A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Screw 2023. The time is 2022. I would not worry about making up 8 games, as that is an impossible target, given that Tampa is also going to make offseason moves out of my control.

 

First off, I keep Bogaerts. In fact, I try to extend him. I ignore the SS free agent market, because Lindor signed an extension all of them will be benchmarking. It's a waste of resources.

 

In free agency, the focus should be on RP and 2B and Kyle Schwarber. If JD opts out, he might be added to this list. If he does not, I will worry about where Schwarber plays later. My irst thought was Chris Taylor for 2B, but some points about his weaknesses have been made. One intriguing free agent is Eduardo Escobar, whose defensive metrics at 2B are actually fairly good, but are also in limited action. If the focus is straight up defense, metrics say the best options are Joe Panik and Yollmer Sanchez. Another option worth exploring might be a trad with San Diego for Adam Frazier (since the Padres still need to find a place for CJ Abrams to play). Frazier might make about $6mill or so next season, but can hit and field pretty well and has just the solitary season of control left. His BTV trade value of $0.8mill makes him available for a lot of individual Sox prospects, and the best fit might be Durban Feltman ($0.5mill).

 

Keep both Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen. I like the idea of making as many games as possible 6 innings long for the opposing team. Support them with Taylor, Barnes, Braiser, Valdez, Davis and (if he is not traded) Darwinzon Hernandez

 

I try to upgrade the starting pitching via trade with my first call being Oakland and using Jarren Duran as the centerpiece of my trade package. All other prospects are in play except Casas and Mayer. Montas is my top target, but I have my doubts. I also want to acquire their arb-eligible closer Lou Trivino. If Oakland is not amenable, I turn to Detroit, who has lots of young pitching and no young hitting. ERod gets a QO. And extension talks, if he refuses it. Along with Sale, Pivetta, and Eovaldi and whoever comes via trade,

 

And then I attack the pitching depth with lots and lots of MiLB deals...

 

I'm on board and my brain is expecting only half of that to happen.

[Old Red]

For a long time I thought no. But now I’m thinking chances are he bolts.

 

I’m beginning to think that JD will bolt too. Now the next question is do you replace him with another full time DH, or just use different guys there, and use the money elsewhere. I know people on here have swooned over Schwaber, but you know as well as I do that he is no JD. He will hit as many HR, but is not the hitter, or run producer that JD is, and not someone who you would give a lifetime contract to that some have suggested on here.

[notin]

I'm on board and my brain is expecting only half of that to happen.

 

I think the future probably holds none of those moves besides keeping Bogaerts.

 

I should mention I also non-tender Plawecki and give Wong first shot at the back up catcher role...

[notin]

I’m beginning to think that JD will bolt too. Now the next question is do you replace him with another full time DH, or just use different guys there, and use the money elsewhere. I know people on here have swooned over Schwaber, but you know as well as I do that he is no JD. He will hit as many HR, but is not the hitter, or run producer that JD is, and not someone who you would give a lifetime contract to that some have suggested on here.

 

Disagree on Schwarber vs JD. Over the last 3 years, Schwarber has an OPS+ of 126 and JD has an OPS+ of 125. They're more equal than you give them credit for being. Not sure how many years he wants, which should be the biggest factor in determining if he his a fit...

[moonslav59]

I've leaned that way for a while. I think I said it was 60/40. There's a decent chance he stays, but it's more likely he's gone (which I'm actually ok with). I don't see the need for this version of the Sox to spend big money on a DH.

 

That's how I see it. I'd like him back, but at that cost, I think the money can probably be spent better.

[moonslav59]

No, it was not having a black hole at 2b, having a CF that could actually hit, having a 1b that could actually hit, JD regaining his swing, ERod coming back healthy, Sale providing a decent 1/2 year, getting 30 GS out of Pivetta, the additions of Ottavino/Sawamura and a full season of Taylor in the pen.

 

The 2020 Sox were 29th in starter IP and dead last in WHIP (top 4 starters were Perez, Eovaldi, Mazza and Godley). For relief, the 2020 Sox were 28th in WHiP and dead last in runs given up. Just getting mediocre pitching results really turned the team around.

 

The 2020 Sox were just a dreadful squad. Embarrassing.

 

I meant their biggest spending on one player was Richards ($10M). Their third most, after Kike at $7M was Perez at $6M.

[Old Red]

Disagree on Schwarber vs JD. Over the last 3 years, Schwarber has an OPS+ of 126 and JD has an OPS+ of 125. They're more equal than you give them credit for being. Not sure how many years he wants, which should be the biggest factor in determining if he his a fit...

 

I could care less about any of those stats. Schwaber has only had over 71 RBI once, and has a high BA of 266 in his career. That is what I look at, and he doesn’t match up to JD as a run producer, which is what I would want.

[moonslav59]

Screw 2023. The time is 2022. I would not worry about making up 8 games, as that is an impossible target, given that Tampa is also going to make offseason moves out of my control.

 

First off, I keep Bogaerts. In fact, I try to extend him. I ignore the SS free agent market, because Lindor signed an extension all of them will be benchmarking. It's a waste of resources.

 

In free agency, the focus should be on RP and 2B and Kyle Schwarber. If JD opts out, he might be added to this list. If he does not, I will worry about where Schwarber plays later. My irst thought was Chris Taylor for 2B, but some points about his weaknesses have been made. One intriguing free agent is Eduardo Escobar, whose defensive metrics at 2B are actually fairly good, but are also in limited action. If the focus is straight up defense, metrics say the best options are Joe Panik and Yollmer Sanchez. Another option worth exploring might be a trad with San Diego for Adam Frazier (since the Padres still need to find a place for CJ Abrams to play). Frazier might make about $6mill or so next season, but can hit and field pretty well and has just the solitary season of control left. His BTV trade value of $0.8mill makes him available for a lot of individual Sox prospects, and the best fit might be Durban Feltman ($0.5mill).

 

Keep both Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen. I like the idea of making as many games as possible 6 innings long for the opposing team. Support them with Taylor, Barnes, Braiser, Valdez, Davis and (if he is not traded) Darwinzon Hernandez

 

I try to upgrade the starting pitching via trade with my first call being Oakland and using Jarren Duran as the centerpiece of my trade package. All other prospects are in play except Casas and Mayer. Montas is my top target, but I have my doubts. I also want to acquire their arb-eligible closer Lou Trivino. If Oakland is not amenable, I turn to Detroit, who has lots of young pitching and no young hitting. ERod gets a QO. And extension talks, if he refuses it. Along with Sale, Pivetta, and Eovaldi and whoever comes via trade,

 

And then I attack the pitching depth with lots and lots of MiLB deals...

 

No mention of Iggy for 2B & back up SS?

 

All sounds reasonable.

 

I like the 2 years of Montas much more than 1 for Bassit or Manaea. Of course, he will cost more, but I think Duran has the value to start an acceptable package for Montas & Trevino.

[notin]

That's how I see it. I'd like him back, but at that cost, I think the money can probably be spent better.

 

I like the idea of a primary DH, rather than the (IMO) foolish option of using the position to rest players. The position is basically a freebie for getting a productive bat into the lineup without worrying about defense.

 

Internally, the Sox are somewhat limited unless one prefers a Dalbec/Casas type at the position. To me, not the ideal solution.

 

If the Sox cannot keep either JD or Schwarber, then the other options on the market that might not break the bank do include Mark Canha, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and maybe Eddie Rosario. The dirt cheap longshot is Renato Nunez, who showed once that he can be a slugger, but primarily just struggles to stay in MLB. But his spray charts show that Fenway might actually agree with his dead pull power. If he is left out alone with no dance partner again, absolutely get him a MiLB deal at minimum...

[notin]

No mention of Iggy for 2B & back up SS?

 

All sounds reasonable.

 

I like the 2 years of Montas much more than 1 for Bassit or Manaea. Of course, he will cost more, but I think Duran has the value to start an acceptable package for Montas & Trevino.

 

Iggy deserves some consideration, but I already have Arroyo for that role, and also Arauz (with options!) for when Arroyo injures himself running the bases or brushing his teeth or watching from the bench or whatever high risk activities he clearly engages in far too often...

[notin]

No mention of Iggy for 2B & back up SS?

 

All sounds reasonable.

 

I like the 2 years of Montas much more than 1 for Bassit or Manaea. Of course, he will cost more, but I think Duran has the value to start an acceptable package for Montas & Trevino.

 

It comes down to who else Oakland wants. I have mixed emotions about dealing Duran and Yorke for Montas and Trivino...

[moonslav59]

Iggy deserves some consideration, but I already have Arroyo for that role, and also Arauz (with options!) for when Arroyo injures himself running the bases or brushing his teeth or watching from the bench or whatever high risk activities he clearly engages in far too often...

 

I'd have Iggy as the starting 2Bman and Arroyo at utility, in hopes he can't get hurt sitting on the bench.

[moonslav59]

It comes down to who else Oakland wants. I have mixed emotions about dealing Duran and Yorke for Montas and Trivino...

 

Duran and Downs?

 

They might want pitching:

Duran and Mata

Duran and Seabold

Duran, Groome and Winckowski

[mvp 78]

Duran and Downs?

 

They might want pitching:

Duran and Mata

Duran and Seabold

Duran, Groome and Winckowski

 

I'm fine with dealing any and all of those guys for a good return.

 

The guys I'd prefer to hold onto are Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Bello and Wilkelman Gonzalez. I'd have to be bowled over with an offer to move on those guys.

[notin]

I'd have Iggy as the starting 2Bman and Arroyo at utility, in hopes he can't get hurt sitting on the bench.

 

That also could be a possibility. Actually both starting Iggy and Arroyo huting himself on the bench are possible..

 

Iglesias hit well last year, but that was probably an aberration, given how the rest of his season went. He might be a better option than Yollmer Sanchez for the role. But both are basically Glove Men who will bat 9th. Arguing one over the other is tantamount to guessing.

Edited November 2, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Duran and Downs?

 

They might want pitching:

Duran and Mata

Duran and Seabold

Duran, Groome and Winckowski

 

I don't think Mata coming off TJ is going to carry the value he should carry. He won't even throw a pitch before August.

 

If you were GM of Oakland, would you deal Montas and Trivino for any of those packages, or try to get Yorke? That you have removed Yorke from the offer tells me the answer.

 

I have mixed emotions. I don't want to give up Yorke, but also I realize I have to give up talent to get talent. And I don't think a pitcher who was acquired for Hembree and Workman seems like enough.

 

It's a tough call. If Forst insists on Yorke, I might turn to Detroit first and see what Duran can get me from them. Their CF situation (and OF in general) is atrocious. BTV gives Duran the same value as Casey Mize and more than Tarik Skubal. I have my (extremely serious) doubts they move Mize here, but I actually think Skubal might be in play.

[mvp 78]

It's a tough call. If Forst insists on Yorke, I might turn to Detroit first and see what Duran can get me from them. Their CF situation (and OF in general) is atrocious. BTV gives Duran the same value as Casey Mize and more than Tarik Skubal. I have my (extremely serious) doubts they move Mize here, but I actually think Skubal might be in play.

 

Sign me up for Mize or Skubal.

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with dealing any and all of those guys for a good return.

 

The guys I'd prefer to hold onto are Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Bello and Wilkelman Gonzalez. I'd have to be bowled over with an offer to move on those guys.

 

Agreed.

 

I might sub Jordan for Gonzalez, but it's close.

[moonslav59]

That also could be a possibility. Actually both starting Iggy and Arroyo huting himself on the bench are possible..

 

Iglesias hit well last year, but that was probably an aberration, given how the rest of his season went. He might be a better option than Yollmer Sanchez for the role. But both are basically Glove Men who will bat 9th. Arguing one over the other is tantamount to guessing.

 

I'm not signing Iggy for anything more than .675 on offense.

 

I'm more worried about his ability to play 145+ games.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Mata coming off TJ is going to carry the value he should carry. He won't even throw a pitch before August.

 

If you were GM of Oakland, would you deal Montas and Trivino for any of those packages, or try to get Yorke? That you have removed Yorke from the offer tells me the answer.

 

I have mixed emotions. I don't want to give up Yorke, but also I realize I have to give up talent to get talent. And I don't think a pitcher who was acquired for Hembree and Workman seems like enough.

 

It's a tough call. If Forst insists on Yorke, I might turn to Detroit first and see what Duran can get me from them. Their CF situation (and OF in general) is atrocious. BTV gives Duran the same value as Casey Mize and more than Tarik Skubal. I have my (extremely serious) doubts they move Mize here, but I actually think Skubal might be in play.

 

I don't know how much other GMs value Downs or Groome/Seabold or even Ward & Jimenez.

 

Would OAK do Duran, Seabold and Groome for the two?

 

Duran, Downs and one of Seabold/Groome?

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I might sub Jordan for Gonzalez, but it's close.

 

Blaze is very interesting and I did give second thoughts to including him on my list. I just think his profile (corner IF, power first) isn't that hard to come by through other means. I think Mayer could be a generational overall talent. I think Yorke could have a generational hit tool. Casas is on the cusp of making the team and providing everyday AB's at an important position that has been kind of a hole for the past few years.

[mvp 78]

I'm not signing Iggy for anything more than .675 on offense.

 

I'm more worried about his ability to play 145+ games.

 

I think 700 OPS is very reasonable for him. I don't think the Sox would expect him to play more than 100 games.

[moonslav59]

I think 700 OPS is very reasonable for him. I don't think the Sox would expect him to play more than 100 games.

 

.700 is reasonable, but .675 would not force him to be DFA'd or used much less.

 

I expect he might start 100-120 games, at most, but come in for D in more.

[moonslav59]

Blaze is very interesting and I did give second thoughts to including him on my list. I just think his profile (corner IF, power first) isn't that hard to come by through other means. I think Mayer could be a generational overall talent. I think Yorke could have a generational hit tool. Casas is on the cusp of making the team and providing everyday AB's at an important position that has been kind of a hole for the past few years.

 

I'm not saying replace mayer or Casas with Jordan. He's clearly a step or three below, but I was comparing him more to Gonzalez on your list.

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying replace mayer or Casas with Jordan. He's clearly a step or three below, but I was comparing him more to Gonzalez on your list.

 

I wasn't saying it was Blaze or Casas, just that there were specific reasons I put the offensive players on the list. The pitchers are put on there because the Sox usually have a lack of pitching prospects. Blaze is probably better than Wilkelman, but I think the Sox have a greater need for Wilkelman.

[moonslav59]

I wasn't saying it was Blaze or Casas, just that there were specific reasons I put the offensive players on the list. The pitchers are put on there because the Sox usually have a lack of pitching prospects. Blaze is probably better than Wilkelman, but I think the Sox have a greater need for Wilkelman.

 

Ok, that makes sense.

 

Trading promising pitchers should be avoided more than everyday players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This was further shown by the fact that by the time the season ended, people were impressed with Chris Mazza...

 

I'm still impressed with how far his pitch went that hit the bat of Ronald Acuna.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The way the Astros won the other night -- scoring 9 runs on 0 homers -- is good for baseball. The Braves might still win it all on just two strengths: home run hitters and a killer bullpen. The all-or-nothing Red Sox were two wins away from the World Series with just one of those assets... in the ALCS, Boston scored 82% of its total runs on 11 HRs (23 of 28 runs).

 

Situational hitting with runners in scoring position -- putting the ball in play beyond weak pop-ups on pitches sluggers just miss -- is a Red Sox' weakness. Adding a few inexpensive guys to the roster who consistently make contact is a start at improving.

 

Moon's non-tender list includes some cheap bench options who are among the best contact hitters in the sport. Willians Astudillo had the best AB/SO in the bigs at 17.3, while Pirate shortstop Kevin Newman's 12.6 led the MLB for qualified full-timers. Hanser Alberto 9.2 was also tough to strike out. Newman (career K-rate 10.9%) is an NL Gold Glove finalist this year, while Alberto (11.7%) has a positive DWAR in parts of six seasons. Astudillo plays infield corners and can be a third catcher; in 533 career Plate Appearances he has 25 Ks (4.7%)!

 

Both Astudillo and Newman were paid around major league minimum, while Alberto earned $1.65 million. I like Jose Iglesias, but he makes more than all three of these guys combined. And as we know, every million saved is more we can spend on pitching...

[moonslav59]

The way the Astros won the other night -- scoring 9 runs on 0 homers -- is good for baseball. The Braves might still win it all on just two strengths: home run hitters and a killer bullpen. The all-or-nothing Red Sox were two wins away from the World Series with just one of those assets... in the ALCS, Boston scored 82% of its total runs on 11 HRs (23 of 28 runs).

 

Situational hitting with runners in scoring position -- putting the ball in play beyond weak pop-ups on pitches sluggers just miss -- is a Red Sox' weakness. Adding a few inexpensive guys to the roster who consistently make contact is a start at improving.

 

Moon's non-tender list includes some cheap bench options who are among the best contact hitters in the sport. Willians Astudillo had the best AB/SO in the bigs at 17.3, while Pirate shortstop Kevin Newman's 12.6 led the MLB for qualified full-timers. Hanser Alberto 9.2 was also tough to strike out. Newman (career K-rate 10.9%) is an NL Gold Glove finalist this year, while Alberto (11.7%) has a positive DWAR in parts of six seasons. Astudillo plays infield corners and can be a third catcher; in 533 career Plate Appearances he has 25 Ks (4.7%)!

 

Both Astudillo and Newman were paid around major league minimum, while Alberto earned $1.65 million. I like Jose Iglesias, but he makes more than all three of these guys combined. And as we know, every million saved is more we can spend on pitching...

 

We don't know if these guys will be non-tendered, but you bring up some interesting facts about some of them.

 

Thanks.

 

We don't know what Iggy will cost ($5M/2?) and sometimes non-tendered players make more than that (like Renfroe's $3.1M).

[notin]

Blaze is very interesting and I did give second thoughts to including him on my list. I just think his profile (corner IF, power first) isn't that hard to come by through other means. I think Mayer could be a generational overall talent. I think Yorke could have a generational hit tool. Casas is on the cusp of making the team and providing everyday AB's at an important position that has been kind of a hole for the past few years.

 

If the Sox do plan on making a trade for anyone who is any good, they can't make all the prospects with potential off limits.

 

Certainly we don't want Bloom to empty the farm of talent, but he is going to have to part with something of actual value...