The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[notin]

That has to be the plan- with the Schwarber re-sign the only real possible option.

 

Even that might not be a hiccup.

 

Schwarber to LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2b?

 

I know Kike was an outstanding CF, but he is also an extremely good infielder who is second in DRS at 2B over the past 3 seasons, trailing only Kolten Wong (28 to 21) despite Wong playing over twice as many innings at the position.

 

Signing Schwarber should impact Duran more than it does Dalbec...

[mvp 78]

Great season .

 

Wish list

1 extend Devers YES

2 extend Kike NO

3trade Xander NO, KEEP AND EXTED

4 trade JDM supplemented If needed NO

5 trade Bobby . NO, RETURN WOULD BE TOO LOW

6Sign Kyle YES

7sign Bryant NO

8Sign Marcus Semien YES

9Trade Duran NO, RETURN WOULD BE TOO LOW

10 trade Renfroe NO

11.Sign Izzy YES

12trade Arroyo or release DON'T CARE

13Promote Casas NO, UNLESS YOU ARE TALKING AFTER ASB

14 sign Ray NO TOO MUCH $$$

15Sign Verlander NO, OLD AND BROKEN DOWN

16 transition Whit to starter FINE

17 trade Barnes supplemented NO, WOULD GET NO RETURN

18 Houck to compete for closer . FINE

19 if no verlander look for Thor . NO, ARE INJURED SP'S ARE FUN

20 jettison Perez Erod Richards Darwinzon sawamura, GET RID OF EVERYONE?

21Keep Pivetta in Pen NO

22Keep Robles FINE

I know this is an insane list but I’d be happy for a few of these to come to fruition.The Farm is pretty decent will surely help either in player acquisitions now or supplement what we have

 

Uhhh

[Bellhorn04]

I think $7M is a high price tag for a catcher with not even 1 fWAR this season.

 

Defensive WAR for catchers has to be one of the most suspect numbers, though.

 

I expect Bloom has his own numbers, and maybe even some anecdotal evidence, he will use to make the decision on Vazquez.

[Bellhorn04]

Chris Taylor is a perfectly average player who can't hit a breaking balls and offspeed stuff. His whiff and k rates are bottom 10%. His hard hit % is well below average and he relies on his speed which will continue to diminish as he gets older. Is he good enough to push Verdugo or Renfroe to the bench? Maybe? I wouldn't start him against RHP and put Verdugo on the bench though.

 

I don't care much about Taylor, but he's definitely been better than average. 3.1 fWAR this year.

[mvp 78]

They may or may not use Barnes in that role. but his pre-finger slice 2021 was actually quite stellar.

 

It's really going to come down to how Houck and Whitlock are used. If both stay in the pen (my choice), then one probably handles the closing/high leverage and the other, along with Taylor, Barnes, Brasier, Sawamura, and maybe Valdez and/or Darwinzon Hernandez can give the Sox what looks like it could be a pretty formidable bullpen. But if one or both move to the rotation, then it puts question marks potentially all over the staff, including in the closing/high leverage role, where Barnes certainly remains a candidate.

 

(Of course, not all question marks are answered negatively.)

 

There was concern in ST that Barnes wouldn't hold up as the closer. I'm fine with him being the 7th/8th inning guy when his stuff returns.

[notin]

Defensive WAR for catchers has to be one of the most suspect numbers, though.

 

I expect Bloom has his own numbers, and maybe even some anecdotal evidence, he will use to make the decision on Vazquez.

 

Just keep Vaz and Plawecki. It ain't broken...

[notin]

There was concern in ST that Barnes wouldn't hold up as the closer. I'm fine with him being the 7th/8th inning guy when his stuff returns.

 

Well, if there is any truth to the impact of the pepper slicing incident, can we really hold that against Barnes? Injuries can derail any player...

[mvp 78]

Giving ERod QO strikes me as a no-brainer, and I am far from his biggest supporter.

 

I do think one of Whitlock or Houck moves to the rotation, where we have no idea what to expect. Sox have 3 starters lined up for next season already under contract. If ERod makes 4, then maybe they will think twice about moving Houck/Whitlock there...

 

I offer it because I think he'll most likely opt out. May as well get the comp pick. If he stays? At least then you have a guy that can get on the bump every 5 days and will keep you competitive.

[mvp 78]

Fun fact:

 

AL First Base OPS Leaders from 6-10-21 to the end of the season

 

1. Vlad Guerrero - .955

2. Bobby Dalbec - .916

3. Matt Olson - .897

 

 

 

So why should the Sox replace this guy?

 

I think you stick with him because he's very cheap. If he sucks, just send him to AAA. If he's great, you can find a way to fit him on the roster even when Casas is ready.

[Nick]

Just keep Vaz and Plawecki. It ain't broken...

 

Absolutely you're correct.

 

We have other areas of concern. Do go create one.

[mvp 78]

He really was two different pitchers, this year.

 

Despite walking too many batters, all year, his OPS against was...

 

.574 in his first 159 PAs against (.301 BAbip) 2.68 ERA/1.297 WHIP

 

.948 in his last 117 PAs against (.349 BAbip) 6.48 ERA/1.680 WHIP

 

I guess what I meant by deceivingly good was that he was pretty good for most of the season.

 

His OPS against was under .637 for 4 months.

 

.856 in July (.440 BAbip)

1.152 in September (.333 BAbip)

 

"Most" of the season, but it's really only 58%. Pretty close to half IMO.

[mvp 78]

Even that might not be a hiccup.

 

Schwarber to LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2b?

 

I know Kike was an outstanding CF, but he is also an extremely good infielder who is second in DRS at 2B over the past 3 seasons, trailing only Kolten Wong (28 to 21) despite Wong playing over twice as many innings at the position.

 

Signing Schwarber should impact Duran more than it does Dalbec...

 

I think you have to keep Kiké in CF. He's just too good out there.

[Nick]

Even that might not be a hiccup.

 

Schwarber to LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2b?

 

I know Kike was an outstanding CF, but he is also an extremely good infielder who is second in DRS at 2B over the past 3 seasons, trailing only Kolten Wong (28 to 21) despite Wong playing over twice as many innings at the position.

 

Signing Schwarber should impact Duran more than it does Dalbec...

 

This is forward way of thinking. JD will eventually leave. Kike at 2B is an upgrade over Arroyo. Schwarber will be protected by the Wall in 81 games. He can resume his DH duties in 2023.

 

It's also not out of question to think Kike can play SS if and when that time comes. Will be much cheaper option than paying someone $30M. We'll need to save that money for Devers.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Even that might not be a hiccup.

 

Schwarber to LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2b?

 

I know Kike was an outstanding CF, but he is also an extremely good infielder who is second in DRS at 2B over the past 3 seasons, trailing only Kolten Wong (28 to 21) despite Wong playing over twice as many innings at the position.

 

Signing Schwarber should impact Duran more than it does Dalbec...

 

I could see Schwarber playing 1B vs some tough righties (Dalbec sits) and LF all the other games. (Verdugo to CF/Kike to 2B or Verdugo to RF vs some RHPs as Renfroe sits)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He did great in 2020, also. Basically, he sucked for April and May and a few stretches here and there.

 

His defense also improved, but it started out so badly, he's still only near acceptable.

 

To me, he should be viewed as our FT 1Bman for 2022, with a platoon partner available, if needed.

 

Dalbec's platoon partner just may turn out to be Casas, who bats lefty. Is it a stretch to say Casas has a better chance to make the Opening Day roster than Duran? Both have to play, no matter where they land, but there may be more PT at first than in the outfield next year.

 

I'm saying this because I don't think there's any chance JD will opt out, with the uncertainty of the CBA... and that means Schwarber is gone.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely you're correct.

 

We have other areas of concern. Do go create one.

 

Are we sure it isn't broken though?

[mvp 78]

Dalbec's platoon partner just may turn out to be Casas, who bats lefty. Is it a stretch to say Casas has a better chance to make the Opening Day roster than Duran? Both have to play, no matter where they land, but there may be more PT at first than in the outfield next year.

 

Casas isn't up before May at the earliest.

[Nick]

Are we sure it isn't broken though?

 

Not as broken is what I meant. Sure, if we get the pitching situation squared away, by all means upgrade our catching.

[Nick]

November 3rd will be the 7th game. So by November 9th at the latest, we'll know the fate of JD, E Rod, Schwarber and Vaz.

 

Then Bloom will go searching.....

[Nick]

Why is it so hard to find information/status of Noah Song?

 

By my calculation, his flight school training should have been completed.

 

Any military guys out there?

[moonslav59]

"Most" of the season, but it's really only 58%. Pretty close to half IMO.

 

He was good in August, too. (4 of 6 months is 67%)

 

Plus, I just used the "first half- second half" numbers based off the ALL Star Game. Ottavino actually did well up to July 21st.

 

.559 OPS Against/ 2.54 ERA.

 

That was the team's 96th game or 59% of the season, which is just barely closer to 2/3 than 1/2.

 

After July 21, he did this:

 

8 games: 1.011 OPS Against

8 games .500 OPS Against

2 games 1.700 OPS Against

4 games .231 OPS Against

Last 5 gms .1.738 OPS Against

 

Just about every RP'er can be broken down this way to show that just a handful or two bad games skew their numbers, but this seems rather extreme. Ottavino was pretty good over his first 42 games, then had 2 good stretches of 8 and 4 games sandwiched around 3 bad stretches of 8, 2 and 5 games of horrendous outings.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

.559 OPS Against/ 2.54 ERA.

 

That was the team's 96th game or 59% of the season, which is just barely closer to 2/3 than 1/2.

 

Increased it by a whole percentage point did you... Wow.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, if there is any truth to the impact of the pepper slicing incident, can we really hold that against Barnes? Injuries can derail any player...

 

The weird thing about the story is he cut his left thumb. That part makes sense, since he is right-handed and presumably holds a knife righty. But he didn't say if the injury somehow affected his balance or delivery when throwing righty...

[notin]

The Notin Plan

 

1B: Dalbec. And eventually Casas is he makes a case for himself, which he is very capable of doing.

2B: Kike Hernandez. CF defense will suffer, but 2B defense will improve

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts. Opt out is a concern, but after the Great Shortstop Re-Shuffling of 2021, Boston might still be his ideal landing spot anyway.

LF: Schwarber: He won't exercise his part of the mutual option, but he can still come back

CF: Verdugo: Not my favorite for CF, but if Kike plays 2B, he is the Last Man Standing for the job

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez. I know there is a chance he opts out, but for now I will assume he doesn't.

 

BN: Plawecki, Arroyo, OF capable of CF (Jeisson Rosario? FA?)

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and 2 acquistions that can include ERod either via QO or extension.

 

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, Valdez, Davis, DHernandez

 

Darwinzon and Duran might be adequate trade bait to fill a pitching role or two. I know Oakland will be trying to move a bunch of arbitration eligibles, although Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt each have one year. Montas has two, but Duran probably isn't an attractive enough piece to get him. Pitchers with roughly the same BTV value as Duran include Sonny Gray (Cincinnati), Casey Mize (Detroit), Kyle Muller (Atlanta), Chris Flexen (Seattle), Joe Musgrove (San Diego), and Cal Quantrill and Aaron Civale (Cleveland).

 

I don't see Detroit moving Casey Mize here. Atlanta, San Diego and Seattle are both largely all set with young outfield talent either in MLB already or beating down the door. That leaves Cincinnati (30th in fWAR for CF last year, but is Duran the solution?) and Cleveland. Per Roster Resource, the Cleveland 2022 OF features Harold Ramirez, Myles Straw and a Bradley Zimmer/Oscar Mercado platoon. Very, very weak. Now they are far more likely to move around the middle infield depth problem to solve the OF as opposed to dealing Civale or McKenzie, but it's not the most ridiculous solution, either. And clearly BTV would call it fair, not that theyare the end-all of trade value. But they do better than I could on my own.

 

And at the very least, arbitration eligible closer Lou Trivino (Oakland) needs to be on the radar in another potential deal. His BTV trade value is actually very low, at a surplus of $1.1 million. So either he is undervalued or is expected to get a substantial raise from last years's $912,000 salary...

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's platoon partner just may turn out to be Casas, who bats lefty. Is it a stretch to say Casas has a better chance to make the Opening Day roster than Duran? Both have to play, no matter where they land, but there may be more PT at first than in the outfield next year.

 

I'm saying this because I don't think there's any chance JD will opt out, with the uncertainty of the CBA... and that means Schwarber is gone.

 

I agree. I seriously doubt we sign someone like Shaw to platoon with Dalbec. I think we wait it out and hope he doesn't have such a bad slow start to 2022. Like MVP, I would not count on Casas anytime before May or even June/July.

[moonslav59]

Increased it by a whole percentage point did you... Wow.

 

Just enough to make it closer to 2/3 than 1/2.

 

LOL!

[notin]

The weird thing about the story is he cut his left thumb. That part makes sense, since he is right-handed and presumably holds a knife righty. But he didn't say if the injury somehow affected his balance or delivery when throwing righty...

 

I suppose it also depends how particular he is. I remember an old SI story about how Jerry Rice would try in multiple jerseys before every game to find one that just felt right. Maybe that plastic fixture in his glove just threw Barnes off his game somewhat. A lot of athletes are very particular...

[notin]

I think you have to keep Kiké in CF. He's just too good out there.

 

Nope. I don't have to. He's really good anywhere.

 

Anyway, that only matters if they bring back Schwarber...

[moonslav59]

The Notin Plan

 

1B: Dalbec. And eventually Casas is he makes a case for himself, which he is very capable of doing.

2B: Kike Hernandez. CF defense will suffer, but 2B defense will improve

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts. Opt out is a concern, but after the Great Shortstop Re-Shuffling of 2021, Boston might still be his ideal landing spot anyway.

LF: Schwarber: He won't exercise his part of the mutual option, but he can still come back

CF: Verdugo: Not my favorite for CF, but if Kike plays 2B, he is the Last Man Standing for the job

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez. I know there is a chance he opts out, but for now I will assume he doesn't.

 

BN: Plawecki, Arroyo, OF capable of CF (Jeisson Rosario? FA?)

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and 2 acquistions that can include ERod either via QO or extension.

 

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, Valdez, Davis, DHernandez

 

Darwinzon and Duran might be adequate trade bait to fill a pitching role or two. I know Oakland will be trying to move a bunch of arbitration eligibles, although Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt each have one year. Montas has two, but Duran probably isn't an attractive enough piece to get him. Pitchers with roughly the same BTV value as Duran include Sonny Gray (Cincinnati), Casey Mize (Detroit), Kyle Muller (Atlanta), Chris Flexen (Seattle), Joe Musgrove (San Diego), and Cal Quantrill and Aaron Civale (Cleveland).

 

I don't see Detroit moving Casey Mize here. Atlanta, San Diego and Seattle are both largely all set with young outfield talent either in MLB already or beating down the door. That leaves Cincinnati (30th in fWAR for CF last year, but is Duran the solution?) and Cleveland. Per Roster Resource, the Cleveland 2022 OF features Harold Ramirez, Myles Straw and a Bradley Zimmer/Oscar Mercado platoon. Very, very weak. Now they are far more likely to move around the middle infield depth problem to solve the OF as opposed to dealing Civale or McKenzie, but it's not the most ridiculous solution, either. And clearly BTV would call it fair, not that theyare the end-all of trade value. But they do better than I could on my own.

 

And at the very least, arbitration eligible closer Lou Trivino (Oakland) needs to be on the radar in another potential deal. His BTV trade value is actually very low, at a surplus of $1.1 million. So either he is undervalued or is expected to get a substantial raise from last years's $912,000 salary...

 

So, 2 SP'ers (FA, QO or trade), Schwarber and a trade for RP'er, maybe involving Duran and DHern. Sounds plausible.

[notin]

Dalbec's platoon partner just may turn out to be Casas, who bats lefty. Is it a stretch to say Casas has a better chance to make the Opening Day roster than Duran? Both have to play, no matter where they land, but there may be more PT at first than in the outfield next year.

 

I'm saying this because I don't think there's any chance JD will opt out, with the uncertainty of the CBA... and that means Schwarber is gone.

 

Unless Bloom starts reading my posts!!!

 

I can see him now. "Brilliant!! This has to be the plan going forward!!! I couldn't possibly have figured out a better one!!"

 

Sure, he's probably being sarcastic, but that doesn't show up in text...