The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

I don't know if this has been said here yet, but if the Sox commit to $25M AAV to Baez, don't they have to at least match that for Bogaerts -- if they plan to extend him? So five for $125M for Baez might turn into a minimum investment of $250M total to also keep and not disrespect Bogie... If not, 2022 could be awkward with hard feelings and a lame-duck X preparing to opt out.

 

An amicable agreement with Bogie about moving on is possible, but maybe not as much if they try to negotiate -- and fail -- on an extension this winter, at the same time they're inking Baez. And this doesn't even factor how much a longterm Devers will cost.

 

I'm thinking, if we sign Baez, we are telling Bogey, "You are playing 2B or 3B or bye bye."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Earl Weaver once said the opposite. "If a guy steals second, you have no guarantee he's going to score. But if he hits one over the fence, you know you have a run."

 

So who do you believe? Both are Hall of fame managers...

 

I believe them both. Weaver beat Anderson in their only head-to-head World Series, but Weaver teams also lost three other WS. Stolen bases mattered little in any of them. When Anderson's Reds finally won -- still the only NL club with back-to-back rings in over 50 years -- he had arguably the most relentless power/speed batting order in history.

 

But speed also factors on defense -- the main reason those teams were so dominant back then. Quickness can affect range as much as positioning by analytics (whose departments were housed in dugouts and the minds of veterans on the field in olden times).

[moonslav59]

I believe them both. Weaver beat Anderson in their only head-to-head World Series, but Weaver teams also lost three other WS. Stolen bases mattered little in any of them. When Anderson's Reds finally won -- still the only NL club with back-to-back rings in over 50 years -- he had arguably the most relentless power/speed batting order in history.

 

But speed also factors on defense -- the main reason those teams were so dominant back then. Quickness can affect range as much as positioning by analytics (whose departments were housed in dugouts and the minds of veterans on the field in olden times).

 

YES! Speed and quickness up the middle on defense was common with both these managers.

[notin]

I believe them both. Weaver beat Anderson in their only head-to-head World Series, but Weaver teams also lost three other WS. Stolen bases mattered little in any of them. When Anderson's Reds finally won -- still the only NL club with back-to-back rings in over 50 years -- he had arguably the most relentless power/speed batting order in history.

 

But speed also factors on defense -- the main reason those teams were so dominant back then. Quickness can affect range as much as positioning by analytics (whose departments were housed in dugouts and the minds of veterans on the field in olden times).

 

Never confuse speed with quickness.

 

Speed might help on defense, but there is no guarantee a fast player is a good defender, as speed has nothing to do with the ability to judge, catch or throw...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Never confuse speed with quickness.

 

I've never seen or heard anyone confuse speed with slowness.

[moonslav59]

Never confuse speed with quickness.

 

Speed might help on defense, but there is no guarantee a fast player is a good defender, as speed has nothing to do with the ability to judge, catch or throw...

 

It may help some defenders, particularly OF'ers, make up for bad breaks on the ball or poor route-taking to still make the play, but yes, speed, alone does not make a defender great.

 

The quickness vs speed aspect is important.

 

I think Devers is quick (as in reflexes), but not too fast.

Edited November 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

BTV accepts a trade proposal of Franchy Cordero for Matt Boyd.

 

Boyd is a potential non-tender candidate with Detroit with only one year left before free agency. I do realize I am on a very short list of people who still have faith in him as a pitcher. I think even Mrs. Boyd dropped off that list a couple of years back...

 

What is the reason for the non-tender? Just salary? Injury history?

[mvp 78]

Weaver's comments about baseball are the most sensible I've heard.

 

"If you know how to cheat, start now."

[mvp 78]

"The key step for an infielder is the first one, to the left or right, but before the ball is hit."

 

Seems like Weaver would be a proponent of shifting.

[mvp 78]

Never confuse speed with quickness.

 

Speed might help on defense, but there is no guarantee a fast player is a good defender, as speed has nothing to do with the ability to judge, catch or throw...

 

It's why Dalbec may peak at one of the fastest runners on the team, but will always be towards the bottom in home to 1b.

[moonslav59]

What is the reason for the non-tender? Just salary? Injury history?

 

With Boyd, my guess is they think he's worth less than the arb estimate of about $7M and think they can do better from withinthe system of by signing a better pitcher for $7M or an equal pitcher for less than $7M.

 

Renfroe and Boyd are both estimated at $7M, but Renfroe has another arb year.

 

Would anyone trade Renfroe for Boyd?

 

[moonslav59]

It's why Dalbec may peak at one of the fastest runners on the team, but will always be towards the bottom in home to 1b.

 

Is Baez faster than Duran and Locastro?

[mvp 78]

With Boyd, my guess is they think he's worth less than the arb estimate of about $7M and think they can do better from withinthe system of by signing a better pitcher for $7M or an equal pitcher for less than $7M.

 

Renfroe and Boyd are both estimated at $7M, but Renfroe has another arb year.

 

Would anyone trade Renfroe for Boyd?

 

 

I would assume they could pay him the arb and deal him. Just dumping him on the streets seems weird.

[moonslav59]

I would assume they could pay him the arb and deal him. Just dumping him on the streets seems weird.

 

Maybe no GM thinks Boyd is worth $7M+.

 

He seems like a good gamble at that cost.

[notin]

What is the reason for the non-tender? Just salary? Injury history?

 

Not sure. I just saw his name on a potential non-tender list. Probably either salary or they need the 40 man roster spot. Or both.

 

I would call him a bubble candidate...

[notin]

I'm thinking, if we sign Baez, we are telling Bogey, "You are playing 2B or 3B or bye bye."

 

Or Baez plays 2B for one year while the whole Bogaerts situation works itself out.

[notin]

It may help some defenders, particularly OF'ers, make up for bad breaks on the ball or poor route-taking to still make the play, but yes, speed, alone does not make a defender great.

 

The quickness vs speed aspect is important.

 

I think Devers is quick (as in reflexes), but not too fast.

 

 

Statements like that always make me think of Dwayne Hosey. Lightning fast runner. Horrible outfielder. Dude couldn't catch a cold if he was naked in Norway...

[moonslav59]

Or Baez plays 2B for one year while the whole Bogaerts situation works itself out.

 

That's probably what they would do, since Baez has a lot of experience at 2B, but he's so much better at SS D, I would not "waste" him at 2B.

 

If we sign Baez, trading Bogey makes the most sense, to me. Of course, it depends what we get, but I happen to think we could get a nice return.

[Old Red]

That's probably what they would do, since Baez has a lot of experience at 2B, but he's so much better at SS D, I would not "waste" him at 2B.

 

If we sign Baez, trading Bogey makes the most sense, to me. Of course, it depends what we get, but I happen to think we could get a nice return.

 

I don’t think Bogey will be following the same road as Betts, and get traded, and I also don’t think Baez will get signed.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Bogey will be following the same road as Betts, and get traded, and I also don’t think Baez will get signed.

 

I think some other GM needs a SS more than we need a 2B/SS, but with so many on the market, one never knows.

 

I've also read we might be a surprise choice for Semien, but I highly doubt it.

 

We'll probably wait out on Bogey, hope Downs and Mayer impress, next season, and see what happens.

 

I really like Baez, and I think Cora does, too. Who knows?

[Old Red]

I think some other GM needs a SS more than we need a 2B/SS, but with so many on the market, one never knows.

 

I've also read we might be a surprise choice for Semien, but I highly doubt it.

 

We'll probably wait out on Bogey, hope Downs and Mayer impress, next season, and see what happens.

 

I really like Baez, and I think Cora does, too. Who knows?

 

If you sign any of these guys, and don’t trade Bogey then where is all the money coming from to add pitching?

[sk7326]

I'm thinking, if we sign Baez, we are telling Bogey, "You are playing 2B or 3B or bye bye."

 

Possibly. That said, the infield defense was poor throughout - and certainly the team needs to self study how much value the team's defensive positioning algorithms are adding (or not adding).

[mvp 78]

Is Baez faster than Duran and Locastro?

 

Locastro 30.7 (100th percentile)

Duran 29.3

Baez 28.6 (same as Franchy)

 

Iggy 28.3

Dalbec 28.2

Arroyo 27.9

[mvp 78]

Rule 5 deadline is two days away. Sox will be making some moves in the next 48 hours. Have been quiet so far.

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Brayan Bello and Jeter Downs are locks to be added. Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford are near-locks to be added, and I would be very surprised if they weren't. All four of those players have a realistic chance of helping the MLB team next year.

After those four, I think there are nine players who you could make a case for in either direction: Thaddeus Ward, Gilberto Jimenez, Ceddanne Rafaela, Victor Santos, Durbin Feltman, Zack Kelly, Frank German, Ryan Fitzgerald and Kole Cottam.

Right now I think at least two, and potentially up to four, of those players could be protected. Also, if the Red Sox look to make a trade before the deadline, I'd expect it to be from this group, since whoever doesn't get protected would have a decent chance to get selected.

 

I would go:

Bello

Downs

Winckowski

Crawford

Cottam

Feltman

Santos

 

There are currently 7 spots open. They could add those guys without dropping anyone. I think Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, Phillips Valdez and Austin Davis are DFA candidates.

[moonslav59]

If you sign any of these guys, and don’t trade Bogey then where is all the money coming from to add pitching?

 

Exactly, unless Henry gives Bloom a second wallet.

 

To me, getting Baez should mean we are trading Bogey. I suppose we could trade Vaz and Renfroe to add $14M for Matz, but we need more than that. (Then, we'd need a catcher and RF'er.)

[mvp 78]

Move Connor Wong in a trade? Non-tender Plawecki?

[moonslav59]

@IanCundall

Brayan Bello and Jeter Downs are locks to be added. Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford are near-locks to be added, and I would be very surprised if they weren't. All four of those players have a realistic chance of helping the MLB team next year.

After those four, I think there are nine players who you could make a case for in either direction: Thaddeus Ward, Gilberto Jimenez, Ceddanne Rafaela, Victor Santos, Durbin Feltman, Zack Kelly, Frank German, Ryan Fitzgerald and Kole Cottam.

Right now I think at least two, and potentially up to four, of those players could be protected. Also, if the Red Sox look to make a trade before the deadline, I'd expect it to be from this group, since whoever doesn't get protected would have a decent chance to get selected.

 

I would go:

Bello

Downs

Winckowski

Crawford

Cottam

Feltman

Santos

 

There are currently 7 spots open. They could add those guys without dropping anyone. I think Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, Phillips Valdez and Austin Davis are DFA candidates.

 

I'd say Cottam might be unprotected- Crawford a little less likely.

 

I don't know much about Santos, but he seems to be closer to a lock than the two I just mentioned.

 

Bello, Downs and Winckowski are locks. Feltman is likely, IMO.

[moonslav59]

Move Connor Wong in a trade? Non-tender Plawecki?

 

Maybe one, but probably not both.

[mvp 78]

Maybe one, but probably not both.

 

Yes. It would be weird to have 5 C's on the 40 man, so they either move Wong or Plawecki or don't add Cottam. I just have a funny feeling that they are going to keep Cottam.