal from some team. He's 32 years old now, so for me, it would be hard to give him more than 3 years. When he signed his current contract, I thought it might be a year too long.

 

It seems like what you think is the most he should get, 4 years, ends up being one more from someone- sometimes as a team option year with a buyout that sweetens the 4 year part of the deal.

[moonslav59]

Yes, K/9 and BB/9 are kind of usel;ess since no one goes 9. At some point, ERA might face a familiar fate..

 

I'm not so sure. saying someone has a 12 K/9 rate is easier for me to fathom than saying he has a 1.25 K/IP rate.

 

I do think K% will be the stat people look to. That's more about K's per PAs than innings.

[notin]

I'm not so sure. saying someone has a 12 K/9 rate is easier for me to fathom than saying he has a 1.25 K/IP rate.

 

I do think K% will be the stat people look to. That's more about K's per PAs than innings.

 

I think K% works and more important is the K/BB ratio

[moonslav59]

I think K% works and more important is the K/BB ratio

 

I have to start paying attention to K%.

 

I've always looked at K/BB.

[Nick]

GM IP-(ER) Pitcher

01 5.0-(3) Eovoldi

02 5.2-(4) Pivetta

03 3.1-(3) Houck

04 4.1-(1) Wacha Quality

05 4.1-(3) Hill

06 5.0-(2) Eovaldi Quality

07 2.0-(4) Pivetta

08 5.2-(0) Houck Quality

09 5.0-(0) Wacha Quality

 

How to speed up games? Just watch Wacha pitch. Get the ball back, throw. Similar to Whitlock/Houck.

 

He looks pretty darn good to me. Yeah I know it's the Twinkies. Great command.

[mvp 78]

I'm not so sure. saying someone has a 12 K/9 rate is easier for me to fathom than saying he has a 1.25 K/IP rate.

 

I do think K% will be the stat people look to. That's more about K's per PAs than innings.

 

I don't think many use k/ip, it's k/9 which seems more tangible to me.

[Nick]

Are we getting hurt by long balls so far this year? Even Whitlock gave up a big home run in his first outing. 2 by Hill today.

[moonslav59]

I don't think many use k/ip, it's k/9 which seems more tangible to me.

 

Agreed, but K% is a better tool. It will just take getting used to it.

[Bellhorn04]

Are we getting hurt by long balls so far this year? Even Whitlock gave up a big home run in his first outing. 2 by Hill today.

 

Before today's game the Red Sox had given up 10 homers. The major league average was 9.

[harmony]

Before today's game the Red Sox had given up 10 homers. The major league average was 9.

Through Sunday, Seattle pitchers had surrendered 15 home runs, second-most in the league, despite a team ERA of 3.14, third-best in the league.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2022-pitching.shtml

[Nick]

GM IP-(ER) Pitcher

 

01 5.0-(3) Eovoldi

02 5.2-(4) Pivetta

03 3.1-(3) Houck

04 4.1-(1) Wacha Quality

05 4.1-(3) Hill

06 5.0-(2) Eovaldi Quality

07 2.0-(4) Pivetta

08 5.2-(0) Houck Quality

09 5.0-(0) Wacha Quality

10 4.2-(4) Hill

11 4.1-(1) Eovaldi Quality