The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Swiharts Ghost]

Blame it on a pepper...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-matt-barnes-suffered-bizarre-thumb-injury-late-season

 

If this is indeed Accurate ? That’s his Rutter folks without the Rutter you have zero control. I would like to strike my trade Matt Until further evaluation in spring .....ouch and ouch for this years team.My my what could have been .Shiiiiiit

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Blame it on a pepper...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-matt-barnes-suffered-bizarre-thumb-injury-late-season

 

I remember reading that, but then they activated him and Barnes pitched an inning in the ALDS. I just found it odd that never during the many shaky Red Sox playoff relief outings -- including their first two losses to Houston -- did any uniformed personnel publicly lament missing their All-Star closer. Maybe it was because of his performance in the second half?

 

Btw: Barnes leads the AL in blown saves the past three years with 18. Ottavino is second with 16. Liam Hendriks is next with 14, followed by Taylor Rogers 12, then Chapman and four others with 11.

 

For what it's worth: Hendriks leads the AL with 77 saves in that span, and Chapman is second with 70. Barnes is 10th with 37, one behind Hansel Robles (and his 8 blown saves).

 

So, from 2019-2021, Barnes has 37 saves with 18 blown saves... For those pining for Rasiel Iglesias in '22: 34 saves with only 5 blown saves the last three years.

Edited October 25, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Swiharts Ghost]

I remember reading that, but then they activated him and Barnes pitched an inning in the ALDS. I just found it odd that never during the many shaky Red Sox playoff relief outings -- including their first two losses to Houston -- did any uniformed personnel publicly lament missing their All-Star closer. Maybe it was because of his performance in the second half?

 

Btw: Barnes leads the AL in blown saves the past three years with 18. Ottavino is second with 16. Liam Hendriks is next with 14, followed by Taylor Rogers 12, then Chapman and four others with 11.

 

For what it's worth: Hendriks leads the AL with 77 saves in that span, and Chapman is second with 70. Barnes is 10th with 37, one behind Hansel Robles (and his 8 blown saves).

 

So, from 2019-2021, Barnes has 37 saves with 18 blown saves... For those pining for Rasiel Iglesias in '22: 34 saves with only 5 blown saves the last three years.

 

Yikes yeah we can do better that Matt .But how does that look like ? Demote him to low leverage ?or trade to a team like the Rockies or Marlins with The thought of less pressure cooker City ? I’d atleast start calling these type teams .

[notin]

Blame it on a pepper...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-matt-barnes-suffered-bizarre-thumb-injury-late-season

 

He just signed a multimillion dollar deal. One would think he could afford freakin’ Door Dash!!

[notin]

I remember reading that, but then they activated him and Barnes pitched an inning in the ALDS. I just found it odd that never during the many shaky Red Sox playoff relief outings -- including their first two losses to Houston -- did any uniformed personnel publicly lament missing their All-Star closer. Maybe it was because of his performance in the second half?

 

Btw: Barnes leads the AL in blown saves the past three years with 18. Ottavino is second with 16. Liam Hendriks is next with 14, followed by Taylor Rogers 12, then Chapman and four others with 11.

 

For what it's worth: Hendriks leads the AL with 77 saves in that span, and Chapman is second with 70. Barnes is 10th with 37, one behind Hansel Robles (and his 8 blown saves).

 

So, from 2019-2021, Barnes has 37 saves with 18 blown saves... For those pining for Rasiel Iglesias in '22: 34 saves with only 5 blown saves the last three years.

 

A little misleading. And by “a little” I mean “very”.

 

In the last 3 seasons, Rasiel Iglesias has 13 blown saves per Fangraphs. He also has 76 saves. Were you looking at AL only? Iglesias’ 34 saves / 5 blown saves represent his totals from 2021 alone.

 

Also worth noting, unlike everyone else in this post, Barnes was not a full time closer for the last 3 seasons. You can only get a save if you pitch the last inning; you can get a blown save in any inning after the 5th. Barnes has 30 holds in that stretch and Iglesias has 5.

 

So really, Barnes has 67 saves plus holds to 18 blown saves. Iglesias has 81 saves plus holds to 13 blown saves. That certainly narrows the gap between the two..

Edited October 25, 2021 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A little misleading. And by “a little” I mean “very”.

 

In the last 3 seasons, Rasiel Iglesias has 13 blown saves per Fangraphs. He also has 76 saves. Were you looking at AL only? Iglesias’ 34 saves / 5 blown saves represent his totals from 2021 alone.

 

Also worth noting, unlike everyone else in this post, Barnes was not a full time closer for the last 3 seasons. You can only get a save if you pitch the last inning; you can get a blown save in any inning after the 5th. Barnes has 30 holds in that stretch and Iglesias has 5.

 

So really, Barnes has 67 saves plus holds to 18 blown saves. Iglesias has 81 saves plus holds to 13 blown saves. That certainly narrows the gap between the two..

 

The numbers posted were straight from bb-ref's Stathead for saves and blown saves AL 2019-21. Barnes was certainly the Red Sox closer the past two seasons, and briefly in 2019, when he began as Cora's go-to in any high leverage relief inning before inconsistencies plagued him after only two months.

 

I could care less about Rasiel, and just added his stats for perspective since his name has been coming up here. But I'd take his 76 saves vs. 13 blown over a guy who blows the lead in 50% of his outings (whenever he enters the game).

 

I get the point about the terminology, but wasn't personally trying to mislead. The stat sites label them "saves" and "blown saves", but there are no "let-go's" to counter "holds".

Edited October 25, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
semantics

[moonslav59]

The numbers posted were straight from bb-ref's Stathead for saves and blown saves AL 2019-21. Barnes was certainly the Red Sox closer the past two seasons, and briefly in 2019, when he began as Cora's go-to in any high leverage relief inning before inconsistencies plagued him after only two months.

 

I could care less about Rasiel, and just added his stats for perspective since his name has been coming up here. But I'd take his 76 saves vs. 13 blown over a guy who blows the lead in 50% of his outings (whenever he enters the game).

 

I get the point about the terminology, but wasn't personally trying to mislead. The stat sites label them "saves" and "blown saves", but there are no "let-go's" to counter "holds".

 

Barnes does not blow the lead in half his games.

[Bellhorn04]

I get the point about the terminology, but wasn't personally trying to mislead. The stat sites label them "saves" and "blown saves", but there are no "let-go's" to counter "holds".

 

As we've said here numerous times, it's a big problem with those stats.

 

"Let-go's" isn't bad, though.

[notin]

The numbers posted were straight from bb-ref's Stathead for saves and blown saves AL 2019-21. Barnes was certainly the Red Sox closer the past two seasons, and briefly in 2019, when he began as Cora's go-to in any high leverage relief inning before inconsistencies plagued him after only two months.

 

I could care less about Rasiel, and just added his stats for perspective since his name has been coming up here. But I'd take his 76 saves vs. 13 blown over a guy who blows the lead in 50% of his outings (whenever he enters the game).

 

I get the point about the terminology, but wasn't personally trying to mislead. The stat sites label them "saves" and "blown saves", but there are no "let-go's" to counter "holds".

 

You're still tying to mislead. Even if you use your old numbers, 37 saves and 18 blown saves is closer to 30%. But a lot of his blown saves were really "blown holds," but no stat sites differentiate between the two. As Barnes spent most of 2018 pitching in situations where he was not going to get a save but was able to get a blown save, the overall statement is misleading.

 

Iglesias did do better than Barnes, blowing 14% of all save/hold opportunities. But Barnes actually rate was 24% of all save/hold chances blown. Less than the 32% if you only look at saves, and certainly less than the 50% which is just flat out wrong no matter how you look at it.

 

Of course, there are other aspects that are incorrect, too. 1) How many blown saves did the Sox still win? Blown saves are not all losses, after all. And how many were blown saves where Barnes did nothing wrong? Coming in with the tying run on third and no one out and giving up a sac fly is a blown save, but is it really the fault of the pitcher getting the blown save?

[moonslav59]

This year, Barnes had 30 saves and 6 BSs. 24/30. He had no "holds." (33% IRS)

2020: 9 Saves and 4 BS (4 holds) 13 SV+Hold/17. 0% IRS.

2019: 4 Saves and 8 BS (26 holds) 30 Sv + Holds/38. 25% IRS.

2018: 0 Sv and 3 BS. (25 Holds) 25 Sv + Holds/28. 7% IRS

2017: 1 Sv and 2 BS (21 Holds) 22 SV+Holds/24. 17% IRS

 

Last 5 years:

44 saves

23 BS

76 Holds

 

120 Sv + Holds out of 143.

 

That's 84% of the time holding or saving the games he played in since 2017 and entered with a lead or tie.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not trying to mislead. Although admittedly, when I look at data, I am often misled. Statistically, in the past three years, Matt Barnes has twice as many saves as blown saves. There are many AL relief pitchers during that span that have better ratios for those two categories that include the word "save" in their labels.

 

Number guys can defend him all day with quantitative data. But is it that unlikely that qualitative data was also involved when it was determined by management and the front office that Barnes can't be trusted to close games down the stretch this year?

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to mislead. Although admittedly, when I look at data, I am often misled. Statistically, in the past three years, Matt Barnes has twice as many saves as blown saves. There are many AL relief pitchers during that span that have better ratios for those two categories that include the word "save" in their labels.

 

Number guys can defend him all day with quantitative data. But is it that unlikely that qualitative data was also involved when it was determined by management and the front office that Barnes can't be trusted to close games down the stretch this year?

 

He imploded, for some reason.

 

He was Koji-esque for a 2-3 months before imploding.

 

I have no idea what to expect in 2022.

[mvp 78]

I'm not in favor of signing an old, expensive pitcher. Scherzer has a tired, dead arm and can't start with his club facing elimination. He won't be any younger a year from now.

 

I agree on Scherzer. It's going to be a lot of money and his much more prone to breaking down and ineffectiveness as he ages. One day, his stuff will just fall off the cliff.

[notin]

I'm not trying to mislead. Although admittedly, when I look at data, I am often misled. Statistically, in the past three years, Matt Barnes has twice as many saves as blown saves. There are many AL relief pitchers during that span that have better ratios for those two categories that include the word "save" in their labels.

 

Number guys can defend him all day with quantitative data. But is it that unlikely that qualitative data was also involved when it was determined by management and the front office that Barnes can't be trusted to close games down the stretch this year?

 

They may or may not use Barnes in that role. but his pre-finger slice 2021 was actually quite stellar.

 

It's really going to come down to how Houck and Whitlock are used. If both stay in the pen (my choice), then one probably handles the closing/high leverage and the other, along with Taylor, Barnes, Brasier, Sawamura, and maybe Valdez and/or Darwinzon Hernandez can give the Sox what looks like it could be a pretty formidable bullpen. But if one or both move to the rotation, then it puts question marks potentially all over the staff, including in the closing/high leverage role, where Barnes certainly remains a candidate.

 

(Of course, not all question marks are answered negatively.)

[mvp 78]

It's going to be another interesting one. But once again we better be prepared to be patient. Bloom is not exactly a rapid-fire wheeler-dealer.

 

Especially considering the situation with the CBA. The only thing we'll know in the near future is about opt outs and QO's.

[notin]

I agree on Scherzer. It's going to be a lot of money and his much more prone to breaking down and ineffectiveness as he ages. One day, his stuff will just fall off the cliff.

 

Exactly. It happens to nearly every pitcher, and very frequently before they reach age 38. It's a major part of why I hate long term deals for starters in free agency, especially those on the wrong side of 30...

[mvp 78]

What I want and what Bloom will do are two different things.....I trust Bloom. I really don't know much.

 

You start with what you have and make improvements.

 

C Vaz (no reason to think we won't pick up his option)

 

We'll know shortly after the World Series, what JD will do. Not too much concern here. If he opts out, we have $22M to play with. Next DH won't be that expensive.

 

SP Sale

SP Eovaldi

SP Pivetta

SP ????

SP ????

 

Again we'll know shortly the fate of E Rod.

 

Darwinzon

Sawamura

 

Barnes falling off the ridge.

 

I think $7M is a high price tag for a catcher with not even 1 fWAR this season.

 

I think JD is 60/40 to opt out.

 

Sox need to decide which of Houck and Whitlock should be moved into the rotation. I don't think they will put both of them there, but I guess it's within reason.

 

I would give the QO to ERod.

 

I think there's a chance DHern and Sawamura are dealt.

 

Barnes will be better next year.

[notin]

I think $7M is a high price tag for a catcher with not even 1 fWAR this season.

 

I think JD is 60/40 to opt out.

 

Sox need to decide which of Houck and Whitlock should be moved into the rotation. I don't think they will put both of them there, but I guess it's within reason.

 

I would give the QO to ERod.

 

I think there's a chance DHern and Sawamura are dealt.

 

Barnes will be better next year.

 

Giving ERod QO strikes me as a no-brainer, and I am far from his biggest supporter.

 

I do think one of Whitlock or Houck moves to the rotation, where we have no idea what to expect. Sox have 3 starters lined up for next season already under contract. If ERod makes 4, then maybe they will think twice about moving Houck/Whitlock there...

[moonslav59]

Especially considering the situation with the CBA. The only thing we'll know in the near future is about opt outs and QO's.

 

It's probably too late to change the QO thing for 2022, right?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He imploded, for some reason.

 

He was Koji-esque for a 2-3 months before imploding.

 

I have no idea what to expect in 2022.

 

All I'm saying is the Barnes mystery is underrated when reflecting on '21 (which we're already doing) and certainly going forward. At the end, Cora was using the same phrases he said about Sale, "trying to get him right" -- but Barnes wasn't coming off major surgery. We all want better relievers for '22. The bullpen was the top reason the Wild Sox of '21 didn't go even further on their trail of beers and jeers.

[moonslav59]

I think $7M is a high price tag for a catcher with not even 1 fWAR this season.

 

I think JD is 60/40 to opt out.

 

Sox need to decide which of Houck and Whitlock should be moved into the rotation. I don't think they will put both of them there, but I guess it's within reason.

 

I would give the QO to ERod.

 

I think there's a chance DHern and Sawamura are dealt.

 

Barnes will be better next year.

 

I agree with all of this.

 

(See, I'm not always a contrarian.)

[notin]

Fun fact:

 

AL First Base OPS Leaders from 6-10-21 to the end of the season

 

1. Vlad Guerrero - .955

2. Bobby Dalbec - .916

3. Matt Olson - .897

 

 

 

So why should the Sox replace this guy?

[moonslav59]

Fun fact:

 

AL First Base OPS Leaders from 6-10-21 to the end of the season

 

1. Vlad Guerrero - .955

2. Bobby Dalbec - .916

3. Matt Olson - .897

 

So why should the Sox replace this guy?

 

He did great in 2020, also. Basically, he sucked for April and May and a few stretches here and there.

 

His defense also improved, but it started out so badly, he's still only near acceptable.

 

To me, he should be viewed as our FT 1Bman for 2022, with a platoon partner available, if needed.

[notin]

He did great in 2020, also. Basically, he sucked for April and May and a few stretches here and there.

 

His defense also improved, but it started out so badly, he's still only near acceptable.

 

To me, he should be viewed as our FT 1Bman for 2022, with a platoon partner available, if needed.

 

I think he should get the job to start and then work in Casas when and as needed...

[mvp 78]

Ottavino's numbers were deceivingly good. He can be replaced at $8M.

 

I'm not sure what "deceivingly good" is supposed to convey here. Numbers that seemingly look good, but are kinda not? Numbers that are good, but you have to dig into them?

 

He had a 0.5 fWAR, 4.70 xFIP, 4.21 ERA. His GB% was below his career norms. His LOB% was below career norms. BABIP was slightly above career norms. K rate was average, but bb rate was higher.

 

When you did into his statcast numbers:

 

93rd percentile average exit velocity

95th percentile hard hit %

90th percentile xSLG

90th percentile Barrel %

 

7th percentile bb %

6th percentile chase rate

 

Whiff rate on his slider dropped 10 points. Put Away % on his slider dropped 12 points.

 

He got much more vertical movement on his slider, but it seemed to have caused players to recognize it better and lay off of it. At times, that pitch stayed well out of the zone. His slider used to be his out pitch, but it is much less effective now with a run value of -1. In 18 and 19, it had a run value of -14 and -11.

 

What does it all mean? IMO, Ottavino was ok. It was a fine season for him, but I think he's overpaid at his current salary. Batters are laying off his slider and no longer chasing it which is driving up his bb rate. If that slider is less effective, he's no longer a high leverage reliever.

[mvp 78]

We may get to the point we don't even talk about starting rotations and bullpens any more, just pitching staffs.

 

And if that is the case, will less money be spent on ace FA's?

[mvp 78]

Possible Help from the Farm per Sox Prospects

Position Players

2022

1B Casas

OF Duran

SS Downs

C Wong

2023

C Hernandez

2024

SS Mayer

2B Yorke

3B Blaze

OF Jimenez

 

Pitchers

2022

Seabold

Winchowski

2023

Bello

Groome

Matta

Murphy

Walter

Ward

2024

Song

 

Wong and Downs both finished the season off strong. Ronaldo Hernandez is terrible behind the plate, but his bat may be able to carry him.

 

Ward will not be ready by 2023 considering the amount of time he'll lose to TJS. Mata is probably a relief profile going forward, unless he just becomes a 3 inning opener.

 

Nobody has a clue about what Song will be. He may never get out of the FCL. He may get fast tracked to MLB. Huge variance there.

Edited October 25, 2021 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

I think he should get the job to start and then work in Casas when and as needed...

 

That has to be the plan- with the Schwarber re-sign the only real possible option.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure what "deceivingly good" is supposed to convey here. Numbers that seemingly look good, but are kinda not? Numbers that are good, but you have to dig into them?

 

He had a 0.5 fWAR, 4.70 xFIP, 4.21 ERA. His GB% was below his career norms. His LOB% was below career norms. BABIP was slightly above career norms. K rate was average, but bb rate was higher.

 

When you did into his statcast numbers:

 

93rd percentile average exit velocity

95th percentile hard hit %

90th percentile xSLG

90th percentile Barrel %

 

7th percentile bb %

6th percentile chase rate

 

Whiff rate on his slider dropped 10 points. Put Away % on his slider dropped 12 points.

 

He got much more vertical movement on his slider, but it seemed to have caused players to recognize it better and lay off of it. At times, that pitch stayed well out of the zone. His slider used to be his out pitch, but it is much less effective now with a run value of -1. In 18 and 19, it had a run value of -14 and -11.

 

What does it all mean? IMO, Ottavino was ok. It was a fine season for him, but I think he's overpaid at his current salary. Batters are laying off his slider and no longer chasing it which is driving up his bb rate. If that slider is less effective, he's no longer a high leverage reliever.

 

He really was two different pitchers, this year.

 

Despite walking too many batters, all year, his OPS against was...

 

.574 in his first 159 PAs against (.301 BAbip) 2.68 ERA/1.297 WHIP

 

.948 in his last 117 PAs against (.349 BAbip) 6.48 ERA/1.680 WHIP

 

I guess what I meant by deceivingly good was that he was pretty good for most of the season.

 

His OPS against was under .637 for 4 months.

 

.856 in July (.440 BAbip)

1.152 in September (.333 BAbip)

[mvp 78]

Top 10 - the offseason playlist (pre Halloween)

 

1.) we issue Rodriguez a q.o. And he does not take it.

2.) Martinez does not opt out.

3.) we pick up the Vazquez option.

4.) we sign chris Taylor in free agency.

5.) we trade Duran and two minor league pitchers to Oakland for manea.

6.) arizona does not pick up the option on Merrill Kelly and we sign him.

7.) we do not pick up the options on Perez and Richards.

8.) we sign two relievers this offseason, just don’t know who yet.

9.) we acquire an unknown closer.

10.) hang’em Chaim publicly apologizes fir bungling the Benintendi trade!

 

Book your 2022 World Series reservations now.

 

Chris Taylor is a perfectly average player who can't hit a breaking balls and offspeed stuff. His whiff and k rates are bottom 10%. His hard hit % is well below average and he relies on his speed which will continue to diminish as he gets older. Is he good enough to push Verdugo or Renfroe to the bench? Maybe? I wouldn't start him against RHP and put Verdugo on the bench though.