The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Dojji]

27.5% isn't great, but it's better than Dalbec. Which one is more likely to become Chris Davis?

 

Yes, when we collect some of the greatest hitters of the modern era (Manny, Papi), the team is more likely to be better. Agree 100%.

 

The difference is we don't have to pay a king's ransom for Dalbec. the opportunity cost for taking a risk on Dalbec is FAR lower than a guy like Mountcastle, and when you add the cost into the equation, a smaller risk becomes a greater risk.

[Dojji]

I'm glad we kept the undisciplined hitter, Devers.

 

Because the fact that it worked once means it will always work. And again there's a huge difference between promoting a player to the roster and trading for one in a blockbuster deal.

[notin]

The difference is we don't have to pay a king's ransom for Dalbec. the opportunity cost for taking a risk on Dalbec is FAR lower than a guy like Mountcastle, and when you add the cost into the equation, a smaller risk becomes a greater risk.

 

And the Sox stil have Casas knocking on the door. They shouldn't count on him, of course, but he also shouldn't be forgotten about.

 

And Dalbec was second (behind Jr. Vlad) in OPS among all AL 1B after June 10. That includes Mountcastle. Is this even an upgrade?

[moonslav59]

Because the fact that it worked once means it will always work. And again there's a huge difference between promoting a player to the roster and trading for one in a blockbuster deal.

 

I totally agree, but we'd be replacing Dalbec at 1B, so I'm not sure undisciplined hitting is a step back.

 

I also think a line-up with a variety of hitters works best.

 

His .324 career OBP outweighs the ks and blows Dalbec's away.

[mvp 78]

The difference is we don't have to pay a king's ransom for Dalbec. the opportunity cost for taking a risk on Dalbec is FAR lower than a guy like Mountcastle, and when you add the cost into the equation, a smaller risk becomes a greater risk.

 

I get it, but I think selling prospects at their peak in value is a good way to manage your investments. Mountcastle could move to LF when Casas is ready.

[mvp 78]

And the Sox stil have Casas knocking on the door. They shouldn't count on him, of course, but he also shouldn't be forgotten about.

 

And Dalbec was second (behind Jr. Vlad) in OPS among all AL 1B after June 10. That includes Mountcastle. Is this even an upgrade?

 

It's an upgrade if you think Dalbec won't repeat that performance.

 

If I was GM, I'd just hold onto Dalbec and try to find him another position once Casas is ready.

[notin]

It's an upgrade if you think Dalbec won't repeat that performance.

 

If I was GM, I'd just hold onto Dalbec and try to find him another position once Casas is ready.

 

 

Yes, we could upgrade all the way to the .796 OPS of Mountcastle from the .792 OPS of Dalbec. Is Mountcastle any more of a guarantee to repeat?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also this team needs speed. Again, this is a contact hitter's park. We need guys who can run, we need to be able to play smartball and take advantage of that high contact style, and we need guys who can play that style. A few thumpers is alright, but we should be all about putting wood on leather and that means speed really compliments what we're here to do. We've always been at our best when we have speed at the top of the lineup. And right now our 2021 stolen bases leader is the freaking catcher.

 

If I'm looking to bring this team forward next year, I'm bringing in a speed guy, maybe a speedy shortstop if Bogaerts is ready to Ernie Banks himself. Also maybe look to pick up a 4th OF with some wheels, to come in off the bench to run a bit and play good OF defense.

 

This is so underrated. Anyone who saw the rookie Siri flying around the bases last night or remembers how helpless it felt watching pre-popcorn Arozarena abuse the Sox knows that speed is non-existent on Boston's current roster. And I'm not just talking about stolen bases -- but it's notable that the great 2018 champs were third in SBs with 125. They dropped off to 68 the next year... and had 21 this season.

 

Mookie doesn't make the difference in a hundred extra bags, but right now the Sox don't even have one guy who can score from first on a liner over shortstop like Arozarena did in the ALDS.

[moonslav59]

Yes, we could upgrade all the way to the .796 OPS of Mountcastle from the .792 OPS of Dalbec. Is Mountcastle any more of a guarantee to repeat?

 

I wouldn't trade top assets for Mountcastle over someone like Montas, but he is significantly better than Dalbec, especially on defense.

 

He's younger and had good minor league numbers (as did Dalbec.)

[Bellhorn04]

And the Sox stil have Casas knocking on the door. They shouldn't count on him, of course, but he also shouldn't be forgotten about.

 

And Dalbec was second (behind Jr. Vlad) in OPS among all AL 1B after June 10. That includes Mountcastle. Is this even an upgrade?

 

The question with Dalbec's bat now seems to be the streakiness. As mvp has alluded to, he was basically shelved in the postseason, presumably because he looked to be in one of his ice cold streaks.

[moonslav59]

The question with Dalbec's bat now seems to be the streakiness. As mvp has alluded to, he was basically shelved in the postseason, presumably because he looked to be in one of his ice cold streaks.

 

And, unlike JBJ, his streaky bat is not carried along by stellar defense.

[mvp 78]

Yes, we could upgrade all the way to the .796 OPS of Mountcastle from the .792 OPS of Dalbec. Is Mountcastle any more of a guarantee to repeat?

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

And, unlike JBJ, his streaky bat is not carried along by stellar defense.

 

Peaks and valleys. It's fine for a guy making league minimum, but hard to build around him. I'd rather a consistent performer.

[mvp 78]

Yes, we could upgrade all the way to the .796 OPS of Mountcastle from the .792 OPS of Dalbec. Is Mountcastle any more of a guarantee to repeat?

 

Mountcastle 1.4 fWAR, age 24

Dalbec 0.7 fWAR, age 26

[Dojji]

I totally agree, but we'd be replacing Dalbec at 1B, so I'm not sure undisciplined hitting is a step back.

 

I also think a line-up with a variety of hitters works best.

 

His .324 career OBP outweighs the ks and blows Dalbec's away.

 

Not until we know where his batting average levels out. If Mountcastle stays at around .250, or can improve, he'll be productive. if he drops to .230 or lower then it's gonna be awful hard for him to generate enough power to make up for that.

 

This is obviously true for Dalbec as well, but either way, I can't imagine the Orioles being willing to trade young power hitters when they have so few of them. until they get their absolute disaster of a rotation dealt with Mountcastle is just about the only draw they have. When Mountcastle gets expensive it's another story, but the last thing the Orioles should be doing right now is trading their only cost controlled star.

 

Bottom line, if I'm looking for talent to trade for, I generally don't look for it on a 111-loss team.

 

Ask me what I'd do to upgrade at 1B and I'd look at players with a couple option years left on a team going nowhere. Jose Ramirez from the Guardians is the guy I'd target. His options are starting to get expensive but give the team 2 years of control. We can take the hit of offering Ramirez an extension better than Cleveland can. And Ramirez is a third baseman so that gives the team some roster flexibility.

[notin]

Mountcastle 1.4 fWAR, age 24

Dalbec 0.7 fWAR, age 26

 

There really isn't enough of an upgrade justify giving up too many other pieces to get Mountcastle...

[mvp 78]

I mean, I'd take Cedric Mullens.

[mvp 78]

There really isn't enough of an upgrade justify giving up too many other pieces to get Mountcastle...

 

It depends on what the other pieces are.

[moonslav59]

Peaks and valleys. It's fine for a guy making league minimum, but hard to build around him. I'd rather a consistent performer.

 

Me, too, but I think peaks and valleys are not as bad as some think they are.

 

The thing about Dalbec is, is he drove in a lot of runs, some even when slumping.

 

He drove in 17 runs in May, despite a .672 OPS.

 

He was 1 RBI below Bogey, who had 150 more PAs and 7 more XBHs.

He was 5th in RBI but 8th in PAs.

 

RBI per PA:

.172 Dalbec

.170 Devers

.168 Renfroe

.156 JD

.131 Bogey

.104 Verdugo

.103 Kike (lead off)

 

[Hugh2]

I get it, but I think selling prospects at their peak in value is a good way to manage your investments. Mountcastle could move to LF when Casas is ready.

 

My problem with this statement is how do you know when someone's peak value is? your logic is 100% sound. But doesn't peak mean that value will go down? What information could you have about a guy that he's about to deteriorate that other teams would not have? aside from hiding medicals.

 

We can guess, and sell prospects when their value is high, but to assume peak value would be to guess they're going to regress. If we did that with guys like Mookie, Bogaerts, Vazuez etc. The return would have been a fraction of the value they have provided for the Sox over the years.

 

I think it's all about balance, the purpose of the farm system is to supplement the big club, and sometimes that means holding your chips and other times it means trading them away. I don't necessarily believe that trading a guy away means you believe you're trading him at peak value either (not saying you said that just saying it for conversational purposes).

 

I think G.M.s sometimes trade away guys that they're legitimately sad to see leave their system but they traded from a position of strength for a team need. With that in mind, there is a hypothetical scenario where you trade one of and keep the other of Dalbec/Casas.

[moonslav59]

Not until we know where his batting average levels out. If Mountcastle stays at around .250, or can improve, he'll be productive. if he drops to .230 or lower then it's gonna be awful hard for him to generate enough power to make up for that.

 

This is obviously true for Dalbec as well, but either way, I can't imagine the Orioles being willing to trade young power hitters when they have so few of them. until they get their absolute disaster of a rotation dealt with Mountcastle is just about the only draw they have. When Mountcastle gets expensive it's another story, but the last thing the Orioles should be doing right now is trading their only cost controlled star.

 

Bottom line, if I'm looking for talent to trade for, I generally don't look for it on a 111-loss team.

 

Ask me what I'd do to upgrade at 1B and I'd look at players with a couple option years left on a team going nowhere. Jose Ramirez from the Guardians is the guy I'd target. His options are starting to get expensive but give the team 2 years of control. We can take the hit of offering Ramirez an extension better than Cleveland can. And Ramirez is a third baseman so that gives the team some roster flexibility.

 

The 111 loss teams are more likely to trade top players.

 

I am in agreement on Mountcastle, but Means or Mullins would be great targets.

[mvp 78]

Conversation originally started with me saying:

Duran/Mata

for

Mountcastle/Means

 

Then moon said he wanted to do that deal, but for a grab bag of prospects including Dalbec, which I was also fine with because it still included Means. I think Mountcastle is an improvement upon Dalbec, but I don't see the Sox doing a 3 for 1 deal for Mountcastle that included Dalbec and other legit prospects.

[mvp 78]

My problem with this statement is how do you know when someone's peak value is? your logic is 100% sound. But doesn't peak mean that value will go down? What information could you have about a guy that he's about to deteriorate that other teams would not have? aside from hiding medicals.

 

We can guess, and sell prospects when their value is high, but to assume peak value would be to guess they're going to regress. If we did that with guys like Mookie, Bogaerts, Vazuez etc. The return would have been a fraction of the value they have provided for the Sox over the years.

 

I think it's all about balance, the purpose of the farm system is to supplement the big club, and sometimes that means holding your chips and other times it means trading them away. I don't necessarily believe that trading a guy away means you believe you're trading him at peak value either (not saying you said that just saying it for conversational purposes).

 

I think G.M.s sometimes trade away guys that they're legitimately sad to see leave their system but they traded from a position of strength for a team need. With that in mind, there is a hypothetical scenario where you trade one of and keep the other of Dalbec/Casas.

 

I don't know the peak value. I'm sure Bloom has a better idea of a prospect playing over their heads. There were lots of calls from posters wanting to trade Betts and Bogaerts 7 years ago. I wasn't one of them. Sometimes you trade guys because you have a greater need at another position. Sometimes you trade guys because your organization values a different type of hitter or pitcher. There are lots of reasons to trade a guy. It's just up to Bloom to make sure that the value he receives is commensurate with what is being given up.

[mvp 78]

Me, too, but I think peaks and valleys are not as bad as some think they are.

 

The thing about Dalbec is, is he drove in a lot of runs, some even when slumping.

 

He drove in 17 runs in May, despite a .672 OPS.

 

He was 1 RBI below Bogey, who had 150 more PAs and 7 more XBHs.

He was 5th in RBI but 8th in PAs.

 

RBI per PA:

.172 Dalbec

.170 Devers

.168 Renfroe

.156 JD

.131 Bogey

.104 Verdugo

.103 Kike (lead off)

 

 

As you said, RBI is generally inflated or deflated depending on who is ahead of you in the order. Swap Kiké and Dalbec and I bet Kiké's RBI #s look good.

[Dojji]

I mean, I'd take Cedric Mullens.

 

In another 12 months I'd take Cedric Mullens. Smells to much like a 1 year wonder.

[moonslav59]

As you said, RBI is generally inflated or deflated depending on who is ahead of you in the order. Swap Kiké and Dalbec and I bet Kiké's RBI #s look good.

 

Maybe, but these numbers tell a tale. Look at others besides Kike...

 

PAs with RISP in 2021:

212 Devers

180 JD

161 Bogey

160 Renfroe

145 Verdugo

135 Vaz

135 Dalbec

119 Kike

 

PAs with Men on base

341 Devers

302 JD

288 Bogey

266 Renfroe

261 Verdugo

221 Vaz

221 Dalbec

202 Kike

 

[notin]

In another 12 months I'd take Cedric Mullens. Smells to much like a 1 year wonder.

 

I'd rather get the next Mullens than the current one. I agree he does seem lie he just had a great year and might not be so likely to have more. His BABIP last year and the shortened versions of 2020 give e a little cause for alarm...

[mvp 78]

I'd rather get the next Mullens than the current one. I agree he does seem lie he just had a great year and might not be so likely to have more. His BABIP last year and the shortened versions of 2020 give e a little cause for alarm...

 

I would agree but he made a pretty substantial change in his hitting last offseason when he decided to give up on hitting right handed. Is the power legit? IDK. He has a nice swing and could still be a very productive hitter at 15-20 HR's.

[mvp 78]

He also may just really enjoy Camden yards:

 

22 HR - home

8 HR - away

[mvp 78]

Mullins 2021 expected HR per ballpark:

 

BAL 27

BOS 26

NYY 40

KC 16