A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

By what measure? 5IP 1ER is a 1.80 ERA…

 

Is it a Quality Start?

[mvp 78]

Total randomness and small sample sizes.

 

(Also, the 1 ER in 5 IP was better.)

 

Nope.

[notin]

Is it a Quality Start?

 

Was that the criteria? The post only said “best outing”…

[moonslav59]

Is it a Quality Start?

 

You actually agree with the parameters of that dumb stat but think CERA has zero meaning?

[moonslav59]

Was that the criteria? The post only said “best outing”…

 

He actually listed ERA next to some and not "QS."

[mvp 78]

Was that the criteria? The post only said “best outing”…

 

To me, that makes it the best outing. 5th inning shmith inning. Give me 6 or nuthin.

[mvp 78]

You actually agree with the parameters of that dumb stat but think CERA has zero meaning?

 

Are you saying that QS front offices don't care about QS's? How do YOU know this?

 

I think they matter very much. Here's 100 posts of me saying that they matter and never listening to other posters who want to talk about something else.

[mvp 78]

He actually listed ERA next to some and not "QS."

 

The CERA was the total you dope. You nutjob. You goober.

[notin]

To me, that makes it the best outing. 5th inning shmith inning. Give me 6 or nuthin.

 

So 3 ER in 6 innings is better than 5 shutout innings?

[mvp 78]

"He actually blah blah blah blah..."

 

You can't pull any gotcha stuff with me old man. Take your s*** back to April 2016, weirdo.

[mvp 78]

So 3 ER in 6 innings is better than 5 shutout innings?

 

I think that answer is obvious.

[mvp 78]

If he pitched that 6th inning, maybe he gives up 4 runs like he did in the other start.

[moonslav59]

The CERA was the total you dope. You nutjob. You goober.

 

Nice to see you using CERA.

 

I knew you'd come around.

[mvp 78]

He sucked after 2009 anyway. I guess Tito ignoring CERA lead to chicken and beer and the downfall of the 2012 Sox. Damn.

[mvp 78]

Nice to see you using CERA.

 

I knew you'd come around.

 

I was told that they picked VMart because of his offense, not because of CERA. Was that true? I was told that they intentionally took someone with worse CERA? Flipped it. Is that not true?

[notin]

He sucked after 2009 anyway. I guess Tito ignoring CERA lead to chicken and beer and the downfall of the 2012 Sox. Damn.

 

The “C” in CERA stands for “chicken.” Very few people know that…

[mvp 78]

The “C” in CERA stands for “chicken.” Very few people know that…

 

Red Sox and XBox rhyme.

 

The call is coming from inside the clubhouse.

[moonslav59]

It's interesting to see so much talk about something that doesn't even exist.

[notin]

It's interesting to see so much talk about something that doesn't even exist.

 

The XBox exists!!!

 

That’s what the “X” in Xbox stands for. Very few people know that…

[mvp 78]

The XBox exists!!!

 

That’s what the “X” in Xbox stands for. Very few people know that…

 

Xander

[mvp 78]

It's interesting to see so much talk about something that doesn't even exist.

 

You were the one to open the pandora's box. It's your fault.

[mvp 78]

Anyway, back to clutch vs choke, Dice-K's gyroball and how Fenway is a great place to see a game.

[mvp 78]

His previous 5 starts:

6 innings 2 ER, VMart 3.00 CERA

8 innings 3 ER, Tek

5 innings 1 ER, Tek

7 innings 3 ER, Tek

6 innings 4 ER, Tek 3.80 CERA

 

The best outing of those 5 starts was with VMart.

 

I'm disappointed in the responses to this. Goodbye.

[Nick]

Back to 2022 Red Sox

 

Ottavino, Richards, E Rod, Vaz, Perez, Dustin and Beni will provide $55M worth of relief. That give us about $60M to spend.

 

We lose only Vaz on positional side. Maybe Wong can be a replacement. It's not as though Vaz had a stellar offensive year. His $7M is too steep in my mind.

 

Would the Rays sign Vaz for $7M? Absolutely not. Why should we?

 

To me it's worth $15M to sign Schwarber knowing JT is in his last year of $22M contract.

 

We can then focus on pitching

 

1 Sale

2 Eovaldi

3 Pivetta

4 Seabold ???

5 FA???

 

Pen

1 Houck (5 yrs of team control)

2 Whitlock (5 yrs of team control)

3 Barnes (2 yrs of team control)

4 Sawamura (2 yrs of team control)

5 Taylor (4 yrs of team control)

6 Darwinzon (4 yrs of team control)

7 Davis (4 yrs of team control)

8 Robles (FA)

9 Brasier (2 yrs of team control)

 

On paper, our bullpen is set with several players under control for multiple years.

 

We could plug in Whitlock and Seabold to completer the starting rotation.

 

In theory, we could not spend a dime and put a team out there that might be competitive.

 

I want Bloom to spend the money wisely. Keeping Vaz at $7M is unwise.

[moonslav59]

Back to 2022 Red Sox

 

Ottavino, Richards, E Rod, Vaz, Perez, Dustin and Beni will provide $55M worth of relief. That give us about $60M to spend.

 

We lose only Vaz on positional side. Maybe Wong can be a replacement. It's not as though Vaz had a stellar offensive year. His $7M is too steep in my mind.

 

Would the Rays sign Vaz for $7M? Absolutely not. Why should we?

 

To me it's worth $15M to sign Schwarber knowing JT is in his last year of $22M contract.

 

We can then focus on pitching

 

1 Sale

2 Eovaldi

3 Pivetta

4 Seabold ???

5 FA???

 

Pen

1 Houck (5 yrs of team control)

2 Whitlock (5 yrs of team control)

3 Barnes (2 yrs of team control)

4 Sawamura (2 yrs of team control)

5 Taylor (4 yrs of team control)

6 Darwinzon (4 yrs of team control)

7 Davis (4 yrs of team control)

8 Robles (FA)

9 Brasier (2 yrs of team control)

 

On paper, our bullpen is set with several players under control for multiple years.

 

We could plug in Whitlock and Seabold to completer the starting rotation.

 

In theory, we could not spend a dime and put a team out there that might be competitive.

 

I want Bloom to spend the money wisely. Keeping Vaz at $7M is unwise.

 

If we think any GM would want Vaz at $7M, take the option and trade him. Otherwise, I agree, do not take the option.

 

With arb raises, we won't have $60M, and if we spend $15M on a second DH, we'll have $15M less to spend on pitching. I love Schwarber. I'm a big fan of JD, too, but even I would try to trade JD, so we could keep Schwarber, even if we eat $5-7M of his deal. If we don't or can't trade JD, I'd pass on Schwarber. Trading Verdugo or Renfroe could free up space for Kyle, too, but I'm not sure that's a good idea.

 

I love the idea of Houck and Whitlock in the pen, but with the cost of decent SP'ers so high, and the lack of clear FA pitching targets on the market, this winter, maybe moving Whitlock to starter- taking ERod's slot is a better idea. Spending on decent set-up RP'ers should be less costly, and we can get 2-3 of them for the cost of one top starter.

 

My guess is we make one big trade, and maybe even with a surprise player (like Bogey, Verdugo, Renfroe or even the inexpensive Dalbec.)

 

I hope Henry opens the wallet, and Bloom spends what he gets wisely. I like our depth, now. I think our farm has a few pieces that offer even more depth, but we still will need a super utility guy that will blow Marwin away. That should not cost an arm and a leg. We got Kike for $7M x 2.

 

Do not spend on another DH, unless we unload JD and add a little cost by signing Schwarber and paying part of JD's deal.

 

Sign a super utility player and call the non pitcher roster a go.

 

Use as much of the financial and trade capital remaining to improve the pitching. I'd like to see our defense improved, too, but it's too complicated for this winter.

 

I think we can avoid a long term deal for a SP'er by going with an older one like Scherzer, Verlander or Greinke. We probably shouldnt try to win a bidding war for Kershaw or Gausman. Stroman might be worth it, but I'd have to see the final offers. A sleeper pick might be someone like Kikuchi, a guy I wanted us to try and trade for, last winter. Robbie Ray and ERod (QO offer?) have to be on the table, too. If we can't get any of these guys, a trade would have to be found. Otherwise, we go with this:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Whitlock

Seabold

 

Not a winning rotation. Even keeping ERod and replacing Perez/Richards/Houck with Whitlock may not be enough.

 

Lots to think about, but the budget should not be an issue, if we focus it almost all of it on pitching.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

While I agree that $7 mill is a lot for Vazquez, I really don't think it's the back-breaker you guys are making it sound like. It's a one year commitment. I'm not sure there's a slam dunk replacement for him.

 

My guess is they keep him. Bigger fish to fry.

[moonslav59]

While I agree that $7 mill is a lot for Vazquez, I really don't think it's the back-breaker you guys are making it sound like. It's a one year commitment. I'm not sure there's a slam dunk replacement for him.

 

My guess is they keep him. Bigger fish to fry.

 

I didn't say it's a back-breaker. I think he would likely get that on the FA market, especially for a 1 year deal.

 

I happen to think we can do batter at that cost, but I'm not sure Bloom & Cora agree. I won't be too disappointed, if he's back for another year.

 

I think there are some fine catchers out there that do great on defense and handling the staff, but struggle on offense. I'm not so sure Vaz can or will return to his near .800 OPS of 2019-2020, so we may not be losing any offense by replacing him.

 

It's not a major aspect of my suggestions for upgrades, this winter, but it seems like an easier one than moving stars off position or trading them. I think the other 8 positions are pretty well set. With Iggy and Shaw free agents, this winter: catcher and utility infielder seem like the most likely and easiest positions to upgrade.

 

Pitching should be our major focus. Defense seems too complicated to deal with, this winter, except for maybe making sure the utility player and catcher are top notch defenders.

[moonslav59]

I had us at about $170M with Vaz's $7M, JD staying and player benefits and arbs figured in.

 

Not knowing what the new tax structure will be makes it hard make suggestions, now, but I'm thinking we can probably spend $30-50M, this winter.

 

A very good utility IF'er should not cost that much.

 

The rest should be spent on not just replacing ERod, Richards, Perez, Robles & Ottavino but improving on them. If we can spend $50M, it should be easy, but $30M means we have to be right on just about every signing and trade.

 

[Nick]

While I agree that $7 mill is a lot for Vazquez, I really don't think it's the back-breaker you guys are making it sound like. It's a one year commitment. I'm not sure there's a slam dunk replacement for him.

 

My guess is they keep him. Bigger fish to fry.

 

That's where I disagree with most of Sox fans. His $7M, Richards $10M, Perez's $6M will get you closer to acquiring a stud ace. Catching is a defensive position. Surely there are good defensive catchers that can be had for couple of million.

 

I also disagree vehemently with Moon on potential Schwarber signing. His bat will add tremendous depth in 2022. Move Kike to 2B. Are you telling me now that Verdugo is the worst defensive center fielder? I thought he was the next stud when we got him in Betts deal.

 

Schwarber can play some 1B, LF, and DH.

 

Moon, aren't you the resident expert on replacing 'dead' bats with quality at bats? Surely you already have a plan to get Renfroe, Verdugo, Kike, Schwarber, Dalbec, Arroyo and JD plenty of bats in 2022 for 6 hitting spots. RIP to Marwin and Santana. Neither can play a lick.

 

600AB x 6 = 3600 AB

3600AB / 7 = 515 AB per 7 players.

 

Cora gives them days off anyway, whether needed or not.

Edited September 26, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

That's where I disagree with most of Sox fans. His $7M, Richards $10M, Perez's $6M will get you closer to acquiring a stud ace. Catching is a defensive position. Surely there are good defensive catchers that can be had for couple of million.

 

Full time catchers who will be available?

 

I'd like to see some names.