A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

It's even worse for his career!

 

-20.5 in 187 innings at 2B

 

He is a plus, elsewhere:

 

+18.4 at 3B (35 innings)

 

+17.2 at AA (112 innings), which is where he may be most needed.

 

AA or SS?

[moonslav59]

AA or SS?

 

SS. My finger slipped.

[mvp 78]

SS. My finger slipped.

 

It's weird that he's so much better at SS than 2b. Either it's the comfort level on that side of the field, or it's just SSS noise.

 

However, if he can't be an adequate defensive UTIL guy, there's no room on the 40 man for him. His bat just hasn't developed.

[notin]

I didn't think that much of Arauz, but that number is UGLY.

 

 

UZR/150 is scaled up, but if a player isn’t playing much and has limited action when he is on the field, getting a negative UZR isn’t that difficult. And then simply scaling it to a larger number of games just exacerbates a potential inaccuracy…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy.

 

However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.[/b]

 

Some of us have also been pointing this out about Bloom since he got here. What if the new, post-CBA tactic is to only spend "big" on buying out arb years of pre-arb players... like the Rays did with Wander? Maybe the first longterm contract Bloom offers is to Casas a year from now (presumably, after Tris proves he's a big leaguer), and then Bello, Yorke, Mayer, etc. whenever they arrive...

 

How cool would Bloom look in two or three years if he has his entire Red Sox core of sustained contenders locked up for the next decade for less money combined than the Yankees will owe Correa?

[mvp 78]

UZR/150 is scaled up, but if a player isn’t playing much and has limited action when he is on the field, getting a negative UZR isn’t that difficult. And then simply scaling it to a larger number of games just exacerbates a potential inaccuracy…

 

That's why i mentioned SSS noise in the follow up post.

[mvp 78]

Arauz did have a -3 DRS at 2b in 2020. I don't believe DRS is scaled up.

[moonslav59]

It's weird that he's so much better at SS than 2b. Either it's the comfort level on that side of the field, or it's just SSS noise.

 

However, if he can't be an adequate defensive UTIL guy, there's no room on the 40 man for him. His bat just hasn't developed.

 

I totally agree.

 

He's up there on my next-to-be DFA'd list.

[notin]

Arauz did have a -3 DRS at 2b in 2020. I don't believe DRS is scaled up.

 

 

No, but I think it is against a league average. So a low total of innings would affect it in that case…

[moonslav59]

Red Sox sign to minor league deals... (both invited to ST'ing camp, if there ever is one.)

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/red-sox-sign-silvino-bracho-darin-gillies-to-minor-league-deals.html

 

Silvino Bracho

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brachsi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral

 

Darin Gilles

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gillie000dar&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral

 

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Team with 4 or More Years of Team Control:

 

SP: Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Winckowski, Bello, Mata, Groome, Song, Crawford, T Ward, V Santos

RP: Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, DavisValdez, Bazardo, Feltman, W. Gonzalez, C Murphy, B Walter, F German

C: Wong, R Hernandez, Hickey, K Cottam

1B: Dalbec, Casas, Kavadas

2B: Yorke, Downs, Koss

3B: Bineleas, Jordan, Potts,

SS: Mayer, Arauz, Hamilton, Bonaci, Lugo

LF: Duran, T McDonough

CF: Jimenez, Bleis

RF: Rosario, C Rafaela, Decker

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has this for the depth chart...

 

https://soxprospects.com/org.htm

 

(I tweaked it a little to allow some players to be at multiple positions.)

 

SP: Eovaldi, Sale, Paxton (injured), Hill, Pivetta, Wacha, Houck

Seabold, Crawford, Winckowski, KHart, BKeller, BMata (injured), BBello, J Groome, TWard, C Murphy, V Santo

 

RP: Whitlock, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, Sawamura, DHern, ADavis

Valdez, Bazardo, MFeliz, TDanish, SBracho, ZKelly, TCole, DGiles, KOrt, DFeltman, JSchreiber, CSimpson, GHartlied, FGerman

 

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

Wong, R Hernandez, Madden, KCottam, R Baldwin (NHickey)

 

1B: Dalbec, Casas, Kike, RRamos, TReed

2B: Kike H, Arroyo, Downs, Arauz, YSanchezz, G Williams, CCannon

3B: Devers, Dalbec, Kike, Potts, Howlett, Binelas (Jordan)

SS: Bogaerts, Arauz, Arroyo, Kike, Downs, Fitzgerald, Hamilton (Koss, Bonachi, Mayer)

LF: Verdugo, Duran, JD, Cordero, Castellanos

CF: Kike, JBJ, Verdugo, Duran, Refsnyder, Rosario (Jimenez)

RF: JBJ, Kike, Verdugo, Duran, JD, Stewart, Mieses

DH: JD, Dalbec, Duran

 

[Nick]

Red Sox Team with 4 or More Years of Team Control:

 

SP: Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Winckowski, Bello, Mata, Groome, Song, Crawford, T Ward, V Santos

RP: Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, DavisValdez, Bazardo, Feltman, W. Gonzalez, C Murphy, B Walter, F German

C: Wong, R Hernandez, Hickey, K Cottam

1B: Dalbec, Casas, Kavadas

2B: Yorke, Downs, Koss

3B: Bineleas, Jordan, Potts,

SS: Mayer, Arauz, Hamilton, Bonaci, Lugo

LF: Duran, T McDonough

CF: Jimenez, Bleis

RF: Rosario, C Rafaela, Decker

 

I'm pretty sure Sawamura has two more years if the club exercise option for 2023. Probably a long shot but Sale does have an opt out after this year.

I don't see Xander on your list so Sale shouldn't be either.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure Sawamura has two more years if the club exercise option for 2023. Probably a long shot but Sale does have an opt out after this year.

I don't see Xander on your list so Sale shouldn't be either.

 

Sawamura has arb years after his contract runs out, per soxprospects.com.

 

True on Sale having an opt out after 2022-same as Bogey.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox Team with 4 or More Years of Team Control:

 

SP: Sale, Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Winckowski, Bello, Mata, Groome, Song, Crawford, T Ward, V Santos

RP: Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, DavisValdez, Bazardo, Feltman, W. Gonzalez, C Murphy, B Walter, F German

C: Wong, R Hernandez, Hickey, K Cottam

1B: Dalbec, Casas, Kavadas

2B: Yorke, Downs, Koss

3B: Bineleas, Jordan, Potts,

SS: Mayer, Arauz, Hamilton, Bonaci, Lugo

LF: Duran, T McDonough

CF: Jimenez, Bleis

RF: Rosario, C Rafaela, Decker

 

Very weird list when you are adding Kavadas, Binelas, Bonaci, Lugo, McDonough, Bleis, Rafaela, Decker. These aren't 40 man guys. Most of them aren't close to helping this team in 22 or 23.

[Nick]

Sawamura has arb years after his contract runs out, per soxprospects.com.

 

True on Sale having an opt out after 2022-same as Bogey.

 

Good call on Sawamura....just because a guy has a contract doesn't mean he doesn't have arbitration years left. My bad. Foreigners...

[moonslav59]

Very weird list when you are adding Kavadas, Binelas, Bonaci, Lugo, McDonough, Bleis, Rafaela, Decker. These aren't 40 man guys. Most of them aren't close to helping this team in 22 or 23.

 

Yes, I got a bit carried away and listed some notable players not in the 2022 mix, but still on their organizational depth chart.

[moonslav59]

Good call on Sawamura....just because a guy has a contract doesn't mean he doesn't have arbitration years left. My bad. Foreigners...

 

I was surprised to see that, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What will be Bloom's first move, first transaction? Free agent signing or trade? I predict blockbuster with Oakland... and it may hurt.

[moonslav59]

What will be Bloom's first move, first transaction? Free agent signing or trade? I predict blockbuster with Oakland... and it may hurt.

 

Signing Suzuki

[Old Red]

What will be Bloom's first move, first transaction? Free agent signing or trade? I predict blockbuster with Oakland... and it may hurt.

 

Who you going to trade to get anything good back?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who you going to trade to get anything good back?

 

Top 10 prospects not named Mayer or Casas.

[Nick]

Top 10 prospects not named Mayer or Casas.

 

No to trading away top prospects. We have some money to sign FA.

 

Luxury Tax at $230M. I think we're slightly above $200M. Also we'd be a first time offender in 2022 so going over may not be a bad thing. Couple that with expiring contracts after the season means we can be little more aggressive.

 

#1 priority for me is Mr. Suzuki.

[moonslav59]

No to trading away top prospects. We have some money to sign FA.

 

Luxury Tax at $230M. I think we're slightly above $200M. Also we'd be a first time offender in 2022 so going over may not be a bad thing. Couple that with expiring contracts after the season means we can be little more aggressive.

 

#1 priority for me is Mr. Suzuki.

 

Did the tax rate go way up? (Not the level, but the % TAX)

[moonslav59]

No to trading away top prospects. We have some money to sign FA.

 

Luxury Tax at $230M. I think we're slightly above $200M. Also we'd be a first time offender in 2022 so going over may not be a bad thing. Couple that with expiring contracts after the season means we can be little more aggressive.

 

#1 priority for me is Mr. Suzuki.

 

cots has us at $178.2M counting Price and the medical payments. If this is accurate, we have over $40M to spend and stay under.

 

(Had we not traded for JBJ, we could have signed Correa & Suzuki.)

[Bellhorn04]

(Had we not traded for JBJ, we could have signed Correa & Suzuki.)

 

LOL it's incredible how costly that trade was.

[moonslav59]

LOL it's incredible how costly that trade was.

 

I'm glad you saw the humor.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No to trading away top prospects. We have some money to sign FA.

 

Luxury Tax at $230M. I think we're slightly above $200M. Also we'd be a first time offender in 2022 so going over may not be a bad thing. Couple that with expiring contracts after the season means we can be little more aggressive.

 

#1 priority for me is Mr. Suzuki.

 

I agree with all your points but will be shocked if Chaim Bloom does. It should be exciting watching GMs trying to jam three months worth of hot stove into one week. Some deals and signings may happen fast, because they were already agreed upon behind the scenes and just waiting to be announced.

 

The Sox need Carlos Rodon just as much as they need Suzuki. Can a $100 mil land both? Beyond Rodon, there really aren't other free agent pitchers I'm interested in at the prices they will demand. Solid young pitchers will certainly change teams, but at the cost of prospects.

[Old Red]

cots has us at $178.2M counting Price and the medical payments. If this is accurate, we have over $40M to spend and stay under.

 

(Had we not traded for JBJ, we could have signed Correa & Suzuki.)

 

I still think the big reshaping of the roster will come after next year when there will be lots of money coming off the books, and even more if Bogey walks. Then there is still the big question on what happens with Raffy.

[Bellhorn04]

cots has us at $178.2M counting Price and the medical payments. If this is accurate, we have over $40M to spend and stay under.

 

(Had we not traded for JBJ, we could have signed Correa & Suzuki.)

 

Correction: Cot's presently has us at 207.7 million, 22.3 million under the threshold.

 

You have to look at the CBT numbers on the right.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Bellhorn04