A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

Yeah, it's a lot of money for a unit that only produces 1 fWAR.

 

Plawecki is really the only non-tender candidate on the Sox, now that they have DFA'd Franchy Cordero and Yacksel Rios...

[moonslav59]

Here's my list of the players I'd not be to upset seeing them traded or even DFA'd- in order my preference (not Bloom/Cora):

 

Potts

Plawecki and/or Vaz

Arauz (assuming we add someone like Iggy)

Rosario

 

No DFA (trade only or keep)

Davis

DHern

Valdez

Bazardo

Sawamura

 

Other possible trade candidates (one reason provided):

Renfroe (Arb cost rather high)

Bogey (Opt out after 2022)

JD Martinez (May have just one year of control left, if no opt out)

 

 

[moonslav59]

We have 5 players on our 40 man roster who will be free agents, soon:

 

ERod (QO offer?)

Ottavino

Santana

Robles

T Shaw

(Iggy already released)

 

Options/Opt outs:

JD opt out (50-50?)

Schwarber (player option: to FA)

Richards (no)

Perez (no)

Vaz (likely Yes)

 

So, pretty sure these 7:

Ottavino

Schwarber

Richards

Perez

Robles

Santana

Shaw

 

Maybe close to 50-50

Vaz

JD

ERod

 

Maybe add six Rule 5 players:

Bello

Winckowski

Downs

Santos

Crawford

Feltman

(Jimenez/Ort/Cottam/Ward?)

[mvp 78]

Not necessarily, for more than one reason.

 

Definitely, for more than two reasons.

[Bellhorn04]

Definitely, for more than two reasons.

 

Your reliance on fWAR for catchers is almost as bad as moon's reliance on CERA.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR ARB Projections

 

Kevin Plawecki – $2.0MM (4th of 4)

Hunter Renfroe – $7.6MM (3rd of 4)

Ryan Brasier – $1.4MM (2nd of 3)

Rafael Devers – $11.1MM (2nd of 3)

Nick Pivetta – $3.2MM (1st of 3)

Alex Verdugo – $3.2MM (1st of 3)

Christian Arroyo – $1.1MM (1st of 3)

Josh Taylor – $1.1MM (1st of 4)

[moonslav59]

Your reliance on fWAR for catchers is almost as bad as moon's reliance on CERA.

 

Then, it can't be all that much.

[mvp 78]

Your reliance on fWAR for catchers is almost as bad as moon's reliance on CERA.

 

I've looked at the more advanced stats. Vaz is a top 20 defensive catcher. I don't think you lose too much if you put Wong in there. Not sure Vaz ever hit his defensive peak.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR ARB Projections

 

Kevin Plawecki – $2.0MM (4th of 4)

Hunter Renfroe – $7.6MM (3rd of 4)

Ryan Brasier – $1.4MM (2nd of 3)

Rafael Devers – $11.1MM (2nd of 3)

Nick Pivetta – $3.2MM (1st of 3)

Alex Verdugo – $3.2MM (1st of 3)

Christian Arroyo – $1.1MM (1st of 3)

Josh Taylor – $1.1MM (1st of 4)

 

All those arb amounts are fine with me.

[moonslav59]

All those arb amounts are fine with me.

 

Nothing jumps out at me.

 

I'm not sure if saving $1.2M on Wong over Plawecki gains us all that much.

 

Trading Renfroe ($7.6M) or Vaz ($7M option NOT arb) might make the most sense, if we are looking to clear some salary space- hopefully for bigger and better signings.

 

Of course, Bogey's $20M frees up the most, but it would be costly or more costly to fill his slot.

[mvp 78]

Nothing jumps out at me.

 

I'm not sure if saving $1.2M on Wong over Plawecki gains us all that much.

 

Trading Renfroe ($7.6M) or Vaz ($7M option NOT arb) might make the most sense, if we are looking to clear some salary space- hopefully for bigger and better signings.

 

Of course, Bogey's $20M frees up the most, but it would be costly or more costly to fill his slot.

 

The bigger decision is clearly thinking about Vaz and if you want to extend him or if you want to go in a different route for the next 3-4 years.

 

No clue what they will do about Xander.

[moonslav59]

I've looked at the more advanced stats. Vaz is a top 20 defensive catcher. I don't think you lose too much if you put Wong in there. Not sure Vaz ever hit his defensive peak.

 

Some mixed Numbers

 

Pitch Framing

+3 runs Pina (1466 pitches) Baseball Prospectus has him 39 (+3.5 runs)

+1 runs Plaweki (1168 pitches) B P (+2.7)

+0 runs Vazquez (3904 pitches) Baseball Prospectus has him first +6.1

 

Blocking Bad Pitches

+2.1 runs Vaz

+1.3 runs Pina

+1.3 runs Plawecki

 

Baseball Prospectus Total Runs above average

5.0 Pina

4.0 Vaz

2.9 Plawecki

 

fangraphs Def

9.8 Pina

7.2 Vaz

0.0 Plawecki

 

bWAR

1.3 Va0.7 Pina

-0.2 Plawecki

[moonslav59]

The bigger decision is clearly thinking about Vaz and if you want to extend him or if you want to go in a different route for the next 3-4 years.

 

No clue what they will do about Xander.

 

I know I've ragged on Vaz a lot, especially on how he handles our rotation, so I think everyone can figure out, I'm not for extending him.

 

I don't think he's worth $7M, either, but if Bloom & Cora do, I trust their numbers more than mine by a long shot.

 

I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with a Pina-Wong combo behind the plate for 2022, but we'd save enough to get a decent RP'er.

Edited November 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Nothing jumps out at me.

 

I'm not sure if saving $1.2M on Wong over Plawecki gains us all that much.

 

Trading Renfroe ($7.6M) or Vaz ($7M option NOT arb) might make the most sense, if we are looking to clear some salary space- hopefully for bigger and better signings.

 

Of course, Bogey's $20M frees up the most, but it would be costly or more costly to fill his slot.

 

Why NOT go BIG?

 

We bitch and moan about our Defense. Well that starts with our shortstop.

 

This is our best chance to upgrade SS defense along with offense that can match Xander's.

 

Pay a guy $30M....use Xander's $20M, Renfroe's expected $7M and look in the sofa for additional $3M.

 

Plethora of shortstops in free agency this winter. Nothing like present.

 

Better defense at shortstop, better defense in right field. Case closed. Move on from there.

 

8 f***ing games behind Tampa. Have we done anything to close the GAP? That will be my question every single day this winter.

[moonslav59]

Why NOT go BIG?

 

We bitch and moan about our Defense. Well that starts with our shortstop.

 

This is our best chance to upgrade SS defense along with offense that can match Xander's.

 

Pay a guy $30M....use Xander's $20M, Renfroe's expected $7M and look in the sofa for additional $3M.

 

Plethora of shortstops in free agency this winter. Nothing like present.

 

Better defense at shortstop, better defense in right field. Case closed. Move on from there.

 

8 f***ing games behind Tampa. Have we done anything to close the GAP? That will be my question every single day this winter.

 

We did nothing major, last winter and closed the gap immensely***.

 

I'm fine with doing something major, including a Bogey trade.

 

I'm not sure how having so many great SSs on the FA market makes this "nothing like the present" for trading Bogey, but yes, replacing him has many options, even if the same or more costly. The problem might be why trade anything real good for Bogey, when you can just buy a SS?

 

 

*** We finished 16 GB, last season in a 60 game season. That would prorate to over 44 GB over 162 games.

Edited November 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

We did nothing major, last winter and closed the gap immensely***.

 

I'm fine with doing something major, including a Bogey trade.

 

I'm not sure how having so many great SSs on the FA market makes this "nothing like the present" for trading Bogey, but yes, replacing him has many options, even if the same or more costly. The problem might be why trade anything real good for Bogey, when you can just buy a SS?

 

 

*** We finished 16 GB, last season in a 60 game season. That would prorate to over 44 GB over 162 games.

 

Once again don’t compare the 2020 season with anything. I know it makes last season look all the better. I don’t see the Red Sox trading Bogey, or signing any $30 million players this off season either.

[moonslav59]

Once again don’t compare the 2020 season with anything. I know it makes last season look all the better. I don’t see the Red Sox trading Bogey, or signing any $30 million players this off season either.

 

I was responding to Nick's point about needing to go large to make up 8 games.

 

I thought some context was needed.

 

I'm fine with going large, and my point about this winter has been mostly based on us being able to spend about the same amount we spent last year on 10 players, but doing it on 4-5, this winter. That should be close to enough to make up 8 games, assuming TB does not improve, too.

[notin]

We did nothing major, last winter.

 

They did stop using Ryan Weber as the #3 starter…

[notin]

Why NOT go BIG?

 

We bitch and moan about our Defense. Well that starts with our shortstop.

 

This is our best chance to upgrade SS defense along with offense that can match Xander's.

 

Pay a guy $30M....use Xander's $20M, Renfroe's expected $7M and look in the sofa for additional $3M.

 

Plethora of shortstops in free agency this winter. Nothing like present.

 

Better defense at shortstop, better defense in right field. Case closed. Move on from there.

 

8 f***ing games behind Tampa. Have we done anything to close the GAP? That will be my question every single day this winter.

 

So replacing Xander AND Renfroe with Correa (and no one?) will make 8 games?

 

Maybe I shouldn’t be the one you fired

[moonslav59]

They did stop using Ryan Weber as the #3 starter…

 

That was their biggest move- signing Richards.

 

That was a huge gain... lol.

[Nick]

So replacing Xander AND Renfroe with Correa (and no one?) will make 8 games?

 

Maybe I shouldn’t be the one you fired

 

You can't fire the owner. You're the GM.

 

Can you tell me WHY 2023 will be better year to 'go for it' than 2022? It's a serious question.

 

Give me some specifics. Don't be philosophical. Give me the details.

 

Don't be an ass. Of course trading Xander is first of many moves I'd make.

[moonslav59]

You can't fire the owner. You're the GM.

 

Can you tell me WHY 2023 will be better year to 'go for it' than 2022? It's a serious question.

 

Give me some specifics. Don't be philosophical. Give me the details.

 

Don't be an ass. Of course trading Xander is first of many moves I'd make.

 

I think 2022 is probably a better chance but we do lose a bunch of salary after 2022. No Price, JD, Eovaldi, Vaz, and Bogey.

Now, some of those guys are important pieces to a winning team, but the combined money can bring a lot of talent.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think JD is gone, TBTH.

[moonslav59]

I think JD is gone, TBTH.

 

For a long time I thought no. But now I’m thinking chances are he bolts.

[mvp 78]

Why NOT go BIG?

 

We bitch and moan about our Defense. Well that starts with our shortstop.

 

This is our best chance to upgrade SS defense along with offense that can match Xander's.

 

Pay a guy $30M....use Xander's $20M, Renfroe's expected $7M and look in the sofa for additional $3M.

 

Plethora of shortstops in free agency this winter. Nothing like present.

 

Better defense at shortstop, better defense in right field. Case closed. Move on from there.

 

8 f***ing games behind Tampa. Have we done anything to close the GAP? That will be my question every single day this winter.

 

Sox went 8-11 against the Rays last year. That accounts for 6 of those games back. Finding 2 other games in your schedule shouldn't be that hard to do. Plus, I don't think we can automatically plug the Rays in for another 100 win season.

[mvp 78]

I think JD is gone, TBTH.

 

I've leaned that way for a while. I think I said it was 60/40. There's a decent chance he stays, but it's more likely he's gone (which I'm actually ok with). I don't see the need for this version of the Sox to spend big money on a DH.

[mvp 78]

That was their biggest move- signing Richards.

 

That was a huge gain... lol.

 

No, it was not having a black hole at 2b, having a CF that could actually hit, having a 1b that could actually hit, JD regaining his swing, ERod coming back healthy, Sale providing a decent 1/2 year, getting 30 GS out of Pivetta, the additions of Ottavino/Sawamura and a full season of Taylor in the pen.

 

The 2020 Sox were 29th in starter IP and dead last in WHIP (top 4 starters were Perez, Eovaldi, Mazza and Godley). For relief, the 2020 Sox were 28th in WHiP and dead last in runs given up. Just getting mediocre pitching results really turned the team around.

 

The 2020 Sox were just a dreadful squad. Embarrassing.

[notin]

No, it was not having a black hole at 2b, having a CF that could actually hit, having a 1b that could actually hit, JD regaining his swing, ERod coming back healthy, Sale providing a decent 1/2 year, getting 30 GS out of Pivetta, the additions of Ottavino/Sawamura and a full season of Taylor in the pen.

 

The 2020 Sox were 29th in starter IP and dead last in WHIP (top 4 starters were Perez, Eovaldi, Mazza and Godley). For relief, the 2020 Sox were 28th in WHiP and dead last in runs given up. Just getting mediocre pitching results really turned the team around.

 

The 2020 Sox were just a dreadful squad. Embarrassing.

 

This was further shown by the fact that by the time the season ended, people were impressed with Chris Mazza...

[mvp 78]

This was further shown by the fact that by the time the season ended, people were impressed with Chris Mazza...

 

I just liked his socks.

[notin]

You can't fire the owner. You're the GM.

 

Can you tell me WHY 2023 will be better year to 'go for it' than 2022? It's a serious question.

 

Give me some specifics. Don't be philosophical. Give me the details.

 

Don't be an ass. Of course trading Xander is first of many moves I'd make.

 

Screw 2023. The time is 2022. I would not worry about making up 8 games, as that is an impossible target, given that Tampa is also going to make offseason moves out of my control.

 

First off, I keep Bogaerts. In fact, I try to extend him. I ignore the SS free agent market, because Lindor signed an extension all of them will be benchmarking. It's a waste of resources.

 

In free agency, the focus should be on RP and 2B and Kyle Schwarber. If JD opts out, he might be added to this list. If he does not, I will worry about where Schwarber plays later. My irst thought was Chris Taylor for 2B, but some points about his weaknesses have been made. One intriguing free agent is Eduardo Escobar, whose defensive metrics at 2B are actually fairly good, but are also in limited action. If the focus is straight up defense, metrics say the best options are Joe Panik and Yollmer Sanchez. Another option worth exploring might be a trad with San Diego for Adam Frazier (since the Padres still need to find a place for CJ Abrams to play). Frazier might make about $6mill or so next season, but can hit and field pretty well and has just the solitary season of control left. His BTV trade value of $0.8mill makes him available for a lot of individual Sox prospects, and the best fit might be Durban Feltman ($0.5mill).

 

Keep both Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen. I like the idea of making as many games as possible 6 innings long for the opposing team. Support them with Taylor, Barnes, Braiser, Valdez, Davis and (if he is not traded) Darwinzon Hernandez

 

I try to upgrade the starting pitching via trade with my first call being Oakland and using Jarren Duran as the centerpiece of my trade package. All other prospects are in play except Casas and Mayer. Montas is my top target, but I have my doubts. I also want to acquire their arb-eligible closer Lou Trivino. If Oakland is not amenable, I turn to Detroit, who has lots of young pitching and no young hitting. ERod gets a QO. And extension talks, if he refuses it. Along with Sale, Pivetta, and Eovaldi and whoever comes via trade,

 

And then I attack the pitching depth with lots and lots of MiLB deals...