A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Nick]

Full time catchers who will be available?

 

I'd like to see some names.

 

Wong....

[moonslav59]

That's where I disagree with most of Sox fans. His $7M, Richards $10M, Perez's $6M will get you closer to acquiring a stud ace. Catching is a defensive position. Surely there are good defensive catchers that can be had for couple of million.

 

I also disagree vehemently with Moon on potential Schwarber signing. His bat will add tremendous depth in 2022. Move Kike to 2B. Are you telling me now that Verdugo is the worst defensive center fielder? I thought he was the next stud when we got him in Betts deal.

 

Schwarber can play some 1B, LF, and DH.

 

Moon, aren't you the resident expert on replacing 'dead' bats with quality at bats? Surely you already have a plan to get Renfroe, Verdugo, Kike, Schwarber, Dalbec, Arroyo and JD plenty of bats in 2022 for 6 hitting spots. RIP to Marwin and Santana. Neither can play a lick.

 

600AB x 6 = 3600 AB

3600AB / 7 = 515 AB per 7 players.

 

Cora gives them days off anyway, whether needed or not.

 

I think our offense is very good, even without Schwarber. Schwarber is not the only good bat around. There is no need to double up on DHs just so we can have Schwarber in 2023, after JD bolts.

 

I'd love to have Schwarber back. It's not about that. It's about DH not being even close to our highest need area. The fact that he can play LF or maybe 1B, where we have two good players, already doesn't change the fact that he is a DH.

 

We have too many holes to fill in the pitching staff to think we can divert some funds to a low need area.

 

To me, defense is the second priority to pitching- not batting.

 

Again, if we can find a taker for JD, even if we pay $5-7M of his deal, I'd jump all over Schwarber. It's not worth paying $14M for 2 DHs, and then do complicated rotating rest regimes to find room for everyone to play 8 or 9 games out of every 10.

 

How much will it cost to fill these holes?

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 _____

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 _____

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Seabold

 

RP1 Houck

RP2 Whitlock

RP3 ______

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Taylor

RP6 ______

RP7 Sawamura

RP8 Rios, Davis, Brasier, Valdez

 

I'm thinking more than what our budget allows, and that's not counting the money we'll need to spend on a quality utility IF'er like maybe Iggy.

 

Ideally, we trade JD, sign Schwarber, sign Iggy and maybe Yan Gomes or Manny Pina at catcher. Then we have over $30+M to spend on 3-4 pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Full time catchers who will be available?

 

I'd like to see some names.

 

Yan Gomes

 

Manny Pina

 

Connor Wong & Ronald Hernandez

[Bellhorn04]

Wong....

 

Who has 3 major league starts.

[Nick]

Who has 3 major league starts.

 

I'm pretty sure every major leaguer had "3 starts" at one point in their career.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure every major leaguer had "3 starts" at one point in their career.

 

While true, I don't think starting the 2022 season with Wong and Ronald Hernandez as the only catchers is a winning decision.

 

I would think, if Wong was that good, he'd have replaced Plawecki, by now.

 

My point is:

 

Wong/Hernandez + $9M RP'er > Vaz/Plawecki and a scrub RP'er.

 

or

 

Pina/Wong + $6-7M RP'er >Vaz/Plawecki and a scrub RP'er.

[Nick]

I'd love to have Schwarber back. It's not about that. It's about DH not being even close to our highest need area. The fact that he can play LF or maybe 1B, where we have two good players, already doesn't change the fact that he is a DH.

 

I don't view Schwarber as DH only. I think he's better LF than JD. Who is to say Dalbec won't slump again in 2022? Then what?

 

Schwarber and JD will only overlap for one year.

[Nick]

While true, I don't think starting the 2022 season with Wong and Ronald Hernandez as the only catchers is a winning decision.

 

I would think, if Wong was that good, he'd have replaced Plawecki, by now.

 

Aren't you the one always trumpeting "they should play everyday" in the minors gaining experiencing and not the sit the bench in majors? Wong would have spent most of his time on his ass had he replaced Plawecki.

[Bellhorn04]

Yan Gomes

 

Manny Pina

 

Connor Wong & Ronald Hernandez

 

Pina does like interesting. Might only be capable of being BUC though, due to his age and the fact that's what he is with Brewers.

[moonslav59]

Aren't you the one always trumpeting "they should play everyday" in the minors gaining experiencing and not the sit the bench in majors? Wong would have spent most of his time on his ass had he replaced Plawecki.

 

I don't think Wong was kept in the minors to play everyday. That is part of it, but I doubt Bloom & Cora think he's good enough to play FT, next year.

 

As for playing everyday, the catching position is different. They rarely play 154 games as FT'ers. Most barely start 4 out of 5 games or even 3 out of 4, so the back-up catcher plays way more than the back-up 2Bman.

 

Only 9 catchers have over 100 GS'd at catcher.

Only 15 have 93 or more starts at catcher.

10 FT catchers in MLB, this year, have under 78 GS'd, so far.

 

[moonslav59]

Pina does like interesting. Might only be capable of being BUC though, due to his age and the fact that's what he is with Brewers.

 

Let's say Pina costs $3M, and we shed Vaz and Plawecki, who will cost about $9M, next season.

 

Is a Pina- Wong/Hernandez combo that much of a downgrade from Vaz/Plawecki, and if yes, does a $6M RP'er added make up the difference?

[moonslav59]

Aren't you the one always trumpeting "they should play everyday" in the minors gaining experiencing and not the sit the bench in majors? Wong would have spent most of his time on his ass had he replaced Plawecki.

 

The thing about Wong is, I have no idea how well he does with pitchers. If he's worse than Vaz, it's a bad decision.

[Nick]

The thing about Wong is, I have no idea how well he does with pitchers. If he's worse than Vaz, it's a bad decision.

 

We'll know soon enough if we pick up the option on Vaz.

 

We have Devers contract coming up. Aren't we doing something wrong if we're always butting up against the luxury tax limit?

 

Future

C Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Mayer

3B Blaze Jordan

OF Jimenez

OF Duran

OF Decker

SP Bello

SP Seabold

SP Groome

SP Mata

SP Winckowski

SP Ward

 

Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo, Verdugo can join above group along with Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, Darwinzon, Davis et al.

[moonslav59]

We'll know soon enough if we pick up the option on Vaz.

 

We have Devers contract coming up. Aren't we doing something wrong if we're always butting up against the luxury tax limit?

 

Future

C Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Mayer

3B Blaze Jordan

OF Jimenez

OF Duran

OF Decker

SP Bello

SP Seabold

SP Groome

SP Mata

SP Winckowski

SP Ward

 

Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo, Verdugo can join above group along with Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, Darwinzon, Davis et al.

 

Taking Vax’s option does not mean we keep him, but I agree the budget can be used better.

 

Some players you listed are very far away, and we can probably guess a few might be duds or nothing more than told players.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Bloom again seeks almost all one or two year deals, but to get the best of the best we will likely have to large and long on a pitcher. We could go shorter term with an older guy, but then the chances of decline or injury are greater.

[mvp 78]

I didn't realize that it was a club option for next year.

 

Honestly, I like Vaz, but I'd let him go.

[moonslav59]

I didn't realize that it was a club option for next year.

 

Honestly, I like Vaz, but I'd let him go.

 

It's only a $250K buy out, too.

 

The Richards one seems like a closer choice:

$10M team option

or

$1.5M buy out

 

I think I'd let them both go along with no-brainer Perez ($6M or $500K buyout).

 

The ERod choice of a QO might be closer than many think it is. One year deals are lower risk.

 

While it won't be easy or cheap to find a solid SP'er and a couple solid RP'ers, is anyone really broken up about is losing these FAs?

 

JD (opt out not likely)

Ottavino

ERod

Schwarber (player option to be turned down)

Vaz

Perez

Iggy

Marwin

Robles

Santana

Shaw

 

[mvp 78]

It's only a $250K buy out, too.

 

The Richards one seems like a closer choice:

$10M team option

or

$1.5M buy out

 

I think I'd let them both go along with no-brainer Perez ($6M or $500K buyout).

 

The ERod choice of a QO might be closer than many think it is. One year deals are lower risk.

 

While it won't be easy or cheap to find a solid SP'er and a couple solid RP'ers, is anyone really broken up about is losing these FAs?

 

JD (opt out not likely)

Ottavino

ERod

Schwarber (player option to be turned down)

Vaz

Perez

Iggy

Marwin

Robles

Santana

Shaw

 

 

Marwin is already gone. I'm fine with the other guys leaving, but I still lean towards trying to get ERod to stay on the QO. Sox should have money to spend this winter. I just hope they don't go the frugal route do to "uncertainty" over the CBA.

[moonslav59]

Marwin is already gone. I'm fine with the other guys leaving, but I still lean towards trying to get ERod to stay on the QO. Sox should have money to spend this winter. I just hope they don't go the frugal route do to "uncertainty" over the CBA.

 

I'm leaning towards the QO for ERod, too, nd wouldn't be upset, if he says no, and we get a sandwich pick.

 

If Bloom is given a $40M winter spending budget, like last winter, $19M for ERod eats much of that up, but if he can spend $45-60M, we should be able to build a serious contender for 2022.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

.

 

While it won't be easy or cheap to find a solid SP'er and a couple solid RP'ers, is anyone really broken up about is losing these FAs?

 

JD (opt out not likely)

Ottavino

ERod

Schwarber (player option to be turned down)

Vaz

Perez

Iggy

Marwin

Robles

Santana

Shaw

 

 

I dunno... while any of us could take the mound and bounce a ball to the backstop on our first pitch to let a run score in a close game, how many could throw it as hard as Robles -- so that the ball bounces even faster and further away from home plate?

[mvp 78]

I dunno... while any of us could take the mound and bounce a ball to the backstop on our first pitch to let a run score in a close game, how many could throw it as hard as Robles -- so that the ball bounces even faster and further away from home plate?

 

I'd like Scherf and Chavis back.

[notin]

I'd like Scherf and Chavis back.

 

Robles has a 0.00 ERA and a .281 OPSA in September.

 

Davis has a 0.00 ERA and a .580 OPSA in September.

 

They’ve both improved a bit..,

[moonslav59]

Robles has a 0.00 ERA and a .281 OPSA in September.

 

Davis has a 0.00 ERA and a .580 OPSA in September.

 

They’ve both improved a bit..,

 

Thanks for doing "nothing at the deadline", Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Players on the 40 man roster not even in the Sox system in Oct of 2018:

Whitlock

Kike

Verdugo

Renfroe

Pivetta

Arroyo

Seabold

Davis

Sawamura

Valdez

Cordero

Arauz

Wong

Rosario

Plawecki

Potts

Munoz

 

Schwarber

Richards

Robles

Iggy

Ottavino

Shaw

Perez

Santana

 

That's 25 new players in 2+ years. If you count Eovaldi, Brasier and Duran as mid 2018 additions, we have 28 out of 40 players not in the Sox organization before June 2018.

 

Several top prospects were acquired after the start of 2018, too:

 

1. Casas

2. Mayer

3. Yorke

4. Duran (on 40)

5. Downs (on 40)

8. Seabold

10. Jordan

12. Murphy

13. Bonaci

14. W Gonzalez

15. Song

16. Winckowski

17. Bleis

18. Ward

19. Wong (on 40)

20. Lugo

21. Paulino

22. R Hernandez

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

We'll know soon enough if we pick up the option on Vaz.

 

We have Devers contract coming up. Aren't we doing something wrong if we're always butting up against the luxury tax limit?

 

Future

C Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Yorke

SS Mayer

3B Blaze Jordan

OF Jimenez

OF Duran

OF Decker

SP Bello

SP Seabold

SP Groome

SP Mata

SP Winckowski

SP Ward

 

Devers, Dalbec, Arroyo, Verdugo can join above group along with Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, Darwinzon, Davis et al.

 

half those guys will never play for the Sox, and that rotation is missing an ace.

[Bellhorn04]

We'll know soon enough if we pick up the option on Vaz.

 

We have Devers contract coming up. Aren't we doing something wrong if we're always butting up against the luxury tax limit?

 

I would actually say no to that question.

 

That approach of being close to the limit started in the Theo Epstein glory years.

 

And I think it has a lot to do with our 4 championships.

 

Nick, I do enjoy and respect your opinions here, but to me it sounds a little like you've got 'Rays on the brain', as in, why can't we be the Rays?

 

First of all, I wholeheartedly agree that the Rays are doing a phenomenal job with their payroll limitations.

 

But I don't see how you can dismiss the fact that we're the ones with the most rings this century, and they still don't have one.

[moonslav59]

half those guys will never play for the Sox, and that rotation is missing an ace.

 

My point was that this has already been a near total rebuild. There is still a ways to go to get back to top dog.

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure what's wrong with operating close to and at times above the luxury tax limit.

 

Teams that consistently operate way under do so because they just don't have the same financial might to do so. This is why we have 4 championships in the the 21st century, lets be thankful we are not the Marlins.......yeah that's right, Florida had two teams in case ya'll forgot. lol.

[mvp 78]

I would actually say no to that question.

 

That approach of being close to the limit started in the Theo Epstein glory years.

 

And I think it has a lot to do with our 4 championships.

 

Nick, I do enjoy and respect your opinions here, but to me it sounds a little like you've got 'Rays on the brain', as in, why can't we be the Rays?

 

First of all, I wholeheartedly agree that the Rays are doing a phenomenal job with their payroll limitations.

 

But I don't see how you can dismiss the fact that we're the ones with the most rings this century, and they still don't have one.

 

Since the Rays were born:

 

Red Sox: 4 WS titles

Rays: 0 WS titles (only 3 games won in 2 series)

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure what's wrong with operating close to and at times above the luxury tax limit.

 

Teams that consistently operate way under do so because they just don't have the same financial might to do so. This is why we have 4 championships in the the 21st century, lets be thankful we are not the Marlins.......yeah that's right, Florida had two teams in case ya'll forgot. lol.

 

If you can successfully manage it, you can always remain close enough to the limit where you can go under every few years and not have to consider it a "cliff."

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure what's wrong with operating close to and at times above the luxury tax limit.

 

Teams that consistently operate way under do so because they just don't have the same financial might to do so. This is why we have 4 championships in the the 21st century, lets be thankful we are not the Marlins.......yeah that's right, Florida had two teams in case ya'll forgot. lol.

 

Very true.

 

Ironically, perhaps, it's the Marlins who have the 2 championships.