A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Larry Cook]

You are the one saying the word.

 

Nobody said 2020 was the only year of futility under Henry's watch. There was equally extreme words used back when Ben was the GM.

 

Yes, many of us expected "it" to last for more than half of 2019 and up to the point where the team surprised nearly everyone in 2021.

 

Look, I'm fine with admitting 1.5 years is not a "cliff," there I said it, and I did expect it to last much longer. I also did not expect it to start during the 2019 season, so I was wrong on many fronts, including never expecting our playing roster to ever look as bad as it did in 2020.

 

I had low hopes for 2022, and was wrong there, too.

 

I have praised DD for drafting better than expected for the slots he had to pick with, but the highest pick the Sox have ever had gave the farm a big boost, too. I'm not sure anyone foresaw us having 2 top 30 prospects (3 if you want to count Yorke), this quickly. I applaud DD and Bloom for their work on the farm.

 

Our 40 man roster is much deeper than it was in 2020, and hardly any is due to free agency, as we've mostly seen just 1 year deals of low to moderate value.

 

I'm fine with saying the cliff never materialized as most of us envisioned. Not even close, except for just how bad we got- maybe.

 

I agree 100 percent.

 

If we did need a tank year, 2020 was the year to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

You are the one saying the word.

 

Nobody said 2020 was the only year of futility under Henry's watch. There was equally extreme words used back when Ben was the GM.

 

Yes, many of us expected "it" to last for more than half of 2019 and up to the point where the team surprised nearly everyone in 2021.

 

Look, I'm fine with admitting 1.5 years is not a "cliff," there I said it, and I did expect it to last much longer. I also did not expect it to start during the 2019 season, so I was wrong on many fronts, including never expecting our playing roster to ever look as bad as it did in 2020.

 

I had low hopes for 2022, and was wrong there, too.

 

I have praised DD for drafting better than expected for the slots he had to pick with, but the highest pick the Sox have ever had gave the farm a big boost, too. I'm not sure anyone foresaw us having 2 top 30 prospects (3 if you want to count Yorke), this quickly. I applaud DD and Bloom for their work on the farm.

 

Our 40 man roster is much deeper than it was in 2020, and hardly any is due to free agency, as we've mostly seen just 1 year deals of low to moderate value.

 

I'm fine with saying the cliff never materialized as most of us envisioned. Not even close, except for just how bad we got- maybe.

 

2019 had absolutely nothing to do with a cliff.

 

The cliff was .5 years.

[moonslav59]

2019 had absolutely nothing to do with a cliff.

 

The cliff was .5 years.

 

You keep saying expectations were high for 2019, so it doesn't count.

 

Well, expectations were low for 2022, but somehow those expectations don't matter?

 

To me, the "rebuild" or whatever you want to call it, started when the team underperformed in 2019 and ended at the trade deadline (we added) in 2022- 2 calendar years.

Edited March 13, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

It started at the deadline in 2019. You keep saying expectations were high for 2019, so it doesn't count.

 

Well, expectations were low for 2022, but somehow those expectations don't matter.

 

To me, the "rebuild" or whatever you want to call it, started at the trade deadline in 2019 (we dumped) and ended at the trade deadline (we added) in 2022- 2 calendar years.

 

The Sox didn’t dump at the deadline in 2019. They added Andrew Cashner…

[moonslav59]

The Sox didn’t dump at the deadline in 2019. They added Andrew Cashner…

 

True. My mind has been mush.

[Old Red]

The Sox didn’t dump at the deadline in 2019. They added Andrew Cashner…

 

Was pitching good for the O’s, but sucked with the Sox.

[notin]

True. My mind has been mush.

 

Still dealing with a bout of Lockoutitis?

[moonslav59]

Still dealing with a bout of Lockoutitis?

 

My wife thinks I need a check-up.

[moonslav59]

There are only 10 players on the 40 man roster who were on the 40 man roster during the 2019 season (listed in order of 40 man roster seniority):

 

Vaz since 11/12

Bogey 8/13

Barnes 9/14

Sale 12/16

Devers 7/17

JD 2/18

Brasier 7/18

Eovaldi 7/18

Taylor 11/18

DHern 11/18

 

Only 6 were on the 40 man to begin the 2018 season.

Dalbec & Arauz were added after 2019

 

Some pretty major overhaul, here.

 

27 players were added after January 1, 2020!

21 were added after Sept 14, 2020.

13 were added after 2/1/21.

8 have been added after the 2021 season and we still have 1 slot open.

 

 

(Some were in the system but not on the 40 man roster until these dates.)

[moonslav59]

Biggest names left that could help the Sox the most:

 

RP:

K Jensen

C McHugh

R Tepera

A Chafin, R Rodriguez, B Hand, E Marshal, T Rosnethal, A Ottavino, T Clippard

A Bradley, J Nelson, C Martin, T Watson, T Hunter, R Dolis, G Holland

 

SP:

Z Greinke

T Anderson

M Pineda, D Duffy, J Cueto, B Anderson, M Harvey, M Boyd

 

 

2B: nobody

 

OF:

N Castellanos RHB

S Suzuki RHB

Schwarber LHB

Tommy Pham RHB

Jorge Soler RHB

A McCutchen RHB

Kevin Pillar RHB

 

SS (Bogey to 2B?): Correa or Story

 

DH (Trade JD?): Nelson Cruz

[Deja Doh]

It's going to be a long season. If we can get to 80 wins that will be a huge achievement.

[Bellhorn04]

You keep saying expectations were high for 2019, so it doesn't count.

 

Well, expectations were low for 2022, but somehow those expectations don't matter?

To me, the "rebuild" or whatever you want to call it, started when the team underperformed in 2019 and ended at the trade deadline (we added) in 2022- 2 calendar years.

 

Expectations for 2021 were uncertain, not necessarily low.

 

I think notin's answer to all this was about right: the Red Sox have been rebuilding, just not at the MLB level…

 

It was our farm that needed to be rebuilt.

[Bellhorn04]

It's going to be a long season. If we can get to 80 wins that will be a huge achievement.

 

Jeezus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Expectations for 2021 were uncertain, not necessarily low.

 

I think notin's answer to all this was about right: the Red Sox have been rebuilding, just not at the MLB level…

 

It was our farm that needed to be rebuilt.

 

... and our egos; at least we're all back to know-somethings (I used to think I was a know-it-all, then Mookie got traded and I became a no, nothing).

[Bellhorn04]

... and our egos; at least we're all back to know-somethings (I used to think I was a know-it-all, then Mookie got traded and I became a no, nothing).

 

Mookie being traded was a shock, but it was actually the culmination of several years of uneasiness about his future with the team. The longer it went with no resolution, the more it seemed headed for a bad outcome for fans.

 

And after 2018 the team basically told fans they'd like to keep Betts, Bogaerts and Sale, but it wasn't realistic.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie being traded was a shock, but it was actually the culmination of several years of uneasiness about his future with the team. The longer it went with no resolution, the more it seemed headed for a bad outcome for fans.

 

And after 2018 the team basically told fans they'd like to keep Betts, Bogaerts and Sale, but it wasn't realistic.

 

I remember hearing Dombrowski say, "We can't keep them all," and hoping that didn't mean he knew we were losing Mookie.

 

But I like Mookie more now that I read he banned cellphones from his wedding reception, and that JBJ only found out he was traded back to Boston in a special phone room.

[Old Red]

Mookie being traded was a shock, but it was actually the culmination of several years of uneasiness about his future with the team. The longer it went with no resolution, the more it seemed headed for a bad outcome for fans.

 

And after 2018 the team basically told fans they'd like to keep Betts, Bogaerts and Sale, but it wasn't realistic.

 

Mookie basically got traded, because he didn’t want to stay. Boggy wants to stay, but I don’t know if that will happen either.

[moonslav59]

Expectations for 2021 were uncertain, not necessarily low.

 

I think notin's answer to all this was about right: the Red Sox have been rebuilding, just not at the MLB level…

 

It was our farm that needed to be rebuilt.

 

I guess it’s a matter of perspective. Our biggest signings were a career bench guy in Kike and Garrett Richards and almost everyone on 1 year deals. Last winters deals screamed of rebuild at the ML level and most fans and media agreed.

 

The fact that we did so well does not change the early perceptions. IMO

[Old Red]

I remember hearing Dombrowski say, "We can't keep them all," and hoping that didn't mean he knew we were losing Mookie.

 

But I like Mookie more now that I read he banned cellphones from his wedding reception, and that JBJ only found out he was traded back to Boston in a special phone room.

 

Mookie was a fan favorite, and a great player, but I wouldn’t want to still have to pay him all that money for 11 more years.

[Old Red]

I guess it’s a matter of perspective. Our biggest signings were a career bench guy in Kike and Garrett Richards and almost everyone on 1 year deals. Last winters deals screamed of rebuild at the ML level and most fans and media agreed.

 

The fact that we did so well does not change the early perceptions. IMO

 

Boggy, Devers, JD, Duggy, E Rod, and Sale coming back to me is not any kind of rebuild, and before last season started I expected them to be a decent team. Throw 2020 right out the window, and there was still plenty of talent on the team to be decent plus JD was getting his binky iPad back.

[moonslav59]

Boggy, Devers, JD, Duggy, E Rod, and Sale coming back to me is not any kind of rebuild, and before last season started I expected them to be a decent team. Throw 2020 right out the window, and there was still plenty of talent on the team to be decent plus JD was getting his binky iPad back.

 

I didn’t say we’d suck, and I also said it wasn’t a “cliff year,” but look who we added from the putrid 2020 team: they were rebuild type signings. Even Ottavino was just a 1 year bridge addition and had shown signs of decline. We traded Beni for 5 prospects. We signed…

Richards

Kike

Perez

Renfroe (non tendered by another team)

Marwin

Sawamura

Andriese

 

Nobody viewed these signings and moves as more than stop gap additions and only the return of Sale and ERod offered the hope we could win 80-85 games.

 

We were not even close to being favourites to win it all and barely had hopes of making the wild card play in game before 2021. Read the posts after the sweep by the O’s early in the season and tell me how much hope and promise the fans had for the MLB roster at that point.

 

Let’s not kid ourselves.

 

Sure there were less than a handful of posters with rosy glasses, but we all knew we were still a year or two away from greatness. Also, while many poo-poi’s our deadline and later moves, can everyone agree we make the playoffs without Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Davis and miracle spirts by Richards and others?

[Bellhorn04]

I guess it’s a matter of perspective. Our biggest signings were a career bench guy in Kike and Garrett Richards and almost everyone on 1 year deals. Last winters deals screamed of rebuild at the ML level and most fans and media agreed.

 

The fact that we did so well does not change the early perceptions. IMO

 

A lot of our 2018 core was still in place - Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Bogey, Devers, JDM, Vazquez, Cora.

 

My take is that virtually all teams are in constant flux now because of all the payroll issues etc.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s not kid ourselves.

 

Sure there were less than a handful of posters with rosy glasses, but we all knew we were still a year or two away from greatness. Also, while many poo-poi’s our deadline and later moves, can everyone agree we make the playoffs without Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Davis and miracle spirts by Richards and others?

 

"Greatness"? To me that's an irrelevant term. A team that could make the playoffs and maybe get past the first round? Yes, I think a lot of people thought or hoped that much.

 

What does "greatness" mean anymore when the last team to repeat was the 2000 Yanks?

[Bellhorn04]

None of which is to say that Bloom hasn't done a fine job after coming into a tricky situation. I think he has.

[Old Red]

I didn’t say we’d suck, and I also said it wasn’t a “cliff year,” but look who we added from the putrid 2020 team: they were rebuild type signings. Even Ottavino was just a 1 year bridge addition and had shown signs of decline. We traded Beni for 5 prospects. We signed…

Richards

Kike

Perez

Renfroe (non tendered by another team)

Marwin

Sawamura

Andriese

 

Nobody viewed these signings and moves as more than stop gap additions and only the return of Sale and ERod offered the hope we could win 80-85 games.

 

We were not even close to being favourites to win it all and barely had hopes of making the wild card play in game before 2021. Read the posts after the sweep by the O’s early in the season and tell me how much hope and promise the fans had for the MLB roster at that point.

 

Let’s not kid ourselves.

 

Sure there were less than a handful of posters with rosy glasses, but we all knew we were still a year or two away from greatness. Also, while many poo-poi’s our deadline and later moves, can everyone agree we make the playoffs without Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Davis and miracle spirts by Richards and others?

 

There is no doubt the 2020 team was kind of split. You had some real good players, and you had some who really sucked, and JD was one of the ones that sucked, but there was enough talent to start the season in 2021 to think they could be decent, and that was not counting on Sale. Getting E Rod back was huge. The bargain basement signings were stop gap last year, and this year too, but I don’t think the Red Sox are in any kind of rebuild. Next year could be the major rebuild.

[notin]

I didn’t say we’d suck, and I also said it wasn’t a “cliff year,” but look who we added from the putrid 2020 team: they were rebuild type signings. Even Ottavino was just a 1 year bridge addition and had shown signs of decline. We traded Beni for 5 prospects. We signed…

Richards

Kike

Perez

Renfroe (non tendered by another team)

Marwin

Sawamura

Andriese

 

Nobody viewed these signings and moves as more than stop gap additions and only the return of Sale and ERod offered the hope we could win 80-85 games.

 

We were not even close to being favourites to win it all and barely had hopes of making the wild card play in game before 2021. Read the posts after the sweep by the O’s early in the season and tell me how much hope and promise the fans had for the MLB roster at that point.

 

Let’s not kid ourselves.

 

Sure there were less than a handful of posters with rosy glasses, but we all knew we were still a year or two away from greatness. Also, while many poo-poi’s our deadline and later moves, can everyone agree we make the playoffs without Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Davis and miracle spirts by Richards and others?

 

Davis was worthless. But Hansel Robles had his moments…

Edited March 13, 2022 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Davis? Did you mean we miss the postseason without Austin Davis? Or is it that you just can’t spell Robles?

 

He said Davis. Can't be unsaid.

[notin]

He said Davis. Can't be unsaid.

 

Well, Davis is the one who is still here…

[moonslav59]

A lot of our 2018 core was still in place - Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Bogey, Devers, JDM, Vazquez, Cora.

 

My take is that virtually all teams are in constant flux now because of all the payroll issues etc.

 

I've agreed 2021 was not a cliff year, but almost all of us felt we still had some rebuilding to do to get to strong competitiveness status.

 

Yes, many teams go through this and are not considered in full blown "rebuild mode," but look at the roster beyond the big 6 (Bogey, Devers, Sale, ERod, Eovaldi and JD), plus big questions lingered around 2-4 of those 6. Sale was not expected back until July. ERod was a big Q mark. JD, was a bit of one, and Eovaldi ended up pitching his first full season in 6 or 7 years.

 

Hardly anybody had faith in Pivetta, Richards, Perez and the whole pen- top to bottom. (Whitlock was a god send.)

 

Many felt Kike could not play FT, Marwin was a joke, Dalbec was a huge Q mark as late as July, and the Cordero experiment went horribly wrong. Who thought Renfroe would do that well?

 

BTW, many bad teams have a "core" of 6 players, and it's the other 20 that make them bad. The O's have Mullins, Means, Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays and Santander. They are clearly in worse than rebuild mode.

 

On May 31st, Marwin was 7th on the team in PAs- just 4 away from Kike and 9 away from Vaz, who was under .650. Dalbec was 9th and under .650. Cordero was 10th in PAs. Richards was 2nd in IP, Pivetta 3rd, Perez 5th, Andries 6th and the staff as a whole was generally thought to be over performing.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I've agreed 2021 was not a cliff year, but almost all of us felt we still had some rebuilding to do to get to strong competitiveness status.

 

"Cliff year" - you made that up, didn't you?