A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

I think the worst chain pizza I've ever had was Cici's.

 

I think I'd rate Domino's and Papa John's ahead of Pizza Hut.

 

I would say the worst is Pizza Hut, just because their abominable product development team once put hot dogs in the crust. If the US is going to continue to use the death penalty, it absolutely needs to be applied right there.

 

I have never had Cici's, despite there being one of those dumps just two blocks from my house...

[moonslav59]

I would say the worst is Pizza Hut, just because their abominable product development team once put hot dogs in the crust. If the US is going to continue to use the death penalty, it absolutely needs to be applied right there.

 

I have never had Cici's, despite there being one of those dumps just two blocks from my house...

 

CiCi's is the worst of any.

 

Trust me.

[notin]

CiCi's is the worst of any.

 

Trust me.

 

The one thing I do appreciate about Little Caesar's is the price. At least they are not pretending they have quality stuff and are charging accordingly. They should drop the "Pan pan" crap and change their slogan to "It's $5. What did you expect?"

[moonslav59]

Do I value them? I find them very interesting. And I'm not so much looking at the differences between Vaz and Plaw as I am looking at how crazy good the numbers were with Vaz.

 

I'm certainly not denying the premise that some pitchers do better with some catchers. Obviously managers pay attention to it.

 

The Houck differential is not that great.

 

(He's at .510 with Vaz- career!)

 

These sample sizes are much larger (most large with 2 or more catchers) and just as stunning:

 

EOvaldi:

CERA/OPS

4.60/.781 Vaz (155 IP)

4.85/.748 Salty (124)

2.95/640 Plawecki (110)

 

Sale:

4.12/.759 Vaz 127 IP

2.79/.578 Leon 436 IP (granted- pre- TJS)

2.51/.622 AJ P 226 IP (pre TJS)

 

ERod

4.18/.725 Vaz 614IP

4.05/.700 Leon 118 IP

3.78/.778 Hanigan 50

 

Price

4.27/.738 Vaz 360 IP

2.96/.647 Leon 204 IP

 

Porcello

4.96/794 Vaz 211 IP

4.19/.728 Leon 576 IP

 

Those are the 5 biggest IP guys on the Sox since Vaz was our catcher.

 

I think the fact that RP'ers are more even has to do with little chance to build lasting comfort levels.

[moonslav59]

The one thing I do appreciate about Little Caesar's is the price. At least they are not pretending they have quality stuff and are charging accordingly. They should drop the "Pan pan" crap and change their slogan to "It's $5. What did you expect?"

 

CiCi's is all you can eat- but you can't eat more than a bite.

 

Worst crust.

Worst sauce.

Same cheese.

[Bellhorn04]

The Houck differential is not that great.

 

(He's at .510 with Vaz- career!)

 

These sample sizes are much larger (most large with 2 or more catchers) and just as stunning:

 

EOvaldi:

CERA/OPS

4.60/.781 Vaz (155 IP)

4.85/.748 Salty (124)

2.95/640 Plawecki (110)

 

Sale:

4.12/.759 Vaz 127 IP

2.79/.578 Leon 436 IP (granted- pre- TJS)

2.51/.622 AJ P 226 IP (pre TJS)

 

ERod

4.18/.725 Vaz 614IP

4.05/.700 Leon 118 IP

3.78/.778 Hanigan 50

 

Price

4.27/.738 Vaz 360 IP

2.96/.647 Leon 204 IP

 

Porcello

4.96/794 Vaz 211 IP

4.19/.728 Leon 576 IP

 

Those are the 5 biggest IP guys on the Sox since Vaz was our catcher.

 

I think the fact that RP'ers are more even has to do with little chance to build lasting comfort levels.

 

Sorry man, you totally confound me on this issue.

 

First you say the difference with Houck is not that great.

 

Then you list differences that are smaller.

[moonslav59]

Sorry man, you totally confound me on this issue.

 

First you say the difference with Houck is not that great.

 

Then you list differences that are smaller.

 

Yes, the Houck sample is 180 points. My bad.

 

The IP'd are smaller, but that was not the point I made.

 

I do think keeping Vaz over a couple 30 IP sample sizes is not reason enough, but if the powers in charge think Vaz is worth more than $7M, then I trust them to be right.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, the Houck sample is 180 points. My bad.

 

The IP'd are smaller, but that was not the point I made.

 

I do think keeping Vaz over a couple 30 IP sample sizes is not reason enough, but if the powers in charge think Vaz is worth more than $7M, then I trust them to be right.

 

It's not just the 30 IP sample sizes.

 

It's the fact that our pitching was so good this year when factoring in the high BAbip, as you have noted.

[moonslav59]

It's not just the 30 IP sample sizes.

 

It's the fact that our pitching was so good this year when factoring in the high BAbip, as you have noted.

 

That's one reason I never advocated for benching Vaz or even significantly reducing his playing time. I also know Vaz has many plusses, and that the CERA-related aspects are just one of many areas to place value on catchers.

 

I still saw some of our high IP pitchers do much better with someone not named Vaz. (3 out of 4 with 90+ PAs each and 3 out of 3 with 75+ PAs) I just think that should be a factor that is looked at when deciding who starts.

 

I'm not arguing it should be the biggest factor, or that I know more than Bloom and Cora.

 

I think it is a significant factor. MVP and many others do not. We are not sure how much, if any, of a factor it is with GMs and managers. I happen to think it probably is with Houston and Maldanado, but I don't know for sure. The only one acting like they know for sure is MVP. Why not question his firm position?

 

I have said I don't know for sure.

 

The problem with 2021 is that hardly any sample sizes have 100+ PAs with both catchers, so it's hard to argue anything. ERod never had Plawecki catch him and Perez, the one guy Vaz did better with had just 75 PAs with Plawecki.

 

This is one reason, I was not firmly behind Plawecki being the clear choice to catch more often.

 

2021 ONLY (all pitchers with 80+ PAs)

 

OPS Against (IP)

Vaz/ Plawecki

.766 (675)/ n/a ERod

.766 (282)/ .644 (401)Eovaldi

.771 (462)/ .639 (199) Pivetta

.783 (434)/ 1.163 (75) Perez

.854 (523)/ .699 (94) Richards

Edited October 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

2021 ONLY (all pitchers with 80+ IP)

 

OPS Against (IP)

Vaz/ Plawecki

.766 (675)/ n/a ERod

.766 (282)/ .644 (401)Eovaldi

.771 (462)/ .639 (199) Pivetta

.783 (434)/ 1.163 (75) Perez

.854 (523)/ .699 (94) Richards

 

IP stands for Innings Pitched???

[moonslav59]

IP stands for Innings Pitched???

 

No, PAs. My bad, eagle eye.

[moonslav59]

I'm not a big John Tomase and Justin Leger fan, but here are who they think Bloom should target, this winter:

 

Tomase thinks a SS (2B) is the #1 target.

 

Leger gives his top 10:

1. SS/2B Semien

2. SP R Ray/3. Stroman/ 7. Gausman

4. RP Graveman/ 5. B Hand/ 6. R Iglesias

8. Other S Marte OF/ 9. Bryant 3B/OF/ 10. C Taylor Utility

[oldtimer]

I'm not a big John Tomase and Justin Leger fan, but here are who they think Bloom should target, this winter:

 

Tomase thinks a SS (2B) is the #1 target.

 

Leger gives his top 10:

1. SS/2B Semien

2. SP R Ray/3. Stroman/ 7. Gausman

4. RP Graveman/ 5. B Hand/ 6. R Iglesias

8. Other S Marte OF/ 9. Bryant 3B/OF/ 10. C Taylor Utility

 

Soon after the WS conclusion, we will know about JDM. That is one of the keys to start the ball rolling. The status of the CBD may also slow the front offices who will not want to make major commitments if there is to be a work stoppage.

[moonslav59]

Soon after the WS conclusion, we will know about JDM. That is one of the keys to start the ball rolling. The status of the CBD may also slow the front offices who will not want to make major commitments if there is to be a work stoppage.

 

To me, the JD decision is not that big of a deal. If he stays we have a top DH, next year. If he doesn't we'll probably bring back Schwarber. I don't see much difference for 2022. Beyond, yes, but not much for 2022- money and talent wise.

 

The biggest choice I see is a 2 part one:

1) Offer a QO to ERod?

2) Does he accept or decline?

 

One could argue the same thing here: if we lose him, we'll have the $18M to spend on other pitchers. If he stays, he may eat close to half our winter spending budget.

[a700hitter]

CiCi's is all you can eat- but you can't eat more than a bite.

 

Worst crust.

Worst sauce.

Same cheese.

i have heard about Cici’s but never tried it. The reviews of them are all the same— awful. The worst I have had was a place called Zesty’s. Pizza has to be really bad of I throw it out. But I am spoiled being from Brooklyn, NY:

[notin]

PETA wants MLB to get rid of the term bullpen and change it to arm barn. Just when you think these people can't get any dumber, they come up with this. LOL! Who will the Sox have in their arm barn next season?

 

[oldtimer]

To me, the JD decision is not that big of a deal. If he stays we have a top DH, next year. If he doesn't we'll probably bring back Schwarber. I don't see much difference for 2022. Beyond, yes, but not much for 2022- money and talent wise.

 

The biggest choice I see is a 2 part one:

1) Offer a QO to ERod?

2) Does he accept or decline?

 

One could argue the same thing here: if we lose him, we'll have the $18M to spend on other pitchers. If he stays, he may eat close to half our winter spending budget.

 

 

By thinking of the jdm decision as a key to start the ball rolling, I mean it will come early and clarify whether we stay with him or go after Schwaber. I don't expect jdm to be tradable and don't see us trying to carry both players, as that money could be best used elsewhere.

 

I think the Collective Bargaining Agreement will go through many ups and downs with a work stoppage a real possibility. The players want to have a strong FA market while the owners want to expand their take. The uncertainty of the CBA would in my mind reduce the front office incentive to go after expensive FA's who then might not play a full season in 2022. I see it as more of a wet blanket of trades and FA until a settlement is reached.

 

All businesses try to increase their profits year to year as stockholders invest with the thought of getting a reasonable ROI. I don't know of other businesses in which workers can expect to have long term contracts at such absurd salaries.

[Bellhorn04]

All businesses try to increase their profits year to year as stockholders invest with the thought of getting a reasonable ROI. I don't know of other businesses in which workers can expect to have long term contracts at such absurd salaries.

 

You can't really compare pro athletes to regular workers. Most pro athletes have short careers. And only a small percentage get those absurd contracts you're talking about.

 

And it's the owners who voluntarily sign them to those contracts. They sign them because they think the player will make the team win more games and attract more fans and generate more revenue.

[notin]

You can't really compare pro athletes to regular workers. Most pro athletes have short careers. And only a small percentage get those absurd contracts you're talking about.

 

And it's the owners who voluntarily sign them to those contracts. They sign them because they think the player will make the team win more games and attract more fans and generate more revenue.

 

Not to mention, the owners are clearly getting their ROI.

 

My biggest gripe with the Players Union is that they ignore all the minor leaguers- you know, the players who actually do need the protection.

[Nick]

The uncertainty of the CBA would in my mind reduce the front office incentive to go after expensive FA's who then might not play a full season in 2022.

 

If they don't play full season, I doubt players would be compensated for entire year.

 

Now there may be negative impact which may lead to lower interest, lower revenue when the game returns if the players are locked out.

[Bellhorn04]

The uncertainty of the CBA would in my mind reduce the front office incentive to go after expensive FA's who then might not play a full season in 2022.

 

If they don't play full season, I doubt players would be compensated for entire year.

 

Now there may be negative impact which may lead to lower interest, lower revenue when the game returns if the players are locked out.

 

If we lose part of the 2022 season, fans are going to be furious. They just went through a 60 game season in 2020.

 

Not that fans being furious will affect anything...

[moonslav59]

By thinking of the jdm decision as a key to start the ball rolling, I mean it will come early and clarify whether we stay with him or go after Schwaber. I don't expect jdm to be tradable and don't see us trying to carry both players, as that money could be best used elsewhere.

 

I think the Collective Bargaining Agreement will go through many ups and downs with a work stoppage a real possibility. The players want to have a strong FA market while the owners want to expand their take. The uncertainty of the CBA would in my mind reduce the front office incentive to go after expensive FA's who then might not play a full season in 2022. I see it as more of a wet blanket of trades and FA until a settlement is reached.

 

All businesses try to increase their profits year to year as stockholders invest with the thought of getting a reasonable ROI. I don't know of other businesses in which workers can expect to have long term contracts at such absurd salaries.

 

I don't think the Sox see this market as one to go large and long in. I think the plan is to go a little higher with contracts than last year- maybe more than just two 2 year deals (Kike & Sawamura) and about the same amount of money but for about half the players. Of course, I could be wrong.

 

If this is the plan, then a work stoppage may not bother us, too much.

 

I also think we look into a trade and Devers extension. We may look to trade Dalbec or Casas, and if we sign Schwarber, it makes even more sense.

 

I'm not sure JD is untradeable. Many teams are not afraid of big one year deals, and if we offered to pay some money or add on a prospect like the Yanks did with Ottavino, maybe we could find a taker. Note: I am not for trading JD, unless and until we have Schwarber signed.

 

To me, the biggest issue to be resolved before the signings begin is ERod.

[moonslav59]

Not to mention, the owners are clearly getting their ROI.

 

My biggest gripe with the Players Union is that they ignore all the minor leaguers- you know, the players who actually do need the protection.

 

That and they don't really push as hard as I think they should for raising the min wage- like doubling it, at least. That's where a lot of players sit for several years, and some never get the golden ticket.

[moonslav59]

If we lose part of the 2022 season, fans are going to be furious. They just went through a 60 game season in 2020.

 

Not that fans being furious will affect anything...

 

In today's climate- with the economy still shaky, the future so unknown and so many alternative entertainment opportunities, these guys would really be stupid (both sides), if they let this go to a shortened season.

 

I'd say, "These guys can't be that idiotic," but this is baseball we're talking about.

 

I'll always be a baseball fan, but many fans are not that bound to staying one.

[Bellhorn04]

That and they don't really push as hard as I think they should for raising the min wage- like doubling it, at least. That's where a lot of players sit for several years, and some never get the golden ticket.

 

Minimum wage is still close to $600 K for major leaguers, though, right? That's a living wage.

 

If they're not good enough to graduate to the higher pay levels, so be it.

 

I just don't see this as a big issue.

 

Arb salaries have certainly been on the rise.

[moonslav59]

Minimum wage is still close to $600 K for major leaguers, though, right? That's a living wage.

 

If they're not good enough to graduate to the higher pay levels, so be it.

 

I just don't see this as a big issue.

 

Arb salaries have certainly been on the rise.

 

In the context of what the mega stars make, $600K is chump change, and if a player only stays in the bigs for a year or two, it is not all that much, when you consider what other players make.

 

I haven't looked, but I'm pretty sure there is a sizeable amount of players making under $1M. I know $1M is a hell of a lot of money, but baseball generate a hell of a lot of money, and it's not like some of these min wage guys are just extras on a movie set grossing millions. They are needed on the field. They spent years perfecting their skill to get to the point where they earned a spot on the 26 man roster.

 

Personally, I'd raise the minor league pay a lot, make the min wage for the 40 man roster $750K and the 26 man $1M.

 

I'd also look at establishing a floor on team player budgets to force cheaper teams to spend more. If they can't still make a profit, then move the team or fold.

 

I think the union focuses too much on getting the select very best players the most they can make- thinking that will trickle down to the moderate and lower-skilled players. In some cases, it does, but only to players who have reached arb or free agency.

 

It is good that the union is pushing to shorten the window before arbs and free agency and maybe take an arb year away, but that is not enough, IMO.

 

Either way, they can't demand too much, of the golden goose will be killed by a work stoppage.

[Bellhorn04]

In the context of what the mega stars make, $600K is chump change, and if a player only stays in the bigs for a year or two, it is not all that much, when you consider what other players make.

 

In the context of what the mega stars make, $1 mill is still chump change.

 

If the player only stays a year or two, it's usually because they're just not good enough.

 

It's free enterprise and capitalism in operation.

[moonslav59]

Back to the Sox and their winter plans.

 

I think there are 4-5 high priority needs and about 3-5 open roster slots after Rule 5's are added and options settled. (I'm counting ERod's slot as open, but JD's filled.)

 

Option A

1. Solid #2 SP'er

2. Solid RP'er (Closer type, if Houck or Whitlock are not to be used here)

3. Depenable pitcher (SP/RP/Swingman)

4. Utility IF'er (like Iggy) who can play 2B and SS.

5. Depth pitching or defensive OF'er (platoon with Renfroe?)

 

Option B

1. Solid #3 SP'er (ERod?)

2. Solid #3 SP'er (assuming Houck & Whitlock stay in the pen)

3. Solid RP'er

4. Utility IF'er (like Iggy) who can play 2B and SS.

 

If we have $30-40M to spend on these 4-5 slots, assuming no trades fill one or two, we should be able to add some quality players.

 

Hopefully, Bloom gets more players like Kike, Renfroe, Whitlock and Iggy than Richards, Perez, Andriese and Marwin. (Ottavino was close to a push.)

 

[moonslav59]

In the context of what the mega stars make, $1 mill is still chump change.

 

If the player only stays a year or two, it's usually because they're just not good enough.

 

It's free enterprise and capitalism in operation.

 

No, it's not. It's only that for free agents.

 

The union and management negotiate the working conditions, and the union could demand higher pay for the lower players, perhaps at the expense of lower wages to the highest paid players.

 

That's all I'm saying.

 

Yes, even $1M is "chump change" within the context of the overall pay structure, but it's a start. Personally, I'd make minor league, 40 man and min wage even higher than I suggested, but the numbers I mentioned would be a step in the right direction and might be realistic goals for a union who cared about this large swath of players.

[Bellhorn04]

No, it's not. It's only that for free agents.

 

Everybody who's good enough and durable enough gets their shot at free agency if that's what they want.