The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[notin]

14-15 really sucked, but it came right after a WS win. I think the stretch from 10-12 was more frustrating as 2010 was a completely lost and middling season. The only part I remember about it was Ryan Kalish (a guy who only OPS'd 88+). The following year was touted as "the greatest Sox team of all time" but they just squandered all that away down the stretch with a brutal September that caused Theo and Tito to be rushed out the back door. 2012 was notable only for a ST where Pedro Ciriaco the standout player and Bobby V slowly steered the ship towards an oncoming iceberg that everyone saw from miles and miles away.

 

The 2011 team was highlighted by the offseason acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Neither lasted 2 seasons in Boston and were part of the horrific collapse that September for a team that was 83-52 on August 31st with a 1.5 game lead in the AL East and then concluded the year by going 7-20 in the final month. And even by 7-20 standards, it was still ugly.

 

Both Crawford and Gonzalez were dealt less than 1 year later along with Josh Beckett and (for some reason) Nick Punto for a package that included no major league talent better than James Loney. But somehow, it still worked because they won a title 4 months later...

[moonslav59]

The real problem with the cliff theory is twofold:

 

(1) ownership CHOSE to get under the cap by any means necessary, which amounted them to dumping Betts and fielding an uncompetitive pitching rotation for one year

 

This team has continually gone under the tax line, sometimes for 2-3 straight years, so it really should have been expected- chosen or not.

 

It was the posters who felt like henry should and WILL continue to spend over the tax line year after year who had the "problem with the cliff theory" not those who expected what has always happened before and did happen again.

[moonslav59]

The real problem with the cliff theory is twofold:

 

(2) in the real world, a cliff generally leads to an extended valley (and posters that were proponents of the idea stated that the Sox would have a few down years) but this Sox team had one bad season and then was in the ALCS the following year which is more of a "blip" than a "cliff" IMO

 

I don't remember any of the cliff dwellers taking about a 3+ year drought.

 

I also don't think any felt like it would be just one year, either, but I suppose one could call 2019 a semi-cliff year.

 

I thought it would take longer to build the farm back to middle of the pack than it has, and I felt we'd be re-setting, which we did. I wasn't sure about staying under for 2 years, and our playoff season in 2021 was a bit unexpected.

 

Hats off to Bloom for that.

 

I will agree that the "cliff" did not last as long as all of us thought, but we did have one, and we still have a ways to go to get to a sustainable winning formula and roster.

[moonslav59]

The 2011 team was highlighted by the offseason acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Neither lasted 2 seasons in Boston and were part of the horrific collapse that September for a team that was 83-52 on August 31st with a 1.5 game lead in the AL East and then concluded the year by going 7-20 in the final month. And even by 7-20 standards, it was still ugly.

 

Both Crawford and Gonzalez were dealt less than 1 year later along with Josh Beckett and (for some reason) Nick Punto for a package that included no major league talent better than James Loney. But somehow, it still worked because they won a title 4 months later...

 

The money freed up helped, and we got Miley for some of the Dodger return players.

[notin]

The real problem with the cliff theory is twofold:

 

(1) ownership CHOSE to get under the cap by any means necessary, which amounted them to dumping Betts and fielding an uncompetitive pitching rotation for one year

 

(2) in the real world, a cliff generally leads to an extended valley (and posters that were proponents of the idea stated that the Sox would have a few down years) but this Sox team had one bad season and then was in the ALCS the following year which is more of a "blip" than a "cliff" IMO

 

The "cliff theory" is based on how good a team can continually be if there are numerous aging players making millions upon millions while declining and no minimum wage players coming up to pick up the slack.

 

For all the annoyance the occasional reset brings, even during those years the Sox are still among the highest spenders in the league. Heck, the Sox have not splurged on a major free agent acquisition since JD Martinez, and yet they are STILL among the league's top spenders...

[moonslav59]

The "cliff theory" is based on how good a team can continually be if there are numerous aging players making millions upon millions while declining and no minimum wage players coming up to pick up the slack.

 

For all the annoyance the occasional reset brings, even during those years the Sox are still among the highest spenders in the league. Heck, the Sox have not splurged on a major free agent acquisition since JD Martinez, and yet they are STILL among the league's top spenders...

 

Those years we finished in last place in 5 of 6 seasons, we were still big spenders. The redeeming aspect of those years was that we built a farm and solid foundation of young MLB players for the window that included 3 straight first place finishes.

 

(Some of those teams looked better, on paper, than how they ended up doing.)

[notin]

The money freed up helped, and we got Miley for some of the Dodger return players.

 

It was 100% about the money.

 

Wade Miley was only in Boston for one year, and while he was actually pretty good, he was then turned and dealt for a reliever who gave the Sox 23 ineffective innings over the next 3 seasons.

 

I actually liked that trade at the time, but it turned out to be a disaster in hindsight. Miley gave the Sox 193 unappreciated innings with a 3.81 FIP and was credited with 2.7 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR. Although maybe his personality was a problem, since I once heard Joe Castiglione strongly hint that he was an insufferable *******...

[moonslav59]

It was 100% about the money.

 

Wade Miley was only in Boston for one year, and while he was actually pretty good, he was then turned and dealt for a reliever who gave the Sox 23 ineffective innings over the next 3 seasons.

 

I actually liked that trade at the time, but it turned out to be a disaster in hindsight. Miley gave the Sox 193 unappreciated innings with a 3.81 FIP and was credited with 2.7 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR. Although maybe his personality was a problem, since I once heard Joe Castiglione strongly hint that he was an insufferable *******...

 

I liked both Miley trades- getting and giving him up.

 

I loved the Dodger dump trade and called it a top 3 Sox trade of my lifetime.

[notin]

I liked both Miley trades- getting and giving him up.

 

I loved the Dodger dump trade and called it a top 3 Sox trade of my lifetime.

 

The funny thing about the deal moving Miley was Dombrowski came to Boston with a well-deserved reputation for ignoring the bullpen. But three of his first moves with his new team were to acquire relief pitchers (Smith, Kimbrel and Tyler Thornburg), twp of which were actually complete flops. I was starting to understand why he ignored bullpens so much...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The funny thing about the deal moving Miley was Dombrowski came to Boston with a well-deserved reputation for ignoring the bullpen. But three of his first moves with his new team were to acquire relief pitchers (Smith, Kimbrel and Tyler Thornburg), twp of which were actually complete flops. I was starting to understand why he ignored bullpens so much...

 

Dave is still trying to build a bullpen in Philly. He keeps seeking established relievers, instead of following the Rays' blueprint of stockpiling unproven but live arms. Dombro's problem might be that there are few almost automatics like Kimbrel, who finished over 150 games in his three Boston years.

[notin]

Those years we finished in last place in 5 of 6 seasons, we were still big spenders. The redeeming aspect of those years was that we built a farm and solid foundation of young MLB players for the window that included 3 straight first place finishes.

 

(Some of those teams looked better, on paper, than how they ended up doing.)

 

The Sox didn't finish in last place in 5 of 6 seasons. They finished in last place in 4 of 9 seasons...

[notin]

Dave is still trying to build a bullpen in Philly. He keeps seeking established relievers, instead of following the Rays' blueprint of stockpiling unproven but live arms. Dombro's problem might be that there are few almost automatics like Kimbrel, who finished over 150 games in his three Boston years.

 

To be fair to him in Philly, he inherited a few good relievers that have just struggled to stay healthy...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To be fair to him in Philly, he inherited a few good relievers that have just struggled to stay healthy...

 

Yup, and staying healthy is the main problem with any arms, but especially those with a lot of mileage on them. The amazing thing about the Rays is not only do they seemingly bring in a new guy we never heard of throwing 96 in every Red Sox game, but that Tampa always has at least 10 pitchers on the IL while doing it. Assuming just a few of those will suitably recover is what allows them to keep the wheel dealing.

[Bellhorn04]

(2) in the real world, a cliff generally leads to an extended valley (and posters that were proponents of the idea stated that the Sox would have a few down years) but this Sox team had one bad season and then was in the ALCS the following year which is more of a "blip" than a "cliff" IMO

 

I think you've got it. It was a "clip" or a "bliff".

[mvp 78]

The 2011 team was highlighted by the offseason acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Neither lasted 2 seasons in Boston and were part of the horrific collapse that September for a team that was 83-52 on August 31st with a 1.5 game lead in the AL East and then concluded the year by going 7-20 in the final month. And even by 7-20 standards, it was still ugly.

 

Both Crawford and Gonzalez were dealt less than 1 year later along with Josh Beckett and (for some reason) Nick Punto for a package that included no major league talent better than James Loney. But somehow, it still worked because they won a title 4 months later...

 

I'm going to need to see your math on this.

[mvp 78]

This team has continually gone under the tax line, sometimes for 2-3 straight years, so it really should have been expected- chosen or not.

 

It was the posters who felt like henry should and WILL continue to spend over the tax line year after year who had the "problem with the cliff theory" not those who expected what has always happened before and did happen again.

 

By "problem" I was saying the flaw in the argument, not the reason people were upset.

[mvp 78]

The "cliff theory" is based on how good a team can continually be if there are numerous aging players making millions upon millions while declining and no minimum wage players coming up to pick up the slack.

 

For all the annoyance the occasional reset brings, even during those years the Sox are still among the highest spenders in the league. Heck, the Sox have not splurged on a major free agent acquisition since JD Martinez, and yet they are STILL among the league's top spenders...

 

Again, the cliff was explained as something that would take YEARS to fix. They hit reset for one atrocious year and then were a playoff team the following year. I'm sure everyone would have agreed to that ahead of time.

[mvp 78]

I don't remember any of the cliff dwellers taking about a 3+ year drought.

 

I also don't think any felt like it would be just one year, either, but I suppose one could call 2019 a semi-cliff year.

 

I thought it would take longer to build the farm back to middle of the pack than it has, and I felt we'd be re-setting, which we did. I wasn't sure about staying under for 2 years, and our playoff season in 2021 was a bit unexpected.

 

Hats off to Bloom for that.

 

I will agree that the "cliff" did not last as long as all of us thought, but we did have one, and we still have a ways to go to get to a sustainable winning formula and roster.

 

As notin has stated, it's probably better described as a "reset" than a cliff.

[mvp 78]

It was 100% about the money.

 

Wade Miley was only in Boston for one year, and while he was actually pretty good, he was then turned and dealt for a reliever who gave the Sox 23 ineffective innings over the next 3 seasons.

 

I actually liked that trade at the time, but it turned out to be a disaster in hindsight. Miley gave the Sox 193 unappreciated innings with a 3.81 FIP and was credited with 2.7 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR. Although maybe his personality was a problem, since I once heard Joe Castiglione strongly hint that he was an insufferable *******...

 

I forgot about the Carson Smith trade. That was a bungle.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't remember any of the cliff dwellers taking about a 3+ year drought.

 

I also don't think any felt like it would be just one year, either, but I suppose one could call 2019 a semi-cliff year.

 

No. In 2019 they returned virtually the same team that won 108 and the WS. The only loss was Kimbrel.

 

If you call that a semi-cliff year I really have no idea what your definition of a cliff is.

[mvp 78]

The Sox didn't finish in last place in 5 of 6 seasons. They finished in last place in 4 of 9 seasons...

 

Also, there are HUGE differences between 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2020.

[moonslav59]

The Sox didn't finish in last place in 5 of 6 seasons. They finished in last place in 4 of 9 seasons...

 

Yes. I meant missed playoffs in 5 of 6 years- sandwiched around the 2013 WS season.

[mvp 78]

No. In 2019 they returned virtually the same team that won 108 and the WS. The only loss was Kimbrel.

 

If you call that a semi-cliff year I really have no idea what your definition of a cliff is.

 

It's an everchanging definition it seems. It's the thneed of Red Sox arguments.

[mvp 78]

I think you've got it. It was a "clip" or a "bliff".

 

I like the idea of it just being a "reset." It's like I'm playing a video game and haven't saved for an hour, but made some dumb mistake and it would be better to just hit reset and start over from where I was an hour ago at my last save rather than just continuing on.

[moonslav59]

As notin has stated, it's probably better described as a "reset" than a cliff.

 

Maybe the choice of words was wrong, and the surprising 2021 season kept the "cliff" from being 2 or 3 years long, depending on whether you count 2019 as the start of "the cliff."

 

I was wrong about it being more than a year long. (I don't count 2019.)

 

I was wrong about us needing more time to build the farm back up to decency, but we still have a ways to go to get our farm to the point where we can sustain substantial farm input every year.

 

Personally, I thought the word cliff was appropriate for what we expected, but it just didn't turn out to be as long as we thought. Had we missed the playoffs, like we almost did, would we be arguing about this not being a cliff?

[mvp 78]

Maybe the choice of words was wrong, and the surprising 2021 season kept the "cliff" from being 2 or 3 years long, depending on whether you count 2019 as the start of "the cliff."

 

I was wrong about it being more than a year long. (I don't count 2019.)

 

I was wrong about us needing more time to build the farm back up to decency, but we still have a ways to go to get our farm to the point where we can sustain substantial farm input every year.

 

Personally, I thought the word cliff was appropriate for what we expected, but it just didn't turn out to be as long as we thought. Had we missed the playoffs, like we almost did, would we be arguing about this not being a cliff?

 

So if you thought that word was appropriate for what would happen, but it didn't happen the way you expected: maybe there was no cliff? Maybe it was just a reset and the cliff never happened?

[moonslav59]

No. In 2019 they returned virtually the same team that won 108 and the WS. The only loss was Kimbrel.

 

If you call that a semi-cliff year I really have no idea what your definition of a cliff is.

 

The decline certainly started.

 

The "same team" on paper, ignores aging regressions, and the fact that several players had enormously good season- some a bit out of line with their career trends.

 

We can argue semantics all day. Maybe semi-cliff is too harsh.

 

BTW, we also lost Kelly and Pom.

 

If we are going by expectations and not results, then why not count 2021 as a "cliff," since almost everyone expected failure?

[moonslav59]

So if you thought that word was appropriate for what would happen, but it didn't happen the way you expected: maybe there was no cliff? Maybe it was just a reset and the cliff never happened?

 

I admitted, I got it wrong. I said it ended up not being a cliff. That does not mean we chose the wrong word, since3 it was what we meant at the time.

 

Rest or cliff? We wildly missed expectations in 2019, finished last in 2019 and were expected to suck in 2021.

 

The fact that we surprised in 2021 doesn't make the choice of words wrong. The fact that a sustained "cliff" did not happen means we were wrong about the length of the cliff- not necessarily the choice of words.

 

We thought it would be a cliff- so the word was appropriately chosen. We were just wrong- as were those who said we'd never fall like we did in 2020.

[harmony]

I forgot about the Carson Smith trade. That was a bungle.

The Seattle Mariners traded Wade Miley to Baltimore after 19 starts for lefthander Ariel Miranda, who posted an ERA of 4.64 in 43 appearances, including 40 starts, with the Mariners.

 

Miley and Miranda turned in impressive 2021 seasons as Miley posted an ERA+ of 141 and an ERA of 3.37 in 28 starts while Miranda won the equivalent of the Cy Young Award in the Korean Baseball Organization:

 

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211112005500315

[moonslav59]

The Seattle Mariners traded Wade Miley to Baltimore after 19 starts for lefthander Ariel Miranda, who posted an ERA of 4.64 in 43 appearances, including 40 starts, with the Mariners.

 

Miley and Miranda turned in impressive 2021 seasons as Miley posted an ERA+ of 141 and an ERA of 3.37 in 28 starts while Miranda won the equivalent of the Cy Young Award in the Korean Baseball Organization:

 

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211112005500315

 

It seems we often miss out on player's better years:

 

Miley

Pablo

Melancon

 

Many others.