A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Larry Cook]

Wrong. I said I’d keep him for 2022, if he made $2M.

 

The CERA is just one factor out of many, including his decline in offense, that makes him not worth $7M.

 

How much of his decline in offense is due to overuse? He had a stretch to this season where he played too much and his numbers suffered.

[moonslav59]

How much of his decline in offense is due to overuse? He had a stretch to this season where he played too much and his numbers suffered.

 

That could be part of it, and he’s been up and down on offense before.

 

He is on pace for 100 more innings behind the plate than any other season, but does that change what we can expect next year?

 

That $7M scares me, and I’m not sure we can find someone better.

[Larry Cook]

That could be part of it, and he’s been up and down on offense before.

 

He is on pace for 100 more innings behind the plate than any other season, but does that change what we can expect next year?

 

That $7M scares me, and I’m not sure we can find someone better.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that Hang’em Chaim and his analytics department are more than capable of finding two catchers that offensively out perform this year’s group, but my gut says they bring him back next year.

[moonslav59]

There is no doubt in my mind that Hang’em Chaim and his analytics department are more than capable of finding two catchers that offensively out perform this year’s group, but my gut says they bring him back next year.

 

My gut says they find a defensive catcher like the Rays always did, but they may wait until Vaz’s contract expires.

[Bellhorn04]

Wrong. I said I’d keep him for 2022, if he made $2M.

 

LOL same thing.

[moonslav59]

LOL same thing.

 

It’s more about the $7M than CERA. Plus other factors take some of the pie, too.

[Bellhorn04]

My main point about Vazquez is that the Red Sox obviously have invested a lot of faith in his catching skills over the last 5 years or so. Which means the CERA numbers don't influence them much. Cora has been playing him "too much" this year, if anything.

[Bellhorn04]

Here are some CERA/COPS numbers to chew on. Not big samples, obviously, but still.

 

Whitlock

Vazquez 62.2 IP 1.58 ERA .590 OPS

Plawecki 9.2 IP 4.66 ERA .909 OPS

 

Houck

Vazquez 49.1 IP 1.82 ERA .556 OPS

Plawecki 28 IP 4.82 ERA .679 OPS

 

Whitlock and Houck are pretty key guys for 2022.

 

Are we sure we don't want Vaz catching them?

[moonslav59]

Here are some CERA/COPS numbers to chew on. Not big samples, obviously, but still.

 

Whitlock

Vazquez 62.2 IP 1.58 ERA .590 OPS

Plawecki 9.2 IP 4.66 ERA .909 OPS

 

Houck

Vazquez 49.1 IP 1.82 ERA .556 OPS

Plawecki 28 IP 4.82 ERA .679 OPS

 

Whitlock and Houck are pretty key guys for 2022.

 

Are we sure we don't want Vaz catching them?

 

Wow! You found 2, and one has a 9.2 IP sample size.

 

Sure, that offsets all the pitchers with over a 100 IP.

 

BTW, yes, I want Vaz catching starters he does better with. That's a no brainer.

 

If Houck and or Whitlock start, next year, I'd like to see how it goes over a larger sample size, but if they keep doing well, I'd 100% make sure Vaz is their catcher- assuming Plawecki is back..

[moonslav59]

My main point about Vazquez is that the Red Sox obviously have invested a lot of faith in his catching skills over the last 5 years or so. Which means the CERA numbers don't influence them much. Cora has been playing him "too much" this year, if anything.

 

I have never come close to saying this is not true.

 

The Sox obviously like what Vaz brings to the game more than Plawecki- enough to get him the most innings as a catcher in his career.

 

Why do you keep implying I want Vaz's innings reduced over CERA?

 

I don't, at least as long as Plawecki is the other choice.

[mvp 78]

It might have more to do with regularly resting Vazquez, especially since catcher is a fairly grueling position physically.

 

Over the season, Plawecki has caught Eovaldi 16 times to 12 for Vazquez, so this is not a new radical change…

 

Wait... So Plawecki has caught the Sox' best pitcher more than the other guy and still has a worse overall CERA? I thought Plawecki only caught scrubs and Vaz caught the good pitchers... Hmmm...

[mvp 78]

My main point about Vazquez is that the Red Sox obviously have invested a lot of faith in his catching skills over the last 5 years or so. Which means the CERA numbers don't influence them much. Cora has been playing him "too much" this year, if anything.

 

Problem is that Vaz lobbies to catch as much as possible. He wants to be one of those guys that carries the load. He's just not that guy this year.

[Bellhorn04]

I have never come close to saying this is not true.

 

The Sox obviously like what Vaz brings to the game more than Plawecki- enough to get him the most innings as a catcher in his career.

 

Why do you keep implying I want Vaz's innings reduced over CERA?

 

You somehow keep missing the point. I'm talking about the fact you don't want them to bring him back next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Wow! You found 2, and one has a 9.2 IP sample size.

 

Sure, that offsets all the pitchers with over a 100 IP.

 

Yeah, but forget about the comparison and just look at the numbers for Whitlock and Houck when they throw to Vaz. They're crazy good.

[Bellhorn04]

Problem is that Vaz lobbies to catch as much as possible. He wants to be one of those guys that carries the load. He's just not that guy this year.

 

You mean because of his weak offensive numbers?

[moonslav59]

Wait... So Plawecki has caught the Sox' best pitcher more than the other guy and still has a worse overall CERA? I thought Plawecki only caught scrubs and Vaz caught the good pitchers... Hmmm...

 

You still don't get it, and BTW, our best pitchers is Sale (all with Vaz). Yes, Plawecki catches Eovaldi more, maybe because Eovaldi does much better with him.

 

For one thing, Plawecki has a better overall OPS Against than Vaz, and I've never said it was all about ERA (CERA), in fact I don't like non adjusted ERA as a stat.

 

Here are the numbers:

Percent of total PAs caught:

 

Blue- less than 1% with other catcher

Red- leader in OPS Against

 

Plawecki

27.6 Eovaldi .651

11.7 Pivetta .660

8.6 Houck .679

6.4 Richards .674

5.5 Perez 1.163

5.3 Taylor .640

5.2 Ottavino .765

3.9 DHern .478

3.8 Valdez .596

3.1 Whitlock .909

2.8 Barnes .828

2.2 Weber 1.500

2.0 Robles .893 & Andriese .675

1.7 Brice .492 & Davis 1.069

1.3 Sawamura .620 & Rios .902

1.0 Schreiber .885 & Crawford 1.538

0.0 ERod

 

Vaz

14.6 ERod .777

11.7 Richards .849

10.6 Pivetta .777

9.7 Perez .784

6.1 Eovaldi .732

5.8 Whitlock .590

4.5 Sawamura .774

4.2 Ottavino .620

3.9 Barnes .594

3.4 Sale .750

3.2 Andriese 1.002

3.1 Taylor .674

3.0 Houck .607

2.8 DHern .742

2.7 Valdez .632

1.8 Workman .828 & Rios .599

1.4 Robles .705

1.1 Davis .520

1.0 Brice 1.056

 

Looking at the wide disparities in % of PAs caught with each pitcher, one can see why using overall OPS against or CERA is a joke.

 

One can argue Plawecki caught better pitchers, but I would not agree, and how each pitcher did with each catcher one by one, shows more. Although the edge is only 9-8 in Plawecki's favor, the ones Vaz leads in are bunched more towards the lower PAs than the upper ones, like Plawecki's is. Among pitchers with 3.5% or more- Plawecki leads 6-4, but they are not the same 10 pitchers.

 

Look at the pitchers in blue and the PAs with them vs none or almost none with the other catcher:

 

Vaz: ERod (Workman a little)

 

Plawecki: Weber (Schreiber & Crawford a little)

 

Edited September 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The numbers say one of two things:

 

1) Plawecki certainly does better with some starters, but Vaz does much much better with the relievers.

2) Screaming randomness.

[Bellhorn04]

It might also be worth noting that coming into this season, Vaz had played in 476 MLB games.

 

moon, haven't you determined that it took several years before Varitek became a 'good CERA guy'?

[mvp 78]

The numbers say one of two things:

 

1) Plawecki certainly does better with some starters, but Vaz does much much better with the relievers.

2) Screaming randomness.

 

Gee willikers, I guess we just don't get it! I mean, he keeps saying the same dumb s*** over and over again, but it's really us that don't get it.

[mvp 78]

It might also be worth noting that coming into this season, Vaz had played in 476 MLB games.

 

moon, haven't you determined that it took several years before Varitek became a 'good CERA guy'?

 

What made him a good CERA guy was him getting a better pitching staff.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, but forget about the comparison and just look at the numbers for Whitlock and Houck when they throw to Vaz. They're crazy good.

 

Yes, they are. Way, way better. You do know, however, small samples sizes are not something you make lasting decisions over, but I'd be fine leaving those two with Vaz, unless or until something might change.

 

Why do you feel like these 2 outweigh the mega disparities with pitchers who have over 100 IP with 2 or more Sox pitchers?

[moonslav59]

The numbers say one of two things:

 

1) Plawecki certainly does better with some starters, but Vaz does much much better with the relievers.

2) Screaming randomness.

 

Screaming it's about comfort level and some pitchers are more comfortable with vaz and others (more) with anyone not named vaz.

[moonslav59]

It might also be worth noting that coming into this season, Vaz had played in 476 MLB games.

 

moon, haven't you determined that it took several years before Varitek became a 'good CERA guy'?

 

Yes, I did determine that, and that was one reason I never gave up on Vaz. I think VTek was like 29-30 when it clicked. Posada sucked from start to finish.

 

Again, I have never been for benching or limiting Vaz's innings based on CERA/ COPS against. I have only been saying that when figuring a catcher's overall value, this area should be included in the factors. I'm not even sure, myself, how much it should count, but it's more than "Zero" as MVP thinks.

[mvp 78]

Screaming it's about comfort level and some pitchers are more comfortable with vaz and others (more) with anyone not named vaz.

 

Could a pitcher be more comfortable with Vaz, but have a better CERA with Plawecki?

[moonslav59]

Could a pitcher be more comfortable with Vaz, but have a better CERA with Plawecki?

 

Probably, but unlikely more than 1 or 2.

 

It's not all about pitch-calling. I'm thinking a lot has to do with intangibles and relationships.

[mvp 78]

Probably, but unlikely more than 1 or 2.

 

It's not all about pitch-calling. I'm thinking a lot has to do with intangibles and relationships.

 

So it wouldn't have to do with CERA then.

[Nick]

Dominoes will fall next couple of years.

 

Q1 Will JD opt out?

A1 I don't see this as an issue. If he opts out, Sox can find a DH replacement for less than $22M. Schwarber probably will be available.

JD will be gone after 2022 at the latest.

 

Q2 Will Xander opt out after 2022.

A2 Short answer is let's see what he does in 2022.

There's no point in bidding against ourselves right now.

 

Q3 Will we extend Devers? When?

A3 Not sure.

If Casas becomes our full time 1B in 2023 (Devers last arb year), what happens to Dalbec?

2023 will be Dalbec's final year before arbitration. I like him. He's cheap.

Any chance we'll move Dalbec to 3B and trade Devers?

 

Q4 At what point do we go away from Vaz?

A4 Do the Sox view Connor Wong as good enough defensive catcher to replace Vaz?

Will robo ump become a reality and a guy like Hernandez become a starter?

 

Q5 Do we give Kike a long term deal if he continues his offensive surge into 2022?

A5 Yes, Sox loves that he can lead off and play CF and IF.

 

Q6 Will we sign Schwarber even if JD does not opt out?

A6 Yes, 2022 likely will be JD's last year. Schwarber can find enough at bats at DH, LF and 1B. He'll be cheaper than JD.

 

Q7 Will Mayer (18) and Yorke (19) become our long term double play combo?

A7 Long way off but yes. Yorke shed 20 pounds last winter to become quicker and he knows how to hit. Mayer was projected to be the #1 pick by many in

this year's draft.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

So it wouldn't have to do with CERA then.

 

Comfort level and relationship disparities can cause better or worse results, so no. I think it does affect CERA and COPS Against.

[mvp 78]

Comfort level and relationship disparities can cause better or worse results, so no. I think it does affect CERA and COPS Against.

 

If a pitcher is more comfortable with one catcher over the other, wouldn't they lobby to only have a certain catcher catch them?

[moonslav59]

If a pitcher is more comfortable with one catcher over the other, wouldn't they lobby to only have a certain catcher catch them?

 

I think they often do- some publically so, but that is rare.

 

I think managers recognize certain pitcher-catcher match-ups make more sense, while some pitchers, it doesn't seem to matter.

 

It's interesting that hardly any managers rest catchers based on batting splits or histories vs certain pitchers. Many FT catchers catch 4 starters and the back-up is assigned one specific starter. Maybe they base this on comfort level or looking at past data like CERA and C-OPS Against, or what pitchers request or comment about.

 

It's clear that ERod is caught by only vaz, which to me seems strange, since he was one starter that seemed to do close to equal with any catcher.

 

Eovaldi has done better without Vaz, even before Plawecki, so it is no wonder, to me, that Plawecki catches him at a higher percent than others.

 

Pivetta has almost equal percentages with both catchers and his OPS against is pretty close between the two. Coincidence? Maybe.

 

Perez is caught by Plawecki almost 2X the percent as Vaz (9.7% to 5.5%). You think that might have to do with him having almost a .400 point better OPS against with Plawecki, or is this just random?

 

Richards has done almost 100 points better with Plawecki, but he has been caught almost 2X the percent with Vaz. This goes against the grain, so to speak.

 

Sale has pitched with Vaz, only.

 

RP'ers are different, because the manager does not choose who is catching their games bases on them pitching.