A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

If the Sox do plan on making a trade for anyone who is any good, they can't make all the prospects with potential off limits.

 

Certainly we don't want Bloom to empty the farm of talent, but he is going to have to part with something of actual value...

 

He did say he was okay with trading Duran, Mata, Groome and Winckowski.

[notin]

He did say he was okay with trading Duran, Mata, Groome and Winckowski.

 

How much value and potential do they have?

 

Duran has some value, although how much is in question. Mata is a bigger question mark right now, since he is not going to pitch for several months. Groome is finally showing something. Winckowski was traded a year ago as one of several players who only netted Andrew Benintendi in return. I don't expect his value has catapulted that much in the last 10 months.

 

Basically, after Duran, these are a bunch of question marks. At the deadline last July, teams were dealing ranked pitching prospects for half year to one and a half years of control. Are any of thee players part of any competitive offer? If I can foresee a fire sale in Oakland, it's a safe bet every pitching-starved GM with even a moderate budget also can. And the ones who can't will be getting told about by Dave Forst himself. Is Duran, Groome and Winckowski really a competitive offer?

[mvp 78]

He did say he was okay with trading Duran, Mata, Groome and Winckowski.

 

Right.

[moonslav59]

How much value and potential do they have?

 

Duran has some value, although how much is in question. Mata is a bigger question mark right now, since he is not going to pitch for several months. Groome is finally showing something. Winckowski was traded a year ago as one of several players who only netted Andrew Benintendi in return. I don't expect his value has catapulted that much in the last 10 months.

 

Basically, after Duran, these are a bunch of question marks. At the deadline last July, teams were dealing ranked pitching prospects for half year to one and a half years of control. Are any of thee players part of any competitive offer? If I can foresee a fire sale in Oakland, it's a safe bet every pitching-starved GM with even a moderate budget also can. And the ones who can't will be getting told about by Dave Forst himself. Is Duran, Groome and Winckowski really a competitive offer?

 

Well, if you go by BTV, Duran and Downs have enough value to bring back something pretty nice. Add Groome and even better.

 

I'm open to trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

A lot has to do with years of team control.

 

Getting a player with 4 or 5 years of control, I'm much more likely to trade a top prospect for a better known player.

[moonslav59]

I'm probably higher on Dalbec than many, here, so I'd be open to trading Casas for a big return.

 

I'd like to keep Mayer, Bello and Yorke, but I'd listen to any offers.

[mvp 78]

If the Sox do plan on making a trade for anyone who is any good, they can't make all the prospects with potential off limits.

 

Certainly we don't want Bloom to empty the farm of talent, but he is going to have to part with something of actual value...

 

From my original post about this:

 

I'm fine with dealing any and all of those guys for a good return.

 

The guys I'd prefer to hold onto are Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Bello and Wilkelman Gonzalez. I'd have to be bowled over with an offer to move on those guys.

 

If someone has 2016 Chris Sale sitting in a box somewhere, I'd be willing to open up the farm for him.

[mvp 78]

I'm probably higher on Dalbec than many, here, so I'd be open to trading Casas for a big return.

 

I'd like to keep Mayer, Bello and Yorke, but I'd listen to any offers.

 

I think Mayer and Yorke are the most untouchable IMO. I would listen on offers for Casas, but my preference is to keep him. Sure, you can fill 1b with a high priced FA, but to have a cheap guy there for 5-6 years really helps the budget.

[moonslav59]

I think Mayer and Yorke are the most untouchable IMO. I would listen on offers for Casas, but my preference is to keep him. Sure, you can fill 1b with a high priced FA, but to have a cheap guy there for 5-6 years really helps the budget.

 

That's why getting back someone with 3-5 years of team control helps the equation.

 

If Sale had one year left, no way I make that trade.

[mvp 78]

That's why getting back someone with 3-5 years of team control helps the equation.

 

If Sale had one year left, no way I make that trade.

 

Yes.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm open to trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

I propose we stipulate as a stone cold fact that everyone here would trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

That way it doesn't ever need to be said again.

[mvp 78]

I propose we stipulate as a stone cold fact that everyone here would trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

That way it doesn't ever need to be said again.

 

Mayer for Vlad Jr

[jad]

I propose we stipulate as a stone cold fact that everyone here would trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

That way it doesn't ever need to be said again.

 

Ha ha. Not me. If I have a favorite player, I don't want them traded, even if the return is 'better' (well, I might have been ok with trading Daniel Nava for Trout a few years back, but only just!) I watch sports for entertainment, not for a living, and not because I feel better about myself and life generally if 'my' team wins.

[oldtimer]

Our prospect top 25 who are projected as ML ready in 2021/2022 consists of 12 players. They are:

 

Casas 1st base

Duran OF

Downs SS/2nd

Cannon SS/2nd

 

Hernandez C

Wong C

 

Bello P

Groome P

Murphy P

Seabold P

Wincowski P

Crawford P

 

Which of these, if any, will make the active roster and which will make the 40 man? We have only 1 first base candidate and one OF candidate. We also have 2 SS/2nd base candidates but one with a higher rating.

 

Then there are 2 catchers with one of those being at least considered.

 

With 7 pitchers, probably 5 of those stand a chance during thee year.

 

Right now, we have weak spots at 2nd base, first base, OF and Catcher and of course pitching. We have potential players for all of those positions on our prospect list. Also if we wish to chase an exceptional talent, such as Semien, a player like Downs might be sacrificed. That would come at a high cost but might be worth the plunge. I wonder how Bloom feels?

[moonslav59]

I propose we stipulate as a stone cold fact that everyone here would trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

That way it doesn't ever need to be said again.

 

It does to people who say, I would never trade Casas.

[moonslav59]

Our prospect top 25 who are projected as ML ready in 2021/2022 consists of 12 players. They are:

 

Casas 1st base

Duran OF

Downs SS/2nd

Cannon SS/2nd

 

Hernandez C

Wong C

 

Bello P

Groome P

Murphy P

Seabold P

Wincowski P

Crawford P

 

Which of these, if any, will make the active roster and which will make the 40 man? We have only 1 first base candidate and one OF candidate. We also have 2 SS/2nd base candidates but one with a higher rating.

 

Then there are 2 catchers with one of those being at least considered.

 

With 7 pitchers, probably 5 of those stand a chance during thee year.

 

Right now, we have weak spots at 2nd base, first base, OF and Catcher and of course pitching. We have potential players for all of those positions on our prospect list. Also if we wish to chase an exceptional talent, such as Semien, a player like Downs might be sacrificed. That would come at a high cost but might be worth the plunge. I wonder how Bloom feels?

 

Cannon will not be added to the 40. Casas does not need to be added, so they will hold off on adding him, until he is needed.

 

I'm not sure Bello or Murphy see MLB in 2022.

 

All the rest very well might.

[notin]

I propose we stipulate as a stone cold fact that everyone here would trade anyone, if the return is better.

 

That way it doesn't ever need to be said again.

 

I try to provide names or list of names as targets, which hopefully then negates a need for these type of blanket statements…

[oldtimer]

The Braves experienced tough player losses during the year and not much was expected of them. They made acquisitions that were smart and that propelled them to win the WS. Carlos Correa was on the losing team. Before we empty the bank for any player, we should examine the Braves approach.

[Bellhorn04]

The Braves experienced tough player losses during the year and not much was expected of them. They made acquisitions that were smart and that propelled them to win the WS. Carlos Correa was on the losing team. Before we empty the bank for any player, we should examine the Braves approach.

 

All due respect to the Braves for winning it all, but let's not forget how much they benefited from playing in the pitiful NL East.

 

The Braves won 88 games.

 

4 teams in the AL East won more games than that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Braves experienced tough player losses during the year and not much was expected of them. They made acquisitions that were smart and that propelled them to win the WS. Carlos Correa was on the losing team. Before we empty the bank for any player, we should examine the Braves approach.

 

Atlanta lost its ace starter and top player for the season, but hit the jackpot mid-season by adding four outfielders who hit enough home runs to win rings. The Braves scored 72% of their runs vs. the Astros on dingers; the Red Sox scored 82% of their runs in the ALCS on HRs. The difference between who beat Houston and who lost to Houston was pitching. Atlanta has two very good young starters who threw shutouts and a very good bullpen; Boston's relievers blew two games.

Edited November 3, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

Atlanta lost its ace starter and top player for the season, but hit the jackpot mid-season by adding four outfielders who hit enough home runs to win rings. The Braves scored 72% of their runs vs. the Astros on dingers; the Red Sox scored 82% of their runs in the ALCS on HRs. The difference between who beat Houston and who lost to Houston was pitching. Atlanta has two very good young starters who threw shutouts and a very good bullpen; Boston's relievers blew two games.

 

The Braves approach was to develop young starters. They basically went all year long without their best one, but still had Anderson, Fried, and even Kyle Wright, who had one outstanding game for them. And they even dealt away another starter with potential in Bryse Wilson.

 

Every team tries this approach. Most fail. It's simply not as easy as saying "let's try the Braves approach" just because it worked this time. The Sox have not been doing this and have won 4 World Series in between the last two Braves' titles...

[moonslav59]

Every year, we hear how we need to emulate the team that just one it all, and the following year a different team wins using a whole different approach, and then we hear the same thing.

 

There are many ways to win in MLB.

 

Loading up on studs improves your chances, but nothing is ever guaranteed, except maybe 2018. (lol).

[notin]

Every year, we hear how we need to emulate the team that just one it all, and the following year a different team wins using a whole different approach, and then we hear the same thing.

 

There are many ways to win in MLB.

 

Loading up on studs improves your chances, but nothing is ever guaranteed, except maybe 2018. (lol).

 

If "loading up on studs" worked", the Yankees might be the ones planning a parade. The bottom line is there is no magic formula...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

All due respect to the Braves for winning it all, but let's not forget how much they benefited from playing in the pitiful NL East.

 

The Braves won 88 games.

 

4 teams in the AL East won more games than that.

 

In 2006 the Cards won it all after finishing the regular season at 83-79. It does appear to make the regular season insignificant. I guess it isn't always the best team that wins, but more importantly, it's the team that gets hot at the appropriate time.

Edited November 3, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

In 2006 the Cards won it all after finishing the regular season at 83-79. It does appear to make the regular season insignificant. I guess it isn't always the best team that wins, but more importantly, it's the team that gets hot at the appropriate time.

 

And that is the closest thing there is to a "magic formula" for winning the World Series...

[Bellhorn04]

The crapshoot factor was multiplied when they expanded to 3 divisions in each league.

[notin]

The crapshoot factor was multiplied when they expanded to 3 divisions in each league.

 

And added a second wild card team into the mix...

[Bellhorn04]

And added a second wild card team into the mix...

 

Yes, that was Phase 2 of the Crapshoot Enhancement Program.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Braves approach was to develop young starters. They basically went all year long without their best one, but still had Anderson, Fried, and even Kyle Wright, who had one outstanding game for them. And they even dealt away another starter with potential in Bryse Wilson.

 

Every team tries this approach. Most fail. It's simply not as easy as saying "let's try the Braves approach" just because it worked this time. The Sox have not been doing this and have won 4 World Series in between the last two Braves' titles...

 

It's not a blueprint for success, because nothing is in the crapshootingist postseason tourney in team sports.

 

If the Red Sox had the Braves' bullpen, they may have won four games in the ALCS before Houston did. But then they'd still have to face Atlanta's hot starters, who just shut down the best offense in baseball.

 

Another aspect that hasn't really been discussed this week is the Braves' mediocre defense, which really didn't look any better than Boston's. But Atlanta feasted off multiple bad starts from both Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia, each of whom threw games of their lives to win the pennant. The questions that need to be answered are 1) Did their clutch starts in the ALCS tax their arms to the point of ineffectiveness in the WS?... or 2) Were Red Sox' hitters really worse than the Braves'? I'm leaning towards Yes on #1 and No on #2.

[notin]

But the most important question of the off-season - what will JD Martinez do? - is now on the clock.

 

I think, in the absence of a new CBA, he would be unwise to opt out. But we shall see what Scott Boras advises him on. Boras does have a history of having these clauses put in primarily to exercise them if the player is still any good...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The only way to insure that only the best team from both leagues makes it to the WS is to have each league have one division of 15 teams. No wild cards, only the 1st place teams head to the WS. Of course that will never happen because fairness will never replace the money factor.

 

Btw, that was how it worked for a very long time long ago.

Edited November 3, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER