A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Hugh2]

It’s not the roster spot that’s the problem. Teams like the Orioles and Pirates often struggle just to get 25 major leaguers.

 

The problem is keeping the player on your MLB roster and not only taking away a year of development but coinciding that with bringing the same player one year closer to free agency. Heck one year closer to first year if arbitration.

 

I think a lot of times these teams realize they’re probably just better off staying the course with their own farm players…

 

This.

 

You either play Jimenez or you sit him. Either way you’re ruining his development. Teams often select guys in the rule 5 who they believe can help a mlb club.

 

Who takes we takes Jimemez and sits him on the bench all year?

 

Who takes Jimenez and watches him ops .350 3 levels higher than he should be?

 

If he was a pitcher, who had one elite pitch and a team figures he can get a guy or two out here and there while developing his stuff in the bullpen that type of jump is possible. But he’s a position player with raw talent. Not refined talent, but raw talent. He needs consistency at an appropriate level to develop.

 

Again, he’s not getting drafted.

[moonslav59]

This.

 

You either play Jimenez or you sit him. Either way you’re ruining his development. Teams often select guys in the rule 5 who they believe can help a mlb club.

 

Who takes we takes Jimemez and sits him on the bench all year?

 

Who takes Jimenez and watches him ops .350 3 levels higher than he should be?

 

If he was a pitcher, who had one elite pitch and a team figures he can get a guy or two out here and there while developing his stuff in the bullpen that type of jump is possible. But he’s a position player with raw talent. Not refined talent, but raw talent. He needs consistency at an appropriate level to develop.

 

Again, he’s not getting drafted.

 

1. Many teams are in tank mode.

2. The 26th slot is a luxury that was not there before.

3. Jimenez can play as a defensive replacement and could even get some ABs, although I agree, this isn't the ideal way to develop a player in great need of a full development year.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but circumstances have changed in the last two years.

 

I do think Feltman will be selected, because he can pitch in the bigs, next season.

 

Santos is kind of like Jimenez.

 

Cottam may be picked just because good catchers are scarce, but some GM will have to really like him.

[Hugh2]

1. Many teams are in tank mode.

2. The 26th slot is a luxury that was not there before.

3. Jimenez can play as a defensive replacement and could even get some ABs, although I agree, this isn't the ideal way to develop a player in great need of a full development year.

 

I'm not saying it will happen, but circumstances have changed in the last two years.

 

I do think Feltman will be selected, because he can pitch in the bigs, next season.

 

Santos is kind of like Jimenez.

 

Cottam may be picked just because good catchers are scarce, but some GM will have to really like him.

 

It’s not ideal, it’s counterproductive. You’re an unrefined toolsy prospect in A ball. You’re not getting better by being a defensive sub and bench at bats. Jimenez needs at bats at a comparable level to develop.

 

Teams do what you’re talking about with a guy at the AAA level, doing it to Jimenez would only stunt his growth and waste a roster spot. It’s not a real risk losing him, it’s not logical that a team stashes him for a full year.

[moonslav59]

It’s not ideal, it’s counterproductive. You’re an unrefined toolsy prospect in A ball. You’re not getting better by being a defensive sub and bench at bats. Jimenez needs at bats at a comparable level to develop.

 

Teams do what you’re talking about with a guy at the AAA level, doing it to Jimenez would only stunt his growth and waste a roster spot. It’s not a real risk losing him, it’s not logical that a team stashes him for a full year.

 

I admitted it is not ideal for developing a player, but the whole "wasting a roster spot" has new meaning now.

1. There is a 26th slot that was never there for over 100 years until 2020.

2. Several teams are in obvious tank mode and are looking for prized young players who might help 2-4 years from now.

 

I'm not sure any GM will see Jimenez in that light and value him enough to let him hardly develop at all for one year, just on the hopes he can improve greatly afterwards, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Many "experts" had us projected to protect him. Why?

 

I agree on stunted growth but the wasted roster spot on a team like the O's and Pirates is mute.

 

Hell, he might already be close to as good as their 26th man.

[Hugh2]

I admitted it is not ideal for developing a player, but the whole "wasting a roster spot" has new meaning now.

1. There is a 26th slot that was never there for over 100 years until 2020.

2. Several teams are in obvious tank mode and are looking for prized young players who might help 2-4 years from now.

 

I'm not sure any GM will see Jimenez in that light and value him enough to let him hardly develop at all for one year, just on the hopes he can improve greatly afterwards, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Many "experts" had us projected to protect him. Why?

 

I agree on stunted growth but the wasted roster spot on a team like the O's and Pirates is mute.

 

Hell, he might already be close to as good as their 26th man.

 

The point you keep coming back to is purely hypothetical, how many GMs (since rosters expanded) have elected to reach for a low A player?

 

Regardless, 26 man, 25 man, 100 man, it doesn’t change how athletes develop. If a team likes Jimenez that much, why are they going to stunt his growth and ruin his value and future?

 

If a team liked Jimenez that much they’re just going to trade for him.

[Hugh2]

Jimenez is not even close to as good as the 26th man on any teams roster.

 

Do we think the gap in talent between low A, High A, AA, and AAA is marginal?

 

Take any team, give me there worse position player in the bigs and he’ll put up a better OPS in A ball than Jimenez did.

 

The gap in talent at levels isn’t make believe. So it’s not just about wasting a roster spot, it’s about wasting a rule 5 pick.

[moonslav59]

The point you keep coming back to is purely hypothetical, how many GMs (since rosters expanded) have elected to reach for a low A player?

 

 

I think it has happened.

 

Again, I'm not saying someone will select Jimenez. For one thing, there are probably more promising single A players available than him. I'm just saying, things have changed from the "normal" way people look at their rosters, and some teams are totally tanking for 2022. Hell, a couple teams actually have no guaranteed contracts on the books, right now and just a few arb players.

 

Teams are looking 2-5 years down the road and that extra roster slot is enticing.

[moonslav59]

Regardless, 26 man, 25 man, 100 man, it doesn’t change how athletes develop. If a team likes Jimenez that much, why are they going to stunt his growth and ruin his value and future?

 

You might not like my answer, but I explained why I think they might.

 

I don't think sitting him "ruins his future." He will be playing in ST'ing, as a defensive replacement, getting a few ABs, and practicing with the big team.

 

It's not like he's sitting on a couch all year.

 

Again, I just said don't be surprised if he gets picked.

 

Why not answer some of my questions?

 

Why did many experts say he might be protected, if they felt there was zero chance he'd get selected?

 

BTW, just this past year, Akil Baddoo, who hit .683 in A ball in his last season, was selected and even played a lot. It does happen.

 

It might happen again.

 

MIGHT!

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

I think it has happened.

 

Again, I'm not saying someone will select Jimenez. For one thing, there are probably more promising single A players available than him. I'm just saying, things have changed from the "normal" way people look at their rosters, and some teams are totally tanking for 2022. Hell, a couple teams actually have no guaranteed contracts on the books, right now and just a few arb players.

 

Teams are looking 2-5 years down the road and that extra roster slot is enticing.

 

I think I’m failing to make my point so I’ll be more direct. There’s almost a 100% chance someone like Jimenezs development gets screwed up playing at the MLB level.

 

If what you’re saying materializes it’ll happen with a pitcher, not a hitter. Player development hasn’t changed, the gap in talent between low a and MLB hasn’t changed. No one is wasting a spot for Jimenez in 2022, and if they did it would be to work out a trade.

[moonslav59]

 

If a team liked Jimenez that much they’re just going to trade for him.

 

Selecting him costs nothing, and their 24th to 26th men suck anyway.

 

It's just about the lost year of development that works against selecting him. That may be harsh enough to scare every GM off, but only one is needed to surprise you.

[Hugh2]

It’s not happening Moon. It’s not one of your greatest takes, you don’t have to defend everyone.

[Hugh2]

The fact that something could happen, or that something seldom happens is weak.

 

Think of it this way, you’re not going to pitch Raphael Devers a healthy diet of fastballs down the middle because sometimes he doesn’t hit them. Baseball is a game of the sum of all its parts, roster construction is no different.

 

Is it plausible what you’re saying bears fruit, and I’m being a little extreme calling it impossible? Yes, but again, why pitch Devers down the middle. It’s extremely unlikely Gilberto doesn’t get selected, I would be more worried about losing guys closer to the majors.

 

Let’s think about why the rule 5 draft exists, to prevent teams from stashing talent and ensuring mlb talent reaches the majors. That’s a two way street which is why teams have to keep a guy on their rosters.

 

Let’s also consider not all players are created equal, and not everyone’s progression is linear and equal as well. One .750 a ball hitter is not equivalent to another .750 hitter. Some guys may be closer to the majors than others

 

Gilberto is specifically considered a very raw prospect with more tools than production right now. He’s the type of prospect you dream on but who specifically needs lots of developmental time to develop.

 

In the rare occasions that players get selected and make the jump they almost certainly do not fit Gilbertos profile.

[moonslav59]

It’s not happening Moon. It’s not one of your greatest takes, you don’t have to defend everyone.

 

I'm not saying it's even likely to happen, but things have changed a lot in 2 years. I just said don't be surprised- not "I think he will get picked."

 

You still don't answer my question.

 

Here's another one...

 

What was Baddoo's profile?

[moonslav59]

I think leaving 3 slots open is pretty telling. I don't think it means we will be keeping many from this list on the 40 man:

 

Potts

Rosario

Plawecki

Aruaz

Valdez

Davis

 

I think it means we might add a player or two off waivers or the Rule 5 draft plus sign or trade for 3-4 players.

[notin]

It’s not happening Moon. It’s not one of your greatest takes, you don’t have to defend everyone.

 

I wouldn’t say there is no chance Jimenez gets taken. He’s not in that much different of a position than Akil Baddoo was last year.

 

Likely? No. Impossible? Also, no…

[moonslav59]

I wouldn’t say there is no chance Jimenez gets taken. He’s not in that much different of a position than Akil Baddoo was last year.

 

Likely? No. Impossible? Also, no…

 

I agree it's not likely, and there is probably a better single A player left unprotected from another team, but I'm just saying conditions are ripe for a few teams to do things we don't normally see done.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree it's not likely, and there is probably a better single A player left unprotected from another team, but I'm just saying conditions are ripe for a few teams to do things we don't normally see done.

 

That, plus there ain't much to talk about.

[Hugh2]

I wouldn’t say there is no chance Jimenez gets taken. He’s not in that much different of a position than Akil Baddoo was last year.

 

Likely? No. Impossible? Also, no…

 

I already critiqued my position. Admittedly I was being hyperbolic, highly unlikely is more accurately. It certainly does not command this level of conversation.

 

A singular example doesn’t move me, guys like Jimenez being taken every year does.

 

Even if that was the case, this would not be the year for it. We’re still seeing the residual effects of COVID-19 and the lost year. There will be a plethora of talent with a closer proximity to the bigs than Jimenez. I would be shocked if he was picked, I will eat my socks if he’s picked and sticks.

[moonslav59]

 

A singular example doesn’t move me, guys like Jimenez being taken every year does.

 

Yes, as far as I know a singular example, but Baddoo was taken 3rd and was the Twins 13th ranked prospect.

 

Also, since the 26th man was added, a single A player has been drafted every year... LOL!

 

1 out of 18 players taken was a single A player.

 

I'm still waiting for you to answer my question. I have responded to yours.

 

Bell is right, What else is there to talk about?

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Mike Groopman is joining the Red Sox organization as an assistant general manager, per Chad Jennings and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Groopman was previously with the Brewers as VP of International Scouting and Player Personnel.

 

After short stints with the Reds and Mets, Groopman was hired by the Royals in 2008 and ended up staying for a decade, before moving to Milwaukee in 2017. When he joined Kansas City, the club was in the middle of a years-long tank job that ultimately proved fruitful, as they had four consecutive seasons of .500 or above from 2013 to 2016, which included back-to-back trips to the World Series, losing to the Giants in 2014 but then defeating the Mets in 2015. Since Groopman came to the Brewers, they have also had a nice run of success, having just made the postseason for a fourth straight year.

 

Of course, front offices are comprised of dozens of employees and no individual can take full responsibility for a club’s successes or failures. Still, the fact that Groopman has been given this new job and new title shows that his work is well regarded in the industry.

 

[moonslav59]

They've updated BTV values over the last few weeks. Here are a few changes I've noticed:

 

Sale went from a negative to positive value (+12)

Bello rose to 10

Pivetta up to 9

Jimenez went from over 10 to 2.3

 

Notables:

Renfroe & Vaz remain at 1.6 each

Sawamura -1.8

Barnes -4.9

JD -9.6

 

[moonslav59]

Sox Exercise Alex Cora's 2023-2024 Option.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox Exercise Alex Cora's 2023-2024 Option.

 

Is this the first expenditure of the Red Sox' offseason? If so, it is appropriate, because it all starts with AC.

[moonslav59]

Is this the first expenditure of the Red Sox' offseason? If so, it is appropriate, because it all starts with AC.

 

Actually, accepting Vaz's option was the first chosen expenditure. (JD's was not up to them.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Actually, accepting Vaz's option was the first chosen expenditure. (JD's was not up to them.)

 

Good call... on your part and Bloom's. At this point in his career, I view Vaz as overrated as a catcher, but underrated as a hitter (crappy stats, but has delivered in big spots -- many to the opposite-field -- since the '18 postseason). Plus, without a catcher, all Red Sox pitches will bounce to the backstop.

[moonslav59]

Good call... on your part and Bloom's. At this point in his career, I view Vaz as overrated as a catcher, but underrated as a hitter (crappy stats, but has delivered in big spots -- many to the opposite-field -- since the '18 postseason). Plus, without a catcher, all Red Sox pitches will bounce to the backstop.

 

His hitting took a big dive in 2021. I hope that changes, next year.

 

I won't repeat my views on the rest of his game, but BTV has him as a plus 1.6, so he is doing something right.

 

Catchers are hard to find. Between Wong and Hernandez, we may develop a decent replacement, assuming Vaz will not be extended beyond 2022.

[Hugh2]

Yes, as far as I know a singular example, but Baddoo was taken 3rd and was the Twins 13th ranked prospect.

 

Also, since the 26th man was added, a single A player has been drafted every year... LOL!

 

1 out of 18 players taken was a single A player.

 

I'm still waiting for you to answer my question. I have responded to yours.

 

Bell is right, What else is there to talk about?

 

1.) What question are you talking about? I apologize but I just don't really care to scroll back, ask again and I promise I will answer.

 

2.) How many of those "single A" players are LOW A Position players?

 

Why are we talking about Jiminez so much? could it be because of his prospect ranking? If this did happen to the Sox system with a lower level prospect my guess would be a team takes someone like Ceddanne Rafaela, who would add more value to a MLB team now because he can field his position great.

[moonslav59]

1.) What question are you talking about? I apologize but I just don't really care to scroll back, ask again and I promise I will answer.

 

2.) How many of those "single A" players are LOW A Position players?

 

Why are we talking about Jiminez so much? could it be because of his prospect ranking? If this did happen to the Sox system with a lower level prospect my guess would be a team takes someone like Ceddanne Rafaela, who would add more value to a MLB team now because he can field his position great.

 

1) The question was, "Why did so many baseball people talk about protecting Jimenez as a real possibility, if they felt like he had close to zero chance of being selected?

 

2) 100% of those single A players selected were position players (Baddoo).

 

3) I'm only still talking about Jimenez, because I'm responding to replies and comments made about an original post where I said he "MIGHT" get taken. I don't even think he will get taken. It seems like I think the odds are higher than you and notin, but that is why the discussion has continued- that and because what else is there to talks about?

 

My point was more about the general state of MLB, now. The added roster spot. The tanking teams looking 3-6 years down the road. It was not really meant to be about the merits of Jimenez alone, but more about how I think guys like him, and I have said others are probably better options than him, might be selected more than we have seen before.

[jacksonianmarch]

I remember when the Padres selected Luis Torrens from the Yanks. Kid was coming off shoulder surgery and hadn’t played above long season A ball. It ruined his development

[moonslav59]

I remember when the Padres selected Luis Torrens from the Yanks. Kid was coming off shoulder surgery and hadn’t played above long season A ball. It ruined his development

 

It's hard to prove he would have been any good had they not selected him.