The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[notin]

Why trade Bogey and downgrade to Baez?

 

Also, 5 years is kinda long when we may be talking about Mayer in 3.

 

We may also stop talking about Mayer by then.

 

I know Bloom has to consider the future when making deals, but he probably shouldn't build the 2022 roster around players who graduated high school in 2021...

[notin]

Baez long term in Boston is asking for trouble. In his eight-year career, the guy has struck out 29.3% of the time. That's more than Schwarber, JD, Renfroe, Devers -- every regular in last October's starting lineup. In addition, playing in a new league facing and learning new pitchers can be a struggle initially (ask JBJ, a career 25.9% whiffer).

 

Imagine Baez having issues adjusting, fanning continually in big spots, and hearing boos -- will he react the way he did for the Mets? Red Sox fans won't be so forgiving, especially if he's owed nine figures.

 

Unlike Schwarber, JD, etc. Baez can actually flash some serious leather. He is a very good player. And despite his overt affections displayed to the Mets' fans, he is probably going to re-sign there. Apparently, he and Lindor are BFF's going back to when both were drafted in the same first round.

 

Of course, the dust has recently settled in the Mets' front office, and we will have to see how Billy Eppler feels about Baez to make this a reality...

[moonslav59]

Baez long term in Boston is asking for trouble. In his eight-year career, the guy has struck out 29.3% of the time. That's more than Schwarber, JD, Renfroe, Devers -- every regular in last October's starting lineup. In addition, playing in a new league facing and learning new pitchers can be a struggle initially (ask JBJ, a career 25.9% whiffer).

 

Imagine Baez having issues adjusting, fanning continually in big spots, and hearing boos -- will he react the way he did for the Mets? Red Sox fans won't be so forgiving, especially if he's owed nine figures.

 

I've never cared much about a lot of K's, as long as the guy gets hits or walks enough.

 

I hate DPs more.

 

I hate mediocre or poor D at SS.

[moonslav59]

Unlike Schwarber, JD, etc. Baez can actually flash some serious leather. He is a very good player. And despite his overt affections displayed to the Mets' fans, he is probably going to re-sign there. Apparently, he and Lindor are BFF's going back to when both were drafted in the same first round.

 

Of course, the dust has recently settled in the Mets' front office, and we will have to see how Billy Eppler feels about Baez to make this a reality...

 

Baez would be a great Sox addition, but I seriously doubt we are looking at SSs.

[notin]

Baez would be a great Sox addition, but I seriously doubt we are looking at SSs.

 

While I don't think a pre-emptive move for the SS position if Bogaerts leaves is a bad thing, it is also possibly very unnecessary.

 

When Bogaerts hits the market next off-season, if the Sox cannot bring him back, the other shortstops that might be available include Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Tim Anderson is another, but he has a $12.5mill team option that is very likely to be exercised...

[sk7326]

Baez would be a great Sox addition, but I seriously doubt we are looking at SSs.

 

I look at his being an outstanding 2B ... with the infield, the defensive metrics are bad enough that the team should (and probably are) look hard at how defensive alignment and positioning is (not) working.

[sk7326]

Baez long term in Boston is asking for trouble. In his eight-year career, the guy has struck out 29.3% of the time. That's more than Schwarber, JD, Renfroe, Devers -- every regular in last October's starting lineup. In addition, playing in a new league facing and learning new pitchers can be a struggle initially (ask JBJ, a career 25.9% whiffer).

 

Imagine Baez having issues adjusting, fanning continually in big spots, and hearing boos -- will he react the way he did for the Mets? Red Sox fans won't be so forgiving, especially if he's owed nine figures.

 

The walks are more of a bother than the strikeouts. But if he turned his .320 OBP to a .340 one, that is an MVP-level player.

[moonslav59]

While I don't think a pre-emptive move for the SS position if Bogaerts leaves is a bad thing, it is also possibly very unnecessary.

 

When Bogaerts hits the market next off-season, if the Sox cannot bring him back, the other shortstops that might be available include Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Tim Anderson is another, but he has a $12.5mill team option that is very likely to be exercised...

 

I do think adding a SS, this winter, is highly unlikely.

[mvp 78]

We may also stop talking about Mayer by then.

 

I know Bloom has to consider the future when making deals, but he probably shouldn't build the 2022 roster around players who graduated high school in 2021...

 

I think he shouldn't build the 2022 roster to spite the 2024 roster.

[notin]

A simple plan

 

1. Trade for CL Lou Trivino with Oakland. Trivino has a surplus value on BTV of $1.1mill, which gives plenty of options. 3B/2B Hudson Potts ($2.4mill) looks like an overpay, but I'd be surprised if Oakland went for it. Maybe LHP Chris Murphy ($2.1mill) would get the deal done. Trivino make $923K last off-season, so let's put his first year arb salary around $2mill.

2. Sign Cesar Hernandez for 2B. Hernandez has a Gold Glove on his resume, and has shown the ability to bat just about anywhere, and is consistenly in the 2-3 fWAR range. Last year, he signed for 1 yr / $5mill. 2 yrs / $16mill might be enough. Not sure how Hernandez missed to the top 50 free agent list on MLBTR.

3. Sign a SP. I'll go with Jon Gray, coming off a rough 2020-21 in Colorado where he made $6mill. I am horrible at guessing free agenmt deals. so I can go with the MLBTR prediction of 4 years / $56mill.

4. Trade for a SP using Jarren Duran (BTV surprlus value - $23.2 mill). Some intriguing matches include Northeastern alum Aaron Civale ($21.6 mill) and Sox legacy Cal Quantrill ($21.2 mill). Not sure about how Cleveland feels about moving a SP, but it's not unheard of for them and their OF is full of questions. Neither Civale nor Quantrill is arbitration-eligible until next season.

5. Non-tender Plawecki and Austin Davis

 

Obviously, the biggest obstacle is the Cleveland trade, which BTV accepts but Cleveland probably doesn't. Dealing Duran to Oakland for someone like Sean Manaea is much more likely. Manaea is inhis last year of arbitration elgibility and will command a lot more than Civale or Quantrill, but he can easily be fit in here.

 

C: Vazquez

1B: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2B: C Hernandez

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo

CF: E Hernandez

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Gray, Manaea/Civale/Quantrill, Pivetta

BP: Trivino, Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez

 

BN: C Wong, Arroyo, Locastro, and a placeholder for Casas, probably Arauz.

 

Added cost from trades/free agents: ~$25mill (plus Manaea). Should come in under whatever the budget is...

[notin]

I think he shouldn't build the 2022 roster to spite the 2024 roster.

 

I am not sure sure signing the versatile Baez is thumbing one's nose at Mayer and the 2024 roster, which Mayer might not even be part of considering he will still only be 21 years old at the time...

[Bellhorn04]

He's 34. Maybe every other day or slightly more?

 

Over 2019-2021 Pina had 432 PA's. Vazquez had 498 in 2021 alone.

 

I get why you guys like Pina, but he'd have to be a BUC.

[Old Red]

The blueprint might be we spend $40M, like last year, but we literally cannot sign 10 guys, like last winter, so something is going to be different.

 

If we spend $40M on 3 guys, we'll likely go large on one. If we spend $40M on 4-5 guys, maybe it will be more moderate deals, but I seriously doubt the most we spend on one player is $14M/2 like Kike or $10M/1 like Richards.

 

We might, but I doubt it.

 

I keep hearing the 40M mark as the amount the Red Sox have to spend this off season, but that is nothing more than speculation of some on here. Who knows what the amount will be. It could be more, and it could be less.

[moonslav59]

Over 2019-2021 Pina had 432 PA's. Vazquez had 498 in 2021 alone.

 

I get why you guys like Pina, but he'd have to be a BUC.

 

He was a back-up.

 

His PAs were not restricted by his age. Besides, not laying a lot means he has more innings left in him as a catcher.

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing the 40M mark as the amount the Red Sox have to spend this off season, but that is nothing more than speculation of some on here. Who knows what the amount will be. It could be more, and it could be less.

 

I'm going off your statement that Kennedy said the "same blueprint" as last winter.

 

Last winter, we spent $40M.

[Old Red]

I'm going off your statement that Kennedy said the "same blueprint" as last winter.

 

Last winter, we spent $40M.

 

I took that as the kind of shopping they would be doing, and not how much money they would be spending. No dollar figure was mentioned.

[mvp 78]

A simple plan

 

1. Trade for CL Lou Trivino with Oakland. Trivino has a surplus value on BTV of $1.1mill, which gives plenty of options. 3B/2B Hudson Potts ($2.4mill) looks like an overpay, but I'd be surprised if Oakland went for it. Maybe LHP Chris Murphy ($2.1mill) would get the deal done. Trivino make $923K last off-season, so let's put his first year arb salary around $2mill.

2. Sign Cesar Hernandez for 2B. Hernandez has a Gold Glove on his resume, and has shown the ability to bat just about anywhere, and is consistenly in the 2-3 fWAR range. Last year, he signed for 1 yr / $5mill. 2 yrs / $16mill might be enough. Not sure how Hernandez missed to the top 50 free agent list on MLBTR.

3. Sign a SP. I'll go with Jon Gray, coming off a rough 2020-21 in Colorado where he made $6mill. I am horrible at guessing free agenmt deals. so I can go with the MLBTR prediction of 4 years / $56mill.

4. Trade for a SP using Jarren Duran (BTV surprlus value - $23.2 mill). Some intriguing matches include Northeastern alum Aaron Civale ($21.6 mill) and Sox legacy Cal Quantrill ($21.2 mill). Not sure about how Cleveland feels about moving a SP, but it's not unheard of for them and their OF is full of questions. Neither Civale nor Quantrill is arbitration-eligible until next season.

5. Non-tender Plawecki and Austin Davis

 

Obviously, the biggest obstacle is the Cleveland trade, which BTV accepts but Cleveland probably doesn't. Dealing Duran to Oakland for someone like Sean Manaea is much more likely. Manaea is inhis last year of arbitration elgibility and will command a lot more than Civale or Quantrill, but he can easily be fit in here.

 

C: Vazquez

1B: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2B: C Hernandez

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Verdugo

CF: E Hernandez

RF: Renfroe

DH: Martinez

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Gray, Manaea/Civale/Quantrill, Pivetta

BP: Trivino, Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez

 

BN: C Wong, Arroyo, Locastro, and a placeholder for Casas, probably Arauz.

 

Added cost from trades/free agents: ~$25mill (plus Manaea). Should come in under whatever the budget is...

 

My only gripe is that if I'm trading Duran, it needs to be for a guy with at least 2 years of control.

[mvp 78]

I'm going off your statement that Kennedy said the "same blueprint" as last winter.

 

Last winter, we spent $40M.

 

I think the blueprint would be more towards total budget rather than offseason spend.

[Bellhorn04]

He was a back-up.

 

His PAs were not restricted by his age. Besides, not laying a lot means he has more innings left in him as a catcher.

 

Well, that's one way to look at it, I guess.

[Old Red]

I think the blueprint would be more towards total budget rather than offseason spend.

 

I don’t think JH is as gung-ho as he was 10 years ago when it comes to spending money.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think JH is as gung-ho as he was 10 years ago when it comes to spending money.

 

The biggest spending years were 2018 and 2019.

[moonslav59]

I think the blueprint would be more towards total budget rather than offseason spend.

 

Well, that's where we are not sure about what Kennedy meant.

 

He may very well have been hinting at staying under the line again, and that would mean about $28M to spend, not the $40M we spent. last winter...

 

$10M Richards

$8M Ottavino

$7M Kike (x 2)

$6M Perez

$3M Renfroe

$3M Marwin

$2M Andriese

$1M Sawamura (x 2)

 

(BTW, we could trade Renfroe and Vaz and add $14M to the $28M and get close to last winter's spending budget. We can find the next Renfroe for $3M. Or, we can DFA Plawecki and trade Renfroe and get to about a $38M spending budget.)

[moonslav59]

The biggest spending years were 2018 and 2019.

 

What winters were the biggest spending winters?

 

1) in terms of most overall money spent?

 

2) in terms of most yearly average salary signed?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Renfroe gets dealt and the sox use the prospect haul to acquire a starter. Without Renfroe, you've got your CF and RF set. It isn't difficult to find a JAG LFer who can swing the stick a bit.

[moonslav59]

I think Renfroe gets dealt and the sox use the prospect haul to acquire a starter. Without Renfroe, you've got your CF and RF set. It isn't difficult to find a JAG LFer who can swing the stick a bit.

 

We may trade Renfroe and sign Schwarber.

 

Maybe they try to move Dalbec to LF, when Casas is ready.

[notin]

My only gripe is that if I'm trading Duran, it needs to be for a guy with at least 2 years of control.

 

I would prefer that, but I am not really sure if he is enough of a prospect to get a decent pitcher with multiple years of control...

[notin]

I think Renfroe gets dealt and the sox use the prospect haul to acquire a starter. Without Renfroe, you've got your CF and RF set. It isn't difficult to find a JAG LFer who can swing the stick a bit.

 

i'm not so sure Renfroe is going to get anything close to a "prospect haul"...

[jacksonianmarch]

i'm not so sure Renfroe is going to get anything close to a "prospect haul"...

 

Maybe it nets you a couple prospects you could add to a top tier prospect and get yourself a starter. I think Bloom knows he caught lightning in a bottle with Renfroe and will look to sell high

[Old Red]

The biggest spending years were 2018 and 2019.

 

The Sox have been bailed out twice by the Dodgers taking Agon, and Crawford off their hands, and taking Price, and I don’t know if they would get lucky a third time, so unless it’s for Raffy i don’t see them going real big anytime soon.

[jad]

The Sox have been bailed out twice by the Dodgers taking Agon, and Crawford off their hands, and taking Price, and I don’t know if they would get lucky a third time, so unless it’s for Raffy i don’t see them going real big anytime soon.

 

Don't put Agon in the same category as Crawford or Price. He hit EXACTLY as he was expected to with the RS (can't recall--.290-.300?) and pretty much the way he did throughout his career.